Hard to believe the season is almost 1/3rd over however players and coaches certainly know it. Despite losing Nate Solder and Brown for the season, the Patriots are going to destroy the Colts. This week started off with a Home Underdog winning outright with the Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers and Indianapolis Colts all Home Dogs this weekend. We get why people might like the (unbeaten) Broncos over the Browns however Josh McCown has thrown for over 300 yards the last two weeks which saw Cleveland win in overtime last week against the Ravens and missed going to OT two weeks ago when Tramon Williams jumped offside on a field goal miss with no time left on the clock allowing the Chargers to re-kick from five yards closer and win.
The very same 1-4 Ravens that Cleveland beat last week are favored this week in San Francisco despite their record and the fact that San Fran has had a brutal schedule where the only team to beat them that is not in first place in their division was the Big Ben version of the Steelers. At the Ralph in Orchard Park the unbeaten Cincinnati Bengals are favored over the home-town Bills due in part to their come from behind overtime win over a very overrated Seahawks team. The Steelers are underdogs at home to the Arizona Cardinals, another vastly overrated squad.
Finally, the Indianapolis Colts are underdogs at home to the New England Patriots in the place that the whole deflated footballs issue got started. It is interesting to note that after putting up 28 unanswered points in the second half (after the officials had re-inflated the balls) to complete a 45-7 massacre of the Colts the Patriots have not lost a game since, including a victory in the Super Bowl.
1/2 Denver Broncos -4.0 @ 17/10 Cleveland Browns +4.0 O/U 42
The Broncos have won all of their games so far by playing stifling defence however the teams that they have beaten are the ones with the worst records in the league. Cleveland has been gelling as a team and is a costly offside penalty away from a winning record and a slice of the lead in the contentious AFC North. Denver has lost Demarcus Ware already and Talib is hurting while Josh McCown has been tearing it up with a passer rating over 100 this season while Manning languishes in the 70’s.
Selection: Cleveland Browns @ 17/10 for 3 Units /Cleveland Browns +4 for 3 Units
33/20 Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 @ 10/19 Minnesota Vikings -3.5 O/U 43.0
Teams have twigged to Alex Smith’s shortcomings and he has just lost his outstanding running back, Jamaal Charles, for the season. The Vikings are 2-2 with Adrian Peterson back and could win at that price we will pass.
Selection: None
6/4 Chicago Bears +3.0 @ 10/17 Detroit Lions -3.0 O/U 43
John Fox has the Bears playing decent football and a win here would pull them up to 0.500 while the Lions sit 0-5 and last overall in the league. Have to go with the Bears at these odds.
Selection: Chicago Bears @ 6/4 for 3 Units/Chicago Bears +3.0 for 3 Units
5/8 Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 @ 7/5 Buffalo Bills +3.5 O/U 42.5
The Bills continue to get over bet. They just barely scraped by one of the worst teams in the league (Tennessee) and have EJ Manuel back under center. Cincinnati meanwhile has been playing like a top Playoff seed, especially the way they hung tough last Sunday and put away the Seahawks. Although Andy Dalton may not be an elite Quarterback his Passer Rating is off the chart and wily old Marvin Lewis has no doubt taken note of how to negate the Bills pass rush. The spread is high for a road win.
Selection: Cincinnati Bengals @ 5/8 for 8 Units
20/21 Miami Dolphins +1.0 @ 20/23 Tennessee Titans -1.0 O/U 43.5
The Dolphins are a better team than their 1-3 record might indicate and are coming off their Bye Week with a shiny new Head Coach in Dan Campbell. We are not fans of the Titans under Ken Wisenhunt. A good game to pass on.
Selection: None
5/2 Washington Redskins +6.0 @ 1/3 New York Jets- 6.0 O/U 40.5
The Redskins come off of a hard road loss in Georgia last week only to visit New Jersey this week where Ryan Fitzpatrick has the Jets at 3-1, which is where he had the Texans at last year before dropping three (3) straight games. The Jets are pretty banged up for a team coming off of an early Bye Week. This game will likely come down to execution and if Kirk Cousins doesn’t throw any interceptions Washington can win.
