NFL 2015 Week Two
Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football
6/4 Denver Broncos +3 vs 10/17 Kansas City Chiefs -3 O/U 42.5
Is it not a bit early to be writing off the 6/4 Denver Broncos? They did win last week after all and their pass rush certainly looked ferocious in beating down the Ravens, a team likely a cut above the Texans squad that KC beat. It is hard to imagine Alex Smith faring much better this week than Flacco did last week whereas Peyton Manning is lifetime 13-1 against the Chiefs
Selection: Denver Broncos @ 6/4 for 3 units/Denver Broncos +3 @ 10/11 for 3 units - 6
Sunday’s Games
1/1 New England Patriots +1.5 vs 5/6 Buffalo Bills -1. O/U 45
The Patriots opened as 5/6 favorites (-1 ) however consistent pressure out of Western New York has pushed the spread almost a full field goal (2.5) the other way. Tom Brady has been involved in 26 games against Buffalo with New England winning 23 and losing 3: Week 17 last season (while the Patriots rested their starters for their 2014 Super Bowl Run), a 31-0 aberration opening day (Week One) 2003 (where Brady threw 4 Picks and no TD's which spurred the Patriots on to a 17-1 record the rest of the season culminating in the 2003 Super Bowl) and without much attached drama on another 4 Interception day from Brady Week Three 2011. Any team can win any game on any given day and if Brady throws 4 interceptions today the Patriots will likely lose as Brady has lost all 6 (of 210) of his regular season 4 interception games. A shift of 2 1/2 points in a game expected to be as close as this one is massive. Mobile quarterbacks, going back to Miami unleashing the Wildcat of the modern day NFL against New England in 2008, have given the Patriots trouble in the past however Belichick has adjusted to them pretty well over the years. New England does tend to lose more in September than in the later months but all of these things are looking for the exception. With the points, the Patriots make more sense than ever
Selection: New England Patriots @ 1/1 for 5 units/New England Patriots +1.5 for 5 units – 10 (16)
The Patriots opened as 5/6 favorites (-1 ) however consistent pressure out of Western New York has pushed the spread almost a full field goal (2.5) the other way. Tom Brady has been involved in 26 games against Buffalo with New England winning 23 and losing 3: Week 17 last season (while the Patriots rested their starters for their 2014 Super Bowl Run), a 31-0 aberration opening day (Week One) 2003 (where Brady threw 4 Picks and no TD's which spurred the Patriots on to a 17-1 record the rest of the season culminating in the 2003 Super Bowl) and without much attached drama on another 4 Interception day from Brady Week Three 2011. Any team can win any game on any given day and if Brady throws 4 interceptions today the Patriots will likely lose as Brady has lost all 6 (of 210) of his regular season 4 interception games. A shift of 2 1/2 points in a game expected to be as close as this one is massive. Mobile quarterbacks, going back to Miami unleashing the Wildcat of the modern day NFL against New England in 2008, have given the Patriots trouble in the past however Belichick has adjusted to them pretty well over the years. New England does tend to lose more in September than in the later months but all of these things are looking for the exception. With the points, the Patriots make more sense than ever
Selection: New England Patriots @ 1/1 for 5 units/New England Patriots +1.5 for 5 units – 10 (16)
17/10 Seattle Seahawks +3.5 vs 1/2 Green Bay Packers -3.5 O/U 49
It is way too much to expect the Seahawks to repeat the aberration that was last week (against the Rams) especially against a team they match up so well against. The Packers simply cannot stop the run and now that Marshawn Lynch has knocked off the offseason rust he should be primed to run it down Green Bay’s throat all night long. There is no denying that Russell Wilson is a significant liability capable of gift-wrapping the game for the Packers however look for Seattle’s defence to emphatically show that last week’s debacle was assuredly a one-off and that they can get along quite well thank you very much while Kam Chancellor watches the game at home on television instead of getting paid roughly $336,375.00 to honor his contract. Having written all that we suggest that you do not bet this one with both hands as Aaron Rodgers can win any game at any given time, especially at home where he almost never tosses a pick and almost never loses. Best to just take the points and hope that Wilson doesn’t literally throw the game away.
Selection: Seattle Seahawks +3.5 @ 10/11 for 2 units – 2 (14)
29/20 Houston Texans +3 vs 20/33 Carolina Panthers -3 O/U 39.5
The big question here is whether Ryan Mallett’s garbage time stats will translate into production while the outcome of the game is yet to be determined. Carolina’s win over Jacksonville really doesn’t tell us anything as Newton’s 71.3 passer rating was good enough to get the job done but hardly impressive. With Arian Foster expected to return and give Houston’s offence a much-needed shot-in-the-arm and the Texans getting 3 points we are going to shade that way and take the points.
