The NFL in this Moment - Week Nine 2015

NFL Week Nine 2015

The Green Bay Packers (we don’t ALWAYS lead with the Patriots) went 12-4 last year, were the best team in the NFC and only monumentally poor coaching prevented them from playing the Patriots in a neutral site rematch in Arizona for the Super Bowl. The 2013 version went 8-7-1 however that record is not an accurate reflection of the quality of that team as its maestro, Aaron Rodgers, was injured and missed six (6) starts during which Seneca Wallace and then Scott Tolzien combined to post an 0-2-1 record until Matt Flynn, tennis elbow and all, came to the rescue to go 2-2 until Rodgers was well enough to return for the final game of the season however in fairness to Flynn, he did have the Packers on the Steelers one-yard line with 22 seconds left when Right Tackle Don Barclay drew a false start penalty preventing Flynn from going 3-1. Had Flynn not over stressed the tendons of his elbow in the Seahawks 2012 camp he probably would have been the franchise Quarterback Pete Carroll and Paul Allan wished they had instead of the little fellow they are paying like one.

The point of all this is that it is incredibly unusual for a team to finish at better than 12-4 in a season. Out of the 320 chances over the last ten years, 43 teams have finished 12-4 or better and if you remove the outlier (the Patriots) the number drops to 33 out of 320 or pretty much 1%. Green Bay has a pretty good team this year which may go 12-4 or better again this year however the Packers were not that great against the run last year and moving Clay Matthews, while a very good player, to inside linebacker has not suddenly made the Packers running defense into an asset. People can throw around all the stats they want. A good example is Adrian Peterson: All Day has averaged over 5.0 yards per carry and over 100 yards a game against Green Bay which may lead you to postulate that Minnesota has done pretty well against the Packers. They haven’t and are in fact 4-9-1 against Green Bay over the 14 regular season contests during which they have met. In the lone playoff match Peterson rushed for 99 yards averaging 4.5 yards per carry and the Vikings lost that one as well.

Forget about the bobbleheads looking forward to a 16-0 Patriots squad taking on a 16-0 or 15-1 NFC opponent. It is not going to happen. It would be extremely surprising if New England finished any better than 14-2 with 12-4 far more likely and 10-6 or worse is a distinct possibility. Football is a very violent game during which shit happens. It just does. You get a 250lb running back going at 20 mph into a 280 lb defensive lineman or a 260 lb linebacker going 15 mph in the other direction and baby you can guess the rest. Another factor to consider is the way that teams win and lose. The pattern will vary from team to team due to coaches, the variety of the bloodstock in any particular set of drafts and where teams are positioned in relation to those drafts however there is one predominant pattern: Teams tend to win and lose in bunches. Whether it is due to injuries, rosters or simply weather teams generally follow a pattern.

4/6 Green Bay Packers -3.0 @ 13/10 Carolina Panthers +3.0

Last Season Green Bay lost to Seattle and Buffalo, two of the better defenses last season, but they also lost to Detroit and New Orleans, much better known for their gunslinger Quarterbacks. This season Green Bay just suffered their first loss to Denver, a team with what looks like a pretty good defence however Green Bay was the first quality team they have met. Green Bay rolls into Carolina this week to take on another, as yet, unbeaten team in the 7-0 Panthers who are again light on the competition end and Bay is again favored by three (3) points on the road, same as last week. We are well aware of Newton’s passer rating, TD/Int ratio and all that nevertheless we are going with Carolina because we expect them to be able to run the ball all day long although we want the points just to be a little more comfortable.

Selection: Carolina + 3.0

4/6 Philadelphia Eagles + 3.0 @ 13/10 Dallas Cowboys +3.0

The Eagles have been playing pretty good defence this season however most of it has been wasted on the Sam Bradford tour of the union. Where we all got the idea that Bradford was any good as a pro is anyone’s guess when really his passer rating and 3-4 record are actually a little better than his lifetime numbers in the NFL. The Dallas defence was very impressive last week, although with the state of Seattle’s offensive line they could have looked a little better than they are, however Philadelphia comes to town with a line that is just as suspect. Goodness only knows what kind of game Linehan is going to call this week as his game plan for Atlanta that he used with Weeden would have worked wonders against Seattle for Cassel last week. We are expecting Dez Bryant to catch five or six balls for 70 yards or so and Witten to carry the load in the passing game while the Cowboys enjoy pretty good success running the ball and their defence really puts the clamps on Bradford.

