NFL WEEK 12
Week 10 may not have been very kind to us but Week 11 more than made up for that. We did indeed bet New England with both hands and were handsomely rewarded. And my, how fickle the everyday NFL bettor is - We got 11/4 on Cincinnati, not that long ago (Week 5) favored to beat the Patriots in Foxborough, who out-played the Saints in all three phases of the game AND we got 11/4 on Tampa Bay to beat the Booby Griffin the tird version of the Redskins easily. We disagreed with Jeff Fisher going back to Shaun Hill only to miss the Rams (whom we did select to beat the Seahawks and 49ers) at a plump 7/2, burned a lot of Parlays when the Seahawks lost, should have known better than to trust Sanchez and missed Ryan Mallett’s coming out party but bet way more than we should have on the Patriots to more than make up the difference in what was certain to be the last time we see New England at odds (they will be odds on, at least until they lose) before February in Arizona, speaking of which we did have the Cardinals on a nice little parlay (with the Patriots and Bengals of course).
Every year, Week 11 through Week 15 shows the mettle of the men who play the game. Rodgers was laughing it up while he was beating down the Eagles, Gronk was tackling his would be tacklers on the road and driving the ball down the field and Matt Bryant was booting the Panthers into submission and the Falcons into first place whereas on the "B" Side the Manning Brothers combined for seven (7) interceptions and (0) zero wins, the Colts' (in)effective first round pick Trent Richardson had seven (7) carries for zero (0) yards and both the Seahawks and the Broncos came up with zero (0) points in the fourth quarter to ignobly go down to defeat. While there are exceptions to every rule, most of the teams who make the playoffs win at least three (3) of these four (4) games.
Week 12 provides a whole new slate of games to try our hand at however it appears that the odds-makers have sobered up making our task all that more challenging.....
AFC East
Week 12 has the 19/10 New York Jets travelling upstate to play little sister, 1/2 Buffalo, in a game of no consequence. Kyle Orton had an utterly forgettable game against Miami last week, showing why he was available in the first place, and we are betting on him having another as Mike Vick continues his improbable quest to win-out and lead the Jets to another 8-8 finish thereby saving Rex Ryan's job and earning himself a big-bucks multi-year deal as a starter for some team at 35 years old. As each chapter grows, who knows? The 31/10 Dolphins visit Mile High to meet a 2/7 Bronco team that left on a three game road trip as the AFC’s number one seed with a (2) two game divisional lead and returned home (figuratively) 7-3 (their lone win was over the winless Raiders) in a tie for first place with Kansas City. As tempting as it is to go with the Fish at over 3-1, we refuse to take the bait.
The Patriots return to Foxborough as the current Kings-of-the Castle at 8-2 after thoroughly dominating the Perennial Pretender Indianapolis Colts in what was pretty much a repeat of the last time they met (sub Jonas Gray for Legarret Blount). Brady was not sharp coming off the bye (is he ever?) but he did not need to be. In this week are the Detroit Lions, coming off a two (2) field goal performance (in spite of having a healthy Calvin Johnson back) in a loss to an Arizona squad minus their starting QB and with Larry Fitzgerald far from 100 percent. It looks very much like the 13/5 (down from an absurd 3/1) Lions have yet again begun their annual free-fall back into mediocrity with the 5/16 Patriots pouring gasoline on that fire in a game where the most interesting thing may turn out to be whether Revis, Browner or both cover Calvin Johnson. On a more serious note, the Lions look like extremely good value at this price however they did lose 6 of their last 7 games last year and all 7 of their final 7 the year before after good starts so we can’t go there.
Bet the Jets @19/10
AFC North
The Steelers enjoy their bye week a mere 14/1000ths behind the first place 21/20 Cincinnati Bengals who visit the 4/5 Houston Texans sporting an undefeated Ryan Mallett (1-0) under centre. Mallett got that way as the Texan’s “D” was able to stymie Cleveland’s usually pretty good running game. They will have to do the same to rookie Jeremy Hill, who has rushed for over a buck fifty two (2) of the past (3) weeks in Gio Bernard’s absence. Of course it is entirely possible that the Texan’s own premiere rookie Jadeveon Clowney, will knock Dalton from here into next week.
In a far more intriguing match-up, the 4/7 Atlanta Falcons, winners of two (2) straight over Carolina and Tampa Bay (collectively 5-15-1) host the 31/20 Cleveland Browns featuring the return of Josh Gordon. While Hoyer and Gordon may need to still work on their timing a bit the mere presence of such a talented deep threat should prove too much for the Falcon’s dead-last pass defence while releasing Ben Tate would indicate the Cleveland is also happy with the state of their running game. The final game in what may be the strongest division in the NFL has the 31/20 Baltimore Ravens visiting the 4/7 New Orleans Saints. It is doubtful that the Saints found a defence this past week whereas the Raven “D” has been very solid all year with the exception of that outlier loss to Pittsburgh.
