The NFL in the Moment – Sunday – 12 am EDT – Week Four 2017

NFC September Report Cards

With September drawing to a close, we may not yet know who the good teams are going to be in December, but we are able to start determining which offseason hype was without substance. This, in turn, can give us an indication of which teams are maybe not so good.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1), First Place (Tie)

The Eagles are our selection to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. So far, so good, but Eagles Offensive Coordinator Frank Reich, formerly a Quarterback, needs to stick to the run EVERY game.  Fletcher Cox’s injured calf could become a problem. As it is, if Cox’s return is timely the Eagles could win every game between now and the end of the month. Wait and see.

Washington Redskins (2-1), First Place (Tie)  

Bruce Allen’s manipulation of owner Dan Snidley’s impatience to wrest control from Scot McCloughan succeeded in the offseason, with the result being a Redskins team built to win “right now”. Allen filled in all the holes with Free Agents and the Redskins are definitely for real. None of this will keep Kirk Cousins in Washington after this season, but at the moment the Redskins are one of the top teams in the NFC. We wonder if their game with Philadelphia is what ends up separating the two teams at the end of next month?

Dallas Cowboys (2-1), First Place (Tie)  

Last we heard, the Cowboys had regressed to the “Pistol” Offence, so we are no longer making a joke when we write about Dallas’s “College Offence” Their Defence is lousy too. At this point, we can’t see them winning another game before the end of October, but the NFL’s pro-Cowboy bias means you never know what you are going to get. As enticing as it might be to bet against them, JUST SAY NO.

New York Giants (0-3), Last Place

Odell Beckham is a cancer, and until the Giants realize that, they have zero chance of success. They should trade him while he still has trade value and move on. How much does it matter if they are 2-5 instead of 1-6 after October?

NFC North

Green Bay Packers (3-1), First Place

Green Bay should have won the Falcons game, hence should be 4-0 and the top-dog in the NFC. The Packers have big problems however, with injuries to both Offensive Tackles, their Nose Tackle and Running Back. Their Defence is a concern. Their schedule remains reasonably challenging until December, It will be interesting to see if they can stay ahead of a very good Vikings squad.

Minnesota Vikings (2-1), Second Place (Tie) 

The Vikings have a championship caliber Defence to compliment a competent Offence, with little to choose at Quarterback between starter Sam Bradford and backup Case Keenum. Both are NFL caliber Quarterbacks. It was kind of shocking to see that Keenum had not been practising with the “ones” leading up to the Steelers game. Pittsburgh still is not sharp and the Vikings could have stolen that game had they been ready. Minnesota has three Divisional games (including Detroit at home today) before the end of next month that will go a long way in determining who wins the NFC North.

Detroit Lions (2-1), Second Place (Tie)  

The Lions Defence is suspect and we have never been a big believer in Stafford. We expect Detroit to be a more reasonable 3-4 at the end of October.

Chicago Bears (1-3), Last Place

The Bears went off their script in Green Bay when down 14-0 early on a turnover. Bears Offensive Coordinator Dowell Loggains has to do a better job of sticking to the run, and the Bears cannot afford to keep losing Divisional games if they are going to make the playoffs this season. We have them finishing the first half of the season at 3-5, which is not going to do anything for anybody. The Bears are not a passing team, so whether Glennon or Trubisky is in is of no consequence. Curiously, not hanging on to Kicker Robbie Gould could prove costly.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (3-0), First Place

The Officials essentially gave the Falcons undeserved victories over Chicago and Detroit. The nonsense at the end of the first half in the Green Bay game with the “pick” call and non-call caused a 14 point shift in a game that the Packers only lost by 11 points. We wonder if the league is trying to justify another absurd MVP? Ryan won one less and lost six more games than Brady last year. We belive Dan Quinn is out of his depth as a Head Coach and that the Falcons Defence is much overrated.

Carolina Panthers (2-1), Second Place

The Panthers Offence is practically non-existent. Quarterback Cam Newton is a liability. Completely unreliable. The Panther Defence is overrated. We don’t see Carolina winning any games before the end of next month.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1), Third Place

The game against Minnesota gave us a good read on where Tampa Bay is at. The Vikings have a championship caliber Defence to compliment a competent Offence. It is hard to imagine this team progressing enough to be competitive for the NFC Championship. We reckon them to be 3-4 next month.

New Orleans Saints (1-2), Last Place

The Saints “All New” Defence is staring to play better. If it continues to improve, we expect New Orleans to have a winning record by the end of October. Depending on what happens to Atlanta, the NFC South might have a very interesting December in which it will be decided. Decided by Divisional games.

NFC West

Los Angeles Rams (2-1), First Place

We have always thought that Jeff Fisher was out-of-his-depth as a Head Coach, but the Rams Offence looks like a completely different team under McVay, making Fisher out to be even worse than we thought. We are not sure why they didn’t keep Greg Williams Coordinating the Defence. Wade Phillips was never any good, and is a dotard these days. The Defence will be a problem. Hats of to Stan Kroenke for standing his ground with Aaron Donald. We never had a doubt about it!

