The NFL in this Moment - Week Sixteen 2015

The Seattle Seahawks have once again reared their ugly heads [And they are ugly], to find themselves once again headed for the playoffs but Carson Palmer was able to play 14 games this season (so far) allowing the Cardinals to build an unassailable lead before Seattle could get their shit together. And, therein lay the rub: How good can a division pretty much owned by Carson Palmer be? If we allow that superior conditioning and diet combined with rule changes aimed specifically increasing the longevity of Quarterbacks permit Tom Brady to be increasingly effective even at age 38, we must also, at least, entertain the notion that Palmer has been able to ascend to the rank of “elite” (whatever that means). A big part of the problem in determining just how good the 2015 version of the Seahawks might be is tied inexorably to the fact that the NFC simply does not possess adequate competition for an accurate appraisal.

The NFC has an East division that was so messed up last year that the supremely dysfunctional Dallas Cowboys somehow sported a perfect 8-0 road record to top it, a North division which saw the Lions spot the other three teams five [5] wins out of the gate and seven [7] of their first eight [8] starts, the Bears attempting the unenviable task of switching directions at full speed under new HC John Fox, the Vikings with a top-notch starting defence that was found to be threadbare in the depth department once the inevitable injuries hit and the (fudge) Packers, who’s loss of Jordy Nelson for the entire year helped make Aaron Rodgers look incredibly ordinary, and the NFC West which is, almost by default, head-and-shoulders above the rest where even the third-place Rams even, after ALL those extra draft picks gifted to them by Danny Snyder et al, can, on a good day, beat all of the above. The 49ers are excused this term due to the departure of most (2/3rds) of their starting defence and their piece of $#*! Coach.

Seattle lost to the Bengals but beat the Steelers (although the Steelers had a first down on the Seahawk ten and a half yard line down five (5) with under three minutes to play when things went awry, including the departure of Roethlisberger. One surprising development that has come from the loss of Marshawn Lynch is the possibility of Russell Wilson emerging as a legitimate NFL-caliber starting Quarterback, even with a large number of his touchdown passes traveling a small number of yards. We all remember what happened when Wilson tried that with the big kids from Baahstun down in Phoenix in February however for whatever reason the blame for that errant pass stuck to Pete Carrol and/or OC Bevell instead of where it should have rested. You may have noticed that we have neglected to mention Carolina. The reason is simple: During their improbable run of fourteen [14] straight wins, the Panthers have beaten exactly one [1] team that currently has a winning record: A Green Bay Packer squad that cannot stop the run to save their lives and whose main threat in the passing game is 31 year old James Jones, a decent enough of a wide receiver but also one who’s best days are well behind him.

Meanwhile, back in the much more comfortable AFC, the status quo is being fastidiously maintained. The New England Patriots have locked up the AFC East for the seventh straight year and a first round Bye for the sixth straight year (they can secure top seed for the second straight year with one [1] more win), the Bengals and Steelers are once again duking it out for the AFC North (the loser should get a Wild Card), the Texans are looking like they will reclaim the South from the Colts after three straight Indy titles and the Broncos once again rule the AFC West however the pesky KC Chiefs keep on winning (presently eight [8] in a row with ten [10] total more likely than not) and could knock the Broncos down to a Wild Card. Any scenario that has the Broncos missing the playoffs altogether requires a Jets victory over the Patriots. Jets Quarterback Fitzpatrick is 1-7 lifetime over New England, his lone win coming in Week Three of the 2011 season when Brady threw four [4] interceptions.

The feature AFC matchup this weekend (although perhaps not as good a game as the Patriots/Jets) has AJ McCarron leading the Cincinnati Bengals into Denver where a Bengal loss could cost them a first round bye while a Denver loss could see them miss the playoffs altogether. In a perfect world, the Patriots will beat the Jets while the Bengals beat the Broncos. The Steelers win out to take a Wild Card and the number five seed. The Chiefs then win out and take the AFC West, leaving the Broncos with a Wild Card in the final number six seed. This would set up a Wild Card round wherein the Chiefs host the Broncos while the Steelers visit the Texans. After Kansas City sends Kubiak home with that old, familiar one-and-done feeling they get to go to Cincinnati and try their luck with the Bengals while the winner of the Houston-Pittsburgh tilt get a trip to Foxborough.

