NFL Week Ten
Our Week Nine wrap up is below. We will never understand people’s aversion to Matt Cassel. The most impressive things he did last week were turning a very good kickoff return by Lucky Whitehead into seven points immediately after getting intercepted for a pick six and a nice two-minute drill with 1:46 to go in the game into a nine play 53 yard drive setting up the tying Field Goal to send the game into overtime. Cassel gets no respect, which for us, is a good thing as it creates opportunity. Dallas are underdogs in Tampa this Sunday where Lovie Smith’s Tampa Two defence (basically a sloppy zone taking pressure off of the cornerbacks) is about to get sliced and diced by Witten and Beasley with a shot here and there down the field to Bryant.
Jeff Fisher was in the news this week for all the wrong reasons which caused more than one writer to attack his mediocre-to-poor record over the past decade (sound familiar? It should - Scroll down to read all about it) coupled with the constant re-occurrences of dirty play by his teams and his decision to hire Bounty-Gate henchman Gregg Williams as his Defensive Coordinator. John Fox brings his Chicago Bears into town at delicious odds of 5/2 fresh off a road win over Philip Rivers in San Diego.
Vic Fangio has Chicago playing better defence it seems each week and it turns out there is some life left in Jay Cutler after all. With the Falcons coming apart at the seams after their promising start and the Vikings playoff aspirations hanging on the spindly legs of Teddy Wobblyballs 9-7 could very well garner a Wildcard and the Bears could very well be in the race if they can win two (2) of their next three (3), possibly taking advantage of the inevitable crash and burn Denver is headed for as the weather gets cold.
The New England Patriots visit the Meadowlands to face the New York Giants for the first time during the regular season since 2011 (when curiously the game was also in New Jersey) where they lost their final game of that season (to go 13-3) before the Super Bowl. The Patriots are huge favorites at 2/7 while giving the Giants a touchdown. This year’s model is not your typical run the ball/rush the passer type of Giants team a win over Tampa Bay away from a 52-49 loss to New Orleans. Giving seven points on the road to a team that has had your number historically is not normally prudent so beware!
The Chiefs still have an offensive line don’t seem to have lost much (about 0.5 YPC) transitioning from Charles to West but are only 2/1 when the visit Denver on Sunday although they are getting 5.5 points. Many it seems are wary of another collapse in Denver with Ware out for at least the next four (4) crucial games and Talib suspended for this one. The AFC has already seen the Kubiak/Phillips show and it looks like they have adjusted their sights to accommodate the different personnel. Peyton Manning remains the wildcard here. And finally, Houston waltzes into Cincinnati on Monday night at 4/1 and getting 11 points. The Bengals can’t finish at 16-0 (can they?) and Brian Hoyer is playing like a top 10 Quarterback. The price sure is nice.
2/1 Jacksonville Jaguars + 5.5 at 5/12 Baltimore Ravens – 5.5
Jacksonville looks like they are getting close to being a legitimate playoff threat as Blake Bortles continues to thrive at the NFL level. Bortles needs to eliminate the turnovers but has shown what we believe to be the most promise out of last year’s seemingly bountiful Quarterback harvest (along with Derek Carr and, believe it or don’t, Johnny Football) visit Baltimore where the 2-6 Ravens are 5/12 and giving 5.5 despite losing their number one (some say only) receiver Steve Smith with a torn Achilles. Given the injuries that have exposed a serious lack of depth at key positions that the Ravens have had it is hard to see how they will score more points than the Jaguars. Although the Patriots are the number one rushing defence based on allowing the fewest yards, the apple has not fallen very far from the tree (Gus Bradley was formerly Seattle's Defensive Coordinator) as the Jaguars lead in (what we believe to be) the more important category, fewest yards per attempt, at 3.2 per. Who is Flacco throwing to?
Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars @ 2/1/Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5
1/1 New Orleans Saints @ 1/1 Washington Redskins
Kirk Cousins actually played pretty well in Foxborough in a game where the shadows wreaked havoc on Patriots and Redskins leading to interceptions and drops all afternoon. Even sure-handed Pierre Garcon dropped a couple of key (potential) third down conversions while Cousin’s lone interception bounced off his receivers numbers. The defence did not stop the Patriots every time but they did force them to punt twice. This Saints team cannot play defence. Period. While much of the blame has to go on Rob Ryan, some of it has to go on the players. If Cousins can avoid turning the ball over the Redskins should win.
Selection: None
15/4 Detroit Lions + 10.5 at 2/11 Green Bay Packers – 10.5
The spread on this game came down from 12 in a hurry. Why that is, we do not know. Generally, when the Packers regroup like they need to after the two losses we predicted, it is with a blowout win and at home, against a sinking ship like the Lions, is the perfect place for that. We don’t think that you need fear giving the 10.5 points, but we like other games better.
