The NFL in the Moment – Monday – 8.25pm EDT – Week Six 2017

It was enjoyable watching the Giants win last night. As we have previously stated (below, in several places), the Giants play much better without Odell Beckham.  Play calling is an art, and good play calling requires a tremendous amount of feedback so as to get into the flow of the game. McAdoo may have been a good play caller in the past, but as a Head Coach he simply does not have the time to focus on the job at hand. Tomorrow, we will do a write up about betting, coaching and Quarterbacks to explain why what is happening this season is happening the way that it is.

23/10 Indianapolis Colts (+7)   @   7/20 Tennessee Titans (-7) 

We never have been on the Mariota bandwagon. On the other hand, we have liked Jacoby Brissett from day one, and have seen steady improvement. We have an inkling that Brissett has some degree of “it”, the thing that makes some Quarterbacks significantly better than the rest of the pack, and just have a feeling that he is going to be the next Warren Moon (we think Deshaun Watson is the next Robert Griffin, a story for another day). PFF has Brissett graded at #13 and Mariota at #19, and Brissett has a slightly higher Passer Rating. Tonight, we expect the Quarterback who plays the best to win, and believe that Brissett is ready to break out after his first 300-yard game last week. Despite having 25 more starts, Mariota also has but on 300-yarder. It is only fitting that the favorite lose this game as well, so we bet the Colts at 5/2 this morning.

The NFL in the Moment – Sunday – 10:15pm EDT – Week Six 2017

What a day! For the second consecutive week, we went 6-1 on our main picks. The only bet we lost was the one on the Jets, and that game would have gone to Overtime if not for the “worst call of the day" (according to Rodney Harrison at least) that wiped a perfectly good Jets Touchdown off the board.

12/5 New York Giants   @   5/14 Denver Broncos   

We never did bet on the Chargers. This week they won on the last play of the game, but you may as well play roulette. After watching the first quarter of the Giants game, during which we learned that McAdoo finally gave up trying to call the Offence, and with the Giants up by three [3] points, we checked the in-game market. So many people bet Denver (they were 2/15 the last we checked before kick-off), New York was still 12/5 so we bet a three-quarter stake on the Giants. The Broncos may still win (17-3 at the half), but this illustrates perfectly why we don’t bet favorites.

The NFL in the Moment – Sunday – 10am EDT – Week Six 2017

In-Depth Selections – Top 5 Games

Here are the five [5] best games to watch and wager on for 2017 Week Six

6/1 Miami Dolphins   @   1/9 Atlanta Falcons

This game is being bet off the board with Atlanta entering “bridge jumper” territory on the overnight and dropping to ten cents on the dollar. There are many reasons for this. Going into the season, many “experts” had the Dolphins making the playoffs again this season, even after “Smokin’ Jay Cutler” blew into town. Unfortunately, hurricane Irma blew in not long after Jay and disrupted the first quarter of Miami’s season more than they would like. With DeVante Parker out, it is time for rookie speed merchant Jakeem Grant (Mighty Mouse) to step up and lay claim to the WR3 spot.

The Dolphins currently own the top Scoring Defence in the NFL, and although they were forced to take their Bye Week in Week One because of Irma, they are still ahead of Denver, who had their Bye Week already as well. We mention this because of the contrast in the odds, with Miami at 6/1 and Denver bet down to 2/13 (at home). Miami’s losses to the Jets and Saints are contributing mightily to their high odds, but the mostly re-built Saints Defence is starting to play as a unit, and we do after all believe that the Jets are going to gibe the Patriots a game (see below).

Atlanta, on the other hand, is the most overrated team in the NFC, and perhaps the NFL, although we believe that one goes to Kansas City. Matt Ryan is NOT an Elite Quarterback, and the only reason he won the MVP last season was that they refused to give the award to Brady because he was suspended. Brady won as many games as Ryan did during the regular season (11), while losing but once, and finished the year with three [3] playoff wins (including the Super Bowl OVER Ryan where Brady did get the MVP) to go 14-1 overall. Ryan ended up 13-6. It was not even close. Atlanta will be missing Sanu today, and Julio Jones is playing but unlikely to be at the top of his game because of his hip.

The Falcon’s Head Coach Dan Quinn is also extremely overrated. Belichick (and/or McDaniels) toyed with him in the second half of the Super Bowl, punctuated by the way the way he manipulated Quinn to put the wrong personnel on the field for both of New England’s two-point tries when a stop on either would have given Atlanta the win. Quinn’s Defence is vastly overrated. Mike Glennon was a missed holding call and/or a drop by Howard away from completing the game-winning drive in Week One in Chicago, and he isn’t even a Starting Quarterback anymore. Teams can run the ball against the Falcons, as shown by Buffalo just last game. Jay Ajayi has another (potential) 200 yard game in him, and today may be the day. It isn’t very often that you get the chance to bet a team you like better than their opponent at 6/1. Just say thank you. Of course, Atlanta can win at home, but I wouldn’t bet on it!

         

2/9 New England Patriots   @   13/4 New York Jets

The Patriots have long struggled with the Jets in New York. Current Jets HC Bowles is 1-1 since taking over in 2015, and he did that with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Josh McCown is steady, if unspectacular, and Bowles has his young Defence stepping lively. New York has won both of their Home Games so far, putting up 23 points on a smart, equally young Jaguars Defence.

The Patriots meanwhile are uncharacteristically struggling. Although Tom Brady is an impressive 24-8 against the Jets, he has lost in New York two of the past four years, and he hasn’t won by 9 or more points (today’s spread) in New York since 2012. The Patriot’s Nation may believe that New England is going to kill the Jets, but the Patriot Team most probably does not. Interestingly, if Miami does win and New England comes up short, the Patriots will be in last place in the AFC East in October for the first time perhaps since realignment. It will be good for them and may provide the spark they need to start playing with desperation.

