The Super Bowl as it Truly is

Super Bowl XLIX

We have been very quiet over the post season as we have had very little to say. The favorite has dominated, winning every game except the Ravens/Steelers tilt, so there just have not been any opportunities to apply our strategy to. We expected the Seahawks to be a lot more heavily favored than they are presently however the betting public is not as easily fooled as the general public is. We do expect the Patriots to drift up at least to evens so if anyone wants to bet Seattle they should do it sooner rather than later whereas those inclined to back the Patriots had best wait a while unless they have a best odds guaranteed relationship with their bookmaker.

In the Red Corner, the New England Patriots. In the Blue Corner, the Seattle Seahawks. Let us first examine and compare the position groupings:

Quarterback – Tom Brady holds most of the quarterback post season records including most games, wins and touchdown passes and this season marks his 12^th foray into the play-offs and 6^th trip[ to the Super Bowl. Over all that time (28 games) his lowest Passer Rating was 49.9 the year he was coming back from ACL surgery and got ambushed by the Ravens. This season, Brady has been right at 100 give or take for both contests which is pretty good considering the competition. Russell Wilson has played in exactly ¼ as many games as Brady (7) but has only completed 17% as many passes for 22% as many yards with 20% as many touchdowns. Wilson just compiled his worst passer rating in the post season of 44 to go with the 149.2 he put up against 7-8-1 Carolina based on 15 completions while also rushing for 47 yards on 14 carries total. So Brady is playing better right now, has better stats and 400% more experience. An obvious advantage to Brady.

Running Back - Before declaring Marshawn Lynch as the winner here, remember that he did get run out of Buffalo. Lynch tied with Blount with an average of 4.7 YPC and Blount has the better post season numbers. Blount is younger and smarter than Lynch and is also the fresher of the two. Call is a wash.

Tight End - Seriously? Gronkowski.

Wide Receiver – For whatever reason, Patriot receivers never get much love. We imagine that this is because they seldom throw the deep ball but really have no idea why. Seattle meanwhile averages only about 200 yards per game through the air. Brandon LaFell had almost 1,000 yards this season as New England’s main deep threat while Edleman was effective out the slot and then Gronk, as above, was Gronk. Seattle may have some tricks up their sleeve however we expect Kearse and Baldwin to get the most passes thrown their way along with tight end Luke Wilson.

We would give the Patriots the edge based just on this but we keep going back Brian Tyms, Jimmy Garoppolo’s favorite target in Pre-Season. We simply cannot believe that Belichick has kept him on the roster all season just to play on Special Teams. They threw him one deep ball touchdown in week 6, almost as if to see if what happened in practice & Pre-Season would translate to the regular season, and then nothing (except some passes from, you guessed it, Garoppolo). During the play-offs Tyms has been running up and down the sideline with nary a throw his way – yet. It is our guess that Belichick is saving the best for last and after running Sherman ragged all day up and down the sideline they will go to Tyms a few times for what they hope will be 2 or 3 touchdowns. Or not. Still, the Patriots have the edge here.

Offensive Line – This one will be a lot easier after the game, that’s for sure. Seattle’s line is banged up with a rookie at right tackle (out of necessity, not by choice) and the Packer defence made the most of it until the meltdown. The Patriot offensive line cost them games this season but did a pretty good job last week, albeit against the Colts, without C Brian Stork. Stork will start in the Super Bowl but whether his wonky knee allows him to finish is another story entirely. The Patriot offensive line can dominate lesser defences but will get all it can handle, if it indeed does handle it, from Seattle. Slight edge to the Patriots.

The Patriots, the highest scoring team in the league until they rested their starters in week 17, come out on top doubtless to the surprise of no one. On the other side of the ball however……

Defensive Line – For some reason, the Seahawk defensive line doesn’t get any more love than the Patriot’s receivers do. Why that is, we again have no idea. It could be the low number of sacks however given that Seattle had the lowest number of passes in the league to defend it is not so surprising. Add in a league second place proficiency against the run and you get is a very nice defensive line.

For the Patriots, defensive line is probably the weakest position group. Rob Ninkovich is a tremendous football player but plays defensive end out of necessity.  If the Patriots had the pieces so that Ninkovich could play his natural position at linebacker the Patriots would be set. But they don’t. Chandler Jones missed a bunch of games with a hip and it is unlikely that it has healed completely so he is not at top capacity. Vince Wilfork is still a very good tackle but no longer has the best in the league and the other tackle spot been filled with a rotation of guys. With the Super Bowl being only their third game in five weeks, six if you count the Bills game, guys like Wilfork and Jones will have had maximum rest but the advantage still goes to Seattle.

Linebacker – If Jerod Mayo was healthy there would be no contest here. But he is out for the year. Donta Hightower has come on like gangbusters in his absence and Jamie Collins may ultimately prove the best of the group meanwhile in-season acquisitions Casillas and Ayers have been remarkably effective. Seattle on the other hand has a star in Bob Wagner at MLB. This is a tough one so we will call it a draw.

Secondary – The best secondary in the AFC meets the NFC’s best secondary. Seattle is claiming business as usual however with Earl Thomas separating his shoulder. The dynamic shifts. Richard Sherman may too be hurt however of the injuries sustained in the Packer game Thomas’s seemed the worst. Brandon Browner is also dinged up however the CB spurned by the Seahawks would like nothing better than to come back and burn them. With Revis, Browner and a surprisingly effective Kyle Arrington coupled with McCourty and a new and very much improved Patrick Chung New England’s new 4-2-5 defence could very well be the difference in this game, especially if Thomas and Sherman are really injured. Have to say advantage Patriots

Special Teams – Gotskowski is as good as it gets when it comes to kicking and is the difference maker here with both units full of very good players and excellently coached. Advantage Patriots.

Coaching – The Patriots fired Pete Carrol to hire Bill Belichick Both teams are very well coached but we have to go with the more seasoned Belichick whop really is a cut above the rest.

Overall – If you were counting we had the Patriots ahead in more groups than the Seahawks but football is a team sport and how it all comes together is the key factor. If the Seahawks can control the ball and clock with the running of Lynch and Wilson they will win the game however the Patriots have a better overall defence than the Packers and based on what we saw in the Championship round the Packers had them stopped cold before throwing the game away. If the Patriots can use the pass to set up the run and get the ball a number of times New England will win however stopping the short passing game is what Seattle does best (and the deep passing game as well. There is a reason the spread on this game is only one point but based on the facts that we are all aware of this game is going to come down to who has the best game plan and who executes the best. It isn’t time yet for the new guard to take over so we expect the game to be very close until the Patriots blow it wide open in the third quarter and their secondary is the key to holding on for the victory. New England 41 and Seattle 24.