The NFL in the Moment - Week Eleven 2015

We are now into the football season. We know that it is true because Bill Belichick said it was. The next four (4) games are critical as this is where playoff positions are won and lost.  A record of 4-5 looks like the entry ticket for a possible Wild Card berth in both conferences although the 3-6 Jaguars have an outside shot at capturing the AFC South. If only Jags kicker Myers hadn’t have missed the first FG, or the second FG, or even the third FG in OT against Indy they would be in first place and Indy would be in their shoes. Ah, kickers. The Patriots do not overpay anyone and seldom pay the highest salary for any position but, knowing the importance of this critical position, they pay Gotskowski more than any other kicker (who replaced the second best kicker, Adam Vineteri, who is still mostly golden in Indianapolis). 

Having predicted the game in which, precisely, Green Bay, Denver and Cincinnati would all stop being unbeaten this season, which team will it be this week? There is an awful lot of nonsense flying around about MVP candidates and anything else that you can dream up. The reality is that almost every team has seven (7) games left to play, which is pretty much half of a season during which pretty much anything can happen. We have to admit it was fun watching Detroit slap Aaron Rodgers around last week, almost as much fun as roasting Andy Dalton for how he reacted to JJ Watt’s Red Ryder BB Gun comment. This week we may get to watch Cam Newton cry on TV (again). 

Mike Zimmer was in the news for defending Teddy Wobblyballs, with their Vikings actually favored over the Packers and all. What did the reporters expect him to say? “I talked the GM into drafting a guy who can’t throw and can’t run.” Tony Romo returns to an incredibly dysfunctional Dallas Cowboys franchise and the Cowboys were initially favored in South Beach before to spread moved to Pick ‘Em and are now once again favored by a point. There was an awful lot more wrong with the team that lost 10-6 against Tampa last week than Matt Cassel and it is extremely doubtful that the Cowboys will get things sorted out this year, never mind this week. Mark Sanchez and the Eagles are also favored? We all know how that one ends.

13/10 Tennessee Titans – 3.0 at 4/6 Jacksonville Jaguars + 3.0

It was all well and good going with the Jaguars when they were long shots or at least getting points but this being favored business is an entirely different kettle of fish. It was extremely unlikely that the Titans were going to beat Carolina last week, however,…nothing. Jacksonville should win easily but they are a young team and this game should be approached with caution.

Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars – 3.0/Jacksonville Jaguars @ 4/6

5/6 Oakland Raiders – 1.0 at 1/1 Detroit Lions + 1.0

Hard to believe that the team that knocked off Green Bay last week is a home underdog against the Raiders but that is certainly the case here. We weren’t comfortable with the Raiders last week and we aren’t this week either. We actually expect Detroit to win but have learned our lesson about betting on Matt Stafford. A very good game to avoid.

Selection: None

5/4 St. Louis Rams + 2.5 at 20/29 Baltimore Ravens – 2.5

If you wanted to put together the very best situation you could for gunslinger Case Keenum to succeed in his first start for the Rams this would be it. Last season, when the Ravens were good, old Case there won his first ever NFL start against the playoff bound version of this team last season, not the 2-7 unit playing this season. Baltimore does not have a running game and does not have a passing game at this point. Unless they score an awful lot on defence, having lost special teams threat Torrey Smith to the 49ers in the offseason they won’t be scoring many points at all. We have to go with the Rams here despite our aversion to Head Coach Jeff Fisher. A lot of bettors likely got burned last week when St. Louis lost to a Bears team that is well coached and better than most people think.

Selection: St. Louis Rams + 2.5/ St. Louis Rams @ 5/4

11/5 Tampa Bay + 6.0 at 5/13 Philadelphia Eagles – 6.0

We thought that we heard that Bradford was out for this contest and now he is officially listed as out. The Eagles and the Bucs have the exact same record and have faced pretty much the same competition but the Eagles have Sanchez and the Bucs don’t. Take the Bucs.