Arizona Cardinals (1-2), Second Place (Tie)

Carson Palmer never was that good and is now past it. We have them pegged at 3-4 at the end of October. Let us see.

Seattle Seahawks (1-2), Second Place (Tie)

The Seahawks Defence is getting old, their Offensive Line is terrible and Russell Wilson never has been that great. Trading Baldwin for Shelly was a better deal for the Jets than many imagine. We expect them to remain tied with Arizona next month as well..

San Francisco 49ers (0-3), Last Place

The 49ers got robbed of what would have potentially been their first win over the Rams. They are definitely improving and might have a couple of wins before October ends.

The NFL in the Moment – Sunday – 9.30 am EDT – Week Four 2017

AFC September Report Cards

With September drawing to a close, we may not yet know who the good teams are going to be in December, but we are able to start determining which offseason hype was without substance. This, in turn, can give us an indication of which teams are maybe not so good.

AFC East

New England Patriots (2-1), First Place (Tie)

Another typical September in Boston. The late preseason injury to Edelman forced the Patriots to expand their pass-catching group by more than just Cooks. The more recently acquired Phillip Dorsett has already shown flashes of brilliance, along with Jacob Hollister who has also shown he can take a hit and hang on to the ball. Brady is, as always, in MVP form. Gronkowski is a force. The running game is down Rex Burkehead and has been used sparingly thus far. LaAdrian Waddle had his hands full covering for Marcus Canon vs. Houston, but will only get better with more experience.

New England’s Defence is undergoing an intensive overhaul. Unlike last season when they used plug-and-play Free Agents to fill in the holes, the Patriots are developing a corps of Defensive Linemen while miss their best Linebacker Hightower as well as starting Cornerback Eric Rowe. Belichick will most probably bring someone in to upgrade the area(s) that continue to be a problem by the Trading Deadline at the end of next month. Tom Brady needs to keep scoring in the 30’s while the Defence sorts itself out.

Buffalo Bills (2-1), First Place (Tie)        

What a pleasant surprise Sean McDermott and Beane have been. They proved last weekend that they are s serious team. We give them every chance to beat the incredibly overrated Atlanta Falcons to close out the first quarter of their season, but fear the Pro-Falcon bias we have seen from the officials this season will continue. The problem with Buffalo is the same that it has been for quite some time: The Bills need an NFL caliber Quarterback. Tyrod Taylor does put up better numbers than some very highly paid starters, but none of them should be starting.

Getting rid of overpaid veterans is nothing new, but Belichick might have started something last season when he sent his two highest rated Defenders in line for their first big contracts (Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins) on their bikes and then went on to have the top Scoring Defence and win the Super Bowl. The Bills did the same thing this year, moving on from many veterans while maintaining a strong Defence. The quality of the new players that come along each year and having the best possible position coaches and Coordinators allow for the turnover. The Division’s tougher schedule this season makes projecting a Wild Card difficult, but it is possible. October will be a key month for the Bills.

Miami Dolphins (1-1), Third Place

We have heard an awful lot about Adam Gase, but it was not good after getting shutout by the Jets. Neither Cutler nor Tannehill is an NFL caliber Quarterback. The Dolphins made the playoffs by not losing to bad teams when they had a soft schedule last season. Moreover, they have only played two games. Wait and see.

New York Jets (1-2), Last Place

All things considered, it is entirely possible that Todd Bowles is well along the road to being a fine Head Coach. Jets QB Josh McCown is an actual NFL caliber Quarterback and Robbie Anderson is becoming, as Brandon Marshall predicted, a true WR1. Kearse has been a valuable addition while Forte and Powell are steady. Forte has turf toe this week. The Jets have a tough schedule, but could go 8-8 if their play as a unit continues to improve. At this point, they look better than Miami at least.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (2-1), First Place (Tie)

Baltimore once more spent their draft capital on Defence, leaving bags of room for improvement on Offence. Nothing new here – Move along!

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1), First Place (Tie)      

Nothing new here either. Everyone is a year older. Rookie TJ Watt is interesting. Expect the status quo.

Cleveland Browns (0-3), Last Place (Tie)

The Browns are putting on a show starring Kizer. The Defence is starting to play well. Garrett is practicing and they could have as many as two wins by the end of next month.

Cincinnati Bengals (0-3), Last Place (Tie)

The Bengals once had a great staff (Zimmer, Gruden, Jackson etc.), but those days are gone. Not generally interested in change for the sake of change, it is possible that after 15 years Marvin Lewis is out of ideas. Does it really matter if they pass Cleveland?

AFC South

Tennessee Titans (2-1), First Place (Tie)

We still have a ton of questions about the Titans after losing their home opener to a not very good Raiders team. They will have faced each Division rival by the end of next month when we hope to know more. Head Coach Mike Mularkey is a liability.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1), First Place (Tie)    

Head Coach Doug Marrone Mularkey is an asset. Quarterback Blake Bortles is a liability. Completely unreliable.

Indianapolis Colts (1-2), Last Place (Tie)

The Colts could have the two best Quarterbacks in the division under contract. It will be a lot to ask of Brissett, but if he goes into Seattle and pulls off the upset like Keenum did in 2015, Jacoby could turn over a team with a winning record and a share of first place when Luck ultimately returns.

