AFC 2015
The AFC has held the balance of power for a few years now and seems to be far more up-for-grabs than the NFC.
AFC East
While all four teams in the AFC East attempted to improve this offseason, it remains to be seen if any of them actually did. Miami made the biggest splash signing ”Donkey Kong” Suh however we expect them to have made the smallest improvement, if any. Watching the Patriots/Lions game last fall it was readily apparent that, with adequate game-planning, Suh could be rendered a non-factor fairly easily. In that game, Brady did not get sacked but Stafford did twice, Blount averaged 6 yards per carry and apart from a mental blank spot where Brady through a pass right to Lion defender James Ihedigbo after driving the ball 70 yards down the field to the Lion’s 10 following the second half kickoff, Detroit’s up to then highly vaunted defence was systematically shredded by New England all afternoon. No doubt Suh and WR Greg Jennings represent very nice acquisitions however after losing Odrick, Clay and Hartline et al it is hard to say that Miami is significantly better.
Over in Gotham City, the Jets spent a ton of money bringing back Revis and Cro’ and definitely upgraded at head coach after sending the bombastic Rex Ryan shuffling off to Buffalo and bringing in first year but well thought of new Head Coach Todd Bowles. They also acquired Brandon Marshall to play top dog to Eric Decker’s outlet/third down chain mover specialties and drafted Devin Smith to fill out their WR corps, joining newcomers to the backfield Stevan “I can’t feel my hands” Ridley and Zac Stacy. Add in draft coup-de-grace Leonard Williams to an already stout front seven and you get a very solid, all around team except for at the most important position where Geno “Don’t you know who I am” Smith managed to get his jaw broken by someone who obviously didn’t. It will be another long year in the Big Apple with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center however if he gets hurt perhaps Todd Bowles too will get Case Keenum out of a tree and put him under center if Billy O’B in Houston is willing to give him Keenum’s number (presumably he gets enough bars of reception in the forest).
Speaking of shuffling off to Buffalo, Shady McCoy followed Yogi Bear (doesn’t Rex look exactly like the cartoon character except not quite as clever?) after Chip Kelly tired of Lesean’s song-and-dance routine. McCoy joins Charles Clay and Percy Harvin who headed north and west to keep incumbent Sammy Watkins company at WR. All four of them were expected to catch passes from perennially underrated Matt Cassel until Rex thought (he shouldn’t do that as he is not very good at it) Tyrod should be a starter in the NFL instead of part of your car’s undercarriage. McCoy cost Rex his best linebacker (Kiko Alonzo who tore Brian Hoyer’s ACL while he was sliding on MNF in 2013) nevertheless the Bill’s front seven remains stout and despite being thin the entire Bill’s defence is very strong except at safety.
Bills new GM Doug Whaley went out and got Ryan a solid if unspectacular NFL Starting QB in Matt Cassel to direct a well put together offence and with one impulsive, patented Rex Ryan type move the entire Bills season went down the chute. By committing to Car Part, Ryan pretty much has to let him start the first three games (home to Indianapolis and New England then at Miami) and it is hard to see the Bills winning any of those games with Taylor. At that point, with the Giants coming to town Taylor will get one more chance. The worst thing that can happen to the Bills, hence the most likely outcome, is that they win. When they do, they will have a home date with the Bengals between games at Tennessee and at Jacksonville. Going into their bye Week 8, they will most probably be 3-4 coming off a win. If they beat Miami to go to 4-4 everyone will be talking about the post season again however they will lose four or five games of their next five to be either at 4-9 or 5-8 come Week 15 when it won’t matter much one way or the other what happens when they play the Redskins.