Selection: Tampa Bay +6.0/Tampa Bay @ 11/5

21/10 Indianapolis Colts + 6.0 at 2/5 Atlanta Falcons – 6.0

It is getting to the point in the season where statistical anomalies do not mean much and common sense, one would think, would begin to prevail. The Falcons have lost games to the weaker teams in the league in and three (3) of their last four (4) contests, with an uninspiring 10-7 victory over the Titans sandwiched in the middle. Both teams come off of their Bye Weeks with the Colts looking to mount a playoff run while Atlanta looks like a team that is going to miss the playoffs and could easily lose this one and the next five (5) games to be 7-8 going into their finale. Hasselback (healthy) has been playing better than Luck (injured) all season, so him being in the game is actually a good thing for the Colts.

Selection: Indianapolis Colts + 6.0/Indianapolis Colts @ 21/10

11/4 Washington Redskins + 7.0 at 2/7 Carolina Panthers – 7.0

Captain Kirk Cousins is finally coming into his own as an NFL Quarterback this season and although his last game was against the defenceless Saints, you could see in the New England game that he was much better this season and even this month. The Panthers meanwhile are on an ego-fest, believing the nonsense that is being written about them, and are due for a fall from grace. Long shot bets are not without risk but this looks like a very good bet to make.

Selection: Washington Redskins + 7.0/Washington Redskins @ 11/4

20/23 Denver Broncos – 1.0 at 21/20 Chicago Bears +1.0

This game opened with the Bears favored by one (1) point as lots of money obviously came in on the Broncos. We believe that that will be money well burnt. We really do not know why people always neglect to take the experience factor into consideration when it comes to NFL Quarterbacks. Brock Osweiler has a passer rating of 72 this season and it will likely be lower after this game. Of all the games to start the poor kid in Kubiak picks the one against the one coach in the NFL who knows him intimately, John Fox. Yes, Jay Cutler is error prone and tends to choke, and yes Aqib Talib is back this week, but Cutler is a professional football player who has won 65 games. Just look at Kirk Cousins. Cousins became an NFL quarterback only a few weeks ago in Tampa Bay. He played well in Foxborough despite the score as the shadows were very bad and his receivers were dropping balls all over the place. If you look up the record of Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman, Joe Montana in their first ten (10) starts you won’t find many wins. Just remember that the last time Gary Kubiak got to run “his” offence, the Texans finished 2-14 WITH JJ Watt.

Selection: Chicago Bears 1.0/ Chicago Bears @ 21/20

5/6 Dallas Cowboys -1.0 at 1/1 Miami Dolphins + 1.0

Have you ever seen what happens when you wake up a bear when he really doesn’t want to get up? Suffice it to say that it doesn’t go very well. Greg Hardy and the Toxic Cowboys visit South Beach this weekend where, despite being 2-7, they are favored because half-healed Tony Romo is playing. If you are Ndamukong Suh and have already earned $90 million (with another $65 million guaranteed) it takes quite a bit to get your blood boiling. Take last week’s Patriots at Giants match up. If the Giants were able to sustain that level for the entire season they would be finishing this season at 15-1 but, of course, they can’t. The Patriots bring out the best in every team they meet. That’s what makes them the most enjoyable to watch, for us at least. Brady has been beaten 47 times during the regular season so he is far from unbeatable. But you need to ratchet your game up all the way. But now there is Greg Hardy, a truly evil man, whose mere presence on the field is a personal affront to many players, one would imagine defensive linemen the most (guilt by association)? If this game doesn’t wake up Suh, nothing will. We certainly would not want to be Romo’s insurance carrier. Whatever happens, the Greg Hardy saga will not end well.

Selection Miami Dolphins + 1.0/Miami Dolphins @ 1/1

10/17 Kansas City Chiefs – 3.0 at 6/4 San Diego Chargers + 3.0

The Chiefs have been on fire of late after their mystifying five (5) games losing skid (they had Jamaal Charles for four [4] of those games so losing him wasn’t the reason) and can claw their way back to 0.500 with a win over the hard-luck Chargers. Unfortunately, that is how you have to do things when your Quarterback is Alex Smith. It can be physically painful watching a Chiefs game. How bad is it in San Diego? Well, the Patriots have had problems with their offensive line. The Chargers entire offensive line is injured. That isn’t a problem, it’s a complete disaster. Unable to run the ball (San Diego is 30th, eight [8] yards ahead of # 31), Rivers has had to throw for more yards than any Quarterback not named Tom Brady. San Diego is down both starting cornerbacks, their middle linebacker, their best wide receivers…. The list just keeps on going. Probably a good game to stay away from but 6/4 on Rivers looks mighty enticing, Eh?