Selection: Houston Texans +3 @ 10/11 for 1 unit – 1 (15)
4/7 St. Louis Rams -3.5 vs 31/20 Washington Redskins + 3.5 O/U 41
Things have never seemed to go Washington’s way since Dan “I Am A Clown” Snyder bought the team around the turn of the century meanwhile the St. Louis Rams have been chronic under-achievers since Jeff Fisher took over the Head Coach position 4 years ago. With the Redskins at home and getting points it would seem skilful to takes them however we are going to pass
Selection: None
2/5 Miami Dolphins -6 vs 21/10 Jacksonville Jaguars +6 O/U 41.5
The Dolphins will most probably win this one and cover the six points. They may even score 42 points all on their own however after l;ast week’s power shortage against the sad sack Redskins where they failed to score an offensive TD they are as equally difficult to back as the two steps forward, two steps back Jaguars. Pass.
Selection: None
5/6 Tennessee Titans -1 vs Evens Cleveland Browns +1 O/U 41.5
It is hard to tell what the Cleveland Browns are trying to achieve this season (for example, are they gunning for first overall draft pick?) while, on the surface, the Titans appear to have reinvented themselves as a contender albeit after a single game into the Mark Us Marry Oughta era down there in Nashville. The Titans favored on the road? Who would have thunk it?. Not us. We are not believers in Ken Wisenhunt hence we shall wait and see.
Selection: None
6/5 Atlanta Falcons +2.5 vs 5/7 New York Giants -2.5 O/U 51.5
Given the odds on the game, it appears that the general sentiment is that more people were impressed by the way the Giants almost won against the Cowboys than believe that the Atlanta renaissance, led by Dan Quinn and actual winners Week 1 over Chip Kelly’s revamped Eagles. It seems that most people believe that the Cowboys, sans Demarco Murray, are still the top dog in the NFC East and the Eagles are not for real. We do not agree. The Eagles were a missed 44 yard field goal away from beating the Falcons and will, in time, pull away from the rest of the division. It was hard to believe how fast the Falcon’s defence got so bad under Mike Smith however given the very often under estimated effect of very good coaching, a la Bill Belichick for example, the Atlanta defence merely required to be properly coached. Players like Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski may appear to dominate the competition however without the tremendous jobs coaching by the New England staff, they would be pretty much hit and miss like everyone else instead of in the thick of it every single year (the Patriots have played in the AFC Championship the past 4 years in a row). It is our belief that Atlanta should be favored in this game hence receiving the 2.5 points is a huge gift. Look for the Falcons to re-assert themselves as the NFC South Champions under Dan Quinn this season (they are now favored but you can still get 8/5 on them to do so) and more down the line. It is in games like these that the ability to see things as they truly are, beyond the hype, can pay huge dividends over an extended time period.
Selection: Atlanta Falcons +2.5 @ 10/11 for 5 units – 5 (20)
6/5 Detroit Lions +2.5 vs 5/7 Minnesota Vikings -2.5 O/U 43
The last time the Vikings beat the Lions (12/29/2013) Matt Cassel was the QB. If you look back at our earlier blogs, you will find that we have never been impressed in the least by Teddy Bridgewater and his wobbly balls. In fact, Teddy has yet to beat a team with a winning record. Of course, we have never been impressed by Matt Stafford either and cannot understand his pay grade whatsoever (although he has slipped to 15th overall in the third year of his current contract while contracts have spiralled upwards the past two years with the significant salary cap increases). In any case, the Lions are a legitimate play-off contender in the weaker NFC, who just lost a tough one to the very good, and very tenacious, Phillip Rivers led San Diego Chargers whereas the Vikings are not much of anything. Zimmer is a pretty good coach who can come up with schemes to beat the lesser teams but doesn’t have the horses to win on a consistent basis. He should have hung onto Matt Cassel as when Bridgewater bombs out, and he will bomb out, Zimmer no longer has a viable Plan “B”.
Selection: Detroit Lions @ 6/5 for 3 units/Detroit Lions +2.5 @ 10/11 for 3 units – 6 (26)
4/5 Arizona Cardinals -2 vs 21/20 Chicago Bears +2 O/U 46
We took intially were lulled into a false sense of security surrounding this game by Arizona's 10 wins seasons (and Chicago's lack thereof), the Cardinal's relatively easy Week One win, Cutler's patented 4th quarter interception to Clay Matthews that we failed to see where Fox Really has made a difference. Last year the Packers dominated the Bears in both games (they won the "close" one by 20) whereas Chicago was driving down one score with under 4 minutes left when Matthews picked-off Cutler and when they got the ball back they did score and get the on-side kick off. Meanwhile Carson Palmer was moving with the grace and dexterity of
Selection: Chicago Bears +2 for 2 units and Over 46 for 2 units – 6 (32)
7/2 Tampa Bay Bucs +10 vs 1/5 New Orleans Saints -10 O/U 47
Already the huge odds/spreads on Tampa Bay and it is only Week 2!!! Will Winston win a game this year? Will he ever? 1/5 is simply too short of a price however 140 points doesn’t look like so much after Tampa’s 28 point deficit last week against the “other” rookie QB Mark Us Marry Oughta. Nah.