The NFC will almost certainly have Carolina and Arizona getting first round Byes. If Seattle loses to St. Louis and Arizona (which they already have this season) they would fall to the sixth seed and would end up facing the winner of the NFC North (Minnesota or Green Bay). The loser of the NFC North would then take the fifth seed. In this dream scenario, the Seahawks go to Lambeau and lose due to the lack of a running back while Kirk Cousins continues his hot streak and beats the Vikings. The Redskins would then go to Charlotte to take on the Panthers while the Packers head to Arizona to play the Cardinals.

Thursday Night Football

 2/1 San Diego Chargers +5.0 @ 5/12 Oakland Raiders -5.0

As the season winds down there are many of these type of games this week and next – Games with nothing on the line but pride where teams may or may not try some experimentation. This game has nothing to recommend it.

Selection: None

Satruday Night Football

7/5 Washington Redskins +3.0 @ 5/8 Philadelphia Eagles -3.0

The Eagles and Redskins are an identical 6-7-1 vs the spread this season so no help available from that angle. Washington has the better overall record and the better Quarterback based on current form. Add in the better odds and the Redskins are the better bet.

Selection: 7/5 Washington Redskins

4/1 San Francisco 49ers +9.0 @ 5/19 Detroit Lions -9.0

Selection: None

1/5 Pittsburgh Steelers -10.0 @ 7/2 Baltimore Ravens +10.0

Selection: None

11/5 Dallas Cowboys +6.0 @ 5/13 Buffalo Bills -6.0

Selection: None

5/8 Indianapolis Colts –3.0 @ 7/5 Miami Dolphins +3.0

Selection: None

15/8 Houston Texans + 4.5 @ 10/23 Tennessee Titans -4.5

With the Texans still in the hunt for the division while the Titans are forced to go with back-up Zach Mettenberger you have to know the bettors want no part of projected starter Brandon Weeden who won his first game since 2012 (albeit in relief of TJ Yates). You want to believe that if Hoyer passes the concussion protocol these odds will flip-flop in a heartbeat, however, we like the Texans EVEN WITH Weeden starting.

Selection: 15/8 Houston Texans

20/33 New England Patriots -3.0 @ 29/20 New York Jets +3.0

The spread and odds on this game are a lot more bet-able than anticipated. It is unlikely New England would want to leave a chance at locking up top seed asking. It may not last so grab it while you can.

Selection: 20/33 New England Patriots

7/5 Chicago Bears +3.0 @ 5/8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.0

You have to believe that Lovie Smith would like nothing better than to send the Bears back to Chicago with a case of the blues – The Black & Blues that is. Problem is, John Fox is the better coach and watching Winston lose to the Rams it was easy to see that he doesn’t like being uncomfortable. Fox will use that to his advantage.

Selection: 7/5 Chicago Bears

26/5 Cleveland Browns +12.5 @ 2/15 Kansas City Chiefs -12.5

The way Manziel marched the Browns down the field to take a 7-0 lead over Seattle was likely a portent of things yet to come – Provided Johnny stays focussed on football, at least during football season. At these odds, betting against Alex Smith has got to be attractive.

Selection: 26/5 Cleveland Browns

5/16 Carolina Panthers -7.0 @ 13/5 Atlanta Falcons +7.0

Selection: None

13/2 St. Louis Rams +13.5 @ 1/10 Seattle Seahawks -13.5

The Rams beat the Seahawks at home this year and last but could not win in Seattle in 2014. They can’t win much this year, but they can win this game. Case Keenum is definitely an improvement over the rest of the guys that have faced Seattle the past two years. Gotta love these odds.

Selection: 13/2 St. Louis Rams

7/4 Green Bay Packers +4.0 @ 10/21 Arizona Cardinals -4.0

Great chance for Packer fans to recoup some of their losses from earlier this year. Of course, that brings to mind one of my Uncle Frank’s maxims: Every time I try to get even, things get even worse.

