Bye Week: Houston Texans, Detroit Lions
What a difference a week makes. After two week’s of crazy odds, (most other people called them crazy results) where we cleaned up at outstanding prices, it looks like the entire heavy favorite bettor brigade is broke and the opportunities to take advantage of the anomalies they created are long gone. Whatever the actual cause, the bottom line is that there are far fewer games that we like this weekend. It is important to resist the urge to reach in such situations.
20/33 Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ 7/5 Oakland Raiders (+3)
We have written reams below about how we believe that Derek Carr and the Oakland Raiders were extremely overrated and that we had them finishing at 5-11 in our most likely scenario. The problem is that in our evaluation, we had the Raiders winning one of the two Division games at home in Weeks Six and Seven and they lost to the Chargers Week Six. The acquisition of Navarro Bowman could have a bigger effect than many anticipate. Bowman has been outstanding against the run over his career, and if the Raiders can funnel Hunt to the middle of the field, they may have success slowing him down. He is too good to stop.
Kansas City remains the most overrated team in the NFL, but there is no longer very much conviction behind the support. This is evidenced by the odds. Just last week Kansas City was 10/23 to beat the 9/5 Pittsburgh Steelers at one point. If you factor in the difference between Pittsburgh and the Raiders and Home/Away, the equivalent odds for this week would be in the neighborhood of 10/33, so support for the Chiefs is definitely wavering. Given the state of Kansas City’s Offensive Line, Defence, and dependence upon trick plays, they are certainly a team that can be had. We just cannot justify betting the Raiders straight up at such a short price, so we bet a small Double onto a game we really do like, the London game.
6/4 Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) @ 5/9 Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) in London, UK
This is one of the few games we really like this weekend. Without getting into a million stats, there are reasons that the Rams are 4-2 this season that have nothing to do with Sean McVay or the erroneous perceived dramatic turnaround from Jared Goff. Goff posted a Passer Rating of under 50 against Seattle and was not much better in Jacksonville where he passed for a mere 124 yards. This is not the 2015 Ram’s Defence, and Wade Phillips is not a very good Defensive Coordinator. The Colts and Cowboys Defences are terrible. San Francisco was cheated out of the game-winning Field Goal by a bad call. The Rams are vastly overrated.
Arizona, on the other hand, looked like a team re-born last week. Adrian Peterson is a true difference maker, bringing 9 men into the box often and setting up excellent play-action opportunities. Much was made in the media about how Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to score some points in the second-half last week. In the first place, Fitzpatrick hasn’t made 116 NFL starts because he has no ability. When he is on, Fitzpatrick plays like a top-16 Quarterback. Jameis Winston is not even an NFL-caliber Quarterback. The problem with Fitzpatrick is that he is only on some of the time, and is prone to drastic swings evfen in the same game. As well, Tampa scored their final two TD’s when the game was essentially over and Arizona was trying to drain the clock. The Bucs has no real chance of winning. We bet Arizona straight up and took a double off of the Raiders.
8/5 New York Jets (+3) @ 5/9 Miami Dolphins (-3)
The Jets were victims of a couple of bad calls last week, both of which had a significant impact on the outcome of the game. They are a team without any glaring weaknesses, are well coached, and are playing good football. The Dolphins were our 6/1 Top Bet last week. We have the teams as roughly even, but figure Josh McCown will outplay Cutler as he did when they were both with Chicago. The Jets are our bet here.
11/5 Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) @ 5/13 Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
We are big supporters of Case Keenum, but this is a bad match-up for him. The way to beat the Ravens is to pound it out on the ground, which is Minnesota’s biggest weakness. McKinnon was able to run against the Bears, but only because Danny Trevathan was suspended. Baltimore is more than capable of winning on the road. This game could very well determine whether Minnesota makes the postseason (they have a very tough second half of the season during which Teddy Bridgewater will be losing games). We definitely don’t like the Viking at 5/13, but we can’t bet the Ravens either. Have to pass here.
2/5 Tennessee Titans (-5.5) @ 21/10 Cleveland Browns (+5.5)
Cleveland is not going to waste all the hard work they have gone through to lose every game so far, but the may be forced to play Kessler and win. Pass.
5/11 New Orleans Saints (-4) @ 9/5 Green Bay Packers (+4)
The Saints most probably win here with Rodgers gone for the season but are not an attractive proposition at 5/11. We have no idea if Hundley will be any good now that he will be properly prepared. Another pass.
5/9 Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) @ 8/5 Indianapolis Colts (+3)
The Colts Defence is absolutely dreadful. Jacksonville just lost at home to a very bad Rams team. Nothing to bet here.
10/17 Carolina Panthers (-3) @ 6/4 Chicago Bears (+3)
It is pretty funny when Goodell drones on about “the integrity of the NFL” – The NFL has no integrity, as evidenced by the favoritism the league has been showing Cam Newton. Last week we had to sweat out a very narrow victory by a far superior Eagles squad. The Bears should be able to run the ball down Carolina’s throat, but we are not going through that again. Pass.
6/4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ 10/17 Buffalo Bills (-3)
The problem with this game is the Quarterbacks. They both are not NFL caliber. Pass.
2/5 Seattle Seahawks (-3) @ 21/10 New York Giants (+3)
We very much want to take the Giants here, but Trevor Siemian is so anemic that we are not sure we can trust what we saw from them last week. Undecided on this one for now.
21/10 Cincinnati Bengals (+3) @ 2/5 Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
Pittsburgh has probably turned the corner on their season, but so it seems has Cincinnati. We are passing on this one as well.
EVS Denver Broncos @ 5/6 Los Angeles Chargers
We were expecting Denver to be favored here. The spread is Pick ’Em. We agree. There is little to choose between the two teams, although a point could be made about the Chargers momentum. Nevertheless, we pass.
8/5 Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ 5/9 New England Patriots (+3)
We are expecting the Patriots to burn away the last vestige of the betting public’s inaccurate assessment of Atlanta, and curiously New England’s price of 5/9 is the absolute lowest that we allow ourselves to wager on (1/2 or less is out-of-bounds for us). What we will probably do is bet any winnings we have from this week on New England because this is the late game, provided the odds do not deteriorate. We are betting a New England-Philadelphia Double to keep it interesting. WARNING: This is not sound wagering advice.
19/10 Washington Redskins (+4.5) @ 10/23 Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
We can almost bet Washington here. After playing four of their first six games on the road and going 5-1, the Eagles start a three-game homestand. Washington is most probably the toughest of the three visiting teams. A win here sets them up to go into their Bye Week at 8-1 (or 7-2 at the very least) with the NFC Top Seed firmly in their control. That is a lot of pressure for second-year Quarterback Carson Wentz. We are betting a New England-Philadelphia Double, but will otherwise leave the game alone.
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