The NFL in the Moment – Tuesday – 9:55am EST – Week Twelve 2017

We had an amazing week with our three primary selections (Minnesota, New England, and Philadelphia) all scoring 24 or more points while giving up less than 10 points, allowing us to cash all of our Alternate Spread bets. Our Woof Woof Go Longshot of the Week, the 13/4 New York Giants, also came through. We really liked the Week Eleven card of games, unlike the Week Ten and Week Twelve cards. We have made out very well on Thanksgiving in the past, so are hoping that more research will make us feel better about the games.

The NFL in the Moment – Tuesday – 9:45am EST – Week Twelve 2017

What do the Bills, Browns, Colts (sort of), Texans (sort of), Cowboys, Packers (sort of), Panthers, Tampa Bay (sort of) and Seahawks all have in common? The employ Black Men who have started at the Quarterback position this season. In years past, the answer would have jumped into everyone’s head automatically. But the world has changed from the days when HOF Quarterback Warren Moon had to go out to the frozen wasteland of Edmonton in the Canadian Prairies and win a handful of Grey Cups to get an offer to play under center in the NFL.

Quarterbacks of Color no longer carry the stigma they once did, but there is no way Buffalo would have experienced such a significant backlash this past weekend if Tyrod Taylor was White or Nate Peterman was Black. I was very surprised that the issue remains so charged. In my world, we evaluate teams based on what they have and what we believe that they lack. There is no room for racism when we make a decision to bet, or not bet, on or against any team. Racism has pissed me off ever since I was a little kid (I am white).

LeGarrette Blount is my favorite current NFL player. Ernie “The Big Cat” Ladd is my all-time favorite player. Doug Williams made me a ton of money when he won the Super Bowl for the Redskins, as did Jim Plunkett with the Raiders in 1980. Out of the current crop of young Quarterbacks, it is hard not to put Carson Wentz on top. After Wentz though, we like Jacoby Brissett a lot more than Goff, Prescott and the rest of the young ‘ins. When Andrew Luck returns next season, Brissett will be an improvement for a number of teams while he continues to learn. I’d love to see what a guy like Kyle Shanahan could do with Jacoby.

All of this leads up, finally, to our point, which is really very simple: The NFL must stop trying to “make” Cam Newton into an MVP caliber Quarterback. It is not a good idea and is frankly embarrassing. Linebackers key on Offensive Linemen. Once an Offensive Lineman advances beyond the Line of Scrimmage, the Linebacker knows that the play is a run and he doesn’t have to worry about coverage. Except for Carolina.

Touchdowns are supposed to be reviewed, so the three TD’s that I have watched the Panthers score with Ineligible Players downfield that were not reversed point to a concerted effort by the NFL to force the issue. The league needs to let it go. Jacoby Brissett or some kid still in school will win MVP because he deserves it, not because he happens to be Black.

The NFL in the Moment Week Twelve II 2015

Week Twelve 2015 II kicks off at 1:00 pm this afternoon with some interesting games on tap throughout the day. We should get a better idea of how good Mike Zimmer's "D" actually is down in Atlanta, whether Kirk Cousins is developing as much as we think he is in Washington, whether the Saints defence still resembles Swiss Cheese, if Todd Gurley can run through the Bengals defence without much aerial support, how far Lovey Smith has brought the Tampa Defence and what his QB (Famous Jameis) can do against a team like Indianapolis, if the Raiders can pull out of their three (3) in Nashville and whether Buffalo can compete with Kansas City while missing both Williams (Kyle and Mario) from the defensive line all before 4:30 pm.

In the later games, Arizona is odds-on to put away the 49ers (but you never know with absolute certainty so stay away) however Carson Palmer is overdue to plummet back to earth, and the Steelers launch their playoff bid out in Seattle where the weather is supposed to be good and Ben Roethlisberger is supposed to be healthy. And finally, in the Sunday Nighter, the Patriots take on the Broncos sans Peyton Manning where both teams are relatively equal on defence (adjusted for garbage time yards) hence with Osweiler making his second lifetime start while Brady looks to improve his record against the Broncos to 6-5, New England has the edge both at Quarterback and Head Coach. We could get any kind of game. Good Luck!