Selection: None

Sunday Night Football
11/5 New York Giants +6.0 @ 5/13 Minnesota Vikings -6.0

If Washington wins, by the time this game is played it could be all over but the crying for the Giants nevertheless one must assume that losing to Teddy Wobblyballs would have to rankle even the most amenable of gridiron gentlemen. Take the odds and take the Giants

Selection: 11/5 New York Giants

Monday Night Football
8/5 Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 @ 5/9 Denver Broncos -3.5

The Broncos have only been averaging a shade over 18 points per game with Brock (throwing out the New England game where Brady put up the points for both teams) and when you knock out scores by the defence and long field goal it drops to below 14 points. As well, Brock has not faced a defence as nearly as good as Cincinnati’s (again, throw out the Patriots) and you have to wonder if the wrong team is favored here. AJ McCarron broke his maiden in his first start in impressive fashion so he should not be a concern. Take the odds or the points but be sure to take the Bengals.

Selection: 8/5 Cincinnati Bengals

NFL 2015 Approaching the Quarter Pole - Friday Perspective

Week Four’s games are almost upon us, as Hurricane Joaquin meanders in the Bahamas for yet another day before deciding what direction to head in and acting as a metaphor for a number of NFL teams. In Dallas, we are being treated to a very special treat. By all accounts, Brandon Weeden is in possession of an impressive set of physical tools that have allowed him to pursue careers in professional sports, first as a Baseball Pitcher and presently as an NFL Quarterback. Not as young as you might expect for a guy in only his fourth NFL season, at over 31 years old, Weeden went back to school after hitting his ceiling in Baseball and became Cleveland’s first round draft pick in 2012. Weeden is presently the Quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys, who’s regular first string Quarterback Tony Romo is out with a broken collarbone and who acquired Matt Cassel as insurance last week.

In Brandon Weeden, Dallas has a Quarterback with tremendous arm strength and accuracy. On the practice field. Matt Cassel was also a Baseball Pitcher, albeit for a much shorter stretch with only one season completed for USC. The fact that Cassel ever threw an NFL pass is surprising in that he was a back-up his entire time at USC, first behind Carson Palmer, which is perhaps understandable, but his final two seasons behind Matt Leinart are much less easy to understand. Seahawk’s coach (Uncle) Pete Carroll was running the Trojan’s football program at the time and it is a testament to just how much better USC was than everyone else that they won a National Championship with the much better Quarterback (Cassel) sitting on the bench. Bill Belichick took over the Patriots after Carrol was let go in 1999 And it is hard to imagine the Patriots drafting Cassel, albeit it 25th last at 230th overall yet still Ryan 20 places ahead of current Jets Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, without Carroll touting Cassel bigtime.*

Weeden and Cassel have come to the Cowboys by vastly different roads. As a seventh round pick, nothing much was expected of Cassel so the 2008 season had to be a pleasant surprise for Belichick. It was pretty clear what he had by Week Ten when Cassel, down 24-6 to Brett Farve and the Jets when the Patriots got the ball back on their own 32 with under two minutes to go in the first half Cassel mounted a furious comeback which saw him cap off the first half two-minute drill with a 19 yard TD strike to Gaffney, finish off the second half two-minute drill with an absolutely perfect pass to Randy Moss in exactly the right spot to send it into overtime and throw about a beautiful 60 yard bomb to Gaffney in the third quarter that hit him right on his hands that he booted. Gaffney catches that ball and there is no overtime, the Patriots win the game, make the playoffs where, with the team going 18-0 up to the Super Bowl the previous year, they likely would have won it all.

Weeden on the other hand has been nothing but a disappointment on the other hand. It only took Cassel eight (8) weeks/starts to win as many games as Weeden has won over his entire four (4) year career. Weeden has not won a game since December of 2012 while losing 7 starts over parts of four seasons. Cassel broke multiple bones in his throwing hand in Kansas City in 2011 after taking the Chiefs to the playoffs and going to the Pro Bowl the previous year. Things didn’t go much better for Cassel in 2012 as he struggled to re-learn how to throw with his “new” hand however he was the lone bright spot in a dismal Minnesota Viking Quarterback’s room where he either started and won, or came in off the bench and rallied from behind, in all five (5) of the Viking’s 2013 victories. 