         

5/8 Green Bay Packers   @   7/5 Minnesota Vikings

Both Green Bay Offensive Tackles (Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari) are injured, which is not the time you want to visit your Division’s toughest Defence. Due to Michael Floyd’s suspension, he spent training camp with the “twos” along with the Viking’s Quarterback for this game, Case Keenum. The chemistry that they developed in the summer could be the determining factor in this game. We were expecting Minnesota to debut Stevan Ridley in this game, signed when Dalvin Cook went down. Instead, they cut Ridley. We are hoping that it was because they found something that works better. This may be the last chance to get Minnesota at better than evens without the threat of wasting a week’s preparation on Bradford looming over it, so we are taking it.

7/4 Pittsburgh Steelers   @   10/21 Kansas City Chiefs    

Two things are going to happen inevitably, and today is as good a day as any for them to. First, Pittsburgh is going to get past Le’Veon Bell’s holdout this season and Martavis Bryant’s suspension for all of last season. Second, unless you believe Kansas City is going 16-0 with a bashed-up Defence, the Chiefs are going to lose a game. Or five. The schedule was very fortunate for Kansas City, as they got New England and Philadelphia (most probably the toughest opponents along with this game outside of their Division) before either team got rolling (the Patriots are still not rolling). We believe Pittsburgh to be the superior team and bet them when they opened at 9/5.

12/5 Chicago Bears   @   5/14 Baltimore Ravens    

The Bears were missing Danny Trevathan when they allowed Case Keenum to score on three of his five drives last Monday. Trubisky looked okay under center, but the Bears are not going to win games with his arm just yet. The Ravens are coming off a win over the tremendously overrated Oakland Raiders which has to be a factor in the odds. We expect a dull, low scoring game in which the Bears have almost as good a chance of winning as the Ravens, that can go either way on the margin of error alone. When you take the odds into account, the Bears are the play. We bet them at 5/2 earlier in the week.

Honorable Mention

8/5 Los Angeles Chargers   @   5/9 Oakland Raiders        

We had the Raiders pegged as a 5-11 team going into the season, and nothing has happened to change that assessment (look below for reams about why Oakland is so overrated if you are interested). We thought, on the other hand, that the Chargers would contend for the Division, which they would be if not for the Korean Experiment. The better odds on Chicago and the Wild Fires took us off this game, but it certainly is bettable.

Indianapolis Colts   @   Tennessee Titans

This is an odd one. If Cassel starts, the Colts are likely to be favored, and we might play Tennessee. If Mariota starts, the Titans will likely be favored, in which case we would play the Colts. We most probably won’t touch it.

The NFL in the Moment – Saturday – 9.30pm EDT – Week Six 2017

The pertinent facts in this moment…

11/2 Miami Dolphins   @   1/8 Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are not a very good team. They should have lost to Chicago and Detroit and there was a lot of nonsense at the end of the first half vs Green Bay concerning rub routes at the end of the first half. Matt Ryan was a bogus MVP. Miami has a lot of the parts on Defence. Jay Cutler can play every bit as well as Matt Ryan. Thee teams are about the same. The odds are way out of whack. Atlanta should be a mild favorite at home. We bet Miami.

9/5 Detroit Lions   @   5/11 New Orleans Saints

These teams are also very close. The Saints probably have a slight edge and are at home, but 5/11 is too strong of a favorite for us to bet them.

4/1 San Francisco 49ers   @   1/6 Washington Redskins  

No one knows the effect of Washington losing Josh Norman and their Defence may have already been playing over their heads. 1/6 is far too short a price.

2/9 New England Patriots   @   13/4 New York Jets

Todd Bowles is 1-1 vs Belichick in New York, and that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets are gaining confidence, McCown is a much better Quarterback than he gets credit for and the Jets Offence is developing an identity. The Patriot’s Defence is a shambles, their Offensive Line is leaky, Edelman is missing while Brady and Gronk will be playing hurt. New England misses Blount more than anyone realizes. You’d have to be crazy to take 2/9. We bet the Jets.

13/4 Cleveland Browns   @   2/9 Houston Texans  

Even though we are almost positive that Cleveland is trying to lose, nope.

12/5 Chicago Bears   @   5/14 Baltimore Ravens    

The Bears get Trevathan back and Kyle Long most probably. Chicago is not getting enough credit for hanging in with the Vikings while Baltimore is getting way too much credit for beating the Raiders. This is another game that could go either way, yet the odds differential is huge. We bet the Bears.

6/10 Green Bay Packers   @   7/5 Minnesota Vikings       

At least we understand the odds here. The Packers are getting too much credit for beating a bad Dallas squad while Bradford and Diggs are out for Minnesota. We thought that the performances of Stevan Ridley and Michael Floyd will determine the outcome, not Case Keenum. As long as Keenum continues to play within himself and doesn’t turn the ball over against yet another weak secondary. Minnesota’s Defensive Superiority should offset the drop off from Rodgers to Keenum. The game Shurmur calls needs to be run-heavy up the middle will the ball sprayed around to Treadwell, Floyd, and Thielen. Releasing Ridley because of one good game by McKinnon is just plain stupid, like most Vikings personnel decisions on Offence. We bet the Vikings.

23/20 Los Angeles Rams   @   20/27 Jacksonville Jaguars

The odds are right. Good Luck!!!

4/5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers   @   21/20 Arizona Cardinals

Tampa remains overrated. Maybe Adrian Peterson makes a huge difference in Arizona. Nothing to bet here.

7/4 Pittsburgh Steelers   @   10/21 Kansas City Chiefs    

We aren’t buying what the Chiefs are selling and believe they are the most overrated team in the AFC. We got 9/5 when betting the Steelers earlier this week.

33/20 Los Angeles Chargers   @   10/19 Oakland Raiders

We thought the Chargers were the better team going into the season and nothing has happened to change that evaluation. The Wild Fires are a Wild Card so we haven’t bet the Chargers yet.