Houston Texans (1-2), Last Place (Tie)

We thought Bill O’Brien was blowing smoke about Watson and that he would be a complete disaster, but he actually seems to be getting better. As Watson goes, so go the Texans.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0), First Place

The new Running Back (Hunt) looks like the real deal, but the rest of Kansas City are the same old gimmicks and tricks common to Reid Regular-Season Refuse. Kansas City is not a serious team.

Denver Broncos (2-1), Second Place (Tie)       

You may remember us mentioning how Trevor Siemian was starting to choke at the end of the Chargers game. He was fine in the Dallas blowout, but threw a terrible interception in Buffalo, which allowed the Bills to go up two scores late in the fourth quarter. You can cut Trevor a little slack because he has under 20 starts. We will see Chad Kelly at some point, though not this season if Siemian gets through this.

Oakland Raiders (2-1), Second Place (Tie)

Everyone keeps arguing with us about Derek Carr, Marshawn Lynch and the Raiders, We have never been impressed by Carr and attribute the Raiders 12-4 record last season to good luck, both with the schedule and Head Coach Jack Del Rio’s gambles late in game. Del Rio is the one part of the whole Raiders thing that we like. October should give us a better idea of where the team truly is.

Los Angeles Chargers (0-3), Last Place

We thought the Chargers would compete in a vastly overrated Division, but they continue to be snake-bitten and injury prone with a penchant for losing close games at the end. They can get on a streak, but need to pretty much win all of their upcoming games this month to climb back in it.

The NFL in the Moment – Friday – 9.30 pm EDT – Week Four 2017

What a dreadful game last night. Down 14-0 early, the Bears panicked, turned the ball over, tried passing, turned the ball over some more…Not pretty. No team can give Aaron Rodgers four [4] extra possessions at Lambeau and expect to win. It turns out Glennon does throw more interceptions than Winston still. This Bears team is good enough to make a run at the playoffs if they can get someone under center who won’t stab them in the heart every other week. Case Keenum, Matt Cassel, Jacoby Brissett and other should be available  before the NFL Trade Deadline at the end of October.

Davante Adams was taken off the field in a stretcher after taking a hit to the helmet from Bears linebacker Danny Trevathan. Slow motion replays are deceiving. When I was watching the play live, Adams was refusing to go down when Trevathan launched himself with his helmet aimed at spiking the ball. In the split second that Trevathan was in the air, Adams legs looked like they finally buckled on the and his head dropped about 18 inches. You could see by they way the Bears reacted that the entire thing was unintentional.

What was intentional was Trevathan was trying to spear the ball with his helmet. Adams was fighting to stay upright and suddenly dragged down after Trevathan launched. When a defender does spike the ball with his helmet and creates a turnover accolades rain down on him. It needs to be banned. With all the focus on CTE and player safety these days, it should become a 15-yard personal foul anytime a player uses his helmet to spear anything, period.

As for instant replays, player do not have the luxury of slowing down a play before committing themselves and Officials must call the game at full speed. Use the replays by all means, but if their isn’t conclusive evidence to overturn the Officials call at regular speeds, the call on the field should stand.

The NFL in the Moment – Thursday – 9.30 pm EDT – Week Four 2017

1st Qtr 0-14 13/2 Chicago Bears   @   Green Bay Packers 1/14

If you did bet the Bears, the rain delay will work in their favor and betting another half-stake at 13/2 will double your profit if they can come back. We were encouraged by the two consecutive stout 3-and-outs by Chicago’ Defence as well as their ability to start getting first downs with the run.

This game is far from over, and if the Bears score seven on their current drive and then prevent the Packers from scoring a third straight time, it could become pretty tight by halftime. We still expect Chicago’s Front Seven and Offensive Line to take over, especially on a field that is now drenched. In the second half. 

The NFL in the Moment – Thursday – 8 pm EDT – Week Four 2017

6/5 Detroit Lions   @   Minnesota Vikings 5/7

We have to warn you that we could not get or regular Money Line Odds for this game, but they are accurate. Although the mainstream media continues to make Keenum the butt of their jokes, the betting public is behind him, which is all that matters to us. Too bad. Getting the Vikings at home at better than even money may be over, but after watching Tom Brady score on every possession in Detroit during preseason for over a quarter we were left with zero faith in the Lions Defence.

Keenum reminds us a lot of the Tom Brady from mid-2003 with about 40 starts under his belt. Keenum only has 26 starts, but has been in the league longer. We are not saying for a second that Keenum is becoming Brady. What we are saying is that Keenum is mentally tough, has an incredible drive to win, and has learned how to play within his limitations in the NFL. He has an amazing work ethic, a great attitude and a sunny disposition. 

Keenum can throw the ball with very good accuracy and touch up to 40-50 yards down field and get rid of it safely when under duress. We do believe that Keenum should be starting ahead of several Quarterbacks now starting for other teams and that he is in fact a starting caliber NFL Quarterback. Bet Minnesota at 5/7 and enjoy what should be a good show.