Selection: Washington Redskins @ 5/2 for 3 Units/Washington Redskins +6.0 for 3 Units
10/19 Arizona Cardinals -3.0 @ 33/20 Pittsburgh Steelers +3.0 O/U 44.5
It is unusual to see a Playoff team as a home underdog and yet that is the exact situation here. The Steelers got it done in San Diego with Mike Vick and they can win at home with him. Arizona has been running the score up on some pretty bad teams whereas Pittsburgh is a missed Field Goal away from being 4-0 since losing to the Patriots in the season opener. Bet Pittsburgh with both hands.
Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers @ 33/20 for 8 Units/Pittsburgh Steelers +3.0 for 8 Units
21/20 Houston Texans +1.5 @ 4/5 Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 O/U 43.0
The Jaguars need to settle down, play good defence and wait for the breaks to come. And they will come in this game as both Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett have a penchant for turning the ball over. While we have gone back to ground with regards to Jacksonville, Houston has shown us no reason why they should be bet. The Texans opened as 1.5 point favorites so the spread has shifted a full Field Goal.
Selection: None
13/5 Carolina Panthers +7.0 @ 5/16 Seattle Seahawks -7.0 O/U 40.5
Here’s one that makes no sense at all. The Panthers may not have beaten much so far this year on the way to 4-0 but Seattle would be 1-4 if the officials had not given them the Detroit game and therein lay the rub: If Seattle was life-and-death with winless Detroit, how can you justify them being 5/16 against a Playoff team? The Seahawks are not going to the Playoffs this season whether they win this one or not.
Selection: Carolina Panthers @ 13/5 for 8 Units/Carolina Panthers +7.0 for 8 Units
15/4 San Diego Chargers +10.5 @ 2/11 Green Bay Packers -10.5 O/U 50.5
Everyone seems to want to make the Packers the favorite to win at least the NFC if not the Super Bowl however Green Bay is coming off a game where Gurley rushed for 150 yards and might have had a much different outcome if Nick Foles had not thrown four (4) Interceptions. Rivers always seems to lose to Rodgers by a TD so a 10.5 point spread has got to look good. Plus the Packers need to be taken down a peg. Take the points and, if you are brave, take the Chargers to win.
Selection: San Diego Chargers +10.5 for 4 Units
10/13 Baltimore Ravens -2.0 @ 11/10 San Francisco 49ers +2.0 O/U 43.5
The 1-4 Baltimore Ravens are favored on the over the 1-4 San Francisco 49ers because…..well because nothing. The Ravens just got whupped by Cleveland…Cleveland! Fifty year old Josh McCown (actually he is only 36) put up huge numbers against the Ravens not so great defence. The 49ers are at home haven’t played any worse than the Ravens. At only slightly better than evens though it is most probably better to pass on this game.
Selection: None
5/19 New England Patriots -9.0 @ 29/10 Indianapolis Colts +9.0 O/U 54.5
The New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts Sunday night, prime time, nowhere to hide. If Chuck Pagano were smart he would let Andrew Luck rest his separated shoulder, especially given Luck’s past performances against New England, but he isn’t, he won’t and Luck will play. And get sacked. A lot. I am pretty sure Belichick, McDaniels and Brady will have cooked up a way to really run up the score here. Bet as much as you want to on the Patriots to cover.
Selection: New England Patriots -9.0 for 8 Units
Monday Night Football
21/10 New York Giants +5.0 @ 2/5 Philadelphia Eagles -5.0 O/U 50.0
The Philadelphia Eagles are 2-3 however their win over the Jets doesn’t count for much as Ryan Fitzpatrick and his three (3) Interceptions was more of a gift than anything else. The Eagles other win was over New Orleans, the team with perhaps the worst defence in the league. The Giants could easily be 5-0 but forgetting all that, the Eagles haven’t done anything to justify these odds.
Selection: New York Giants @ 21/10 for 3 Units/ New York Giants +5.0 for 3 Units
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