Sunday’s Games

17/10 Miami Dolphins + 4.0 at 1/2 New York Jets – 4.0

The spread has shifted as Miami has been drawing little support. Talent wise, these coaches are pretty close however rumour has it that Dan Campbell's Rah, Rah, Rah approach just isn't working with the Dolphins anymore. The Dolphins problems start with GM Dennis Hickey, the man who traded a first and fourth round pick so Revis could finish rehabbing his ACL in Tampa before winning a Super Bowl with New England and who hired the ill-fated Greg Schiano. The current Dolphin roster does not equal the sum of its parts and Ryan Tannehill, part of the "Mobile Quarterback Movement", certainly is not capable of carrying this team on his back. Last year New York won in Miami and Miami won in New York and that could happen again as the situation in New York really isn't much better. Both teams have mediocre Quarterbacks, with the Jet's Ryan Fitzpatrick having never compiled a winning record in his nine years as an off and on starting QB (neither has Tannehill) and the Jets record doesn't add up with their talent elsewhere as the result.

Selection: None

23/20 Minnesota Vikings + 2.5 at 20/27 Atlanta Falcons – 2.5

The spread on this game has moved down on the Falcons a full 1.0 points as even more money has poured in on Atlanta. The move is difficult to understand as the Falcon's lone with in their past five (5) games was over the worst team in the league while being coached by likely the worst Head Coach in the league at that time, Ken Wisenhunt. Mike Zimmer has made all the right moves save one, getting himself a Quarterback who can win games for him, but has put together a good defence with a good scheme that couldn’t keep the Packers from winning but faces a somewhat easier task here. The Minnesota offence is still only Adrian Peterson as QB Bridgewater is terrible, but All Day should be enough. Seeing Carolina at 11-0 should help you to see that there wasn’t a whole lot of merit in Atlanta’s 6-1 start and they come into this game coming off losses to a bad 49ers team and an equally bad Colts squad. Minnesota’s schedule hasn’t been the toughest either but if you ignore opening week (and you should) they were the last team to beat the Chiefs and have only lost to Green Bay and Denver since that first week. Surprisingly (to us), the Falcons took the money early as well. With Chicago and Detroit suddenly on fire (collectively 6-2 the past four [4] weeks against playoff opposition and good teams) and the Vikings currently in first place, Minnesota cannot afford any losses against beatable teams like this.

Selection: Minnesota Vikings + 2.5/Minnesota Vikings @ 23/20

20/27 New York Giants – 2.5 at 23/20 Washington Redskins + 2.5

The Giants always play New England tough. Their own division, not so much. We were pretty impressed with Cousins in New England, which played out in New Orleans and, believe it or not, the first half of the Panthers game, and think that he is already almost the best Quarterback in the NFC East and will be the best sooner than most think. Of course, that may be because we find the other guy in Washington so detestable. The Giants bring back WR Hicks which should be just enough of a distraction for Manning. If he and his mates play like they did last week, forget about it. They won’t. It is a curious fact that since the season of the Tyree incident, the Giants have only made the playoff after 6-2 or better starts. This game has huge ramifications for Washington if they end up tied with the Giants for the division. If the Redskins win, the season series will end up 1-1 and Washington will be 2-1 in the NFC East while the Giants will drop to 2-3. Washington is 4-1 at home this season while the Giants are 2-3 on the road.