The New England Patriots have won the AFC East every season that Tom Brady has started at least two games since Brady lost 2 of his last 3 starts in 2002. Perhaps more impressive, likely unprecedented and even more unlikely to ever be surpassed is the fact that in every season beginning the year Brady beat Manning in his first ever start on September 30th, 2001, no team in the AFC East has finished with a better Won/Lost record than New England. Although the Patriots missed out on the 2002 (Jets) and 2008 (Dolphins) AFC East titles, they lost both of those years on tie-breakers. To give that span some context, the Jets will be starting the year with their seventh QB and fourth Head Coach since then, the Bills on their sixth HC and eighth QB and the Dolphins on their sixth HC and ninth QB. The surprising thing here is that the Patriots have achieved all of this success while in the main missing with their positional overhauls. This year is no different. Malcolm Butler takes over as CB1 while CB’s 2 & 3 remain to be seen but apart from that New England may have the finest three starting linebackers in the league and starting free safety.
Strong safety is again up for grabs but solidity on the defensive line may be in sight if first rounders Brown and Easley work out. With Sheard and Jones on the ends Ninkovich could see time back at his natural OLB position with a plethora of young blood fighting for the rotational snaps. Youth also is expected to dominate on the interior offensive line where Solder and Volmer are expected to play at near All Pro caliber. Rocket scientist Cameron Fleming may have figured out how to play tackle at the NFL level by now and Chandler will compliment Gronk & Hooman at TE rather nicely. Blount remains fresh at HB where he still has only carried the ball 700 times (by contrast Demarco Murray had 400 carries last year alone) and Brady is still Brady. This year seems to be opening up for Aaron Dobson as the outside WR blazer with Reggie Wayne coming in to compliment Edelman, Amendola and LaFell. Solid from top-to-bottom with plenty of depth, excellent coaching and even better situational planning, New England is once again primed to be in contention for the championship yet again. One thing the impending possible suspension of Brady has shown us is that the Patriots can withstand a major setback, even at quarterback, and still remain in contention.
Winner: New England Patriots at 4/9
Other Play-off Contenders: None
AFC North
Watching Tyrod Taylor rip through the Steelers defence during Preseason Week 3 is became apparent as to why Dick Lebeau left town. This is not your father’s Steel Curtain. Pittsburgh’s offence is primed to be one of the league’s highest scoring units which it better had be because it certainly looks as though they are going to be giving up boatloads of points. It is interesting that the Steelers will be missing key players to kick-off the season for smoking pot. The team’s trainers can distribute oxy’s on the plane home like they are giving out candy but let a guy smoke a joint, which is actually legal in some States (whereas handing out prescription painkillers most assuredly is not), and he can sit at home and forfeit up to $4 million. Only in America. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, who has learned to satisfy his penchant for extremely young women the old-fashioned way by paying for it, continues to excel at quarterback and his cast of characters is pretty impressive.
The AFC North gets both the NFC and AFC West this year and it will be interesting to watch the Steelers go up against the so-called top defences of the NFC West. When it is a toss-up between a 35 year old Carson Palmer (at least until he gets hurt) and Nick Foles as to who is the biggest offensive threat, less than stellar defences don’t have a lot to fear. Pittsburgh gets penalized for winning the division last year by having to go on the road to New England but at least that is early in the season whilst Belichick is still tinkering to see what he has. In addition, they have to go to Seattle during the rainy season. The Ravens on the other hand get Seattle at home in December and get to go to Miami in December as well. Are the Steelers that much better than the Ravens? No, but the Ravens have to go to Denver Week 1, before Manning has any wear and tear on him while Pittsburgh gets him at home in late December. It could very well come down to the Week 16 match-up in Baltimore.
The favored Ravens (at 6/4) meanwhile bid a fond, or not so fond, farewell to the Car Part, in favor of signing Matt Schuab as Flacco’s back-up for more money. Ozzy Newsome, a very shrewd talent evaluator, had Tyrod in his system for four years, and if he decided he was better off with Matt Schaub a prudent man would be better of going along with Ozzy than with Rex Ryan. One might also assume that given the fact that Newsome was happy to let Ngata walk that he has a younger, better version on hand to replace him. The Ravens have not lost more games than they have won since they threw Brian Billick over the side and if you have read any of his pieces on nfl.com you will understand why: The man is a terrible talent evaluator. He loves the Car Part. As mentioned above, Baltimore has both advantages and disadvantages thanks to the scheduler. Their defence will be a year older and a year better since moving on from Ed Reed and Ray Lewis and their offence will be about the same. This team was the closest one to beating New England in the post season last year based on merit (as opposed to dumb luck) and could be heard from if they make the play-offs.
