Summary
NFL Buddha makes recommendations based on perceived anomalies in the Money Line and offers suggestions as to selecting outright winners. Applicability to Point Spread wagering is uncorrelated and we advocate exercising caution in attempting to extrapolate these selections to types of wagers other than STRAIGHT UP WINNERS.
Mission Statement
NFL Buddha aims to provide you with what we see to be the pertinent factors which are most likely to influence the outcome of any given contest and to present you with what we see as the best value in particular matches given those factors and the betting odds.
Our Philosophy
We base our philosophy on the premise that for the most part any team can win any game. The NFL has thousands of players to choose from every year and very good players can stay around for over 15 years hence to simply make a 53 man roster is quite and achievement and most every player who does is an extremely good football player.
Our View
Football at its highest level is more about mental toughness than anything else and the schedule is fairly short therefore statistics, while they do mean something, are not much help. The dynamics of a team shift over a season, in cycles and super cycles, and trend up or down each week, each month and each season as they also do for individual players. A team’s result on game day is more dependent upon these things (as well as practices leading up to the game, the players comfort level with the schemes, the coaching and the officiating errors which cannot be known by the average person) than any statistics. NFL Buddha looks at what can be seen and does not look at what is not actually there.
Our Intention
NFL Buddha looks at every game and evaluates the relative strengths and weaknesses of the participants IN THE MOMENT. Next NFL Buddha looks at the line and if it too is favorable the match is slotted into the selection matrix based on its anticipated total value. If the odds are below evens but everything still points to a victory it may become an “Other Selection” based on other qualitative factors.
Our Selections
Each selection is made entirely independent of all other selections. NFL Buddha is aware that it is not possible to make a correct selection every time hence makes no attempt to do so. NFL Buddha does not pay attention to hype or allow mystique to influence what is considered rather makes selections based on the perceived value of each individual selection based on the Money Line and rates them as Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary. NFL Buddha next identifies selections that are seen to be good value DESPITE the Money Line, and finally selects a team where an extremely attractive return intrigues sufficiently to override failure to fully meet a bona fides selection criterion due to special circumstances and becomes a Longshot Selection (Woof Woof Go of the Week). Lastly, NFL Buddha identifies those games where the input available is insufficient to make a rational selection and titles these as “Games to Avoid.”
Our Comments
Our comments are brief and to the point. Players and teams who perform poorly are evaluated as poor performers hence some comments are not flattering. NFL Buddha formulates comments based upon what truly is and does not carry “grudges” or formulate “resentments.”
Our Strategy
NFL Buddha postulates selections based on the premise that over time, if one wagers in a skilful fashion on those games where either the Money Line is favorable, that is above evens, or the appraisal of which shows a team at odds between 2/7 and evens to be clearly superior, a positive total return may be achieved. NFL Buddha there attempts to keep a ratio of roughly 70-30 on these selections (Above Evens 70 - Between 2/7 and Evens 30). It is by using skilful selections and selecting a comfortable initial stake that wagering on football will foster increased enjoyment rather than cause harm.
Our Appraisal
NFL Buddha suggests only using the Money Line for the individual games it chooses to proceed with. It has been NFL Buddha’s experience that a point spread wager is not skilful as the spread itself seldom affects the success or failure of a selection and that at 10/11 a correct selection must be made more than 50% of the time to achieve even a modest profit. By accepting 10/11 in place of attractive Money Lines of 7/2 or more the value approach instrumental in the NFL Buddha selection process is entirely negated. Such actions are not skilful as returns are not increased simply because the selection did not need the points. Parleys, multiple wagers such as Trebles, Yankees, Canadians, Goliaths etc. are looked upon as pretty much impossible to select correctly on a regular basis and one would be better served by playing a lottery paying a multi-million dollar prize.
Our Action
NFL Buddha uses a weekly stake that remains constant for a reasonably long period. Generally, the entire regular season represents one period and the post season another. This weekly stake is divided equally amongst the selections chosen to proceed with any given week. This stake is never re-wagered during a period rather it remains on account for a period end tally. If the wagering is done over the entire period skillfully realized profits are taken out at the end to realize further enjoyment and the stake for the next cycle is kept on account. In this way, the games may be enjoyed period after period with zero potential financial hardship. As the whole point is to reduce suffering by fostering enjoyment it would not be skilful to inflict self-harm in the process.
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