Selection: None
10/21 Carolina Panthers – 4.0 at 7/4 Tennessee Titans + 4.0
At first glance one might think that the Panther should be favored by a lot more than four points. They would be right. Sure, the Titans threw Wisenhunt over the side and Mularkey won at first asking but putting Marcus Marryoughta up against the same defence that just stifled Aaron Rodgers is a bit silly, especially when Tennessee’s top cornerback (Jason McCourty) is out with a groin.
Selection: Carolina Panthers – 4.0
2/1 Cleveland Browns – 5.5 at 5/12 Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5
The Quarterback Carousel continues in Pittsburgh where neither the starting nor backup QB will be known until game time while the Browns plan to trot out McCown if he can go. There is no way to know what is fair here so this is an excellent game to stay away from.
Selection: None
5/2 Chicago Bears + 7.0 at 1/3 St. Louis Rams – 7.0
Perhaps we shall feel differently after the game but we do not see a lot between these two teams. Nick Foles has been playing abysmally and adding Wes Welker at this late stage isn’t likely to make a lot of difference. We see the edge in the Rams personnel being offset by the superior coaching enjoyed by the Bears. Jay Cutler excels when there is no pressure on him to win and 7.0 points is a big number for a team like the Rams who have scored less than 20 points in half of their games.
Selection: Chicago Bears @5/2 for a little/Chicago +7.0 for a lot more
1/1 Dallas Cowboys +1.0 at 5/6 Tampa Bay Bucs – 1.0
The Cowboys may be 2-6 but they are not one of the worst teams in the league from a roster standpoint. Why they would go into a season without any viable alternative with a Quarterback as close to the end of his career as Tony Romo is questionable until you realize that the partially senile owner acts as the GM and head of Player Personnel. In any case, they did acquire Matt Cassel and he is finally up to speed with the players and the playbook. Tampa is about a year behind Jacksonville however they did not come up with as nearly a good Quarterback prospect. Winston will never be consistent despite his potential. Time to get even on all of the money you burned on Dallas.
Selection: Dallas Cowboys @ 1/1/Dallas Cowboys + 1.0
11/5 Miami Dolphins +6.0 at 5/13 Philadelphia Eagles – 6.0
The 3-5 Dolphins are now 2-2 under Dan Campbell after starting 1-3 under Philbin however one of those two losses came up in Foxborough while the other one last week was in Buffalo, which is a tough place to play when the Bill’s defence is playing as well as it is right now. The Eagles had a lot of things go their way down in Dallas last week yet still needed the overtime coin toss and a meltdown by the Cowboy’s defence to happen simultaneously otherwise they too would be sitting at 3-5. While everyone keeps saying that this is the week finally that the Eagles take flight just be glad that they are saying that and take the points.
Selection: Miami Dolphins + 6.0
13/10 Minnesota Vikings +3.0 at 4/6 Oakland Raiders – 3.0
The Raiders are favored yet again this season against a 6-2 Vikings squad comprising of Adrian Peterson and a good defence. Mike Zimmer has a solid team everywhere except at Quarterback. This will be a good test for Carr and the Raiders fifth-ranked run defence. We can't see how Minnesota can win but this is not the first time we have felt that way and it has not worked out too well.
Selection: None
2/7 New England Patriots – 7.0 at 11/4 New York Giants + 7.0
There is no question that the Patriots are being over bet here as the first place Giants, at home, are always a tough beat. The Patriots are number one against the run and, if they can score 14 points in the first quarter, may be number one after the weekend as well, but don’t bet on it. Tom Coughlin is a very good coach with a very good staff and a pretty good Quarterback in Eli Manning. New England has a ton of injuries on their offensive line and is missing their best defender (Jamie Collins) for another week.
Selection: None
7/4 Kansas City Chiefs + 4.5 at 10/21 Denver Broncos – 4.5
As alluded to above, the Chiefs appear to have gotten their show back on the road after a rough start against red-hot teams. They take their act into Denver for the second act after losing in September to the Broncos at home. Andy Reid is a very good offensive coach and has gotten around losing Jamaal Charles for the season with West who is on pace for a 1,000 yards season (in 11 games) and Maclin is on pace to get there as well. The Bronco defence lost a lot when they lost Demarcus Ware and now sport four (4) linebackers out with injuries and then Talib pokes a guy in the eye and gets suspended. Kubiak and Phillips, last seen running out of Houston after a 2-14 season, run very simple schemes which are not hard to figure out. Add a declining Peyton Manning to the mix and the Broncos could lose more games than they win the rest of the way.
