Long Week - Very Tired
Top Five
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams
Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots
New England Patriots
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers
Showing posts with label NFL Money Line Week 7. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL Money Line Week 7. Show all posts
Sunday, October 22, 2017
Saturday, October 21, 2017
The NFL in the Moment – Saturday – 11am EDT – Week Seven 2017
It will be nice when the NFL
has more than one set of games in Europe so that they can add a Saturday
morning game. We do not bet NCAA Football because the necessary information
just does not exist yet. It was nice to have guessed correctly on the Raider’s
win, but seeing how it ended makes us wonder if the Officials had been mandated
to ensure that Oakland won the game. When one considers how little Rob Gronkowski
has to do to generate an Offensive Pass Interference call when it suits the
Officials: (Open Link in New Tab)
Now, juxtapose that with Amari
Cooper’s first Touchdown:
It is interesting to note that
in the first clip you can tell that Solomon Wilcots is not a Gronk fan, and he
says that Gronk initiates the contact during the third example, which clearly
he does not. Curiously, the word “initiate” is not once used in the entire
section on Pass Interference in the NFL. If you are interested, we added a page
that we copied directly from the 2017 NFL Rulebook (we even left the grammatical
errors in it) verbatim (upper right Pages Menu) so that you can read the actual
rules and judge for yourself.
Jonathan Jones of the New
England Patriots has looked pretty good at Cornerback for the most part since
Rowe and Gilmore went out, but Julio Jones and Sanu are on an entirely
different level than the Robbie Andersons of the NFL, not to take anything away
form the Jets good, young receiver mind. Fortunately (for the Patriots),
neither Jones nor Sanu will be at 100% for SNF, nevertheless they will still be
a handful. It’s too bad that RFA David Jones is still languishing on the
Practice Squad after being held up in Training Camp with nagging problems,
since at almost 6’4” with good speed Jones could compete with Jones on those
high throws.
This game could end up being a
very high scoring affair, but we can’t see the Falcons turning things around
enough to beat the Patriots. Philip Dorsett almost broke out last week, when
Brady underthrew him twice on deep balls, but will break through very soon. If
he does so this week, Brady will score even more frequently against the
not-so-good Atlanta Defence. Adding another burner in Dorsett to Cooks and
Gronkowski, with Amendola’s sure hands and James White’s versatility out of the
backfield, would allow Brady to take it to the next level. We have never seen
that level, which makes it so exciting.
The return of Adrian Peterson is
pretty exciting itself, forcing teams to defend Arizona entirely different and
taking a ton of pressure off Carson Palmer. Larry Fitzgerald benefits greatly
from the new arrangement, which has already inspired the Cardinals Offensive
Line to perform at a higher level. Much like the positive domino effect Bowman
had on the Raiders when he came aboard, the Peterson acquisition could have the
same effect on Arizona and elevate the play of the entire team.
Thursday, October 19, 2017
The NFL in the Moment – Thursday – 4pm EDT – Week Seven 2017
Bye Week: Houston Texans, Detroit Lions
What a difference a week makes. After two week’s of crazy odds, (most other people called them crazy results) where we cleaned up at outstanding prices, it looks like the entire heavy favorite bettor brigade is broke and the opportunities to take advantage of the anomalies they created are long gone. Whatever the actual cause, the bottom line is that there are far fewer games that we like this weekend. It is important to resist the urge to reach in such situations.
20/33 Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ 7/5 Oakland Raiders (+3)
We have written reams below about how we believe that Derek Carr and the Oakland Raiders were extremely overrated and that we had them finishing at 5-11 in our most likely scenario. The problem is that in our evaluation, we had the Raiders winning one of the two Division games at home in Weeks Six and Seven and they lost to the Chargers Week Six. The acquisition of Navarro Bowman could have a bigger effect than many anticipate. Bowman has been outstanding against the run over his career, and if the Raiders can funnel Hunt to the middle of the field, they may have success slowing him down. He is too good to stop.
Kansas City remains the most overrated team in the NFL, but there is no longer very much conviction behind the support. This is evidenced by the odds. Just last week Kansas City was 10/23 to beat the 9/5 Pittsburgh Steelers at one point. If you factor in the difference between Pittsburgh and the Raiders and Home/Away, the equivalent odds for this week would be in the neighborhood of 10/33, so support for the Chiefs is definitely wavering. Given the state of Kansas City’s Offensive Line, Defence, and dependence upon trick plays, they are certainly a team that can be had. We just cannot justify betting the Raiders straight up at such a short price, so we bet a small Double onto a game we really do like, the London game.