Selection: None
29/20 San Diego Chargers +3 vs 20/33 Cincinnati Bengals -3 O/U 47
It is interesting sometimes to note how short the public’s memory can become on a consistent basis with regards to certain players and teams, case in point Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals, perhaps the perfect model to define inconsistency. Last season the Bengals were humiliated by the Browns in Week 10 in a game where Dalton’s passer rating was 2 however the very next week they went down to New Orleans and whupped the Saints with Andy putting up a passer rating of 143.9 and went on to make yet another one-and-done post season appearance. It is hard to know but the odds on this game may also be affected by the perceived bias that West Coast teams travelling to the East for what amounts to 10am starts as per their “body clocks” tend to not fare so well. While that may be statistically true, it doesn’t seem to affect San Diego who last year posted road victories in Buffalo and Baltimore. The final factor we considered for this game was the Bengals inconsistency versus the Chargers tendency to bunch together wins (and losses) with Rivers under center. In 2013 San Diego won 5 in a row including a post season win before bowing out in the Divisional Round while last season they won 5 straight and 3 straight (out of their 9 wins) and this year they are coming off a ferocious comeback to beat a pretty good Detroit squad. We will ride with the Chargers until they stop winning
Selection: San Diego Chargers @ 29/20 for 2 units /San Diego Chargers +3 @ 10/11 for 2 units – 4 (36)
11/5 San Francisco 49ers +6 vs 5/13 Pittsburgh Steelers -6 O/U 45.5
We do not like games like this where a team like San Fran is coming off of a convincing win, albeit over Teddy Wobbly Balls, while the Steelers were well beaten by a Patriots team far from playing their “A” game (although Brady was on fire and completed 19 consecutive passes at one point). It looks to good to be true (so it probably is) nevertheless we have to go with San Fran for a double.
Selection: San Francisco 49ers @ 11/5 for 2 units / San Francisco 49ers +6 @ 10/11 for 2 units -4 (40)
5/14 Baltimore Ravens -6.5 vs 12/5 Oakland Raiders +6.5 O/U 43
Denver simply shut down Flacco and the entire Raven offence in Week 1 and the word is that the Oakland pass rush is maybe even more intense. Problem with Raiders is Carr. Ravens loss of Suggs will prove devastating.
Selection:
9/5 Dallas Cowboys +5 vs 5/11 Philadelphia Eagles -5 O/U 55
It is too hard to go against Chip Kelly until we see what he has and yet 5/11 is too short a price to go after. Best to Watch and Learn.
Selection: None
Monday Night Football
13/5 New York Jets +7 vs 5/16 Indianapolis Colts -7 O/U 46.5
The Colts cannot stop the run and don’t have the right chemistry. The Jets have the secondary to shut down Luck, the front seven to negate Gore and their own running game to stuff Indy.
Selection: New York Jets @ 13/5 for 3 units/New York Jets +7 @ 10/11 for 3 units – 6 (46)
Idiotic statement about wilson being a liability by the writer.. Its clear he has disdain for mr. Wilson.
ReplyDeleteThe Seattle Seahawks issued ridiculous contracts to very average players and an incredibly mediocre QB was given a mind boggling $31 million signing bonus. This is a guy (Wilson) who somehow survived a 4 interception outing in the NFC Championship (greatly aided by perhaps the worst tandem of play calling mistakes in the history of the game by McCarthy & Capers who, after intercepting Wilson for the fourth time with 5:13 remaining ahead 19-7 with Aaron Rodgers, Eddy Lacy, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and a cast of 1,000's at their disposal (and Seattle down to one time out) proceeded to somehow lose the game), was 9 of 18 for 100 something yards in the Super Bowl itself around the two minute warning when Malcolm Butler knocked a Wilson pass straight up in the air while Logan Ryan leapt over Kearse instead of pummeling him into the turf (as the ball was still “live”) while the nation watched the football magically drop out of the sky into Kearse’s hands, again leaving Wilson with an actual chance to pull out yet another improbable win (however this game was against perhaps the game’s best coach, instead of the “Dynamic Duo” in Green Bay, who had had the New England players on the field practice the exact play that the Seahawks proceeded to execute poorly during the week) when Wilson (yet again) was intercepted. Pete Carroll had gone with a play with a tremendous success ratio in 2014 (indeed Russell Wilson was the only player to blow the execution of that specific play the entire season) but Wilson threw the ball high and away from his receiver instead of low and behind (where only the receiver could have made the play) and it was game over. In 2015, Russell Wilson picked right up where he left off in February, throwing an interception inside his own red zone early which resulted in points and on the final Seahawk drive in OT was stopped on downs after hesitating on third down run to come up a yard short and doing possibly the worst ever job of selling the read-option on fourth down leaving Lynch out on an island swarmed by a million little Jeff Fishers (maybe not-so-little).