Selection: Dallas Cowboys @ 13/10/Dallas Cowboys +3.0

6/5 St. Louis Rams + 2.5 @ 5/7 Minnesota Vikings – 2.5

If Mike Zimmer was coaching St. Louis and Jeff Fisher was coaching the Vikings we would be all over the Rams in this one. Zimmer should get a medal for getting this Minnesota offence to 5-2 with Teddy Wobblyballs as his Quarterback. Nick Foles may have his limitations however he stands head-and-shoulders above Bridgewater. The Rams have such an excess of defensive talent thanks to the Booby Griffin the tird trade, to which when you add Todd Gurley it almost doesn’t seem fair. Go with St. Louis by all means but take it very easy as Jeff Fisher has never met a situation that he could not screw up.

Selection: St. Louis Rams + 2.5

31/10 Jacksonville Jaguars + 7.5 at 1/3 New York Jets – 7.5

Jacksonville has burned a lot of money on the Money Line however they are 3-4 vs the spread and are a tasty 7.5 point underdog this week when they go to play on top of Jimmy Hoffa in New Jersey to take on either Ryan Fitzpatrick in-a-glove or everybody’s favorite headcase Geno Smith and the Jets. Bortles will be tested by Revis to be sure but at least he won’t be throwing to guys tossed over the side by the Raiders (perhaps the Jets picked up Thompkins off the side of the road after getting spanked by Oakland last week). Cromartie looked pathetic last week and may look the same this week with Robison and Hurns forming their own dynamic duo to compliment Julius Thomas at tight end. We expect to see more of Yeldon and less of Gerhart.

Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars + 7.5

2/7 Atlanta Falcons – 7 at 11/4 San Francisco 49ers + 7

The Falcons have had the knack of running into foes at the best possible time (for Atlanta) and that trend continues here as they take on the 49ers just as they are going from bad to worse. As poorly as narcissist stereotype Kaepernick has played this season, and particularly of late, it is incredibly unlikely that Blaine Gabbert, 5-24 lifetime, is going to represent any kind of improvement. Adding insult to injury (literally, the ‘Niners are riddled with injuries), San Fran are 7 point underdogs at home. When it gets bad, and it will get bad, look for the man who kisses himself on national television to come in off the bench and make it even worse. This is not a game you would want to pay to see, we don’t care how nice the spanking brand new stadium is,

Selection: Atlanta Falcons – 7

19/10 Oakland Raiders + 4.0 at 10/23 Pittsburgh Steelers – 4.0

The outcome of this game comes down to Ben Roethlisberger’s ability to play. The Steelers are getting great linebacker play. DeAngelo Williams may not be Levion Bell nevertheless he gives the Steelers a decent run game and with the wealth of talent catching the ball Roethlisberger needs to be marginally improved to win this one. If he isn’t, the Raiders will kill the Steelers with their passing game featuring Amari Cooper and company. Pittsburgh needs to win this one (see Dameshek on NFL.com) which is exactly the type of game in which Roethlisberger excels (if he is up to the task). The best strategy here may be to hope for a tie at half-time, gauge Ben’s play, and make and in-play wager at around even money 1/1. This game could be the jumping off place from where the Raiders leap into the playoffs as they don’t meet another particularly challenging opponent until December when they could be a lofty 8-3.

Selection: None

8/1 Washington Redskins + 14 @ 1/14 New England Patriots – 14

The Patriots offence has been a juggernaut all season as Caption “You Like That” Kirk Cousins leads the Washington Reskins into Foxborough after leading a furious comeback last out vs. Tampa. Buc’s coach Lovie Smith has been taking enough heat for not turning the defensive play-calling back over to Leslie Frazier however anyone who remembers the Christian Ponder experiment in Minnesota understands completely why Smith will never put Frazier back “In Charge” of anything. Turnovers will be the key here as Washington turned the ball over in some games more than New England has (3) all season. Cousins has come a long way for a Quarterback with less starts than Carr or Bortles and if he (Cousins) can refrain from tuning the ball over Washington can cover easily. Look for the Patriots to try to eliminate DeSean Jackson in his return. The size of the spread combined with the officials’ penchant for calling pass interference in garbage time results in taking New England – 14.0 a dubious prospect however once the game gets out of hand, look out! Cousins has never faced a Belichick defence nor has he gone two (2) straight games without throwing a couple of INT’s. One might be better served on the Alternate Spread market where New England – 18.5 pays a healthy 6-4 or, if they really think it will be a rout, New England – 20 at a robust 7/4.