4/1 New York Giants   @   1/6 Denver Broncos

We don’t bet big favorites but if we did we’d bet Denver.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

If Mariota plays and the Titans are favored, we will probably bet on the Colts

The NFL in the Moment – Thursday – 9pm EDT – Week Six 2017

Bye Week:  Bills, Bengals, Cowboys, Seahawks

This Cam Newton bullshit is getting out of hand. An extremely weak block-in-the-back penalty killed the Eagles second drive while a totally bogus Pass Interference penalty got Carolina in position to tie it up at 3-3. The Eagles are by far the better team, but we are not confident. Pretty soon you won’t be able to bet any games so no one will watch any games, and the NFL will fade away…

Time to look at the odds for Division Winners, Conference Winners, and Super Bowl Winner, updated to account for 2017 play and significant injuries. We are presenting the Division Winner suggestions in the order that we consider the best opportunity first, second best opportunity second etc.

AFC West Winner

4/6 Kansas City Chiefs    7/4 Denver Broncos

7/1 Oakland Raiders    33/1 Los Angeles Chargers

Now that most of that unjustified hype surrounding the Oakland Raiders has dissipated, we are left with an overachieving Chiefs team favored and a couple of interesting propositions in the Broncos and Chargers.  The next four [4] games will be critical for Kansas City. The way that the Chiefs are struggling on Defence, we expect them to lose at least twice, most probably three times and possibly all four. Our amended estimate of Kansas City’s ending record ranges from a best case 12-4 and a worst case 8-8 so we are splitting the difference at 10-6.

Denver has proven to be very tough to beat at home and very vulnerable on the road. Trevor Siemian showed in Buffalo that he still has a long way to go as an NFL Quarterback, and there is no guarantee he will get there. Having already had their Bye Week, the Broncos are going to have to make a decision as to whether Chad Kelly, whom we believe to be their best long-term option under center, starts practicing next week. He would be available to play starting Week Nine in Philadelphia at the earliest. In the interim, the Broncos have two [2] Division road games which, if they lose, could seriously affect their playoff chances. We have them finishing at 9-6 with the result against New England up in the air.

Given the situation, Kansas City is not very good value at 4/6 and your evaluation of Siemian’s ability to win on the road would determine if 7/4 on Denver is a good price. We took Denver at 9/4 before the season, but would not do so now. This is because the Chargers are 33/1 and the landscape could be very different in two weeks. Los Angeles could be 4-1 as easily as they are 1-4, losing two games because of missed Field Goals (they have since changed their Place Kicker) and losing another by two points. They should be 3-2. They absolutely need to beat Oakland and Denver. If they then lose in Foxborough as anticipated, they have to win out to go 11-5 to claim the division outright. We are not betting the Chargers but can see the attraction. The other three teams have serious flaws.

NFC North Winner

3/10 Green Bay Packers    5/1 Detroit Lions

5/1 Minnesota Vikings    250/1 Chicago Bears

As much as we like the Chicago Bears and love the odds of 250/1, because Philadelphia finished in last place in the NFC East last season left the Bears with the toughest schedule in a very good and fairly even division. The Packers are lucky to win games with Left Tackle David Bakhtiari and Right Tackle Bryan Bulaga hurting bad, when the Bears panicked and the luck of the schedule gave them Dallas when they needed an easy win, on the road to boot. The Vikings meanwhile continue to play Quarterback Roulette with Sam Bradford’s knee, and despite the teams wish to go with Keenum whom they believe they can rally around, we have the Christian Ponder situation all over again. Detroit continues to get screwed by the Officials who last week failed to reverse a Panther TD (there was an Ineligible Receiver Downfield call missed) and missed the same call on the play that set-up the Panther’s second TD.

All four teams will have completed their Bye Week going into Week Ten. Our estimate as to where the teams could stand at that point was, before Monday Night:

Minnesota Vikings 6-2

Green Bay Packers 5-3

Chicago Bears 3-5

Detroit Lions 3-5

We thought the Viking’s acquisition of Stevan Ridley was a great move. Since his ACL/MCL injury, he has only had 39 carries and is still only 28-years-old. Although he may have lost his burst to get around the edge, that is not what the Vikings need from him. The need him to blast it up the middle for four [4] yards-per-carry to ensure an eight-man box on first and second down. This will open up the play-action game for Diggs. If the Vikings stick with Keenum all the way up to the Green Bay game and design the proper game plan, they can win on Sunday. They get the Ravens at home before going to Cleveland, both of which they should have won, but of course, everything is now up-in-the-air with the Bradford situation, so who knows?

NFC South Winner

11/10 Atlanta Falcons    15/8 Carolina Panthers

6/1 New Orleans Saints    6/1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It looks like the Saints finally have the competitive team they need to return to dominance, but with the Officials awarding Carolina wins trying to make Cam Newton something he is not, and giving Atlanta more breaks than can be reasonably explained, it is hard to bet the Saints. They represent fantastic value at 6/1 in this group.

AFC South Winner

17/10 Houston Texans    2/1 Jacksonville Jaguars

 9/4 Tennessee Titans    14/1 Indianapolis Colts

The Injuries in Houston, the inconsistencies in Jacksonville, and the underwhelming performance of Tennessee make this the most competitive Division right now. Jacoby Brissett is as effective as any other Quarterback in the Division, and when Andrew Luck returns is a few weeks he will tower over the rest, so 14/1 on the Colts is looking attractive in the moment.

NFC East Winner

4/9 Philadelphia Eagles    7/2 Dallas Cowboys   

9/2 Washington Redskins    80/1 New York Giants

The loss of Josh Norman blows a pretty large hole in the Redskins attempt to overtake a very well-balanced Eagles squad that we envision winning the NFC. Their return head-to-head match Week Seven in Philadelphia without Norman could put the Division out of reach.

AFC North Winner

2/5 Pittsburgh Steelers    7/2 Baltimore Ravens

5/1 Cincinnati Bengals    500/1 Cleveland Browns

The reports of the Steelers demise will prove to be entirely premature. We expect them to knock off the Chiefs this weekend as part of their turnaround.

