In-Depth Selections – Top 5 Games
Here are the five [5] best games to watch and wager on for 2017 Week Five
4/6 Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ 13/10 Chicago Bears (+3)
Many analysts select the Vikings under the assumption that Keenum will be under center. While they may be okay if Bradford steps in, we are not. Keenum developed a rapport all summer practising with Michael “Pink” Floyd and the “twos”, which could be the difference in what looks like a defensive struggle. Do not be fooled by the Bears-Packers result. Chicago’s OC Dowell Loggains panicked when the Bears were down 14-zip and tried to get Mike Glennon to do things beyond his skillset. The result was that the Packers scored 21 points as the direct result of turnovers, one of which was on replacement Center Cody Whitehair (normally a Guard filling in for Hroniss Grasu).
The Bears have a decent team, should be 2-0 at Soldier Field, and would be tied with Minnesota if not for very poor officiating and an untimely drop at the End Zone by Howard vs. Atlanta. Rookie QB Mitch Trubisky will be fine so long as he does not cause turnovers. This game will be much closer than the “experts” (MMQB’s Vrentas, Jones, King, Marston, Mravic & Brandt, SB Nation’s Van Bibber, NFL.com Dameshek and Jones-Drew) expect. We like Keenum at 4/6 but not (-3) over Trubisky, but Trubisky @ 13/10 and of course at (+3) over Bradford. If Bradford starts, watch the in-game odds and be ready to pounce if Bradford goes out and the Bears are up by seven [7] or less in the first half or by three [3] or less during the second half.
13/10 Green Bay Packers (+3) @ 4/6 Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Although we have warned repeatedly to NOT bet against Dallas (the Pro-Cowboy bias amongst Officials is very real), and we have already seen the Officials destroy the Packers on the road (in Atlanta), this game is so lop-sided in favor of the Packers that we cannot resist. The secret to stopping Elliott turned out to be pretty simple: Let the Dallas Offensive Linemen grab one person each then rush the four gaps and both corners while having the Free Safety account for Prescott to eliminate the possibility of a flea-flicker.
Meanwhile, the Packers are expecting both Offensive Tackles (Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari) and Nose Tackle Mike Daniels to return. Try to resist the compulsion to bet with both hands, but if you give in to it, you will most probably win. So take the 13/10 Packers (+3) and hope that the outcome of the game cannot be determined by the Officials. On the Alternate Spread market, Green Bay is 2/1 if you think it will be a blowout and are willing to take the Packers (-3.5).
6/4 Buffalo Bills (+3) @ 10/17 Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
The price and spread here tend to indicate either those bettors do not think of Atlanta as a very good team, or that Cincinnati in general and Andy Dalton specifically, are better than they have been. It is also possibly a bit of both. No matter. The fact remains that the only team Cincinnati has beaten this season is also the only team that has zero interest in winning any games, the Cleveland Browns. Until that changes, which we do not see happening here, one must bet against the Bengals. The Bills meanwhile are red-hot after beating Denver Week Three and in Atlanta last week.
Apart from a meaningless Week Seventeen win over Baltimore and both wins over the 1-15 Browns last season, the only games the Bengals won last season were their opener against the Jets, Dolphins, and Eagles. They beat NY (the Jets could not even get a Field Goal in seven [7] plays starting at the Bengal 11-yard-line and Fitzpatrick’s Passer Rating was in the 70’s), who only thought they had a QB, by a single [1] point. Cincinnati beat the Dolphins in the midst of their 1-4 start (the 1 being a win over, you guessed it, Cleveland), and the Eagles in what has been Carson Wentz’s worst start in the NFL when he tossed three [3] Interceptions.
Take the 6/4 Bills (+3) as a solid choice in this one. We would nevertheless suggest that you temper your enthusiasm when betting because it is Buffalo. Despite the high numbers Tyrod Taylor continues to put up (he is currently #9 in the ESPN Total QBR tables and rated #5 by PFF), he only throws for 185 YPG so their meaning is questionable. Just be smart.
10/11 New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns 10/11
The most relevant fact is that the Cleveland Browns are getting the first overall pick in the 2018 draft no matter what. The Browns could have won some games this season, perhaps as many as half, had they stuck with Kessler. Instead, the decided to go with Kizer and have thus far been red-shirting Garrett. Do not expect to see much of the first overall pick on the field today or any other day. We are guessing that Cleveland wants a Quarterback at the top of next year’s draft.
The 2-2 NY Jets are decidedly decent, as their trade for Jermaine Kearse has worked out splendidly. With last season’s WR1 Enunwa out, possibly permanently with neck issues, WR1-in-waiting Robbie Anderson has stepped up and Kearse provides underrated veteran Quarterback Josh McGown that all-important second option. The Jets got rid of problem child Sheldon Richardson in exchange for Seattle’s second-round pick in 2018, in addition to the little known (outside Seattle) but talented Kearse.
Don’t expect the Browns to win a game before every other team in the league has won at least twice to ensure that they get their man, so take the 10/11 Jets to win.
5/4 Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5) @ 20/29 New York Giants (-2.5)
Although both teams enter this game at 0-4, the Chargers should be 2-2 and re-signed their regular Kicker Nick Novak. The Giants, on the other hand, have yet to come to terms with the fact that Odell Beckham is like a cancer and that until they remove him they will stay sick. This game is not a coin-flip, so take the 5/4 Chargers (+2.5) and watch them win by a Nick Novak Field Goal.
Honorable Mention
7/5 Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ 5/8 Oakland Raiders (-3)
The Ravens Defence is better than the Raiders Defence. Jeremy Maclin is better than Amari Cooper. Joe Flacco is going to play better than EJ Manuel. The Ravens should win here.
20/21 Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams 20/23
The Rams are a good story, but Seattle is a proven good team. We can already hear disgruntled punters saying “What was I thinking…” Jared Goff is presently graded at #17 by PFF whereas the QB that beat Seattle last season in a Rams uniform (Keenum) is graded as #7, so forget the Goff angle.
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