Selection: None

3/1 Tennessee Titans + 7.5 at 1/9 New Orleans Saints - 7.5

Bruce Arians had an entire season to correct Wisenhunt’s mistakes and install Arizona’s very effective coaching staff (we cannot overstate the importance of good coaching). It doesn’t help that the Titans swung and missed on Marcus Marryoughta and Mike Mularkey, Tennessee’s interim coach, being a Wisenhunt crony, is extremely unlikely to fare any better. What the Titans should do is trade for Thad Lewis or Case Keenum or someone like that and let them take the hits until the Titans are able to bring in an excellent Offensive Line Coach who can assess the current roster of talent in that area and make the necessary changes needed to get the unit functioning at an acceptable degree of functionality. The Titans should be able to get a pretty high pick for Mariota on top of the extremely high pick they get next year, perhaps first overall which they then should be able to use to address the teams most glaring deficiencies. It is extremely hard to envision the current crew under Mularkey winning any games and at 1/9 the Saints are unplayable. New Orleans – 7.5 is probably the way to go here but it is too risky for us.

Selection: None

7/5 Miami Dolphins + 3.0 at 5/8 Buffalo Bills -3.0

Dan Campbell and Company roll into Orchard Park this afternoon to take on Yogi Bear’s Buffalo Bills at the Ralph in Orchard Park where Car Part is expected to get the start for the Bills and Ryan Tannehill looks to win his first road game against Buffalo. After a two game losing streak courtesy of EJ Manuel, King Rex is hoping Tyrod can steer the Bills (Get it – Tyrod – Steer?) in the other direction. The NFL really had to ought of get at least into the 20^th century and use MLB’s determination of who the winning pitcher is as Matt Cassel, now in Dallas and hopefully actually ready to play some football should Scott Linehan do a decent job of situational play calling against the Eagles, got credit for the “W” in the first game as he started under center for a faked Wildcat play for the first offensive snap of the game despite riding the bench for the other 56 offensive snaps. We mention this because the Bills would have won at least one of the games Manuel lost with a Cassel fully knowing the playbook instead of trading him for essentially nothing. Miami will feel the loss of Cameron Wake (and all his sacks) a lot more in games against normal pocket Quarterbacks plus the Bills remain weak at Right Tackle so back-ups backups Derrick Shelby and Terrence Fede won’t be tested as severely as they otherwise might have been. The Dolphins appear to be the way to go here but it is too much of a gamble.

Selection: None

10/13 New York Giants – 1.5 at 11/10 Tampa Bay Bucs + 1.5

Giants fans hoping that the activation of JPP is going to somehow reignite their defence are in for a major disappointment as the phantom pain alone from full-on contact may very well render him relatively useless not to mention the difficulty he will have shedding blocks with his partial right hand. Tampa has a better defence than New Orleans (the entire league has a better defence than New Orleans) and both coaches have problems with clock management resulting in the odds for this game being pretty close. Lovey Smith has been quietly putting together a team that would move to 0.500 with a win here and with the Giant’s already questionable secondary down a starter (the Prince), Winston may go another game without an INT. If you must, bet Tampa, but try to avoid this game.

Selection: None

1/2 Denver Broncos – 4.0 at 17/10 Indianapolis Colts + 4.0

The Colts showed signs of life last week after throwing Offensive Coordinator Pep Hamilton over the side, a typical move for the league’s most dysfunctional franchises (when the owner in an oxycontin junkie, you get dysfunction we are told) however Denver (with the unholy triumvirate of Elway, Kubiak and Philips at the helm) is just as bad, they just happen to be on a roll so it isn’t showing. When things go bad in Denver, they will go really bad. Who knows if this is the week it turns around?

Selection: None

9/5 Chicago Bears +4.0 at 5/11 San Diego Chargers – 4.0

The Chargers are a very streaky team and when the end their current losing skid they could run the table. Does it start here? Who knows? John Fox is supposed to have the Bears playing more sound football these days including Jay Cutler but their 2-5 record is not reflecting it. This game should be avoided if at all possible..