The NFL in the Moment – Thursday – 7 pm EDT – Week Four 2017

5/8 New Orleans Saints   vs   Miami Dolphins 7/5 in England

Not a good game to bet. Jay Cutler is back to being Jay Cutler, meaning he plays well only when there is little or no pressure on him to perform. With the Saints, you never know about the Defence. Not a good game to bet.

10/17 Cincinnati Bengals   @   Cleveland Browns 6/4

We liked the Bengals to beat the Packers last week, but they could not close the deal. Dalton has lost badly in Cleveland in the past. The Browns are the Browns. Pass.

10/17 Jacksonville Jaguars   @   New York Jets 6/4

Which Blake Bortles will show up in New York? Will the Jets young team continue to play disciplined? Neither price is attractive.

4/5 Tennessee Titans   @   Houston Texans 21/20

This game is a bit risky, but so long as Deshaun Watson does not take a step backwards, Houston’s Defence should dominate at home. Take Houston at 21/20 indoors where the Titan’s run game should be less effective.

5/8 Pittsburgh Steelers   @   Baltimore Ravens 7/5

It is starting to look more and more like Ben Roethlisberger’s fire is going out and that his offseason retirement talk might have had some truth to it. The Ravens always play the Steelers well, and we never take anything that happens in a London game at face value. We like Baltimore at 7/5 at home.

13/4 Buffalo Bills   @   Atlanta Falcons 2/9

We believe the Atlanta Falcons to be vastly overrated and very much like what McDermott is doing in Buffalo. The Bills were winning BEFORE Siemian’s lame duck interception, and we would expect Denver to demolish Atlanta. The Falcon’s Defence still is not very good, but the Bills is. Bet Buffalo at 13/4 with aplomb.  

7/2 Carolina Panthers   @   New England Patriots 1/5

It is easiest, though never easy, to beat a Belichick coached team in the first quarter of the season. Sunday will essentially be the Patriots final tune-up before they start to get serious about 2017 and maybe put Hightower back on the field. As well, teams generally play their best game against New England, treating Patriots Week as their Super Bowl for the year, especially NFC teams. Putting this together with the Patriots at 1/5, it does not make the risk worth the reward. Should be fun to watch though.

12/5 Los Angeles Rams   @   Dallas Cowboys 5/14

We can honestly say that we never thought we would advise anyone to bet real money on Jared Goff, but the Cowboys really are a lousy football team. Last we heard, they had converted to a Pistol Offence. Doubtless because Dak Prescott, the Cowboy’s Offensive Line, or both are out of their depth in a Pro Offence. The Dallas Defence is also not very good. The Rams may not be for real either, but at 12/5 are at least worth a flier. The way Arizona and Seattle are playing, the Rams could win the NFC West.

21/20 Philadelphia Eagles   @   Los Angeles Chargers 4/5

We had to double-check the injury list to see if anyone else (beyond Fletcher Cox) had gone down during the Giants game when we saw the odds on this one. Jim Schwartz continues to do an amazing job with the Eagles Defence while the Chargers can’t buy a win. With 4/5ths of the Charger Offensive Line either injured or suspended, it should surprise no one that LA cannot score enough points to win a game. Philadelphia almost won in Kansas City. The 21/20 Eagles will win in Los Angeles to even their record vs the AFC West at 1-1 with the other two games later on and at home.

7/5 New York Giants   @   Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5/8

Two badly coached teams with inconsistent Quarterbacks meet in Tampa Bay. We have no feel for this game whatsoever.

5/2 San Francisco 49ers   @   Arizona Cardinals 1/3

Kyle Shanahan will break his maiden as a head coach with the hard luck 49ers soon. He was robbed against the Rams last week (see previous post). At this point in their careers, Hoyer is a much better Quarterback than Palmer is, but that is no praise really considering Palmer should be out of the league. Bruce Arians has never had an NFL caliber Quarterback during his tenure in Arizona, which is not his fault but will get him fired nevertheless. Taking San Francisco at 5/2 is a good risk/reward ratio.

13/10 Oakland Raiders   @   Denver Broncos   4/6

We were hoping to get better than even money on the Broncos after the poor showing Siemian had in Buffalo, but alas, there will be no free lunch. We can’t see Carr faring any better against Aqib Talib and the boys than he did against the Redskins, and perhaps the rarified air in Denver will allow Trevor to toss the ball all the way out of bounds. A half-stake bet on Denver at 4/6 may be the best play. Or pass.

13/2 Indianapolis Colts   @   Seattle Seahawks 1/10

The fast improving Jacoby Brissett gets his first visit to the Hawks Nest in Seattle in prime time on SNF. We have heard many excuses, but Seattle’s Defence is getting older and their Offensive Line is a disaster. The Seahawks loss to the Tennessee Titans, who need to prove that they can win against teams like the Texans (which we seriously doubt), is troubling. Case Keenum paid boxcars in his first win in Seattle, and Brissett is more than double the odds that Keenum was. The Colts at 13/2 could represent the weekend’s best value on SNF.