Cincinnati seems to be going nowhere fast. They won’t get any better so long as they stick with Andy Dalton. Their defence seems to be losing the war of attrition and they seem to have gotten the worst from the scheduler. The Bengals will miss the play-offs this year which perhaps will shake things up. It is hard to imagine the Bengals making any great strides under Marvin Lewis and when he goes Belichick will be the longest tenured coach by a very long way. In Cleveland, Josh McCown replaces Brian Hoyer as Johnny Football’s place holder. The Browns schedule builds in degree of difficulty as the season progresses – It isn’t going to be pretty.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers 2/1
Other Play-off Contenders: Baltimore Ravens – No Line for Wild Card
AFC South
A lot of people are pretty excited about the Indianapolis Colts in general and Andrew Luck specifically. We are not among them. The Colts schedule just seems to get easier and easier, no doubt due in no small part to the fact that they get four gimmie wins against Tennessee and Jacksonville. This year they also get Tampa Bay and with Atlanta in transition, Carolina stuck at mediocre and New Orleans being without a defence that could turn into 8 wins without breaking a sweat. In addition, they get both Denver and New England at home. Houston however has the very same schedule and gets Kansas City instead of Denver so it will likely come down to the head-to-head match-ups. Whoever doesn’t win the division will get a wild card.
Winner: Houston Texans at 9/2
Other Play-off Contenders: Indianapolis Colts – No Line for Wild Card
AFC West
We have seen well respected reporters and prognosticators making a believable case for Kansas City, San Diego and Denver winning the division. Most predict a marked improvement for the Oakland Raiders but none can see the Raiders coming out on top. We however can see how the Raiders might win the AFC West title if a great many things go exactly their way. First and foremost, the Raider offence must improve dramatically, starting with the running game. If Latavius Murray can run behind Oakland’s very good left side of their offensive line he may well top individually last year’s collective 1,240 yards (worst in the league). Next, Amari Cooper needs to deliver, and in a big way, right from Week 1. Oakland passed on Leonard Williams, the best player in the draft who was also in a position of need. In order for Cooper to deliver, Derek Carr must make a significant leap forward in his second year as a pro. New Head Coach Jack Del Rio is going to have to improve last season’s points per game allowed (again worst in the league) at over 28 points by at least 7 points to move them into the middle of the pack.
So assuming Carr passes for around 4,000 yards, the Raiders rush for 1,800 yards and score another 7 points a game while giving up 7 points less per game they will give themselves a chance. None of these goals are particularly farfetched when you consider that the Texans scored that many points with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, the Washington Redskins less-than-stellar triumvirate of Booby Griffin, Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy passed for over 4,000 yards, the Minnesota Vikings without Adrian Peterson topped 1,800 yards rushing while keeping opponents scoring down in the 21 point range in Don Zimmer’s first year, down from 30 points per game the previous season. What then must also happen for the Raiders to win the division?
In Denver, not much. It will be very surprising if Peyton Manning finishes the season under center. The tandem of Kubiak and Phillips, last seen guiding a fairly talented Houston Texans squad to a league worst 2-14 record, have been brought in by Elway to replace a very good Head Coach in John Fox whom the Chicago Bears scooped up immediately. Their scheme is far better suited to Brock Osweiler who looked extremely good running it. Look for him to replace Manning as he starts to wilt with the colder weather however in the end the poor coaching will keep the Broncos out of the post season. In Kansas City, there is big excitement surrounding the acquisition of Maclin but the Chiefs have done nothing to shore up a weak offensive line and Alex Smith is a mediocre quarterback. If teams can slow up Jamaal Charles and take away Maclin KC will again have trouble scoring points. In San Diego, defence is once again their Achilles heel and an injury to one of their three or four standouts on defence could spell big trouble.