Selection: None

***Update: At half-time in Cincinnati, Manziel doesn’t look out of place at all, leading the Brown in a beautiful 4-minute drill TD drive to close out the first half CIN 14-CLE 10. Kind of makes you wonder why we haven’t seen Johnny Football before now.

No need for starts here. The wheels completely fell off of the Browns after half-time. Someone needs to get Tramon Williams’s agent arrested for fleecing the Browns’ brass out of the 10 million smackers he got guaranteed this past offseason. Old Tramon, and he is old that is for certain, was giving Green, Jones and Sanu free releases past the first down marker all night long. He did manage to chase down a couple of plays in the second half, running down Jones and Tyler Eifert, but he didn’t even come close to defending a pass. It was also easy to see why the Browns were so willing to trade LT Joe Thomas and why no team was willing to meet their demands. Thomas too looked old and slow, especially in the second half when the Bengals were able to sack Manziel rushing only three. This game was 17-10 going into the fourth quarter with the Bengals on their side of the field. And then…

4/1 Cleveland Browns + 11.0 @ 1/6 Cincinnati Bengals -11.0

We keep hearing about how Andy Dalton is making this big second year leap in his fifth season but you would never know it watching the Bengals play the Steelers last week. Ben Roethlisberger, gimpy going into the game with his MCL/ACL sprain still far from healed, was practically crippled by the end of it and yet managed to limp all the way down to the Bengals 16 yard line when he sailed a pass just out of the end zone that Antonio Brown caught which, had it been two yards shorter, would have given Cincinnati their first loss of the season which, they seemed to be just begging for. Cleveland meanwhile looked to all the world a winner over Arizona last week at half-time after which the Browns failed to score another point with a visibly injured Josh McCown under center. Johnny Football makes his 2015 starting debut in a game that last year the Browns dominated as Dalton put up a passer rating of 2 (yes, two, as in 2 out of 100 two). Our biggest concern is whether Manziel is actually sober given last week’s news of whatever that was with his girlfriend. Take the points (all 11 of them) and take the Browns! (Just not for too much).

Selection: Cleveland Browns + 11.0

The NFL in the moment - Saturday, PM, Week Seven - 2015

New!!! See our Alternate Spread Selections for Week Seven Below!!!

Weeks seven through eleven are the dog days of summer in the NFL where true play-off contenders try to rest as many stars as they can (Ben Roethlisberger and Dez Bryant are obvious examples while Gronkowski, targeted only five (5) times the past two games is more subtle) because they might be needed for the stretch run to get into the post season and will most certainly be needed in the Playoffs. Most teams have their Bye week during this stretch and since going 16-0 in 2007 the Patriots have lost one (1) or two (2) games during this stretch (including Week Twelve) even during 14-2 or 13-3 seasons. Trying to figure out which game(s) the ”perfects” (the five (5) unbeaten, thus far, teams) is the task. The odds for the teams they play against will be quite attractive.

Looking at Week Seven, where we have football from 9:30am until around midnight with the Bills/Jags clash in London, England, the Bengals, Broncos or Packers won’t lose for certain as they are all on their Bye Week. The Jets visit Foxborough and have slid from 9/2 to 4/1 and are already down to 7/2*with some bookmakers while the Eagles are 13/8 when they travel to Charlotte. Chip Kelly’s Eagles are certainly playing defence well enough and every week everyone expects Sam Bradford to “get it together” however when one looks at Bradford’s career numbers he is playing pretty much at his average Passer Rating right around 80 so it seems that this is as good as it gets with Bradford. In the other game, New England is 6-1 against Jets QB Fitzpatrick while Brady is 20-6 against the Jets.

* Jets down to 3/1 as of Thursday while New England is up to 2/7
* Jets down to 14/5 Saturday AM

Sunday Morning Football

5/11 Buffalo Bills -5.5 @ 21/10 Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5

The Jaguars have disappointed thus far this season but are accustomed to playing in London while the Bills have only played off-site in Toronto where the game that EJ Manuel started was so poorly received and attended that the Bills stopped going there. Jacksonville is expected to win more than the three (3) games they won last year and perhaps this is one of them. We are taking a flyer on the Jags plus the points to make getting up and watching the game worthwhile..

Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 for 2 units

Sunday Afternoon Football

7/4 Houston Texans +4.0 @ 10/21 Miami Dolphins -4.0

It seems that the coaching change in Miami has caused the entire team to give its collective heads a shake with their convincing win over poorly coached Tennessee however Billy O’B and George Godsey have Brian Hoyer playing at a high level and the Texans defence is still expected to be heard from where Belichick acolyte Mike Vrabel is still waiting for a healthy Clowney to get going. We are going to go with the Texans as we expect Miami.to backslide a bit after winning their first game under interim coach Dan Campbell. They did only beat the worst (or second worst) teams in the league in the Titans.

Selection: Houston Texans @ 7/4 for 2 Units/7/4 Houston Texans +4.0 for 4 Units

6/4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.0 @ 10/17 Washington Redskins -3.0

Betting on Captain Kirk when getting a touchdown or at better than 2/1 is one thing but GIVING points and odds of 10/17 are an entirely different affair particularly when their offensive line is all banged up and the one that went out there and played every single offensive snap had two (2) starts collectively prior to this year but Lichtensteiger and Williams could play this week. Tampa meanwhile is getting tremendous production out of Williams and when their running game clicks and Winston only has to throw 20 passes he can be very effective. The Bucs would seem to be the play here to even their record at 3-3 especially if Cousins tosses his customary two (2) Interceptions but we pass.

Selection: None

20/29 Minnesota Vikings -2.5 @ 5/4 Detroit Lions +2.5

Teddy Wobblyballs and Adrian Peterson take on Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson in Motown where the Lions are Home Dogs. In what could be Megatron’s Swan Song the Lions dug themselves into a 1-5 hole (although in fairness they would be 2-4 had the officials known the rules in the Seattle game) the Lions find themselves in the unenviable position of needing to run the table just to have a chance at the Wild Card playoff spots. Minnesota sits at 3-2 with two (2) of the three (3) wins coming on the back of All Day and on the other side Alex Smith’s ineptitude is compounded with Kansas City’s loss of Jamaal Charles. Look for the Lions to even the season series as Peterson’s production has dropped off dramatically and the Lions sit tied for 17th in run defence at 4.0 yards per carry.

Selection: Detroit Lions 5/4 for 4 Units

9/5 New Orleans Saints +4.5 @ 5/11 Indianapolis Colts -4.5

It wasn’t that long ago that the Saints were relevant and Drew Brees was almost never the underdog but Brees isn’t the problem: DC Rob Ryan is the problem. If the Saints defence shows up to play for 60 minutes they can compete with anyone. Shedding Diva Jimmy Graham and Junior Gallette while picking up All Pro center Max Unger will pay off and the Saints were able to put it together enough to put away the theretofore undefeated Atlanta Falcons. The Patriots did not need to embarrass the Colts as they took their foot off the gas after Chuck’s gaffe put them ahead for good on SNF. The Colts would be 2-4 had Jacksonville’s FG kicker made any one (1) of three (3) Field Goals before Viniteri iced it for the Colts. Take the points and go with Brees and the Saints.

Selection: New Orleans Saints +4.5 for 4 Units

8/15 Atlanta Falcons -4.0 @ 15/8 Tennessee Titans +4.0

Tennessee is the worst (or second worst) teams in the league while Atlanta was unbeaten up until the Saints beat them last week. As bad as Tennessee is Atlanta should be 1/5, which they would have been had they beaten the Saints. Talk about a “get right” game! Hammer the Falcons at anything as good as or better than 1/2.

Selection: Atlanta Falcons @ 8/15 for 8 Units

13/4 New York Jets +9 @ 2/9 New England Patriots -9.0

This Patriots team is very good however they are dealing with any number of injuries which of course Bill Belichick won’t release an accurate appraisal of until late Sunday morning, but the numbers speak for them self. Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is 1-6 lifetime while Brady is 20-6 against the Jets and has played well enough to win the last nine (9) games against New York making an exception for the loss 10-20-2013 when the officials called a penalty never called before or after allowing the Jets a second chance, five yards closer, to kick the winning FG from 42 yards after missing a 56 yarder which would have given Brady and the Patriots the ball at their own 38, a couple of first downs away from Gotskowski’s range. Will the Patriots lose? Extremely doubtful but don’t bet the house on it. Meanwhile, leave the spread alone because Belichick will pull his hurting starters as soon as the game is in hand so you never know for certain how much they can get ahead by the middle of the third quarter.

