The NFL in the Moment – Thursday – 5pm EDT – Week Five 2017

The NFL in the Moment – Thursday – 5pm EDT – Week Five 2017

Week Four came and went with some good profit opportunities. Five of our 11 selections won, with Buffalo leading the way at 3.25 to 1 and the Rams not far behind at 2.4 to 1. Both Houston and Philadelphia paid better than even money while the Broncos paid 2 to 3. 2.5 to 1 San Francisco and 2.5 to 1 Washington were unlucky not to win, and would have turned a good week into a monster one had they done so. We were 8-8 ATS, which is not our forte. On to the rest of Week Five (TNF game found below):

N/L Tennessee Titans   @   Miami Dolphins N/L

Unlike Keenum in Minnesota when Bradford went down, the Titans ARE giving Cassel all of the reps with the “ones”, which along with the signing of Brandon Weeden would tend to indicate Mariota will be out this weekend. I can no more explain why Dallas was unable to win with Cassel and Weeden in 2015 than I can how they went 13-3 with a rookie who has regressed all the way back to the College “Pistol” Offence.

Both Weeden and Cassel are top drawer Back-Up Quarterbacks. Weeden got a late start in the NFL as a 29-year-old rookie and ironically, when he matured to the point where he was able to stay within his limitations and competently manage a game in 2015, no teams have been interested since. While watching Delaney Walker duck instead of try to catch Cassel’s first interception was comical, it showed that without practice, any Back-Up Quarterback coming in off the bench is at extreme disadvantage.

Fortunately, for Tennessee, Jay Cutler has yet to find his stride in Miami. We think that if Cassel starts, the Dolphins will end up favored at home. We would take Tennessee in that situation as Cassel will know how to use Decker, and that would make all the difference.

20/23 New York Jets   @   Cleveland Browns 20/21

The Browns do not seem to be in any particular hurry to win a game, otherwise they would be starting Cody Kessler. The Jets are, and Josh McCown has just enough around him to beat the sub 0.500 teams in the league most days. Take the Jets at around Evens.

6/4 Los Angeles Chargers   @   New York Giants 10/17    

Odell Beckham attracts so much negativity to the Giants that they are impossible to bet on. The Chargers were unlucky to miss makeable winning kicks the first two weeks and played a very good Eagles team close, losing 26-24. We love the Chargers at 6/4 this week.

13/4 Jacksonville Jaguars   @   Pittsburgh Steelers 2/9

People are reading far too much into both the Jaguars loss to the Jets and the Steelers win over Baltimore. Jacksonville is a good opportunity at 13/4? The odds should be much tighter than they are.

5/2 Arizona Cardinals   @   Philadelphia Eagles 1/3

It is going to get increasingly more difficult to get a decent price on the Eagles as they continue to win, especially at home. It is hard to see Palmer being successful in Philadelphia against that Defence, even if Fletcher Cox sits another week. Philadelphia’s Offence is starting to gel as Wentz gets more and more comfortable with the offseason additions and the Eagles are learning how to get the most out of power back LeGarrette Blount. Put a half-stake on the Eagles at 1/3.

29/20 Buffalo Bills   @   Cincinnati Bengals 20/33   

The Bills are on a roll atop the AFC East and are a dropped Touchdown away from being 4-0 while the Bengals have lost every game except vs Cleveland, whom we suspect is trying to lose. Take the Bills at 29/20 to keep it going.

EVS San Francisco 49ers   @   Indianapolis Colts 5/6

The Colts total meltdown in Seattle could well be a harbinger of things to come until Andrew Luck returns, and even then their Defence was dreadful. San Francisco has a young, vibrant Defence, and Quarterback Brian Hoyer is capable of lifting his game enough to handle the Indianapolis Defence. Take the 49ers to break Kyle Shanahan's maiden at even money.

23/20 Carolina Panthers   @   Detroit Lions 20/27

The Panthers didn’t really beat the Patriots, Gilmore did. Same thing in Buffalo, when Zaye Jones beat the Bills with his drop. Detroit meanwhile beat a very good Vikings team in Minnesota at their own game, that is by playing good Defence, not turning the ball over and taking advantage of Minnesota’s turnovers, on which the Lions scored 11 of their 14 points on. Detroit is another team one play away from 4-0 after the bizarre ending in the Atlanta game. Detroit looks like a good bet at 20/27 at home here.

5/4 Baltimore Ravens   @   Oakland Raiders 20/29

The Ravens suffered a couple of bad losses after starting 2-0 then losing OL Yanda. Skura and Eluemunor have been pretty awful in Yanda’s place, making it much harder to both run and pass. The Raider's Defence is questionable and with Carr out and EJ Manuel in, the very good Ravens Defence should be able to keep the score down. Take the Ravens at 5/4, but maybe tread lightly?

10/11 Seattle Seahawks   @   Los Angeles Rams 10/11

Beating the Cowboys was one thing, but the Seahawk Defence is an entirely different animal. The Rams Defence is well stocked with talent, but not very well coached. The key will likely be how the Seahawks Offensive Line performs, which is anyone’s guess. A great game to skip.

23/20 Green Bay Packers   @   Dallas Cowboys 20/27

This looks too good to be true, so be wary. The Packers should demolish Dallas. It is hard to advise you to bet them when the safest thing to do is avoid Dallas entirely. Nevertheless, bet Green Bay at 23/20 with both hands.

5/6 Kansas City Chiefs   @   Houston Texans EVS

We heard Bill O’Brien was smiling on the sidelines on Sunday. Good for him! Rick Smith hasn’t exactly been sending him great Quarterbacks. We are hearing all the same things about DeShaun Watson the we heard about Rob Griffen save for one: Watson does not (yet, at least) have the towering ego. It typically takes the league about a year to figure out how to best thwart mobile Quarterbacks, but Watson is still too new to be dependable and the Chiefs have yet to lose this season. Our gut says Houston, but we are going to just watch this one.

N/L Minnesota Vikings   @   Chicago Bears N/L

We have been watching Minnesota mismanage their Quarterback situation forever, most recently since the erosion of Brett Favre’s skillset. Bradford is practising, and if he starts it is possible that the Vikings will be favored. In that case we would go with the Bears. Alternatively, the public could be enamored with Tribisky in the wake of Watson’s breakout down in Houston, in which case it is possible that the Bears would be favored at home over Keenum. In that case we would go with the Vikings. If the matchup is Bradford vs Tribisky and the Vikings are favored, we would have to pass.