Bet the Baltimore Ravens @ 31/20
Bet the Cleveland Browns @ 31/20
And, if you dare,
Bet the Cincinnati Bengals @ 21/20
AFC South
The 1/12 Indianapolis Colts, fresh off getting demo’d by the Patriots, are licking their wounds at home preparing for the 15/2 Jaguars. Indy seldom misses a chance to pad their record and although the Jaguars have made some overall improvement and Bortles is bound to be improving it is hard to see the Jags here. 4/5 Houston hosts 21/20 Cincinnati as above however 26/5 Tennessee visits 2/15 Philadelphia in a very interesting match-up. The Philadelphia defence is suspect (24th to the Titan’s 20th), Zach Mettenberger was a pick-6 away from beating the Steelers last time out and then we must incorporate the Sanchez factor. Chip Kelly may indeed have devised a quarterback proof offence however can he, or anyone else for that matter, devise a Sanchez-proof offence? We think not.
Bet the Tennessee Titans @ 26/5
AFC West
It took a week for the Patriot shellacking to sink in and when it did the Broncos fell to the same fate as the 49ers and the Seahawks before them – Losing to the improbable St. Louis Rams. Last week we questioned Fisher’s decision to go back to Shaun Hill and missed a mighty nice price as the Rams continued to win alternative weeks. This week the 5/11 San Diego Chargers get to host the 9/5 Rams where we anticipated the cycle will continue and the Chargers will take the win but we are not betting on it at 5/11. The vaunted 2/7 Broncos are at home to the 11/4 Miami Dolphins as above and while we expect Denver to win, we aren’t betting in that either. The 11/4 Oakland Raiders, a team we still expect to win at some point and narrow losers to San Diego last Sunday, host the 2/7 Kansas City Chiefs who have won five (5) straight, are tied with Denver for first place and are one game back of the Patriots for the best record in the AFC – In other words, are a team ripe for the picking!
Take (another) flyer on the Raiders @ 11/4
*** Update - It may not have been pretty but the Raiders broke their losing streak Thursday night in a quagmire at the Coliseum 24 to 20 over Kansas City ***
*** Update - It may not have been pretty but the Raiders broke their losing streak Thursday night in a quagmire at the Coliseum 24 to 20 over Kansas City ***
NFC East
With Tony Romo’s back woes, Nick Foles’ broken wing, Booby Griffin the Tird’s utter ineptitude and Eli Manning’s interception percentage things are finally back to normal in the NFC East. The 10/17 Dallas Cowboy juggernaut rolls into New Jersey to take on the 6/4 Giants where a New York loss would all but eliminate the Giants from any post season talk (not that there is that much of it anyway). Last week Eli’s fifth pick of the game from the 49ers four (4) yard line with under five (5) minutes to go in the game sealed this one to extend the current Giant losing skid to five (5) straight but the fact that New York was in it with a chance to win so late speaks more to San Francisco’s inability to close out a game than to any of the Giant’s strengths.
There is no chance whatsoever that we would ever be able to bet on a team where the possibility of a game’s outcome could end up in the hands of Brandon Weeden so the Cowboys are out as well. The same could be said for 13/4 Washington, visiting 2/9 San Francisco, that is until Griffin is officially out for the year we can neither back the Redskins nor (in good conscience) suggest that anyone else back them. We already took 6/1 Tennessee over 3/19 Philadelphia as above.
Take a pass on the NFC East
NFC North
The 1/5 Green Bay Packers visit the 7/2 Minnesota Vikings in a game that at first glance seems pretty one-sided in favour of the cheese heads however with the Vikings signing Ben Tate and effectively turning their back on Adrian Peterson the game takes on somewhat of a statement quality. And the statement is this: Teddy Bridgewater is no NFL starting QB and this Viking team is starting from scratch. If you are a chalk bettor, be our guest. The 13/5 Lions visit 5/16 New England as above and if you are a Lions supporter those odds are more than fair. Finally, the 5/12 Chicago Bears host Lovie Smith’s home-coming party as he brings his 2/1 Tampa Bay Bucs north to capture his second straight victory with Bears alum Josh McCown under center. We do not like the Bears here but….
Take a pass on the NFC North
NFC South
We very much like the 2/1 Tampa Bay Bucs going up north to take on Lovie Smith’s former team, the 5/12 Chicago Bears in a game expected to be contested on a very cold and wet Sunday. Bucs QB Josh McCown knows the Bears offence better than Jay Cutler and Coach Smith knows the weaknesses of the many Bear holdovers from when he coached there well enough to effectively game plan for them. The 4/7 Falcons host the 31/20 Browns as above and we like the Browns very much. The 4/7 Saints host another team we like very much, the 31/20 Ravens and the Panthers are enjoying their bye week.
Bet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 2/1
The NFC West
Our 9/5 St. Louis Rams are visiting the 5/11 San Diego Chargers in a game we anticipate San Diego will win but are not betting on. The 2/9 San Francisco 49ers host the (hapless) 13/4 Washington Redskins in another game we do not like and cannot see betting either team. Not so with the last, but not least, game of the week. We had a good week last week, a very good week, but we would have had a great week, perhaps our best ever regular season week, had Russell Wilson been able to convert. With seven (7) minutes left and the ball inside the KC 10 yard line, Wilson had five (5) chances to complete a pass but could not complete a single one. Getting the ball back with just under 5 minutes left at the KC 45, Wilson could not gain a first down. This is NOT the same Seattle squad that we all saw win the Super Bowl last year. The week the team with the best record in the NFC, the 12/5 Arizona Cardinals, visit the 5/14 Seahawks in Seattle where Arizona won last year.
Bet the Arizona Cardinals (dare we say with both hands) @ 12/5
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