NFC West Winner

1/4 Seattle Seahawks    5/1 Los Angeles Rams

13/2 Arizona Cardinals    500/1 San Francisco 49ers

The Seahawks could have been had this year, but the Rams and 49’ers still are a year away, while Arizona is a couple of years past it. IF Adrian Peterson can turn it around for the Cardinals, it will be very surprising.

AFC East Winner

1/12 New England Patriots   7/1 Buffalo Bills

33/1 Miami Dolphins    33/1 New York Jets

The Patriots too could have been had this season, but no one was ready for it. Until they lose this Division, they own it.

AFC

13/8 New England Patriots    3/1 Kansas City Chiefs    6/1 Pittsburgh Steelers

9/1 Denver Broncos     20/1 Jacksonville Jaguars    20/1 Oakland Raiders

22/1 Houston Texans    22/1 Tennessee Titans    25/1 Baltimore Ravens

28/1 Buffalo Bills    33/1 Cincinnati Bengals    40/1 Miami Dolphins

66/1 Indianapolis Colts    66/1 Los Angeles Chargers    200/1 New York Jets

1000/1 Cleveland Browns

The Patriots are gunning for their seventh straight AFC Championship berth, which we will continue to grant them until they miss. We can’t see anyone seriously challenging them at this point.

NFC  

3/1 Green Bay Packers    9/2 Atlanta Falcons    5/1 Seattle Seahawks

13/2 Philadelphia Eagles    12/1 Carolina Panthers    12/1 Dallas Cowboys

16/1 Detroit Lions    18/1 Minnesota Vikings    20/1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

22/1 Washington Redskins    25/1 Los Angeles Rams    25/1 New Orleans Saints

50/1 Arizona Cardinals    150/1 New York Giants    200/1 Chicago Bears

500/1 San Francisco 49ers

The NFC is a completely different story. Mike McCarthy is a lousy coach who finds a way to miss the Super Bowl every year (except once). Atlanta is poorly coached and has a suspect Defence. Seattle’s Offensive Line will be their downfall. We like the Eagles at 13/2 as our main selection. Minnesota is their own worst enemy but would have a shot if they settled on a Quarterback and Running Back at 16/1, but history says that won’t happen. The Redskins could get hot as a Wild Card at 22/1 and if the Saints somehow get a fair shake and win the NFC South, 25/1 would be lovely.

Super Bowl

4/1 New England Patriots        6/1Green Bay Packers    7/1 Kansas City Chiefs

10/1 Atlanta Falcons    10/1 Seattle Seahawks   12/1 Philadelphia Eagles

12/1 Pittsburgh Steelers    20/1 Denver Broncos    22/1 Carolina Panthers

25/1 Dallas Cowboys    40/1 Detroit Lions    40/1 Jacksonville Jaguars

40/1 Minnesota Vikings   40/1 Oakland Raiders    50/1 Baltimore Ravens

50/1 Los Angeles Rams    50/1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers    50/1 Tennessee Titans

50/1 Washington Redskins    66/1 Buffalo Bills    66/1 Houston Texans

66/1 New Orleans Saints    80/1 Cincinnati Bengals    100/1 Los Angeles Chargers

150/1 Arizona Cardinals    150/1 Indianapolis Colts    150/1 Miami Dolphins

250/1 New York Giants    500/1 Chicago Bears    500/1 New York Jets

2500/1 Cleveland Browns    2500/1 San Francisco 49ers

Philadelphia at 12/1, Minnesota at 40/1 and Washington at 50/1 could be fun.

The NFL in the Moment – Wednesday – 2.30pm EDT – Week Six 2017

Bye Week:  Bills, Bengals, Cowboys, Seahawks

Hard to tell what is going on in the NFL in general and with New England specifically? The Officials essentially awarded the Panthers a win over the Patriots Week Four, and again over the Lions Week Five, so it is difficult to determine which games are to be decided by which teams plays better Week Six. Our theory is to only play a few games this week, at long odds, until we have better handle on what’s what in 2017.

5/2 Chicago Bears (+6.5)   @   1/3 Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

The Raiders are not a very good team so Baltimore’s victory over them does not mean much. EJ Manuel put up numbers consistent with those put up by Carr, so you cannot ascribe the Raven’s win to that. We have had the Raiders finishing at 5-11 from day one (March 1^st), and will not be surprised by a lower win total. What the Raider game may have done is mask the problem of Yanda’s absence from Baltimore’s Offensive Line. That, coupled with the under estimation of Chicago’s Defence because of the under estimation of Minnesota back-up Quarterback Case Keenum’s prowess, makes the Bears (+6.5) an attractive proposition. We see this as a low scoring game.

There are a few things to consider when deciding if you want to take the Bears to win outright. When Chicago’s Offensive Line is intact and somewhat healthy, it is one of the NFL’s finest, so the return of Hroniss Grasu and Kyle Long could re-ignite the Bears run game. Danny Trevathan’s return from suspension is certain to give Chicago’s Front Seven a lift. Bears rookie Quarterback Mitch Trubisky is the Wild Card in all this, but Joe Flacco is languishing at the bottom of all of the Quarterback metrics so the Ravens may not have a big edge there. Turnovers will very likely decide this game, and Baltimore turned the ball over nine [9] times in their first four games. Considering all this, this game is pretty even, so taking Chicago at 5/2 provides an excellent risk/reward ratio.

13/4 Cleveland Browns (+10)   @   2/9 Houston Texans (-10)

The Cleveland Browns appear to remain committed to securing the first overall pick in the 2018 draft, and as such are in no hurry to win a game soon. Looking at the schedules for the Giants, 49ers and Bears, it could be Week Eleven before every other team has at least two wins. This is the only thing to explain why Cody Kessler, the Quarterback who had the best metrics by a massive margin last season, remains affixed to the bench with superglue. Even so, 2/9 is too short of a price to take on Houston. Best to just pass.

10/17 Green Bay Packers (-3)   @   6/4 Minnesota Vikings (+3)

The Vikings continue to play games, at least with the public and the other NFL teams, with who will start at Quarterback. They were very lucky to escape a brutal first half by Bradford in Chicago with a 3-2 lead. Fortunately, for the Vikings, Keenum scored on three of his five second half possessions to eke out the win, which would have been much more difficult had Trevathan not been suspended. Chicago scored on two fluke plays in the second half, which could otherwise have cost the Vikings the game.