Selection: Washington Redskins + 2.5/Washington Redskins @ 23/20

29/20 New Orleans Saints + 3.0 at 20/33 Houston Texans – 3.0

This game has had a bit of money going on the Texans causing a slight change in the money line while the spread has held firm. So New Orleans finally fired Rob Ryan and who do they bring in? Dennis Allen, picked off the Raiders scrap heap, formerly a part of John’s Fox’s staff (as DC) during the Year of Tebow in Denver. We won’t be surprised if Tebow has a baby watching New England shut out Osweiler this weekend when BB takes away the run and Demaryius Thomas. We digress. We do not think the Saints defence is going to improve by leaps and bounds with Allen in a week. Houston meanwhile is right back where they were last year at 5-5, but the difference is they are tied with the Colts and they have a Quarterback who is significantly better than Ryan Fitzpatrick, not that that is saying a whole lot. Brian Hoyer is slated to return this week and given the dysfunction in Cleveland Hoyer must be considerably more grounded in Houston. After watching DeAndre Hopkins burn Revis repeatedly last week, it is fair to wonder that if the Texans can get their running game going, will they be a legitimate postseason threat? Of course, Hoyer might self-destruct if it went that far but he should have a field day today.

Selection: Houston Texans – 3.0

7/4 San Diego Chargers + 4.0 at 10/21 Jacksonville Jaguars – 4.0

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. San Diego, picked by many to supplant the Broncos as Manning fell into dotage, have rewarded their backers with a meagre two (2) wins in ten (10) tries as yet another year of Philip Rivers’ career has been wasted. Watching the massive King Dunlap wobble around last week in a desperate effort to protect Rivers from Kansas City’s pass rush had to be downright disturbing to the 65,837 ??? (it didn’t look like that many) Charger faithful on hand last week. Remember that this is pretty much the same Chargers team that knocked themselves out of the playoffs last year with a horrible 37-0 loss to the Dolphins in Florida. Despite all that, Jacksonville is not very appealing at 10/21 or giving 4.0 points so the Chargers would be the play for a gambler type. We would like San Diego at 5/2 but 7/4 is not a high enough return given the risk.

Selection: None

13/4 St. Louis Rams + 9.0 at 2/9 Cincinnati Bengals – 9.0

Keenum is out, the spread has gone up for St. Louis, Jeff Fisher has once again been singled out for being an idiot and Nick Foles is back in the driver's seat for the Rams. In Cincinnati, Marvin Lewis has a job in his hands developing a game plan that negates the Rams pass rush. Last week, Rams Rookie Defensive End Matt Longacre was rushing Flacco (just after the Keenum incident) and when Flacco’s 300 lb Left Tackle James Hurst let go of the hold he had on 240 lb Longacre he fell backwards and took out Joe Flacco’s ACL and MCL. Bengals Quarterback Andy Dalton pulled his el disappearo act when JJ Watt and friends visited (Passer Rating 61.0) two weeks ago and it won’t be any better this Sunday as the Rams limited Flacco (Passer Rating 70.0) before knocking him out of the game, especially if starting Defensive End Robert Quinn returns. This game is not the cakewalk for the Bengals that everyone is anticipating but betting of Jeff Fisher's team is not a pass time for the faint of heart.

Selection: St. Louis Rams @ 13/4 but only for a little 

13/10 Tampa Bay Bucs + 3.0 at 4/6 Indianapolis Colts – 3.0

We never “bought-in” on Andrew Luck while the league was attempting to turn him into a superstar so we are not surprised that the Colts are, if anything, playing better with journeyman Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck under center. Rookie, Jameis Winston could be a big part of Lovie Smith’s turnaround in Tampa Bay which has the Bucs in the hunt for an NFC Wildcard at 5-5 after winning three (3) of their last four (4) contests. Hasselbeck has been aided greatly by catching teams at the right time on the way to a 3-0 record however the curtain got peeled back a bit last week when the game in Atlanta turned into a comedy of errors where fumble recoveries were offset by interceptions and so on all around. Tampa meanwhile is on a roll beating backup Quarterbacks Cassel and Sanchez in their last two (2) games with Hasselback on deck. Winston is a rookie and Smith’s defence does have some holes but is playing very well, and the Colts appear destined for a nowhere season in what is likely Chuck Pagano’s swan song season. Go easy