5/2 Washington Redskins   @   Kansas City Chiefs 1/3

Unless you reckon Kansas City is going 16-0, or at least 8-0 at home, you have to consider the way the Redskins Defence is playing right now in this moment. We expect the Washington secondary to deal with the passing game and their front seven to bottle up Kareem Hunt. All that leaves are the Chiefs gimmicks, which the more tape they create, the easier they will be to defend against. Since Kirk Cousins costly interception Week One, he has not thrown another. We expect a very close game, but with the wide disparity in the odds, we have to bet the Redskins at 5/2.

The NFL in the Moment – Thursday – 5 pm EDT – Week Four 2017

3/1 Chicago Bears   @   Green Bay Packers 1/4

It is hard to imagine exactly what the Bears need to do to get some respect. Winners against the Steelers at 11/4, the Bears at 3/1 here represent outstanding value. The Packers Offensive Line is riddled with injury, whether their Tackles play or not. No matter how bad the Bears have been recently, they always play the Packers well. Chicago won in Green Bay two years ago, and this team is much better. John Fox is the much better Head Coach.

The NFL in the Moment – Thursday - 11 am EDT – Week Four 2017

Happy Thursday everyone. Have you ever noticed how easy it is to spot the shortcomings of someone else, yet be unable to see your own? It is an ageless axiom, as in the story where יֵשׁוּעַ (Yeshua) in Matthew 7:5 says “You hypocrite, first take the log out of your own eye, and then you will see clearly to take the speck out of your brother’s eye” and all that? There you have the reason why the Washington Redskins Defence can shut down a “not as good as it looks” Raiders Offence.

Scot McCloughan, famous for acquiring late round gems on Defence like Richard Sherman (and a ton of others) took over in Washington in 2015 and the Redskins used his “list” for the 2015, 2016 and 2017 drafts. So McCloughan came in, kept what he liked, and drafted a bunch of players. This spring, Bruse Allen’s coup to unseat McCloughan succeeded (enough said) and Allen then kept what he liked of the original roster, kept the players he like that McCloughan brought in and brought in Free Agents to offset what he saw as McCloughan’s shortcomings.

The result is a dynamite Defence that has only lost to a very good Philadelphia squad, in this moment. How long it lasts is anyone’s guess. It is the result of conventional boom-and-bust roster building, and as such has the potential for large swings in its effectiveness if, when and as injuries occur. Sunday night’s game was a good indicator of where both teams truly are from a quality standpoint. Washington looks like a playoff team, but at this point they have a lot to overcome to get there. Their Week Seven return game in Philadelphia is a must-win, and the NFL’s Cowboys friendly bias is very real.

Dallas remains the most popular team in the NFL and the league believes that love them or hate them, people will watch. Well, we have. We watched the Cowboys beat Pittsburgh and Minnesota last season, and their Offensive Line got away with a lot of egregious holding. This season, the loss of Doug Free has really hurt. Arizona was about to go up 17-0 going into half-time until the officials started playing games. They were calling holding, but only against Arizona, and instead of playing with a big lead, it was 7-7 at the half. So overcoming the Cowboys bias could be a problem for Washington AND Philadelphia.

The Raiders on the other hand showed their true colors. To date, Derek Carr has not beaten a playoff team that wasn’t quarterbacked by Brock Osweiler. The Raiders took advantage of a soft schedule last season, when they recorded the lowest positive point differential (net points of +31) of any team in the history of the NFL that went 12-4 or better. This season, the schedule is much tougher and we fully expect the Raiders to go into their Bye Week below 0.500 and to lose more games than they win after their Bye Week. It is what it is.

It seems that we are the only people on the planet that were not surprised by the performances by Jacoby Brissett, Case Keenum and Josh McCown. The Bears Defence and the Bears running game also seem to have escaped general notice. Case Keenum is a good football player who has been on a bunch of bad teams. Josh McCown is a good football player who has been on a bunch of bad teams. McCown was better than Cutler was in Chicago, so we have no idea why McCown being better than Cutler is last week surprised anyone. Brissett, drafted higher than Prescott was by a significantly superior organization, now has some badly needed experience and is starting to turn into a competent NFL Quarterback.

Neither were we surprised at the outcome in Carolina, specifically the performance of Cam Newton. Newton will have pocketed over $89 million dollars of Jerry Richardson’s money by the end of this season and will carry a $35,166,666.66 Dead Cap charge into the 2018 season, so the Panthers are essentially stuck with him. Newton’s performance meanwhile is tracking Josh Freeman’s a lot closer than it is Tom Brady’s. When a player is more concerned about what he is going to wear for the cameras than how he is performing on the field, there is a serious lack of focus. He reminds us a great deal of Albert Haynesworth in his attitude.

Deshaun Watson was a mild surprise in New England. Initially, we expected him to be a complete disaster, but were forced to reconsider after he won his second start against the Bengals, who are not as bad as their 0-3 record suggests. If not for the bogus Pass Interference call on Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots would have gone into halftime up a couple of scores and blown the game wide open with a Touchdown to open the second half. More interceptions may have followed. Whatever the case, Watson is getting better with every start. We were wrong (not for the first time either) about Watson.