Cassel only had two (2) bad games all year in 2013, a stinker in Carolina the week that Adrian Peterson’s baby boy was murdered and blowout loss to the Bengals in a game where the entire team played horrible. In his only other game he played well enough to win in Baltimore but for some reason the officials literally gave the game to the Ravens on a non-catch (Brown was bobbling the ball as he went out of the back of the end zone) which kept the Ravens in the playoff picture for an extra week or two before the Patriots demolished them in Week Sixteen 41-7 to exact a bit of revenge for the Ravens beating them in the AFC Championship the previous season enroute to Baltimore’s Super Bowl victory that year.

Brandon Weeden has been with Dallas since Kyle Orton retired (and then un-retired to start for the Bills) prior to the 2014 season, which has given Dallas owner Jerrah Jones ample opportunity to drool over the way Weeden can sling the ball all over the field in practice. Physical talent, or lack thereof, is not the problem. When one looks at all of Weeden’s starts going back to his very first year, the win probablitlity graph looks exactly the same. In the game, and usually winning, as the second quarter ends and then, straight south. Usually zero points in the second half, with the exception of defensive or special team scores, however, on occasion, an eighty or ninety yard kick return has set up Weeden in the Red Zone and he has converted. When Weedon was with Cleveland, there was one game where Josh Gordon to a bubble screen deep into the Red Zone. One game. It is not like the Browns won but they did score points in the fourth quarter solely due to the offence. Once. 

Last week, Weeden started for Dallas and the Cowboys were up 28-17 at halftime. As usual, Weeden generated zero points in the second half with only three Dallas first downs as the Cowboys went three and out often enough to limit themselves to 19 offensive plays while there longest drive of 29 yards did not even get them past mid-field. The Falcons are playing better defence under Dan Quinn to be sure but against the Eagles, where Sam Bradford’s struggles have been well documented, the Falcons gave up three (3) touchdowns including drives of 95 and 80 yards whereas against the Giants, a team that has struggled mightily in the second half this season, Atlanta still gave up ten (10) points after drives of 69 and 30 yards not to mention the Giants 57 yard drive that ended with a fumble. Both teams had single drives in the second half which accounted for more offence than the Cowboy’s total for the second half.

What Weeden has shown, and will continue to show, is that in order for a quarterback to succeed in the NFL there is a degree of mental toughness which, if it is not there, cannot be made up for regardless of the Quarterback’s athletic ability. Weeden is merely a perfect example of this but it can be seen to a lesser degree across the league. In San Francisco, Colin Kaepernick’s descent can be partially explained by defences adjusting to take away some of his strengths however the way he has fallen off a cliff this season cannot be explained by that. Same goes for Russell Wilson. The same thing happened with EJ Manuel, has happened with Geno Smith. Cam Newton has had losing streaks of five (5) games or more two of the last three seasons. The reason that it stands out with these guys may be because their overall athletic ability absolutely towers over guys like Brady, Manning and Rivers etc. Brandon Weeden is merely the perfect example. 

Andy Dalton appears to have the same problem however his is limited to the playoffs. While every Quarterback has bad games, not every Quarterback can achieve a passer rating of two (as in 2). Even with his four (4) interceptions last week Kaepernick’s passer rating was 16.7, which is more than eight times (8x) what Dalton achieved in the Browns disaster last season. Alex Smith is another Quarterback incapable of scaling the wall past mediocrity. Ditto for Matt Stafford and Jay Cutler. Peyton Manning keeps Andy Dalton company when it comes to the playoffs, being one and done his first three tries and 9 of 13 lifetime.

• Cassel has gone on the earn over $59 million (and counting) as an NFL Quarterback, more than triple what Leinart made over his NFL career, however Carson Palmer has earned more than triple that at over $180 million showing that, while there is some justice after all, it is impossible to feel sorry for any of these guys