The only way the Vikings would be able to beat the Packers would be to install an Offence for Keenum to run, but they appear to be far more concerned about wasting a ton of time trying to get Bradford into the game than anything else. Despite the fact that he was 1-4 against the NFC North last season until a meaningless Week Seventeen win over David Fales (who?), it seems certain that Zimmer is going to continue to waste time on Bradford until, and it is inevitable, he (Bradford) is seriously injured and out for the season.

The Vikings already lost to a very beatable Steelers squad because of this nonsense, and without a leader under center for the players to form a team around, the Vikings are doomed to another lost season under GM Rick Spielman. We cannot advise you to take the Vikings until the situation is resolved, which will be unlikely this season.

The Packers meanwhile have their own problems. Both Offensive Tackles are hurting, whether or not they play, running back is a problem, Nose Tackle Mike Daniels is playing hurt and their Defensive Secondary is very weak. It was all Green Bay could do to beat a not-very-good Cowboys team. Their Bye Week cannot come soon enough for them (Week Eight), and they are vulnerable to the Vikings this week and they Saints next. The NFC North has quickly turned into a mess.

21/10 Detroit Lions (+5.5)   @   2/5 New Orleans Saints (-5.5)

Detroit represents the final NFC North member playing this weekend. Coming off a home loss during which two [2] of the oppositions (Carolina’s) three [3] Touchdown drives were abetted with Ineligible Receiver Downfield plays (one of which was a scoring play, which by rule is to be reviewed and therefore unchallengeable) that were not reversed. The team they are playing, New Orleans, is in the same division as the Panthers so if the league is giving Carolina preferential treatment, does this mean the Saints get the other end of the stick? It is a stinking, rotting mess that it is best to stay well away from, at least until we know which way the wind is blowing.

9/2 Miami Dolphins (+11.5)   @   2/13 Atlanta Falcons (-11.5)

Strangely enough, we quite like this game. The Dolphins are 2-2 and are facing a poorly coached, vastly overrated Falcons squad last seen losing to Buffalo. The Falcons should be 1-3 and could be 0-4. Jay Cutler is due to have a decent game. Take the Dolphins at 9/2.

2/9 New England Patriots (-9.5)   @   13/4 New York Jets (+9.5)        

The Jets almost always play the Patriots tough in New York. Over the past four seasons, two games went to overtime where the Jets won outright. The Patriots won the other two games, one by a single point and the other by five points. The Patriots have not covered the spread in New York since the game five years ago, a 49-19 drubbing 11/22/2012. With Brady hurting, the New England Defence in transition and the two teams tied in the standings, we have to go with the 13/4 Jets (+9.5), however improbable that may seem. If you have been backing the Jets the last two weeks as suggested, you are playing with house money.

15/4 San Francisco 49ers (+10)   @   2/11 Washington Redskins (-10)

The Redskin's Defence lost Josh Norman, one of the best players in the league, last game and it will affect their Defence. How much remains to be seen. San Francisco Head Coach Kyle Shanahan will know Kirk Cousins’s shortcomings well, and should have some ideas at least about how to defend against Kirk’s strengths. The 49ers have gone to overtime on the road two weeks in a row. We suggest taking San Francisco 49ers (+10), but to maybe stay away from taking them straight up. Still, at 15/4 you don’t have to bet much. Maybe the Shanahans get some revenge on Dan Snidely. This is certainly the year for it.

10/13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2)   @   11/10 Arizona Cardinals (+2)

Adrian Peterson makes his first start for the Cardinals, which makes this game watchable but not bettable.

5/4 Los Angeles Rams (+2.5)   @   20/29 Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)

We can see Blake Bortles crashing against the Rams Front Seven. We can picture Jared Goff beaten to a pulp by the Jaguar’s Defence. No feel for this game either way.

7/4 Pittsburgh Steelers (+4)   @   10/21 Kansas City Chiefs (-4)

By far our best bet of the week. The Steelers have problems, but the Chiefs are perhaps the most overrated team in the league. Bet Pittsburgh (+4) and at 7/4 early and often.

6/4 LA Chargers (+3)   @   10/17 Oakland Raiders (-3)

The Raiders remain the second-most overrated team in the league, but not for long! The Chargers lost both games to Oakland last season by three [3] points and we expect them to return the favor this year. Carr is supposed to be playing, which is unfortunate for the Raiders because there was a chance EJ Manuel would have improved significantly in his second start. Carr is likely rushing himself back because he knows how limited his abilities are and expects to get Wally Pipped at any moment. Take the Chargers (+3) and at 6/4 all week long.

4/1 New York Giants (+11.5)   @   1/6 Denver Broncos (-11.5)

We are very surprised to see such a generous price on Denver, so if you like to bet favorites you should jump on it fast. We expected this game to open at 1/10, but it opened at 1/6 and you can now get 10/53, which does make a difference when you bet big. I know that any team can win any game, but the Giants can’t run the ball against anyone whereas the Broncos have been able to stop everyone. The Giants can’t pass block at Left or Right Tackle, from where Von Miller and company will be rushing with regularity, and both of New York’s Wide Receivers broke bones in their legs last week. Talk about a perfect storm! We never bet massive favorites, but if we ever did, this would be the time.

N/L Indianapolis Colts ()   @   N/L Tennessee Titans ()

No line on this game yet, doubtless awaiting word on whether Mariota starts or not for the Titans. It would be interesting to see Brissett go against Cassel for a new twist on the former Tom Brady back-ups going head-to-head. Last Week, Brissett beat Hoyer in overtime while Cassel lost a squeaker in Miami because of fumbles, one by Murray and the other a strip sack that you could not really blame on Cassel. The Titans vaunted Offensive Line has to play better.