Selection: None

1/1 Green Bay Packers + 1.0 at 5/6 Minnesota Vikings – 1.0

Wow, lose a few games and the next thing you know, not only are you not the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, you are the underdog against Teddy Wobblyballs. Adrian Peterson has been killing it running the ball and coach Zimmer has put together a pretty good defence but the Vikings don’t have a Quarterback (121 yards passing last week) and we have seen how this one ends before as well. Despite Green Bay’s apparent inability to stop the run, Adrian Peterson is 4-9-1 against the Packers while Aaron Rodgers is 10-4 against the Vikings, with 3 of those losses being to the guy he replaced, Brett Farve. This is like stealing.

Selection: Green Bay Packers + 1.0/ Green Bay Packers @ 1/1

13/2 San Francisco 49ers + 13.0 at 1/10 Seattle Seahawks – 13.0

Seattle has lost more games than they have won, hell they have lost more games than they have lost (Detroit!) and should have an identical 3-6 record to San Francisco’s. A lot of snide remarks have been made about Blaine Gabbert but looking at his stat line in his win over the Falcons it looks identical to the numbers Wilson puts up almost religiously. Both of his interceptions were on deep balls that compared favorably to punts so they hurt the 49ers not at all. While Seattle won in wherever it is that San Fran plays these days, that was against Kaepernick who put up 19 points total in four (4) of his last six (6) outings (an average of 4.75 points per game). 13/2 when the teams are so close is just too tempting, but keep the wager relatively small. On some level, we would like to see Seattle win here so that we can get pretty good odds on the Steelers next week but, Nah. We will be happier to see them lose both.

Selection: San Francisco 49ers @ 13/2

9/5 Cincinnati Bengals + 4.5 at 5/11 Arizona Cardinals – 4.5

The Arizona Cardinals have had a soft schedule and have yet to beat a team with a decent record (beating the tandem of Mike Vick and Landry Jones doesn’t count) and have the buzz saw Bengals coming to town. Carson Palmer and Chris Johnson are past it and while we are not fussy on Dalton, Cincinnati should have this one well in hand. Nothing would please us more than seeing Arizona lock up the NFC West early and watching the Bengals stumble back to the field in the AFC North. Liking either Quarterback not at all, normally we would go with experience but Arizona has been winning despite turning the ball over at an alarming rate. They simply will not get away with that against one of the better defences in the AFC. We would advise hammering the Bengals except for the fact that Andy Dalton can put up a passer rating of 2.0 without any notice. So tread lightly. 

Selection: Cincinnati Bengals + 4.5/ Cincinnati Bengals @ 9/5

3/5 New York Jets – 3.0 at 23/15 Houston Texans + 3.0
Brian Hoyer, who had been playing like a top-ten Quarterback, got hurt during the Texans victory over the previously unbeaten Bengals last week so TJ Yates came in during the third quarter and threw the game-winning touchdown. Yates has not started since his rookie year (2011) when he went 2-3 so it is possible that he has improved after four (4) years of practice. It is interesting that the Texans are going up against their primary starter from last year, Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets just lost at home to the Bills and did not look good in the process. The strength of Houston, their defence, seems to finally have gotten going and should know how to shut down Fitzpatrick better than anyone to hang on to their share of the lead in the AFC South.
Selection: Houston Texans + 3.0/Houston Texans @ 23/15

11/4 Buffalo Bills +7.0 at 2/7 New England Patriots – 7.0

As is usually the case, the New York Giants raised their game several notches in a real barn-burner last Sunday, with the Patriots losing number one receiver Julian Edelman in the process. The Bills meanwhile are coming off of a tight win over Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets last Thursday in the pouring rain. With Kyle Williams out it should be a lot easier for New England to run the ball so we expect the Patriots to pound the ball with LeGarrette Blount and running a lot of play-action off of that. New England has a very good run defence for the first time since Vince Wilfork was a dominant player (in other words, quite a while) and if they can stop McCoy, Car Part will need to beat them by passing from the pocket. We expect Brady to find an extra gear during a third quarter wherein the Patriots will blow the game wide open. Stay away from the 2/7 but give the points.

Selection: New England Patriots – 7.0