Selection: Tampa Bay Bucs + 3.0 /Tampa Bay Bucs @ 13/10

20/23 Oakland Raiders – 1.0 at 20/21 Tennessee Titans + 1.0

The Raiders have been burning a ton of money lately however, it is not their fault that they have been favored over some of the better teams. Thursday gave us an idea of just how good Caldwell has the Lions playing after installing Jim Bob Cooter to replace Joe Lombardi as Offensive Coordinator so Oakland’s loss to Detroit is not so hard to understand after getting run over the previous week by Adrian Peterson and getting beaten in overtime the week before that by Ben Roethlisberger. The Titans, on the other hand, are most probably the worst team in the league compounded by a lame duck interim head coach in Mike Mularkey. Looking at the rest of Oakland’s schedule (KC x 2, Den, GB + SD) getting to 8-8 is a pretty tall order making this a must-win game for the Raiders. While not yet Road warriors, Oakland has already won two (2) road games this year in games where they were clearly the better team like this game.

Selection: Oakland Raiders – 1.0/Oakland Raiders @ 20/23

19/10 Buffalo Bills + 5.0 at 10/23 Kansas City Chiefs -5.0

This game has seen the Money Line drop and spread shrink a full point.The Buffalo Bills, who were once everyone’s darling to challenge the Patriots this year, haven’t changed much since opening day. The Bills will finish 8-8 or the same as last year (9-7) while KC has a slightly easier schedule and could finish as high as 10-6 so what we have here are two teams, essentially equal, with home field advantage going to the Chiefs. After being overbet in games earlier this year, Buffalo is now under bet for this contest, even with today's (Sunday's) movement in the line (Fair Value s/b 33/20 and + 3.5 points). Don’t bet much!

Selection: Buffalo Bills + 5.0 /Buffalo Bills @ 19/10

1/5 Arizona Cardinals – 10.0 at 7/2 San Francisco 49ers + 10.0

There is no particular reason Arizona should stumble here, but 10.0 points are a lot to give on the road. San Francisco was only a field goal away from covering a big spread in Seattle last week. We may even get to see former SC Gamecock Quarterback Dylan Thompson in this game. A very good game to stay far away from as you won't get rich betting 1/5 shots.

Selection: None

33/20 Pittsburgh Steelers + 3.5 at 10/19 Seattle Seahawks – 3.5

Wow, that 4.5 points sure disappeared fast as after opening this game up a lot of money went on the Steelers. We thought we would see this spread going down to 2.5 points by Sunday, but it has held. Pittsburgh seems to have an unlimited supply of good linebackers that can stop the run, help out in coverage and rush the passer as required. The Steelers cannot lose before being “on to Cincinnati” in a fortnight if they are going to have any real hope of capturing a division title which, given the situation in Denver and the state of the AFC South will most probably also capture the second Playoff Bye, a completely different animal from a Wild Card. We find ourselves unable to take Seattle seriously without Marshawn Lynch. They may have beaten San Francisco, but they are playing with the big kids here. Much like last week’s Green Bay +1.0 at Minnesota, this too is almost like stealing as Seattle has only covered the spread 3 times this season.

Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers + 3.5/ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 33/20

4/6 New England Patriots - 3.0 at 13/0 Denver Broncos – 7.0

We won’t be surprised if Tebow has a baby watching New England shut out Osweiler this weekend when BB takes away the run and Demaryius Thomas. People go on and on (and on) about Denver’s defence however the Patriots have the lead in the most important category, that is Top Scoring Defence, and once you adjust both teams for Yards Against for garbage time to date this season, they end up within five (5) yards of each other. On Offence, it is a much different story however, as New England has scored an average of 33.6 Points Per Game while Denver has scored an average of 22.2 Points Per Game and with Manning out last week Osweiler could only manage to put up 17 against 25th ranked Chicago last week. Meanwhile, Back in Boston, New England has run out of wide receivers. After watching the transaction wire all week and seeing no activity, we expect to see LaFell, Harper and perhaps Slater on occasion out there with White lined up in the four (4) WR sets. On the other side, Kubiak is giving Osweiler his second start, the difference is that this week it is against the best coach in the league leading the presently unbeaten champions in an all-out drive towards the playoffs who is 8-1 against QB's in their first two starts. Belichick moved yet another tight end to the active roster this week so don't be surprised if we see a five (5) tight end set at some point.