6/4 Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) @ 5/9 Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) in London, UK
This is one of the few games we really like this weekend. Without getting into a million stats, there are reasons that the Rams are 4-2 this season that have nothing to do with Sean McVay or the erroneous perceived dramatic turnaround from Jared Goff. Goff posted a Passer Rating of under 50 against Seattle and was not much better in Jacksonville where he passed for a mere 124 yards. This is not the 2015 Ram’s Defence, and Wade Phillips is not a very good Defensive Coordinator. The Colts and Cowboys Defences are terrible. San Francisco was cheated out of the game-winning Field Goal by a bad call. The Rams are vastly overrated.
Arizona, on the other hand, looked like a team re-born last week. Adrian Peterson is a true difference maker, bringing 9 men into the box often and setting up excellent play-action opportunities. Much was made in the media about how Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to score some points in the second-half last week. In the first place, Fitzpatrick hasn’t made 116 NFL starts because he has no ability. When he is on, Fitzpatrick plays like a top-16 Quarterback. Jameis Winston is not even an NFL-caliber Quarterback. The problem with Fitzpatrick is that he is only on some of the time, and is prone to drastic swings evfen in the same game. As well, Tampa scored their final two TD’s when the game was essentially over and Arizona was trying to drain the clock. The Bucs has no real chance of winning. We bet Arizona straight up and took a double off of the Raiders.
8/5 New York Jets (+3) @ 5/9 Miami Dolphins (-3)
The Jets were victims of a couple of bad calls last week, both of which had a significant impact on the outcome of the game. They are a team without any glaring weaknesses, are well coached, and are playing good football. The Dolphins were our 6/1 Top Bet last week. We have the teams as roughly even, but figure Josh McCown will outplay Cutler as he did when they were both with Chicago. The Jets are our bet here.
11/5 Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) @ 5/13 Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
We are big supporters of Case Keenum, but this is a bad match-up for him. The way to beat the Ravens is to pound it out on the ground, which is Minnesota’s biggest weakness. McKinnon was able to run against the Bears, but only because Danny Trevathan was suspended. Baltimore is more than capable of winning on the road. This game could very well determine whether Minnesota makes the postseason (they have a very tough second half of the season during which Teddy Bridgewater will be losing games). We definitely don’t like the Viking at 5/13, but we can’t bet the Ravens either. Have to pass here.
2/5 Tennessee Titans (-5.5) @ 21/10 Cleveland Browns (+5.5)
Cleveland is not going to waste all the hard work they have gone through to lose every game so far, but the may be forced to play Kessler and win. Pass.
5/11 New Orleans Saints (-4) @ 9/5 Green Bay Packers (+4)
The Saints most probably win here with Rodgers gone for the season but are not an attractive proposition at 5/11. We have no idea if Hundley will be any good now that he will be properly prepared. Another pass.
5/9 Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) @ 8/5 Indianapolis Colts (+3)
The Colts Defence is absolutely dreadful. Jacksonville just lost at home to a very bad Rams team. Nothing to bet here.
10/17 Carolina Panthers (-3) @ 6/4 Chicago Bears (+3)
It is pretty funny when Goodell drones on about “the integrity of the NFL” – The NFL has no integrity, as evidenced by the favoritism the league has been showing Cam Newton. Last week we had to sweat out a very narrow victory by a far superior Eagles squad. The Bears should be able to run the ball down Carolina’s throat, but we are not going through that again. Pass.
6/4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ 10/17 Buffalo Bills (-3)
The problem with this game is the Quarterbacks. They both are not NFL caliber. Pass.
2/5 Seattle Seahawks (-3) @ 21/10 New York Giants (+3)
We very much want to take the Giants here, but Trevor Siemian is so anemic that we are not sure we can trust what we saw from them last week. Undecided on this one for now.
21/10 Cincinnati Bengals (+3) @ 2/5 Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
Pittsburgh has probably turned the corner on their season, but so it seems has Cincinnati. We are passing on this one as well.
EVS Denver Broncos @ 5/6 Los Angeles Chargers
We were expecting Denver to be favored here. The spread is Pick ’Em. We agree. There is little to choose between the two teams, although a point could be made about the Chargers momentum. Nevertheless, we pass.