Selection: New England Patriots @ 2/9 for 18 Units

2/1 Cleveland Browns +5.5 @ 5/12 St. Louis Rams -5.5

The Browns were on the Broncos 39 yard line with a first down in overtime after intercepting a Peyton Manning pass and instead of getting a little closer for a FG attempt McCown ended up in a fourth down and 28. Denver did not mess it up a second time and subsequently drove for the winning FG. We ask ourselves, if Cleveland had broken Denver’s unbeaten streak, now at six (6) games, to go to 3-3, who would be favored here. St. Louis has the talent to beat any team in the league, due to in a large part the Robert Griffin fiasco in Washington, but Jeff Fisher is such a lousy coach that they seldom do. Fisher’s winning percentage has never been at or over 0.500 and has in fact declined each season. The Rams only seem to win at 5/2 or better, especially within their division, yet almost always disappoint when favored. We have to take 5.5 points and go with the Browns.

Selection: Cleveland Browns +5.5 for 8 Units

5/8 Pittsburgh Steelers –3.5 @ 7/5 KC Chiefs +3.5

The importance of KC’s loss of Jamaal Charles cannot be understated as he has been the engine that runs the Chiefs for quite some time. Alex Smith has never played without a dominant runner (Gore in SF and Charles in KC) so it is going to be a few weeks before Andy Reid’s solution is in place and, to make matters worse, Maclin is out this week as well. After starting 1-5 with some pretty difficult games upcoming 4-12, or even 2-14 could be realistic as Alex Smith is not capable of carrying his team all by himself. Landry Jones is a better QB at this point than Mike Vick and has been around long enough to learn the playbook. We were wondering how the four (4) year starter out of Oklahoma would fare in the NFL, and if last week’s comeback against a decent Cardinals team was any indication, very nice thank you very much is the answer. That was at home however and on the road in a stadium full of drunken Chiefs fans is another affair altogether and a difficult place to start your first game. There are simply too many better options this weekend to bet this game.

Selection: None

7/4 Oakland Raiders + 4.0 @ 10/21 San Diego Chargers -4.0

The Chargers are yet again in a deep hole to start the season but, as evidenced at Lambeau, Rivers can play at a tremendously high level under difficult conditions. It is the “easy” games (there are no easy games in the NFL) where the Chargers tend to fall down like losing to Minnesota earlier this season, the 37-zip loss to Miami last season and so on. We ended up taking the points and winning last week in Green Bay but the Chargers giving points is always a matter of picking your spots very, very wisely. In the Chargers past five (5) wins the margins of victory were a slim 3-5-3-1-3 points going back to last season (the 5 was in this year’s opener against Detroit). The Raiders are very young and very promising and an upset here should shock no one. Derek Carr’s 74 yard pick six served up to Harris was the difference in the Denver game and Bears kicker Robbie Gould was the difference in the Chicago game so the Raiders could easily be 4-2 instead of the 2-4 that they are. Rivers could very well annihilate Oakland but he has burned us way too many times before to bet on it.

Selection: None

6/4 Dallas Cowboys +3.5 @ 10/17 New York Giants -3.5

Matt Cassel’s childhood dream becomes a reality as he is the starting QB this week for the 2-3 Dallas Cowboys. A victory here coupled with an Eagles loss (see next game below) places the Cowboy’s all alone atop the NFC East.. The Giants are incredibly erratic and their pass rush is almost non-existent, especially since the moronic JPP blew of some part of or entire digits on his right hand piddling around with fireworks on the Fourth of July. The Cowboys won the first leg of this division rivalry with Romo but come into this game with Cassel. If you look at Cassel’s record the last seven (7) starts of 2008 (once he had learned how to play in the NFL) driving the Patriots (throw out the Steelers game as it was during a torrential downpour) or his Pro Bowl year in 2010 in Kansas City you can see that when he has enough talent around him he can perform at a very high level. Dallas also has an extremely good offensive line and a sturdy defence that gets rookie phenom Randy Gregory back for this contest. We expect a salty veteran like Cassel to be ready to play after being in the Big “D” for almost a month. If you want to take the 3.5 points it would be a good idea to do it as soon as possible as it is still available at a couple of Books but has shifted to 3.0 at most of the houses.