DeleteIn summary, during his last 3 games (covering the periods immediately before and after the $31 Million Bonus), Russell Wilson averaged roughly 19 completions on 30 attempts for 250 yards and threw 4 TD’s against 6 Interceptions for a passer rating of 74.74, the numbers of an incredibly mediocre QB. By contrast, a truly elite QB named Tom Brady, over the corresponding 3 games, averaged 29 completions on 39 attempts for 280 yards with 11 TD’s against 3 Interceptions for a passer rating of 113.25 (against Indianapolis, Seattle and Pittsburgh) and won a Super Bowl and a Super Bowl MVP Award along the way. In closing, the writer feels neither disdain towards Wilson nor pride towards Brady. Personal feelings have nothing to do with anything when it comes to evaluating American Football for the purpose of making skilful wagers, and indeed the entire philosophy behind the website is to go beyond the hype and use the numbers, coaching and any other factors as may influence a games outcome (where applicable) to paint a picture of how things truly are.
Idiotic statement about wilson being a liability by the writer.. Its clear he has disdain for mr. Wilson.
ReplyDeleteThe Seattle Seahawks issued ridiculous contracts to very average players and an incredibly mediocre QB was given a mind boggling $31 million signing bonus. This is a guy (Wilson) who somehow survived a 4 interception outing in the NFC Championship (greatly aided by perhaps the worst tandem of play calling mistakes in the history of the game by McCarthy & Capers who, after intercepting Wilson for the fourth time with 5:13 remaining ahead 19-7 with Aaron Rodgers, Eddy Lacy, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and a cast of 1,000's at their disposal (and Seattle down to one time out) proceeded to somehow lose the game), was 9 of 18 for 100 something yards in the Super Bowl itself around the two minute warning when Malcolm Butler knocked a Wilson pass straight up in the air while Logan Ryan leapt over Kearse instead of pummeling him into the turf (as the ball was still “live”) while the nation watched the football magically drop out of the sky into Kearse’s hands, again leaving Wilson with an actual chance to pull out yet another improbable win (however this game was against perhaps the game’s best coach, instead of the “Dynamic Duo” in Green Bay, who had had the New England players on the field practice the exact play that the Seahawks proceeded to execute poorly during the week) when Wilson (yet again) was intercepted. Pete Carroll had gone with a play with a tremendous success ratio in 2014 (indeed Russell Wilson was the only player to blow the execution of that specific play the entire season) but Wilson threw the ball high and away from his receiver instead of low and behind (where only the receiver could have made the play) and it was game over. In 2015, Russell Wilson picked right up where he left off in February, throwing an interception inside his own red zone early which resulted in points and on the final Seahawk drive in OT was stopped on downs after hesitating on third down run to come up a yard short and doing possibly the worst ever job of selling the read-option on fourth down leaving Lynch out on an island swarmed by a million little Jeff Fishers (maybe not-so-little).
DeleteIn summary, during his last 3 games (covering the periods immediately before and after the $31 Million Bonus), Russell Wilson averaged roughly 19 completions on 30 attempts for 250 yards and threw 4 TD’s against 6 Interceptions for a passer rating of 74.74, the numbers of an incredibly mediocre QB. By contrast, a truly elite QB named Tom Brady, over the corresponding 3 games, averaged 29 completions on 39 attempts for 280 yards with 11 TD’s against 3 Interceptions for a passer rating of 113.25 (against Indianapolis, Seattle and Pittsburgh) and won a Super Bowl and a Super Bowl MVP Award along the way. In closing, the writer feels neither disdain towards Wilson nor pride towards Brady. Personal feelings have nothing to do with anything when it comes to evaluating American Football for the purpose of making skilful wagers, and indeed the entire philosophy behind the website is to go beyond the hype and use the numbers, coaching and any other factors as may influence a games outcome (where applicable) to paint a picture of how things truly are.
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