After watching Trevor Siemian underachieve in Buffalo, we may yet see the guy who lost his Clemson gig to Watson, Chad Kelly, come Week Eight. The Broncos already know that Paxton Lynch is not the answer, although they will probably give him a shot before getting around to Kelly. Indeed, the Broncos would probably need to be out of the playoff race to start Kelly this season. Siemian has now had 17 starts, so if he continues to make plays like the Interception he threw against the Bills, Elway’s patience will wear thin rather quickly. We expect Denver to beat the Raiders at home easily, so if they don’t, it will be interesting to see if Lynch gets the ball after the Broncos early Bye Week (Week Five).

The only performance that completely surprised us was Blake Bortles. The Ravens have a decent Defence but the wildly inconsistent Bortles put up the highest passer rating (128.2) of his career on Sunday. We already sang Doug Marrone’s praises after week one, but a bad Quarterback can kill any good team no matter how well coached they are. Ray Lewis, who travelled with the Ravens to London, said on Inside the NFL that the Ravens were not focussed on football. If that is the reason, will they be able to focus on Pittsburgh? A good game to avoid entirely.

We certainly don’t have a problem with Marrone’s fake punt call. In the first place, there is no way to recreate the conditions for that play in practice, and it could be needed down the road. It forces other teams to spend practice time going forward. Most importantly, it could come into consideration ae the end of the season. In such an even division, two or three teams could finish with identical Won/Lost, Divisional and Conference records, and in a three-way tie it could get to the seventh tiebreaker (best combined ranking among AFC teams in points scored and points allowed). The Patriots keep their foot on the gas for 60 minutes, and it seems to work out pretty well for them.

The NFL at the Moment - NFL 2015 Week Four Results

“Week Four has usually been good to us. Quite often, the teams we liked Week Three that found a way to lose have turned it around in Week Four and paid a better price because of it.” This year was no different however in our feature game of the week, indeed our favorite game the entire first quarter of the season, there was no way to know in advance that Jaguars rookie place kicker Jason Myers would fold up entirely when an important game was on the line by missing two field goals in the fourth quarter and another in overtime. Curiously, Myers was signed this season to replace the goat from Thursday night’s Steelers loss (Scobee) who also missed twice in the fourth quarter and then caused Pittsburgh to go for it (and fail) on fourth down twice in overtime. The Colts had no trouble there as they have had Adam Vinatieri since New England replaced him with Gotskowski at the other end of the spectrum (the end where kickers make every extra point and almost every field goal - Gotskowski hasn't missed anything since a 47 yard field goal attempt at Lambeau in November of 2014 and the last time he missed an extra point was in the second half of his final game as a rookie way back in 2006).

San Francisco managed to hold Green Bay to 17 points however the 49ers could only muster 3 points of their own as Kaepernick managed to attain a passer rating of only 55.3 which, although much better than last week’s 16.7, was contrasted by Aaron Rodgers 99 (the first time this season Rodgers has been under 100) as the Packers won easily. The single touchdown the 49ers needed to cover the 8 1/2 point spread was never imminent. 

In other games, as predicted, most of the teams we liked in Week 3 did bounce back Week 4 with the Bears, Jets and Giants all winning

Thursday Night Football

5/7 Baltimore Ravens -2.5   AT   6/5 Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) O/U 43.5

Selection:  Pittsburgh Steelers @ 6/5 - 3 Units/ 6/5 Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 - 3 Units/6

Result - BAL 23   PIT 20

As mentioned above, Scobee is now looking for a new job as he cost the Steelers a valuable divisional win.

Sunday's Games

7/2 Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.0)   AT   1/5 Indianapolis Colts (-9.0) O/U 48

Selection:  Jacksonville Jaguars @ 7/2 - 20 Units/31

Result – IND 16   JAC 13

While the Jaguars learned that they need a real NFL placekicker, they also learned that they have a team capable of winning their division. A divisional road win would have been huge for them and the fact that they put themselves in position to win the game three times over (Myers three missed field goals) has got to be encouraging. Colt’s backup QB Matt Hasselback actually played better than Andrew Luck has been playing so there is no shame there.

2/1 New York Giants (+5.5)   AT   5/12 Buffalo Bills (-5.5) O/U 46.5 

Selection:  New York Giants @ 2/1 - 5 Units/11

Result – NYG 24   BUF 10

Nice to get the entire game correct with the Giants taking their show on the road to the Ralph where Eli Manning offset his first interception of the season with three (3) touchdowns, none of which was to Beckham. Ryan may have taken Beckham virtually out of the game with his defence but all that did was open up the game to the other guys. New York’s defence, although much maligned and missing arguably their best player (JPP), had little trouble limiting the press’s current “15 minutes off fame” favorite Tyrod “Car Part” Taylor to ten (10) points. It turns out the Bills Week One win over the Colts doesn’t really mean anything as the Colts would be 0-4 if Jacksonville had a proper placekicker or Tennessee had a proper coach whereas there are significant problems with the other team the Bills beat, the Dolphins, especially with Regis’s brother Joe Philbin whom it looks like owner Ross is finally going to fire today (Monday)* at a scheduled press conference. As such, there is no way to tell if this year’s model of the Bills is any better, or even as good, as the team that went 9-7 last season. After the Bills go into Jacksonville Week Seven we will have a better idea but right now they continue to get bet, opening at 8/11 for their Week Five visit to Tennessee.