8/5 Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ 5/9 New England Patriots (+3)
We are expecting the Patriots to burn away the last vestige of the betting public’s inaccurate assessment of Atlanta, and curiously New England’s price of 5/9 is the absolute lowest that we allow ourselves to wager on (1/2 or less is out-of-bounds for us). What we will probably do is bet any winnings we have from this week on New England because this is the late game, provided the odds do not deteriorate. We are betting a New England-Philadelphia Double to keep it interesting. WARNING: This is not sound wagering advice.
19/10 Washington Redskins (+4.5) @ 10/23 Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
We can almost bet Washington here. After playing four of their first six games on the road and going 5-1, the Eagles start a three-game homestand. Washington is most probably the toughest of the three visiting teams. A win here sets them up to go into their Bye Week at 8-1 (or 7-2 at the very least) with the NFC Top Seed firmly in their control. That is a lot of pressure for second-year Quarterback Carson Wentz. We are betting a New England-Philadelphia Double, but will otherwise leave the game alone.
Wednesday, October 18, 2017
The NFL in the Moment – Wednesday – 11.45pm EDT – Week Seven 2017
Cam Newton is ranked as #23 by PFF. His Passer Rating is #22 in the league. In the New England game, a penalty on Gilmore that could not be verified on replay (you can’t tell if his hand comes up or Funchess just snaps his head back to draw the penalty, but you can see by the speed at which Gilmore’s hand was moving that the minimal force that it would have generated does not correspond to the actual head movement). The Panthers, exactly like four years ago, get another undeserved win over the Patriots.
The following week against Detroit, the Officials neglect to call Ineligible Receiver Downfield. Twice. The first one resulted in a Touchdown, which meant Detroit could not challenge (see pictures in older post), while the second one set up a Touchdown. Last week in Philadelphia, the Officials did everything that they possibly could to give the game to the Panthers, but Newton chokes so badly under pressure that he kept throwing interceptions. In something we have never, ever, seen in a real NFL game, the Eagles were penalized ten times for 126 yards, the Panthers once for one yard. Based on the way the game was played, the penalties should have been roughly even.
How can this be? More importantly, what does it mean to us as bettors? As we saw when Newton made his “apology” for some remarks to a reporter, the man has the IQ of a houseplant. He is not smart enough, and most certainly lacks the necessary mental toughness, to be an NFL caliber Quarterback. Last season, the only players he finished ahead of were Brock Osweiler and Ryan Fitzpatrick, as Jared Goff did not make the requisite starts to finish last. Quite simply, Newton is the NFL’s Great Black Hope as they try to attract Basketball fans to prop up sinking television ratings. The NFL’s propaganda machine, NFL.com, has no interest in the facts of the matter. They just issued their QB Index with Newton at #7.
The bottom line is that the fix is in. The Eagles win last week was the least enjoyable game I have ever watched my entire life, and remember that I won my bet at 7/5. I would love to take the 6/4 Bears at home this weekend, but I cannot trust the NFL. No one said turning a profit would be easy.
The NFL in the Moment – Wednesday – 2pm EDT – Week Seven 2017
This weekend, Minnesota and Philadelphia are 2/5 at home, but both Offensive Coordinators have been making mistakes that they have been getting away with. Case Keenum has been a veritable goldmine for us (2015 in Seattle @5/2, 2016 in LA vs Seattle @ 5/2, 2017 vs Green Bay and Tampa Bay), but Shurmur has gotten way too predictable. If you watch the tipped-ball interception Green Bay made closely:
You will notice that Packer MLB Martinez pays zero attention to McKinnon and Rudolph. Keenum is looking right at McKinnon, but Martinez is creeping back to jump the slant that he knows is coming. Keenum should have gone to Rudolph.
In Philadelphia, Frank Reich is taking way too many chances with Wentz. He has only had Blount, who is an outstanding blocker, on the field 31% of the time. Blount should be out there at least twice as frequently, which would ensure an 8-man box at least, and prevent the opposition from doubling more than one Wide Receiver. Wentz is still too excitable and has too many balls sailing high.
As it stands, Philadelphia is the most complete team in the NFC, and with the injury to Rodgers, Minnesota should be number two but they don’t have a Running Back the caliber of Blount. You can tell by the way that they refused to get Adrian Peterson back in the fold that they do not have the correct mindset for big-time success. Instead of rallying behind the adequate Keenum, who was wonderful in tandem with Todd Gurley in 2015, and getting the right Running Back, they keep trying to force Bradford in the lineup. Now, Teddy Bridgewater is returning to practice. The Vikings are 4-2 and just caught the break of a lifetime with Rodgers going down for the season. McCarthy is nowhere near a good enough Head Coach to do what Belichick and McDaniels did with Garoppolo.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)