Thursday, September 28, 2017

The NFL in the Moment – Thursday - 11 am EDT – Week Four 2017

Happy Thursday everyone. Have you ever noticed how easy it is to spot the shortcomings of someone else, yet be unable to see your own? It is an ageless axiom, as in the story where יֵשׁוּעַ (Yeshua) in Matthew 7:5 says “You hypocrite, first take the log out of your own eye, and then you will see clearly to take the speck out of your brother’s eye” and all that? There you have the reason why the Washington Redskins Defence can shut down a “not as good as it looks” Raiders Offence.

Scot McCloughan, famous for acquiring late round gems on Defence like Richard Sherman (and a ton of others) took over in Washington in 2015 and the Redskins used his “list” for the 2015, 2016 and 2017 drafts. So McCloughan came in, kept what he liked, and drafted a bunch of players. This spring, Bruse Allen’s coup to unseat McCloughan succeeded (enough said) and Allen then kept what he liked of the original roster, kept the players he like that McCloughan brought in and brought in Free Agents to offset what he saw as McCloughan’s shortcomings.

The result is a dynamite Defence that has only lost to a very good Philadelphia squad, in this moment. How long it lasts is anyone’s guess. It is the result of conventional boom-and-bust roster building, and as such has the potential for large swings in its effectiveness if, when and as injuries occur. Sunday night’s game was a good indicator of where both teams truly are from a quality standpoint. Washington looks like a playoff team, but at this point they have a lot to overcome to get there. Their Week Seven return game in Philadelphia is a must-win, and the NFL’s Cowboys friendly bias is very real.

Dallas remains the most popular team in the NFL and the league believes that love them or hate them, people will watch. Well, we have. We watched the Cowboys beat Pittsburgh and Minnesota last season, and their Offensive Line got away with a lot of egregious holding. This season, the loss of Doug Free has really hurt. Arizona was about to go up 17-0 going into half-time until the officials started playing games. They were calling holding, but only against Arizona, and instead of playing with a big lead, it was 7-7 at the half. So overcoming the Cowboys bias could be a problem for Washington AND Philadelphia.

The Raiders on the other hand showed their true colors. To date, Derek Carr has not beaten a playoff team that wasn’t quarterbacked by Brock Osweiler. The Raiders took advantage of a soft schedule last season, when they recorded the lowest positive point differential (net points of +31) of any team in the history of the NFL that went 12-4 or better. This season, the schedule is much tougher and we fully expect the Raiders to go into their Bye Week below 0.500 and to lose more games than they win after their Bye Week. It is what it is.

It seems that we are the only people on the planet that were not surprised by the performances by Jacoby Brissett, Case Keenum and Josh McCown. The Bears Defence and the Bears running game also seem to have escaped general notice. Case Keenum is a good football player who has been on a bunch of bad teams. Josh McCown is a good football player who has been on a bunch of bad teams. McCown was better than Cutler was in Chicago, so we have no idea why McCown being better than Cutler is last week surprised anyone. Brissett, drafted higher than Prescott was by a significantly superior organization, now has some badly needed experience and is starting to turn into a competent NFL Quarterback.

Neither were we surprised at the outcome in Carolina, specifically the performance of Cam Newton. Newton will have pocketed over $89 million dollars of Jerry Richardson’s money by the end of this season and will carry a $35,166,666.66 Dead Cap charge into the 2018 season, so the Panthers are essentially stuck with him. Newton’s performance meanwhile is tracking Josh Freeman’s a lot closer than it is Tom Brady’s. When a player is more concerned about what he is going to wear for the cameras than how he is performing on the field, there is a serious lack of focus. He reminds us a great deal of Albert Haynesworth in his attitude.

Deshaun Watson was a mild surprise in New England. Initially, we expected him to be a complete disaster, but were forced to reconsider after he won his second start against the Bengals, who are not as bad as their 0-3 record suggests. If not for the bogus Pass Interference call on Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots would have gone into halftime up a couple of scores and blown the game wide open with a Touchdown to open the second half. More interceptions may have followed. Whatever the case, Watson is getting better with every start. We were wrong (not for the first time either) about Watson.

After watching Trevor Siemian underachieve in Buffalo, we may yet see the guy who lost his Clemson gig to Watson, Chad Kelly, come Week Eight. The Broncos already know that Paxton Lynch is not the answer, although they will probably give him a shot before getting around to Kelly. Indeed, the Broncos would probably need to be out of the playoff race to start Kelly this season. Siemian has now had 17 starts, so if he continues to make plays like the Interception he threw against the Bills, Elway’s patience will wear thin rather quickly. We expect Denver to beat the Raiders at home easily, so if they don’t, it will be interesting to see if Lynch gets the ball after the Broncos early Bye Week (Week Five).

The only performance that completely surprised us was Blake Bortles. The Ravens have a decent Defence but the wildly inconsistent Bortles put up the highest passer rating (128.2) of his career on Sunday. We already sang Doug Marrone’s praises after week one, but a bad Quarterback can kill any good team no matter how well coached they are. Ray Lewis, who travelled with the Ravens to London, said on Inside the NFL that the Ravens were not focussed on football. If that is the reason, will they be able to focus on Pittsburgh? A good game to avoid entirely.

We certainly don’t have a problem with Marrone’s fake punt call. In the first place, there is no way to recreate the conditions for that play in practice, and it could be needed down the road. It forces other teams to spend practice time going forward. Most importantly, it could come into consideration ae the end of the season. In such an even division, two or three teams could finish with identical Won/Lost, Divisional and Conference records, and in a three-way tie it could get to the seventh tiebreaker (best combined ranking among AFC teams in points scored and points allowed). The Patriots keep their foot on the gas for 60 minutes, and it seems to work out pretty well for them.



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