*Ross did indeed fire Philbin on Monday

5/2 St. Louis Rams (+7)   AT   1/3 Arizona Cardinals (-7) O/U 42.5 

Selection:  St. Louis Rams @ 5/2 - 5 Units/ St. Louis Rams (+7) - 5 Units/41

Result – NYG 24   BUF 10

The Rams did match up well against Carson Palmer and Nick Foles did start scoring some points as the Rams moved into second place in the NFC West (they are still 11/2 to win the division) where if they tie with the Cardinal’s it would be broken by this win (so far in any case). The running game did have Chris Johnson averaging over 5 yards a carry for the Cards but the Rams wunderkid Todd Gurley, who did play a prominent role in this one in his second start off the shelf by burning for 155 yards (mostly in the second half). Nick Foles did his part by putting up passer rating of 126.9 on the strength of his 3 TD’s/0 INT’s. The Rams seem to play much better any time they are 5/2 or better and get yet another chance to pay off big at Lambeau this Sunday where they opened at over 4/1 (17/4) for their road game against the Packers, another team the Rams match up well with on paper.

5/19 Green Bay Packers (-8.5)   AT   29/10 San Francisco 49ers (+8.5) O/U 48.5

Selection:  San Francisco 49ers @ 29/10 - 3 Units/ San Francisco 49ers (+8.5) - 9 Units/47

Result – GB 17   SF 3

It is hard to gauge just where the 49errs fit into the overall order of things with Kaepernick putting a passer rating of only 55.3 at home meanwhile the Packers continued to appear able to do no wrong.

NYJ   @   MIA   (London, UK) 

Result – NYJ 27   MIA 14

The Jets played like everyone was expecting them to last week and certainly paid off higher than they would have had they entered the game 3-0. New York looks to be the only possible team that can threaten the Patriots this season (apart from the Patriots themselves of course) although Fitzpatrick has never posted a winning record for a season in any of the ten (10) years he has been in the league (he was 4-4 in 2009 and 6-6 last year).

No Selection

PHI   @   WAS

Result – WAS 23   PHI 20

As feared, the Eales did not win or cover the spread at 10/17 when Kirk Cousins led the Redskins on an improbable 90-yard drive to erase a three-point deficit. The Eagles still have a lot to do.

No Selection

CAR   @   TB

CAR 37   TB 23

We could have broken our rule and bet the Panthers at 10/17 as Tampa gave up 37 with a pick six and two other interceptions in Tampa territory (out of four (4) total interceptions that Winston threw), however, that strategy is not profitable in the long run.

No Selection

OAK   @   CHI

Result – CHI 22   @   OAK 20

Cutler did play, it was hard to believe that Chicago brought in Fox to lay down and the Raiders did lose on the road. This is why it is much better to leave these games alone as a firm rule.

No Selection

KC   @   CIN

Result – CIN 36   @   KC 21

It turns out that the Bengals did dominate as their defence seem back to its old self. Too risky.

No Selection

HOU   @   ATL

Result – ATL 48   HOU 21

It is amazing how well Dan Quinn has the Falcon defence playing. While Quinn is certainly due the bulk of the credit one must wonder just how bad of a job Smith started doing on both sides of the ball for Atlanta to have tanked so badly in 2013 and 2014.

No Selection

CLE   @   SD

SD 30   CLE 27

This game ended up a lot closer than many expected. We wonder how many more games the Browns need to lose before Manziel gets the nod to start.

No Selection

MIN   @   DEN

DEN 23   MIN 20

Bridgewater dropped the ball (literally) late to snuff out any comeback.

No Selection

Sunday Night Football

DAL   @   NO

NO 26   DAL 20

Brandon Weeden did actually put together a fourth quarter drive and a touchdown for the first time in years to send the game to overtime but Brees drove the field after the OT kickoff foregoing any further chance for Dallas.

No Selection

Monday Night Football

DET   @   SEA

The Lions did everything they needed to win this game but the officials erroneously took the ball from them on the one-yard line with under a minute left and gave it to Seattle. Crazy stuff indeed

No Selection

The NFL at the Moment - NFL 2015 Week Four

Week Four has usually been good to us. Quite often, the teams we liked Week Three that found a way to lose have turned it around in Week Four and paid a better price because of it. Sunday September 30th, 2001 was actually Week Three nevertheless we won huge backing Tom Brady to win his first start ever in the NFL over Peyton Manning of all people, cashing one $2 six team parlay for over $400 and starting a period of about three and one half years where the Patriots paid too much.

Thursday Night Football

5/7 Baltimore Ravens -2.5   AT   6/5 Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) O/U 43.5

Not sure whether the Ravens are favored because of Roethlisberger’s knee injury or the fact that they need to win to avoid an 0-4 start. Either way is nonsense. Look for the Steelers to rally around Mike Vick (they won with Charlie Batch the last time Ben was hurt) and take advantage of a leaderless Ravens defence.