Selection: Dallas Cowboys @6/4 for 4 Units/Dallas Cowboys +3.5 for 4 Units

Sunday Night Football

6/4 Philadelphia Eagles +3.0 @ 10/17 Carolina Panthers -3

No one knows what is going on with the Eagles. Just sit down and watch a game and you too will be baffled. On MNF it looked as though the Giants were going to demolish them as NY drove down the field and scored on their first series and then held the Eagles.to a three-and-out BUT a moronic penalty for roughing the passer gave the Eagles a fresh set of downs and suddenly they were off to the races. The Eagles defence (number six (6) in scoring defence) kept the Giants from any more scoring. Carolina remains unbeaten after going to Seattle and quieting the screaming lunatics there by scoring the go-ahead TD with 36 seconds remaining handing the last-place Seahawks their first home defeat since Week Six last season. Cam Newton was very impressive in that game as he ran for the first score himself then leading a comeback from being down 20-7 late in the third quarter. Considering the Seahawks should be 1-5 (the officials blew the game deciding call because they did not know the rules) however the Panthers haven’t beat much this season in wins over Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, the Ryan Mallett version of the Texans and New Orleans when the Saints were winless. The Panthers schedule gets significantly more difficult from here whereas the Eagles have already handed the Jets their only loss and knocked the Giants out of sole possession of first place in their division. We are expecting the Panthers to get their first taste of defeat this Sunday night finding the Eagles defence too tough to crack.

Selection: Philadelphia Eagles @ 6/4 for 3 Units/Philadelphia Eagles +3.0 for 3 Units

Monday Night Football

29/10 Baltimore Ravens +8.5 @ 5/19 Arizona Cardinals -8.5

Carson Palmer’s second interception of the day (during which he also got mauled), this one after driving the ball deep in the Steelers Red Zone turned what looked like it was going to be the Cardinals go ahead score to make it a 20-18 lead for them with a couple of minutes left into a two (2) play, 90 yard scoring drive for Pittsburgh to actually make the score 25-13 as Landry Jones (see above) threw a short pass over the middle to Martavis Bryant who rambled 88 yards to and fro through the entire Arizona defence on the second play. Where that leaves the Cardinals, now 4-2, is anyone’s guess. Baltimore certainly burned a lot of other people’s money when they went to Levi’s Stadium where the 49ers, led by a steady Colin Kaepernick who threw for over 300 yards with zero interceptions for a Passer Rating approaching 130, now gets 8.5 points which is a lot for a team that has been beaten by three (3) points once, four (4) points twice, five (5) points once and six (6) points once with a defence that sorely misses its leader (Suggs). We you look at the teams that the Ravens lost to, two of which remain unbeaten, and compare them to the teams Arizona has beaten suddenly this game doesn’t look that one-sided. Take the points!

Selection: Baltimore Ravens +8.5 for 3 Units

Thursday Night Football

1/3 Seattle Seahawks -6.5 @ 5/2 San Francisco 49ers +6.5

Both teams stand at 2-4 (although Seattle would be 1-5 if the officials were not incompetent in Detroit) while the only team to beat San Francisco at their new home is the Packers. Why it is that people continue to gush about Seattle's defence is mystifying. The only game Seattle won fair and square was against the Bears with Jimmy Clausen at Quarterback. Exactly like a game of Jenga, the players that Seattle had to part with so they could pay the ones that they wanted to keep have forced the whole thing to crumble. Paying the incredibly mediocre Russel Wilson a ridiculous amount of money ended up causing them to lose CB Byron Maxwell and O'Brien Schofield, this year, and CB Brandon Browner, DE Red Bryant and DE Chris Clemons last year, the required intelligence for a dominant, league-leading defence is simply no longer there. It appears that Sherman cannot expect Chancellor, Thomas and whoever plays Right CB to get on the same page six games into the 16 game schedule. They have given away fourth-quarter leads five times. The only QB they did not allow to score in the fourth-quarter was Clausen, who could not put up points in any quarter losing 26-zip. Last week, with 36 seconds remaining, Cam Newton threw the ball deep right to a wide open, uncovered Greg Olsen for 26 yards and a touchdown. After the play they were yelling at each other. Seattle's new defensive coordinator Kris Richard is only 36, but has worked with Carroll since the USC days, can't seem to synchronize a relatively simple defence. Certainly take the six and one-half points and bet the 49ers straight up as well.

Selection: San Francisco 49ers @ 5/2 for 4 Units/San Francisco 49ers +6.5 for 4 Units