NFL 2015 Week Five Epilogue

Mixed results Week Five as some teams met our expectations while others struggled. Such is the nature of the game. A final look before moving on to Week Six

Sunday's Games

7/5 Seattle Seahawks +3.0   @   5/8 Cincinnati Bengals -3.0   O/U   43.0 1.       CIN 27 SEA 24

Our first pick and best bet came through as Any Dalton overcame a Fumble Six (Like a Pick Six except is a Pick Up the Ball and Run with It Six) and a Pick that led to a Seattle Field Goal, spotting Seattle 10 points and then scoring 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to go to overtime and win. As anticipated, the Bengals defence came through when it counted allowing Seattle only one first down in the final quarter and coming up with pair of key stops in overtime as yet again Russell Wilson failed badly. Too bad the Steelers won the NFC North

7/2 St. Louis Rams +9.0   @   1/5 Green Bay Packers -9.0   O/U   46.0               STL 10 GB 24

Well the St Louis Rams defence deserves some credit here as Aaron Rodgers came out of the game with a passer rating of only 82 and limiting Green Bay to 17 offensive points. Rams new QB Nick Foles tossed 4 interceptions, one of which was a Pick Six and another two deep in the red zone. The Rams easily could have won this game if they were well coached but they are not. Jeff Fisher is the reason you need to get at least 5/2 on this team to stay ahead in the long run.

6/4 Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0   @   10/17 Tampa Bay -3.0   O/U   42.5                JAC 31 TB 38

With Jacksonville we are trying to find a team that is just getting good enough to win. Based on their roster and coaching the problem lies with the players. It is extremely tough to break a losing mentality and coach Gus Brady needs to bring in some veterans that know how to win that his players will respect. Bortles is most probably the best young QB since Andrew Luck (We think Luck is overrated) and their lineup and coaching is good enough for them to beat non-elite teams. They can still finish 9-7 which might do it in a very weak AFC South.

5/2 Cleveland Browns +6.5   @   1/3 Baltimore Ravens -6.5   O/U   43.5         CLE 33 BAL 30

Was there ever any doubt that Josh McCown was going to throw for over 450 yards and knock around the Ravens at home? With the Bengals at 5-0 the Browns are going to sweep the season series and then some to make the Playoffs. The Ravens would almost need to win out.

13/5 Washington Redskins +7.0   @   5/16 Atlanta Falcons -7.0   O/U       WAS 19 ATL 25 OT 
Washington went down to Atlanta and were tied at the end of four quarters which shows us that we were correct in assessing the overall strength of both sides to be relatively equal. In overtime, Cousins had driven the Redskins to within 10 yards of field goal range when he threw a Pick Six when Ryan Grant fell down making his cut and Robert Alford ran it in to end the game.  This Week Six Atlanta is already 1/2 for their visit to New Orleans while the Redskins look playable at better than 2/1 when visit New Jersey to take on the 3-1 Jets an QB Ryan Fitzpatrick  who has never won more games than he has lost in a single year.

13/4 Chicago Bears +9.0   @   2/9 Kansas City Chiefs -9.0   O/U   45.5                CHI 18 KC 17 
We saw last week that John Fox was not lying down in an NFC where the Bears would be almost tied for the second Wild Card (Minnesota is on their Bye Week) at 2-3. Jay Cutler has a higher ceiling as a Quarterback than Alex Smith and John Fox is getting what he needs from his defence and the Bears are winning some games. The Bears are still getting no respect as they are at 7/5 for their next game against winless Detroit. Matt Forte may be the most underrated back in the league. 13/4 was an awfully good price on this game

1/4 New England Patriots -8.5   @   3/1 Dallas Cowboys +8.5   O/U   49.5           NE 33 DAL 6

The Juggernaut that is the New England Patriots rolled into Dallas on Sunday and for a while it looked like Brandon Weeden Cowboys were going to make a game of it when the drove the ball for over six (6) minutes in the First Quarter to tie the game at 3-3 however such was not to be the case as the Patriots made Dallas go 3-and-out the rest of the first half while Belichick was no doubt scheming how to keep the Dallas pass rush from sacking Brady as Dallas collected 5 sacks in the first half (and none in the second. The Patriots ability to make in-game adjustments due to superior training allowed them to come out in the second half and dominate as their seventh overall points Defence held Dallas to a FG only while their second overall points Offence chugged along, eventually putting up 30 points in the 30-6 game. The Cowboys need to score some points and really ought to have someone who is not Brandon Weeden under center.

5/11 Denver Broncos -4.5   @   9/5 Oakland Raiders +4.5   O/U   43.5                DEN 16 OAK 10

We suggested the under for a reason – The Broncos can’t score points. To date Denver has not been able to score while their defence has beaten up on the teams at the bottom of the league. The Raiders are slowing getting better and had Carr not thrown that Pick Six the Raiders might very well have won this one. The Broncos second half of the season schedule contains five (5) games against 2014 Playoff teams plus San Diego twice. Oakland can still take this division if they win the games they’re capable of.

 6/4 Pittsburgh Steelers +3.0   @   10/17 San Diego Chargers -3.0   O/U   44.5      PIT 24 SD 20

The odds here were very generous given that Mike Vick did his job last time and put the Steelers in a position to win last time out and was only going to improve. The Steelers rode Levian Bell to over 150 yards rushing with Vick pitching in and not turning the ball over (except a Hail Mary with no time on the clock) leaving us with two things: i) When Roethlisberger returns the Steelers will stick be in the mix; ii) The Chargers are very unlikely to be a Playoff team this season.

9/5 New Orleans Saints +5   @   5/11 Philadelphia Eagles -5   O/U   49.0               PHI 39 NO 17

With two as yet unbeaten squads in their division the Saints are almost out of the running already at 1-4 and with no real expectation of thongs getting much better. In Philadelphia it is hard to know what is going on. Despite the Eagles much discussed start they can be tied for first in their division if they can beat the visiting Giants.

20/29 Arizona Cardinals -2.5   @   5/4 Detroit Lions +2.5   O/U   45.0                   ARI 42 DET 17

Looks like without Suh and Fairley this Lion team hasn’t got it. There is a chance they suffered a let down after having the win over Seattle taken from them and could bounce back next week against Chicago but we think John Fox is producing a better on-field product.

12/5 San Francisco 49ers +7.0   @   5/14 New York Giants -7.0   O/U   43.0          NYG 30 SF 27

The 49ers showed up to play in this game with Kaepernick not turning the ball over and they were ahead by 4 points with under two (2) minutes left with the Giants at their own 19 but could not close the game out. The Giants meanwhile chalk up another one and are looking more and more like a Playoff team as the season preogresses.

2/1 Indianapolis Colts +5.0   @   5/12 Houston Texans -5.0   O/U   41.0              IND 27 HOU 20

This game was terrible to watch. It is hard to believe was saw a Playoff team on Thursday Night.