Will all of these things come to pass? Not likely. Denver does indeed seem doomed and Kansas City is unlikely to score enough but San Diego will in all likelihood take the crown at 10/3 which is a pretty nice price. Kind of hard not to put a few dollars on the Raiders at 25/1.
Winner: San Diego Chargers at 10/3
Long Shot Play-off Contenders: Oakland Raiders at 25/1
NFC 2015
The NFC seems to be far more predictable than the AFC with one dominant team per division except in the NFC West.
NFC East
There are too many things wrong with the NY Giants for them to get into play-off contention. The Washington Redskins are still neck and neck with Tampa, Tennessee and Jacksonville for the worst team in the league and Dallas, back on their way to 8-8, already has Dez Bryant hurting is going to miss Demarco Murray a lot more than they realize, who just happens to have moved over to Philadelphia. The Eagles could be the highest scoring team and the league with a very decent defence. The Eagles will run away with the division and perhaps the conference.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles at 6/5
Other Play-off Contenders: None
NFC North
It is going to take John Fox more than a year to turn the Bears around as he first needs to jettison Jay Cutler. The Lions lost Suh and Fairley, Matt Stafford is as erratic as ever and Calvin Johnson is getting old. Minnesota did not beat a team with a winning record last season despite their seeming improvement and is going nowhere with Bridgewater although Peterson is back and combined with Zimmer’s defence should get a wild card. The Packers would win this thing with Matt Flynn under center but instead they have Aaron Rodgers who more than makes up for the incredibly poor coaching.
Winner: Green Bay Packers at 4/11
Other Play-off Contenders: Minnesota Vikings – No Line for Wild Card
NFC South
Does anyone even care? Unless the winner meets a team in the post season with no quarterback there will doubtless be one-and-done. The Panthers seem to have lost ground on offence and defence and have already lost their top wide receiver. Dan Quinn in Atlanta reminds us of Gandalf the Grey backed up against the Misty Mountains exhorting “I cannot burn snow” (Quinn needs more than he has to build a viable defence). New Orleans is trying to turn into a power running team however with Rob Ryan still mangling the defence they are hard to take seriously although swapping diva Graham for center Max Unger was a great move. Tampa just seems to be going from bad to worse each season and Winston will prove to be an unmitigated disaster.
Winner: Atlanta Falcons at 15/8
Other Play-off Contenders: None
NFC West
What can you say about a division in which the most effective quarterback is a 35 year old Carson Palmer? Jeff Fisher is a terrible coach and trading Bradford for Foles was downright dumb. Expect the Rams to again underachieve. The mass exodus from the 49ers plus throwaway coach Jim Tomsula could find San Francisco back in last place. Seattle is falling apart at the seams and way overpaid for Russell Wilson however inertia should carry them to a wild card. The Arizona Cardinals can win the division if Palmer can get through the season and pick up a wild card if he can’t.
Winner: Arizona Cardinals at 4/11
Other Play-off Contenders: Seattle Seahawks – No Line for Wild Card
2015 Play Offs
AFC NFC
New England Patriots – Bye Philadelphia Eagles – Bye
Houston Texans – Bye Green Bay Packers – Bye
San Diego Chargers Arizona Cardinals
Pittsburgh Steelers Atlanta Falcons
Indianapolis Colts Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Ravens Minnesota Vikings
Wild Card Round Winners
Pittsburgh Steelers Arizona Cardinals
Baltimore Ravens Atlanta Falcons
Divisional Round Winners
New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles
Baltimore Ravens Green Bay Packers
AFC Championship NFC Championship
New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles
Super Bowl 50
New England Patriots