Selection: New England Patriots – 3.0/ New England Patriots @ 4/6

29/20 Baltimore Ravens + 3.0 at 20/33 Cleveland Browns – 3.0

You know that we are at the place in the schedule which determines the playoff configuration when games like this come up. While neither team is mathematically eliminated from the post-season picture, the chances of them getting there are extremely remote. Matt Schaub is left in Baltimore along with sundry detritus thanks to Kubiak last year while the backup Baltimore drafted, Tyrod Taylor, has been starting for Buffalo all year for less than half of what Schaub cost the Ravens this past offseason. The Browns meanwhile continue to grapple with Manziel’s reputed alcoholism and pulled the starting gig from Johnny after photos of him celebrating his promotion to starting Quarterback surfaced to return Josh McCown to playing under center. The Browns are still the Browns. It would not be wise to wager on this one either way.

Selection: None

The NFL in the Moment Midweek Twelve 2015

Does anyone actually like listening to Phil Simms? Somebody must, otherwise they would put someone else on the air. If you do, please leave a comment as to why? We don’t put the sound on at our place because the ladies don’t like the noise (or the endless rhetorical questions as to why some unseen talking head would say something particularly ridiculous) but caught the first 30 seconds of the Dallas broadcast and cannot figure out the appeal. Kindly enlighten us? Fortunately, there are some pretty good games this weekend (read good long shot plays) to make everyone forget all about Thursday.

You can’t say we didn’t warn you. Being Non-Sanchez fans, we didn’t expect much from the Eagles but it was the Lions who hit on all cylinders all year long. This is what we were expecting when they replace Donkey Kong with Haloti Ngata. Ngata must finally be healthy and the Lions are not a team anyone is going to want to face anytime soon. Suddenly next week Packers-Lions tilt in Motown has become very interesting.  Dallas is absolutely terrible and how they ended up favored over Carolina says a lot about Americans. They should not have let Romo start last week and that it hasn’t been Cassel’s fault that they have played terrible. Starting Cassel now makes no sense for Dallas. They should go back to Weeden who is now in Houston because Case Keenum is in St Louis and Jerrah is a dotty old man.

When we saw all the rain in Green Bay we made a few small bets on Chicago. 8.5 points is a huge number on a track that sloppy. Our reluctance to take Chicago has been based on Jay Cutler and we finally saw what everyone has been talking about: John Fox has somehow fixed Jay Cutler. While we shall still tread lightly, you can bet the Bears again. A couple of weeks ago we wrote about them as a Wild Card possibility if they could win last week and this week. Winning one of them, they are now a six loss team with a chance to go on a run. Given the way Aaron Rodgers is playing and Minnesota’s lack of a Quarterback, 10-6 could take the NFC North, forget the Wild Card.

The NFL in the Moment - Thanksgiving 2015

When Cam Newton and Jameis Winston throw 5 touchdowns on any given Sunday, you have to know that, unless you are also a big NBA fan, you are going to have to find something else to do on Sunday afternoons between Labour Day and Valentines Day. Bridgewater and Geno Smith may be jokes, EJ Manuel and Russell Wilson may be yesterday’s news and the jury may still be out on Tyrod Taylor (Colin Kaepernick is below consideration) but one thing is certain: Football has undergone a fundamental shift, not necessarily for the better, in the league’s never-ending thirst for cash, and more of it’ and in trying to draw non-traditional fans they are going too far trying to please too many demographics. Pride goeth before destruction proclaims the Bible.

Much about Cam Newton has been written lately, most of which is a load of nonsense. There is a brilliant, young, Quarterback of Color in the NFL right now, and that is Jameis Winston in Tampa. He is the first good quarterback to come along in quite some time that happened to be black. It is not the system he played in College as the last two (2) high picks from FSU were Ponder and EJ Manuel. Ponder seems to have lost his chance at starting exactly at the point in his development when he became ready and Manuel just can’t seem to make the cut at the NFL level. Winston, based on the serious allegations levelled at him for his behaviour at FSU and his ongoing weight problem, may self-destruct before fulfilling his potential but as of right now, Winston is simply a good Quarterback, no qualification required.

