NFL Week Nine 2015
The Green Bay Packers (we don’t ALWAYS lead with the Patriots) went 12-4 last year, were the best team in the NFC and only monumentally poor coaching prevented them from playing the Patriots in a neutral site rematch in Arizona for the Super Bowl. The 2013 version went 8-7-1 however that record is not an accurate reflection of the quality of that team as its maestro, Aaron Rodgers, was injured and missed six (6) starts during which Seneca Wallace and then Scott Tolzien combined to post an 0-2-1 record until Matt Flynn, tennis elbow and all, came to the rescue to go 2-2 until Rodgers was well enough to return for the final game of the season however in fairness to Flynn, he did have the Packers on the Steelers one-yard line with 22 seconds left when Right Tackle Don Barclay drew a false start penalty preventing Flynn from going 3-1. Had Flynn not over stressed the tendons of his elbow in the Seahawks 2012 camp he probably would have been the franchise Quarterback Pete Carroll and Paul Allan wished they had instead of the little fellow they are paying like one.
The point of all this is that it is incredibly unusual for a team to finish at better than 12-4 in a season. Out of the 320 chances over the last ten years, 43 teams have finished 12-4 or better and if you remove the outlier (the Patriots) the number drops to 33 out of 320 or pretty much 1%. Green Bay has a pretty good team this year which may go 12-4 or better again this year however the Packers were not that great against the run last year and moving Clay Matthews, while a very good player, to inside linebacker has not suddenly made the Packers running defense into an asset. People can throw around all the stats they want. A good example is Adrian Peterson: All Day has averaged over 5.0 yards per carry and over 100 yards a game against Green Bay which may lead you to postulate that Minnesota has done pretty well against the Packers. They haven’t and are in fact 4-9-1 against Green Bay over the 14 regular season contests during which they have met. In the lone playoff match Peterson rushed for 99 yards averaging 4.5 yards per carry and the Vikings lost that one as well.
Forget about the bobbleheads looking forward to a 16-0 Patriots squad taking on a 16-0 or 15-1 NFC opponent. It is not going to happen. It would be extremely surprising if New England finished any better than 14-2 with 12-4 far more likely and 10-6 or worse is a distinct possibility. Football is a very violent game during which shit happens. It just does. You get a 250lb running back going at 20 mph into a 280 lb defensive lineman or a 260 lb linebacker going 15 mph in the other direction and baby you can guess the rest. Another factor to consider is the way that teams win and lose. The pattern will vary from team to team due to coaches, the variety of the bloodstock in any particular set of drafts and where teams are positioned in relation to those drafts however there is one predominant pattern: Teams tend to win and lose in bunches. Whether it is due to injuries, rosters or simply weather teams generally follow a pattern.
4/6 Green Bay Packers -3.0 @ 13/10 Carolina Panthers +3.0
Last Season Green Bay lost to Seattle and Buffalo, two of the better defenses last season, but they also lost to Detroit and New Orleans, much better known for their gunslinger Quarterbacks. This season Green Bay just suffered their first loss to Denver, a team with what looks like a pretty good defence however Green Bay was the first quality team they have met. Green Bay rolls into Carolina this week to take on another, as yet, unbeaten team in the 7-0 Panthers who are again light on the competition end and Bay is again favored by three (3) points on the road, same as last week. We are well aware of Newton’s passer rating, TD/Int ratio and all that nevertheless we are going with Carolina because we expect them to be able to run the ball all day long although we want the points just to be a little more comfortable.
Selection: Carolina + 3.0
4/6 Philadelphia Eagles + 3.0 @ 13/10 Dallas Cowboys +3.0
The Eagles have been playing pretty good defence this season however most of it has been wasted on the Sam Bradford tour of the union. Where we all got the idea that Bradford was any good as a pro is anyone’s guess when really his passer rating and 3-4 record are actually a little better than his lifetime numbers in the NFL. The Dallas defence was very impressive last week, although with the state of Seattle’s offensive line they could have looked a little better than they are, however Philadelphia comes to town with a line that is just as suspect. Goodness only knows what kind of game Linehan is going to call this week as his game plan for Atlanta that he used with Weeden would have worked wonders against Seattle for Cassel last week. We are expecting Dez Bryant to catch five or six balls for 70 yards or so and Witten to carry the load in the passing game while the Cowboys enjoy pretty good success running the ball and their defence really puts the clamps on Bradford.
Selection: Dallas Cowboys @ 13/10/Dallas Cowboys +3.0
6/5 St. Louis Rams + 2.5 @ 5/7 Minnesota Vikings – 2.5
If Mike Zimmer was coaching St. Louis and Jeff Fisher was coaching the Vikings we would be all over the Rams in this one. Zimmer should get a medal for getting this Minnesota offence to 5-2 with Teddy Wobblyballs as his Quarterback. Nick Foles may have his limitations however he stands head-and-shoulders above Bridgewater. The Rams have such an excess of defensive talent thanks to the Booby Griffin the tird trade, to which when you add Todd Gurley it almost doesn’t seem fair. Go with St. Louis by all means but take it very easy as Jeff Fisher has never met a situation that he could not screw up.