The situation here seems to be the same as the one in Minnesota, but it is not at all. Tennessee would never send Mariota out there in the condition Bradford was in on Monday night, and has already most probably decided who is starting. With the Browns next week and then their Bye Week, Tennessee will go with Cassel. If that is the case, the Colts would likely be favored and we would go with the Titans. If Mariota does start, the Titans would likely be favored, in which case we would pass.

The NFL in the Moment – Tuesday – 9pm EDT – Week Six 2017 II

31/20 Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5)   @   4/7 Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

This play set up Carolina’s second Touchdown. Once more, we have an ineligible receiver down the field. How can you justify betting against a team that does not have to follow the same rules that the other teams must follow?

The NFL in the Moment – Tuesday – 9pm EDT – Week Six 2017

31/20 Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5)   @   4/7 Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles are the most talented team in the NFC and they are playing the best football in the NFC. Cam Newman is a mediocre Quarterback with a career Passer Rating in the mid 80’s, but in 2015, the NFL somehow managed to use a soft Panther’s schedule to manufacture him into the League MVP. Who can say why?

Two weeks ago in Foxborough, the Patriots experienced unprecedented breakdowns in the Defensive Secondary, leaving Wide Receivers wide open and allowing Carolina to lead by 14 points in Q4. Tom Brady did what Tom Brady does and tied the game. The Patriots Defence had regrouped by this point and drove Newman backwards to 4^th and 18 with 2:23 remaining. Instead of getting the ball back, a late flag 40 yards away from the play was thrown on Stephon Gilmore by the Field Judge The FJ was too far away from the play and out of position to see if there was any accrual contact. He called the penalty because Funchess snapped his head back a little bit.

The last time the two teams had met, the opposite happened when Rob Gronkowski was held in the end zone while the ball was in the air. The flag thrown was picked up. Newman now is 2-0 against Brady, all of it orchestrated by the Officials. These things could be written off to human error, but what happened in Detroit this Sunday is what really scares us. On Carolina’s first touchdown, there was an ineligible receiver downfield. Here is the play:

You can see the line of scrimmage at the six and the Offensive Lineman indicated by the black arrow at the three

As this was a scoring play, the Lions were not able to challenge. The fact that it was reviewed and allowed to stand indicates that the NFL itself is not enforcing the rules against the Panthers. The 31/20 Eagles are absolutely the play here, but if the NFL has predetermined that the Panthers are winning, we cannot advise betting on Philadelphia.

The NFL in the Moment – Tuesday – 10.30am EDT – Week Six 2017

4/6 Minnesota Vikings (-3)   @   13/10 Chicago Bears (+3)

Well, the Vikings did start Bradford but pulled him near the end of Q2 when Keenum came in with the score 3-2. Keenum seemed to have command of the game the entire second half. The Bears managed to stay within one point after Keenum’s first Touchdown drive with a Touchdown of their own on a fake punt. After Keenum’s next drive, also a Touchdown, Trubisky threw a bad pass that Minnesota’s Sendejo should have intercepted. Instead of intercepting or knocking the pass down, Sendejo tipped the ball right to the intended receiver, Zach Miller and a nifty two-point play tied it up at 17.

A penalty killed Keenum’s third drive while a rare drop by Kyle Rudolph stalled the Vikings out at the Chicago 44 with 2:44 to go. Fortunately, for the Vikings, Harrison Smith did intercept Trubisky's next errant pass to Miller, and Keenum was able to drain the clock while driving for the game-winning Field Goal. Keenum ended up completing over 80% of his passes (17/21) and scored points on three of his five drives. Keenum did not turn the ball over for his fourth straight game.

Week Six Epilogue

While our straight-up winners were limited we did quite well against the spread this weekend. We pressed Carolina against the spread and while we would have won that bet without Greg Olson’s TD it was much sweeter to add the straight-up money @ 13/5. It would have been nice if Rivers had completed a longshot double however he spotted (and threw the ball to) Danny Woodhead a second too late in the end zone on fourth down as the clock wound down although San Diego covered for us. As Sunday’s kick-offs approached we gathered our wits and went all-in on Miami to beat a woeful Tennessee squad with an equally poor coach. We found 3.5 points on Chicago and won, Cleveland covered, and Cincinnati and Pittsburgh provided handsome winnings.

In the loss column, New England won easily however, for whatever reason, Belichick took his foot off the gas in the fourth quarter allowing a garbage time TD to miss covering by 2 points. We also missed on the Redskins/Jets game but hey, you can’t win every bet when you are playing teams at better than 1/2.

1/2 Denver Broncos -4.0   @   17/10 Cleveland Browns +4.0   O/U    42

The Broncos won in overtime after Josh McCown went three and out on the Browns only possession. Denver could be the worst team to go 5-0 out of the gate since Kansas City a couple of years ago. The soft schedule ends after their upcoming Bye Week when we will see what is what when they host the Packers.

Selection: Cleveland Browns @ 17/10 for 3 Units /Cleveland Browns +4 for 3 Units

33/20 Kansas City Chiefs +3.5   @   10/19 Minnesota Vikings -3.5   O/U    43.0

Teddy Wobblyballs outdueled Alex Smith in a game we had no interest in whatsoever.

Selection: None

6/4 Chicago Bears +3.0   @   10/17 Detroit Lions -3.0   O/U    43

The Bears sent the game into overtime but fell short by a FG. We were able to get 4.5 points near game time and took them. Chicago goes into their Bye Week before hosting the Vikings where they could be a good bet.

Selection: Chicago Bears @ 6/4 for 3 Units/Chicago Bears +3.0 for 3 Units

5/8 Cincinnati Bengals -3.5   @   7/5 Buffalo Bills +3.5   O/U    42.5

The Bills continue to get over bet. The Bengals beat the Bills very easily illustrating the gap between Buffalo and true contenders which is exacerbated by poor coaching. The Bills are again favored (in London) this week over a Jacksonville team that is getting better.