Another good young Quarterback is TJ Yates, signed off the street by the Texans after the Falcons released him in September. Much like Case Keenum, who had his head taken off on Sunday turning a game-winning drive for the Rams into a victory  for the Ravens as Jeff Fisher, once again, had no clue as to what was going on until hours after the game, Yates has improved much over the four years he spent in the Texans system. If Yates had Hoyer’s experience he would be a starting Quarterback somewhere. In a delicious irony, Baltimore now faces trotting out the author Gary Kubiak’s demise, Matt Schaub, while former Raven back-up Tyrod Taylor starts ably for the Bills, Case Keenum is the Rams starter (assuming he passes the concussion protocol) and Yates is headed back to the bench as an able back-up to Hoyer, at least for now. 

Kubiak has now wrecked the 2013 Texans, the 2015 Ravens (after spending the 2014 season there) and now the 2015 Broncos, all due to his inability to accurately assess a Quarterbacks ability. Brock Osweiler may have beaten the Bears but this week faces the number one scoring and rushing defence when New England rolls into Mile High on the weekend. The Patriots have surrendered over 100 yards rushing only once since Week Two and when Denver is unable to run the ball the Patriots pass rush, second only to the Broncos themselves in sacks, will severely limit the amount of time Osweiler has to get rid of the football. With the Patriot’s offence needing to once more reconfigure, this would be an ideal weekend for Manning to upset them (the Patriots are already down to 4/7), sore feet and all, but Kubiak has benched old Peyton. The game will by no means be an easy one for New England, particularly if DeMarcus Ware returns and is a factor,  but Kubiak has at least reduced the degree of difficulty.

Thanksgiving Games

Never understood why Americans make such a big deal out of Thanksgiving Weekend. Thanksgiving as a practice is a worthy goal but going home and getting hammered watching football all day followed by seriously overeating and then trampling people in shopping malls is much less easy to understand. The games this year are not nearly the quality of last year when we spent about to paragraphs explaining why taking the points and the Seahawks was a good idea over the favored 49ers and why Chip Kelly’s offence would walk all over Dallas which it did, even with Mark Sanchez. While we would love to see the Cowboys wipe that smirk off of Newton’s face and the Bears do the same to Aaron Rodgers we wouldn’t bet on it, nor do we believe the spread will come into play. The Eagles-Lions game is anyone’s guess. Good Luck.

Sunday’s Games

8/5 Miami Dolphins + 3.5 at 5/9 New York Jest – 3.5

Last year New York won in Miami and Miami won in New York. Both teams have mediocre Quarterbacks, under performing defences and unpredictable offences.

No Selection

20/21 Minnesota Vikings + 1.0 at 20/23 Atlanta Falcons – 1.0

Mike Zimmer has put together a good defence with a good scheme that couldn’t keep the Packers from winning but faces a somewhat easier task here. The Minnesota offence is still only Adrian Peterson as QB Bridgewater is terrible but All Day should be enough.

Selection: Minnesota Vikings + 1.0

20/29 New York Giants – 2.5 at 5/4 Washington Redskins + 2.5

The Giants always play New England tough. Their own division, not so much. We were pretty impressed with Cousins in New England, which played out in New Orleans and, believe it or not, the first half of the Panthers game, and thing that he is already almost the best Quarterback in the division and will be the best sooner than most think. The Giants bring back WR Hicks which should be just enough of a distraction.

Selection: Washington Redskins + 2.5/Washington Redskins @ 5/4

New Orleans/Houston

Selection: Houston – 3.0

San Diego/Jacksonville

Selection: San Diego  +4.0

Pittsburgh/Seattle

Selection: Pittsburgh +4.5 – Best Bet