Selection: St. Louis Rams + 2.5
31/10 Jacksonville Jaguars + 7.5 at 1/3 New York Jets – 7.5
Jacksonville has burned a lot of money on the Money Line however they are 3-4 vs the spread and are a tasty 7.5 point underdog this week when they go to play on top of Jimmy Hoffa in New Jersey to take on either Ryan Fitzpatrick in-a-glove or everybody’s favorite headcase Geno Smith and the Jets. Bortles will be tested by Revis to be sure but at least he won’t be throwing to guys tossed over the side by the Raiders (perhaps the Jets picked up Thompkins off the side of the road after getting spanked by Oakland last week). Cromartie looked pathetic last week and may look the same this week with Robison and Hurns forming their own dynamic duo to compliment Julius Thomas at tight end. We expect to see more of Yeldon and less of Gerhart.
Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars + 7.5
2/7 Atlanta Falcons – 7 at 11/4 San Francisco 49ers + 7
The Falcons have had the knack of running into foes at the best possible time (for Atlanta) and that trend continues here as they take on the 49ers just as they are going from bad to worse. As poorly as narcissist stereotype Kaepernick has played this season, and particularly of late, it is incredibly unlikely that Blaine Gabbert, 5-24 lifetime, is going to represent any kind of improvement. Adding insult to injury (literally, the ‘Niners are riddled with injuries), San Fran are 7 point underdogs at home. When it gets bad, and it will get bad, look for the man who kisses himself on national television to come in off the bench and make it even worse. This is not a game you would want to pay to see, we don’t care how nice the spanking brand new stadium is,
Selection: Atlanta Falcons – 7
19/10 Oakland Raiders + 4.0 at 10/23 Pittsburgh Steelers – 4.0
The outcome of this game comes down to Ben Roethlisberger’s ability to play. The Steelers are getting great linebacker play. DeAngelo Williams may not be Levion Bell nevertheless he gives the Steelers a decent run game and with the wealth of talent catching the ball Roethlisberger needs to be marginally improved to win this one. If he isn’t, the Raiders will kill the Steelers with their passing game featuring Amari Cooper and company. Pittsburgh needs to win this one (see Dameshek on NFL.com) which is exactly the type of game in which Roethlisberger excels (if he is up to the task). The best strategy here may be to hope for a tie at half-time, gauge Ben’s play, and make and in-play wager at around even money 1/1. This game could be the jumping off place from where the Raiders leap into the playoffs as they don’t meet another particularly challenging opponent until December when they could be a lofty 8-3.
Selection: None
8/1 Washington Redskins + 14 @ 1/14 New England Patriots – 14
The Patriots offence has been a juggernaut all season as Caption “You Like That” Kirk Cousins leads the Washington Reskins into Foxborough after leading a furious comeback last out vs. Tampa. Buc’s coach Lovie Smith has been taking enough heat for not turning the defensive play-calling back over to Leslie Frazier however anyone who remembers the Christian Ponder experiment in Minnesota understands completely why Smith will never put Frazier back “In Charge” of anything. Turnovers will be the key here as Washington turned the ball over in some games more than New England has (3) all season. Cousins has come a long way for a Quarterback with less starts than Carr or Bortles and if he (Cousins) can refrain from tuning the ball over Washington can cover easily. Look for the Patriots to try to eliminate DeSean Jackson in his return. The size of the spread combined with the officials’ penchant for calling pass interference in garbage time results in taking New England – 14.0 a dubious prospect however once the game gets out of hand, look out! Cousins has never faced a Belichick defence nor has he gone two (2) straight games without throwing a couple of INT’s. One might be better served on the Alternate Spread market where New England – 18.5 pays a healthy 6-4 or, if they really think it will be a rout, New England – 20 at a robust 7/4.
Selection: None
3/1 Tennessee Titans + 7.5 at 1/9 New Orleans Saints - 7.5
Bruce Arians had an entire season to correct Wisenhunt’s mistakes and install Arizona’s very effective coaching staff (we cannot overstate the importance of good coaching). It doesn’t help that the Titans swung and missed on Marcus Marryoughta and Mike Mularkey, Tennessee’s interim coach, being a Wisenhunt crony, is extremely unlikely to fare any better. What the Titans should do is trade for Thad Lewis or Case Keenum or someone like that and let them take the hits until the Titans are able to bring in an excellent Offensive Line Coach who can assess the current roster of talent in that area and make the necessary changes needed to get the unit functioning at an acceptable degree of functionality. The Titans should be able to get a pretty high pick for Mariota on top of the extremely high pick they get next year, perhaps first overall which they then should be able to use to address the teams most glaring deficiencies. It is extremely hard to envision the current crew under Mularkey winning any games and at 1/9 the Saints are unplayable. New Orleans – 7.5 is probably the way to go here but it is too risky for us.