Selection:  Pittsburgh Steelers @ 6/5 - 3 Units/ 6/5 Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 - 3 Units/6

Sunday's Games

2/1 New York Giants (+5.5)   AT   5/12 Buffalo Bills (-5.5) O/U 46.5

We wonder how long the public’s honeymoon with Rex Ryan will last? The Bills beat Miami last week, a severely dysfunction franchise at this time led by an out-of-touch Joe Philbin. The Giants meanwhile look much better this season with Eli Manning performing like a top ten QB again. If the Giants are going to the play-offs this season they will need to win as many marginal games like this as they can and 2/1 is a more than fair price.

Selection:  New York Giants @ 2/1 - 5 Units/11

7/2 Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.0)   AT   1/5 Indianapolis Colts (-9.0) O/U 48

Teams now have the Colts number and are succeeding in taking advantage of their many problem areas as long as they get a fair shake from the officials. The Jaguars 51-17 loss to the Patriots surprisingly had a number of bright spots while Indianapolis was life-and-death to defeat a woeful Tennessee Titans team led by a very raw rookie. We believe that Luck is extremely overrated and that Bortles will turn out to be the better QB of the two and figure that the teams are well matched and pretty much equal at this point. As such we suggest taking advantage of the huge discrepancy in the odds and to bet big. Getting a game like this right can make your season.

Selection:  Jacksonville Jaguars @ 7/2 - 20 Units/31

5/2 St. Louis Rams (+7)   AT   1/3 Arizona Cardinals (-7) O/U 42.5

The Rams figure to match up well against Carson Palmer and Nick Foles is due to start scoring some points with the Rams however we are afraid of Chris Johnson and the Cardinal’s running game. Todd Gurley could play a prominent role in this one in his second start off the shelf. We do not think that Carson Palmer can keep his undefeated string going and like the Rams any time they are 5/2 or better.

Selection:  St. Louis Rams @ 5/2 - 5 Units/ St. Louis Rams (+7) - 5 Units/41

5/19 Green Bay Packers (-8.5)   AT   29/10 San Francisco 49ers (+8.5) O/U 48.5

Unless you reckon that Green Bay is going 14-2 or better they are going to lose a few road games and have had their problems in San Fran in the past. We do not believe that the Packer defence has solved their problems against the run either and on the road is where we expect this to show. We like the 49ers to win this one however not too much. Bet small here.

Selection:  San Francisco 49ers @ 29/10 - 3 Units/ San Francisco 49ers (+8.5) - 9 Units/47

NYJ   @   MIA   (London, UK)

With both teams hovering around even money no real play here. Both teams will be wildly inconsistent all season so there needs to be a pretty compelling reason to back either. 

No Selection

PHI   @   WAS

The Eagles will most probably win this game to even their record at 2-2 however at 10/17 the reward does not equate with the risk. There are other, better games to bet.

No Selection

CAR   @   TB

We are almost tempted to break our rule and bet the Panthers at 10/17 as Tampa shold be a much better price than 6/4 nevertheless Pass.

No Selection

OAK   @   CHI

The Raiders are favored on the road? When was the last time that happened? It looks like Chicago is gunning for the first overall pick in the draft but you never know. Stick to playing the Raiders at home, at least for now.

No Selection

KC   @   CIN

You can’t bet on Alex Smith and you can’t bet on Andy Dalton. Don’t bet on this game.

No Selection

HOU   @   ATL

Houston is going to win some games this year. Problem is we don’t know which games as Ryan Mallett is way too unpredictable. Meanwhile, it is hard to believe that Dan Quinn can go 9-0 with a team that went 6-10 last year however Andy Reid did something similar when he took over the Chiefs. The Texans are the team you can bet at 12/5 but we don’t recommend it.

No Selection

CLE   @   SD

The Browns just lost at home to the Raiders and now travel to the left coast to take on a Chargers squad that loses (and wins) games in bunches and has already lost two straight.  It is too hard to bet Josh McCown and at 5/19 there is no money in betting the Chargers small – Bet them big or not at all – We suggest the latter.

No Selection

MIN   @   DEN

Adrian Peterson vs the Bronco’s “D” – Unstoppable force meets immovable object. If Teddy Bridgewater were any good we would take a flyer on the Vikings – But he isn’t so we will pass.

No Selection

Sunday Night Football

DAL   @   NO

There is no line on this one yet as the Saints do not know if Brees is starting or not yet. Either way we can neither recommend betting on Brandon Weeden nor recommend betting on the Saints as they have no defence and Rob Ryan is a terrible DC. If Brees starts the Saints will most probably win but even Weeden might beat them if Dallas can score enough in the first half before the wheels for off – Bad game all around

No Selection

Monday Night Football

DET   @   SEA

The Lions are winless so far this season and turning that around in Seattle is a dubious prospect. The Lions look destined to have yet another 4-12 season but things are in such disarray in Seattle that we would not recommend betting the Seahawks either. The perfect ending to a week where the favorites appear destined to win way more than half the games – We just don’t know which ones for certain.

No Selection