Selection: Cincinnati Bengals @ 5/8 for 8 Units

20/21 Miami Dolphins +1.0   @   20/23 Tennessee Titans -1.0   O/U    43.5

The fish squished the Titans, a forgone conclusion we came to about an hour before kick-off. Miami is going to win their eight (8) games it would seem but when remains a question.

Selection: None

5/2 Washington Redskins +6.0   @   1/3 New York Jets- 6.0   O/U    40.5

“If Kirk Cousins doesn’t throw any interceptions Washington can win”. He threw two (2) and they didn’t. For those who think the Jets are for real, they opened at 9/2 against the Patriots. Knock yourselves out!

Selection: Washington Redskins @ 5/2 for 3 Units/Washington Redskins +6.0 for 3 Units

10/19 Arizona Cardinals -3.0   @   33/20 Pittsburgh Steelers +3.0   O/U    44.5

“Bet Pittsburgh with both hands” they said. Good thing for us Landry Jones came in and won the game for Pittsburgh. Roethliberger says he will be back this week and we wonder if that is because he is afraid the kid will take his job.

Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers @ 33/20 for 8 Units/Pittsburgh Steelers +3.0 for 8 Units

21/20 Houston Texans +1.5   @   4/5 Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5   O/U    43.0

Hoyer is not turning the ball over (1 Int in the last 3 games with a passer rating approaching 120) and Houston is now only a game behind Indy in the AFC South where 9-7 might take the division and the Texans can make up the game by winning in Indy later on. First they need to win in Miami where they are 2/1 in early betting.

Selection: None

13/5 Carolina Panthers +7.0   @   5/16 Seattle Seahawks -7.0   O/U    40.5

“Here’s one that makes no sense at all. The Panthers may not have beaten much so far this year on the way to 4-0 but Seattle would be 1-4 if the officials had not given them the Detroit game” they said (us) and we were correct sir. If only there were more of this type of game, we could retire as millionaires and let someone else do all the work. The Seahawks would be 1-5…and yet, amazingly, they are again heavy favorites on the road this week when they visit a suddenly hot Kaepernick and the 49ers. San Fran is 21/10 in the early betting.

Selection: Carolina Panthers @ 13/5 for 8 Units/Carolina Panthers +7.0 for 8 Units

15/4 San Diego Chargers +10.5   @   2/11 Green Bay Packers -10.5   O/U    50.5

The Chargers did not disappoint, covering easily as Phillip Rivers came up a few yards short despite throwing for over 500 of them. Aaron Rodgers looked incredibly average and had the officials called Clay Matthews for jumping offside and forcing Rivers into the hands of Datone Jones and the Chargers to punt on their second-to-last possession the outcome may have been very different (Good luck trying to find the play on the internet – The television replay curiously did not show that part of the play).

Selection: San Diego Chargers +10.5 for 4 Units

10/13 Baltimore Ravens -2.0   @   11/10 San Francisco 49ers +2.0   O/U    43.5

Turns out we were 100% correct in stating that the Ravens had no business being favored here as the 49ers led from the start and were never seriously challenged despite Kaepernick’s being seriously challenged.

Selection: None

5/19 New England Patriots -9.0   @   29/10 Indianapolis Colts +9.0   O/U    54.5

The New England Patriots beat the Indianapolis Colts Sunday night without really breaking a sweat. Julian Edleman’s juggling cost Tom Brady his first interception of the season reminding us to get back on the bandwagon for a brand new statistic: The Bumble. A Bumble happens when a QB throws a pass to an open receiver and that receiver’s actions cause the ball to end up in an opponent’s hands. Much like the Error in baseball where the Pitcher is not penalized statistically by a fielder’s bumbling.

Selection: New England Patriots -9.0 for 8 Units

Monday Night Football

21/10 New York Giants +5.0   @   2/5 Philadelphia Eagles -5.0   O/U    50.0

In early action the Giants led 7-0 and Bradford was off (again). A nice Philly drive and a pick six have the Eagles up 14-7.

Selection: New York Giants @ 21/10 for 3 Units/ New York Giants +5.0 for 3 Units

The NFL in the Moment - Week 6 2015

Hard to believe the season is almost 1/3rd over however players and coaches certainly know it. Despite losing Nate Solder and Brown for the season, the Patriots are going to destroy the Colts. This week started off with a Home Underdog winning outright with the Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers and Indianapolis Colts all Home Dogs this weekend. We get why people might like the (unbeaten) Broncos over the Browns however Josh McCown has thrown for over 300 yards the last two weeks which saw Cleveland win in overtime last week against the Ravens and missed going to OT two weeks ago when Tramon Williams jumped offside on a field goal miss with no time left on the clock allowing the Chargers to re-kick from five yards closer and win.

The very same 1-4 Ravens that Cleveland beat last week are favored this week in San Francisco despite their record and the fact that San Fran has had a brutal schedule where the only team to beat them that is not in first place in their division was the Big Ben version of the Steelers. At the Ralph in Orchard Park the unbeaten Cincinnati Bengals are favored over the home-town Bills due in part to their come from behind overtime win over a very overrated Seahawks team. The Steelers are underdogs at home to the Arizona Cardinals, another vastly overrated squad.

Finally, the Indianapolis Colts are underdogs at home to the New England Patriots in the place that the whole deflated footballs issue got started. It is interesting to note that after putting up 28 unanswered points in the second half (after the officials had re-inflated the balls) to complete a 45-7 massacre of the Colts the Patriots have not lost a game since, including a victory in the Super Bowl.

1/2 Denver Broncos -4.0   @   17/10 Cleveland Browns +4.0   O/U    42

The Broncos have won all of their games so far by playing stifling defence however the teams that they have beaten are the ones with the worst records in the league. Cleveland has been gelling as a team and is a costly offside penalty away from a winning record and a slice of the lead in the contentious AFC North. Denver has lost Demarcus Ware already and Talib is hurting while Josh McCown has been tearing it up with a passer rating over 100 this season while Manning languishes in the 70’s.