Selection: None
7/5 Miami Dolphins + 3.0 at 5/8 Buffalo Bills -3.0
Dan Campbell and Company roll into Orchard Park this afternoon to take on Yogi Bear’s Buffalo Bills at the Ralph in Orchard Park where Car Part is expected to get the start for the Bills and Ryan Tannehill looks to win his first road game against Buffalo. After a two game losing streak courtesy of EJ Manuel, King Rex is hoping Tyrod can steer the Bills (Get it – Tyrod – Steer?) in the other direction. The NFL really had to ought of get at least into the 20th century and use MLB’s determination of who the winning pitcher is as Matt Cassel, now in Dallas and hopefully actually ready to play some football should Scott Linehan do a decent job of situational play calling against the Eagles, got credit for the “W” in the first game as he started under center for a faked Wildcat play for the first offensive snap of the game despite riding the bench for the other 56 offensive snaps. We mention this because the Bills would have won at least one of the games Manuel lost with a Cassel fully knowing the playbook instead of trading him for essentially nothing. Miami will feel the loss of Cameron Wake (and all his sacks) a lot more in games against normal pocket Quarterbacks plus the Bills remain weak at Right Tackle so back-ups backups Derrick Shelby and Terrence Fede won’t be tested as severely as they otherwise might have been. The Dolphins appear to be the way to go here but it is too much of a gamble.
Selection: None
10/13 New York Giants – 1.5 at 11/10 Tampa Bay Bucs + 1.5
Giants fans hoping that the activation of JPP is going to somehow reignite their defence are in for a major disappointment as the phantom pain alone from full-on contact may very well render him relatively useless not to mention the difficulty he will have shedding blocks with his partial right hand. Tampa has a better defence than New Orleans (the entire league has a better defence than New Orleans) and both coaches have problems with clock management resulting in the odds for this game being pretty close. Lovey Smith has been quietly putting together a team that would move to 0.500 with a win here and with the Giant’s already questionable secondary down a starter (the Prince), Winston may go another game without an INT. If you must, bet Tampa, but try to avoid this game.
Selection: None
1/2 Denver Broncos – 4.0 at 17/10 Indianapolis Colts + 4.0
The Colts showed signs of life last week after throwing Offensive Coordinator Pep Hamilton over the side, a typical move for the league’s most dysfunctional franchises (when the owner in an oxycontin junkie, you get dysfunction we are told) however Denver (with the unholy triumvirate of Elway, Kubiak and Philips at the helm) is just as bad, they just happen to be on a roll so it isn’t showing. When things go bad in Denver, they will go really bad. Who knows if this is the week it turns around?
Selection: None
9/5 Chicago Bears +4.0 at 5/11 San Diego Chargers – 4.0
The Chargers are a very streaky team and when the end their current losing skid they could run the table. Does it start here? Who knows? John Fox is supposed to have the Bears playing more sound football these days including Jay Cutler but their 2-5 record is not reflecting it. This game should be avoided if at all possible..
Selection: None
***Update: At half-time in Cincinnati, Manziel doesn’t look out of place at all, leading the Brown in a beautiful 4-minute drill TD drive to close out the first half CIN 14-CLE 10. Kind of makes you wonder why we haven’t seen Johnny Football before now.
No need for starts here. The wheels completely fell off of the Browns after half-time. Someone needs to get Tramon Williams’s agent arrested for fleecing the Browns’ brass out of the 10 million smackers he got guaranteed this past offseason. Old Tramon, and he is old that is for certain, was giving Green, Jones and Sanu free releases past the first down marker all night long. He did manage to chase down a couple of plays in the second half, running down Jones and Tyler Eifert, but he didn’t even come close to defending a pass. It was also easy to see why the Browns were so willing to trade LT Joe Thomas and why no team was willing to meet their demands. Thomas too looked old and slow, especially in the second half when the Bengals were able to sack Manziel rushing only three. This game was 17-10 going into the fourth quarter with the Bengals on their side of the field. And then…
4/1 Cleveland Browns + 11.0 @ 1/6 Cincinnati Bengals -11.0
We keep hearing about how Andy Dalton is making this big second year leap in his fifth season but you would never know it watching the Bengals play the Steelers last week. Ben Roethlisberger, gimpy going into the game with his MCL/ACL sprain still far from healed, was practically crippled by the end of it and yet managed to limp all the way down to the Bengals 16 yard line when he sailed a pass just out of the end zone that Antonio Brown caught which, had it been two yards shorter, would have given Cincinnati their first loss of the season which, they seemed to be just begging for. Cleveland meanwhile looked to all the world a winner over Arizona last week at half-time after which the Browns failed to score another point with a visibly injured Josh McCown under center. Johnny Football makes his 2015 starting debut in a game that last year the Browns dominated as Dalton put up a passer rating of 2 (yes, two, as in 2 out of 100 two). Our biggest concern is whether Manziel is actually sober given last week’s news of whatever that was with his girlfriend. Take the points (all 11 of them) and take the Browns! (Just not for too much).
Selection: Cleveland Browns + 11.0