Selection: Kansas City + 4.5 (but not for much)
13/10 Arizona Cardinals +3.0 at 4/6 Seattle Seahawks – 3.0
Taking Arizona would entail betting that Carson Palmer can beat a good defence. Betting on Seattle would entail betting that Russell Wilson can run an offence. Unable to stomach either prospect we get to go to bed early Sunday Night.
Selection:
None
4/1 Houston Texans + 11.0 at 1/6 Cincinnati Bengals – 11.0
The Browns were in position to beat the Bengals going into the fourth quarter last week when the wheels fell off. Still, it was not a bad outing for Manziel. The Texans meanwhile are well coached, coming off their Bye Week and Brian Hoyer has been playing like a top 10 Quarterback. We know that because he is in the top 10. A win here puts Houston into a tie with Indianapolis for first place and is not as far-fetched as you might think, that is unless you believe that Andy Dalton can go undefeated. Please remember that every NFL roster is filled with very talented players and psychology plays a much bigger role than raw talent. The Bengals will lose (although not necessarily Monday night) and Houston is worth a flutter.
Selection: Houston Texans @ 4/1/Houston Texans + 11.0
Last Week
23/20 Buffalo Bills + 2.5 at 20 27 New York Jets -2.5
You better hurry if you want to get the extra half point as a lot of places have this game down to 2.0 points. More to come……….
Selection: Buffalo Bills +2.5
Watching the Dallas Cowboys lose an eminently winnable game on Sunday night served good purpose in illustrating why Dallas has failed to win a playoff game of any substance, as in when the good teams are playing, which is NOT during what is now known as “The Wildcard Round”, since the days of Troy Aikman. Last season, “The Wildcard Round” featured one team with a losing record playing against another team without a quarterback and the NFL owners, in their limited wisdom, want to add another team next season reducing the number of Playoff Byes to one per division. A change that would increase the number of top quality regular season would be easier to illustrate than explain.
Cowboy’s owner Jerrah Jones sets the bar significantly lower than the rest of the league when it comes to a player’s character and moral fibre. His classless move firing legends Tom Landry and Tex Schramm to mark the beginning of his tenure are still resented by former fans. They drove the franchise to deplorable depths to earn the draft picks that would eschew the Troy Aikman era which was short-lived (three (3) Super Bowls in four (4) years with the final one (1995) marking the last playoff game of any consequence Jones will ever win.
2015 sums up what Jones is all about as a football czar. After assembling what some call the best offensive line in football and leading the league in rushing last year, the Cowboys do not have an NFL caliber running back this year. Randle, who may end up in either jail or a mental institution was released last week. Watching McFadden S night it looked as if handing the ball off to an offensive lineman would have resulted in more yards after contact. If Jones was willing to sign his “leader” Greg Harvey to rush the passer, why not sign Ray Rice to run the ball? Wes Welker would make the team better.
Here is an example of how poor coaching coupled with sloppy play calling cost Dallas the game. Cassel lead the team down the field for a touchdown. It is likely that the play sequence was predetermined and practiced and was executed fairly crisply. The second drive, not so much. On first down, McFadden follows his blocking for a four yard gain. On second down, with the Cowboys in virtually the same set, the Eagles sell out against the run and McFadden disappears into a mass of linemen and gets a generous spot for a two yard game. On third and four, Dez Bryant is running a quick out. Cassel throws a perfect strike as the ball sails out of bounds almost hitting the front part of the first down marker bullseye, but Bryant was running a different route.
The Eagles sat on that route on third downs in the second half which Linehan should have noticed. Cassel looked it off several times however when the play call came in for Cassel to hit McFadden on it in the fourth quarter Hicks jumped the route and was off to the races. Cassel may very well have telegraphed the throw but McFadden is no wide receiver and could do nothing to break up the play. Now, with Lucky Whitehead’s subsequent 79 yard return on the ensuing kick-off, Cassel got the points from Hicks’s pick six by all that did was tie the game up. Dallas was almost in field goal range when the ill-fated play call came in and should have taken the lead on that drive. The Cowboy’s had plenty of chances to win this game long before it went to overtime and came down to a lost coin toss.
In other games last week, as we predicted, Carolina handed the Packers their second thumping in two weeks when they did in fact run the ball for 130 yards but Cam Newton’s 24 point second quarter ended up being the determining factor in the win. Newton only completed 15 balls (of 30) as he flung it all over the place, but he averaged almost 20 yards per completion. Watching Rodgers demolish his Windows Tablet on the sidelines in frustration during the fourth quarter was decidedly enjoyable. Jacksonville did cover the spread but they won’t be catching the Colts by losing these winnable games and in Minnesota, as feared, Jeff Fisher found a way to lose to the Vikings as Adrian Peterson showed Gurley who was the lead dog in overtime.
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