Selection: Cleveland Browns @ 17/10 for 3 Units /Cleveland Browns +4 for 3 Units

33/20 Kansas City Chiefs +3.5   @   10/19 Minnesota Vikings -3.5   O/U    43.0

Teams have twigged to Alex Smith’s shortcomings and he has just lost his outstanding running back, Jamaal Charles, for the season. The Vikings are 2-2 with Adrian Peterson back and could win at that price we will pass.

Selection: None

6/4 Chicago Bears +3.0   @   10/17 Detroit Lions -3.0   O/U    43

John Fox has the Bears playing decent football and a win here would pull them up to 0.500 while the Lions sit 0-5 and last overall in the league. Have to go with the Bears at these odds.

Selection: Chicago Bears @ 6/4 for 3 Units/Chicago Bears +3.0 for 3 Units

5/8 Cincinnati Bengals -3.5   @   7/5 Buffalo Bills +3.5   O/U    42.5

The Bills continue to get over bet. They just barely scraped by one of the worst teams in the league (Tennessee) and have EJ Manuel back under center. Cincinnati meanwhile has been playing like a top Playoff seed, especially the way they hung tough last Sunday and put away the Seahawks. Although Andy Dalton may not be an elite Quarterback his Passer Rating is off the chart and wily old Marvin Lewis has no doubt taken note of how to negate the Bills pass rush. The spread is high for a road win.

Selection: Cincinnati Bengals @ 5/8 for 8 Units

20/21 Miami Dolphins +1.0   @   20/23 Tennessee Titans -1.0   O/U    43.5

The Dolphins are a better team than their 1-3 record might indicate and are coming off their Bye Week with a shiny new Head Coach in Dan Campbell. We are not fans of the Titans under Ken Wisenhunt. A good game to pass on.

Selection: None

5/2 Washington Redskins +6.0   @   1/3 New York Jets- 6.0   O/U    40.5

The Redskins come off of a hard road loss in Georgia last week only to visit New Jersey this week where Ryan Fitzpatrick has the Jets at 3-1, which is where he had the Texans at last year before dropping three (3) straight games. The Jets are pretty banged up for a team coming off of an early Bye Week. This game will likely come down to execution and if Kirk Cousins doesn’t throw any interceptions Washington can win.

Selection: Washington Redskins @ 5/2 for 3 Units/Washington Redskins +6.0 for 3 Units

10/19 Arizona Cardinals -3.0   @   33/20 Pittsburgh Steelers +3.0   O/U    44.5

It is unusual to see a Playoff team as a home underdog and yet that is the exact situation here. The Steelers got it done in San Diego with Mike Vick and they can win at home with him. Arizona has been running the score up on some pretty bad teams whereas Pittsburgh is a missed Field Goal away from being 4-0 since losing to the Patriots in the season opener. Bet Pittsburgh with both hands.

Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers @ 33/20 for 8 Units/Pittsburgh Steelers +3.0 for 8 Units

21/20 Houston Texans +1.5   @   4/5 Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5   O/U    43.0

The Jaguars need to settle down, play good defence and wait for the breaks to come. And they will come in this game as both Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett have a penchant for turning the ball over. While we have gone back to ground with regards to Jacksonville, Houston has shown us no reason why they should be bet. The Texans opened as 1.5 point favorites so the spread has shifted a full Field Goal.

Selection: None

13/5 Carolina Panthers +7.0   @   5/16 Seattle Seahawks -7.0   O/U    40.5

Here’s one that makes no sense at all. The Panthers may not have beaten much so far this year on the way to 4-0 but Seattle would be 1-4 if the officials had not given them the Detroit game and therein lay the rub: If Seattle was life-and-death with winless Detroit, how can you justify them being 5/16 against a Playoff team? The Seahawks are not going to the Playoffs this season whether they win this one or not.

Selection: Carolina Panthers @ 13/5 for 8 Units/Carolina Panthers +7.0 for 8 Units

15/4 San Diego Chargers +10.5   @   2/11 Green Bay Packers -10.5   O/U    50.5

Everyone seems to want to make the Packers the favorite to win at least the NFC if not the Super Bowl however Green Bay is coming off a game where Gurley rushed for 150 yards and might have had a much different outcome if Nick Foles had not thrown four (4) Interceptions. Rivers always seems to lose to Rodgers by a TD so a 10.5 point spread has got to look good. Plus the Packers need to be taken down a peg. Take the points and, if you are brave, take the Chargers to win.

Selection: San Diego Chargers +10.5 for 4 Units

10/13 Baltimore Ravens -2.0   @   11/10 San Francisco 49ers +2.0   O/U    43.5

The 1-4 Baltimore Ravens are favored on the over the 1-4 San Francisco 49ers because…..well because nothing. The Ravens just got whupped by Cleveland…Cleveland! Fifty year old Josh McCown (actually he is only 36) put up huge numbers against the Ravens not so great defence. The 49ers are at home haven’t played any worse than the Ravens. At only slightly better than evens though it is most probably better to pass on this game.

Selection: None

5/19 New England Patriots -9.0   @   29/10 Indianapolis Colts +9.0   O/U    54.5

The New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts Sunday night, prime time, nowhere to hide. If Chuck Pagano were smart he would let Andrew Luck rest his separated shoulder, especially given Luck’s past performances against New England, but he isn’t, he won’t and Luck will play. And get sacked. A lot. I am pretty sure Belichick, McDaniels and Brady will have cooked up a way to really run up the score here. Bet as much as you want to on the Patriots to cover.

Selection: New England Patriots -9.0 for 8 Units

Monday Night Football

21/10 New York Giants +5.0   @   2/5 Philadelphia Eagles -5.0   O/U    50.0

The Philadelphia Eagles are 2-3 however their win over the Jets doesn’t count for much as Ryan Fitzpatrick and his three (3) Interceptions was more of a gift than anything else. The Eagles other win was over New Orleans, the team with perhaps the worst defence in the league. The Giants could easily be 5-0 but forgetting all that, the Eagles haven’t done anything to justify these odds.

Selection: New York Giants @ 21/10 for 3 Units/ New York Giants +5.0 for 3 Units