The NFL in the moment - Week Two 2015

NFLWeek Two 2015

The market has spoken and here is what it has said:

1/1 New England Patriots +1.5    vs   5/6 Buffalo Bills -1.   O/U 45

The Patriots opened as 5/6 favorites (-1 ) however consistent pressure out of Western New York has pushed the spread almost a full field goal (2.5) the other way. Tom Brady has been involved in 26 games against Buffalo with New England winning 23 and losing 3: Week 17 last season (while the Patriots rested their starters for their 2014 Super Bowl Run), a 31-0 aberration opening day (Week One) 2003 (where Brady threw 4 Picks and no TD's which spurred the Patriots on to a 17-1 record the rest of the season culminating in the 2003 Super Bowl) and without much attached drama on another 4 Interception day from Brady Week Three 2011. Any team can win any game on any given day and if Brady throws 4 interceptions today the Patriots will likely lose as Brady has lost all 6 (of 210) of his regular season 4 interception games. A shift of 2 1/2 points in a game expected to be as close as this one is massive. Mobile quarterbacks, going back to Miami unleashing the Wildcat of the modern day NFL against New England in 2008, have given the Patriots trouble in the past however Belichick has adjusted to them pretty well over the years. New England does tend to lose more in September than in the later months but all of these things are looking for the exception. With the points, the Patriots make more sense than ever

Selection: New England Patriots @ 1/1 for 5 units/New England Patriots +1.5  for 5 units – 10 (16)

11/5 San Francisco 49ers +6   vs   5/13 Pittsburgh Steelers -6  O/U 45.5

The 49ers drop yet again this week, down to 5 1/2 points. Their defence sure looked good bottling up Peterson and with Levion Bell out in Steeltown we expect that San Francisco can keep the score down so 5 1/2 is still a pretty big number for them. We are sticking with the earlier wager at +6.

Selection: San Francisco 49ers @ 11/5 for 2 units / San Francisco 49ers +6 @ 10/11 for 2 units -4 (40)

No more time to review the rest of the movement. - Good Luck Every One

Week One 2015 NFL Summary Results

NFL Week 1

Total Units Wagered - 27        Total Units Returned - 31.811        Gross 4.811         Net = 17.81%

12/5 Pittsburgh Steelers +7   vs   5/14 New England Patriots -7   O/U 51.5

This game was 21-3 when the officials allowed the Steeler OLine to tackle the Patriot defenders in order to get back in the game and was nowhere near close to a true seven point game

Selection: New England Patriots @ 5/14 for 3 units

NE 28   PIT 21

31/20 Cleveland Browns +3   vs   4/7 New York Jets -3   O/U 40.0

The Jets are probably a better team with Fitzpatrick under center. Unlikely to win 3 or 4 consecutive post season games, Todd Bowles may be able to get this team to do everything but…Meanwhile Johnny Football was pressed into service when McCown went down and looked okay finishing the first half however after Bowles made his half-time adjustments that was that. Maybe Coach Belichick has some real opposition in Coach Bowles although not signing Cassel when he was available and sticking with Fitzpatrick means Bowles is committed to Geno for this year which can’t be good, can it?

Selection: None

NYJ 31   CLE 10

1/3 Green Bay Packers -7   vs   5/2 Chicago Bears + 7   O/U 50.0

The real news here is that the Bears were able to score 23 points by running it down Green Bay’s throat. This is not a good thing in CheeseHeadLand.

Selection: Green Bay Packers @ 1/3 for 3 units

GB 31   CHI 23

10/11 Kansas City Chiefs +1   vs   5/6 Houston Texans -1    O/U 41.0

Hoyer could not move the ball against this defence and threw two picks inside his own Red Zone. Mallett takes over for the seven easy(er) games before the Texan’s Bye Week after driving for a couple of garbage time scores late. KC remains as good as Alex Smith which is good enough for deep into the play-offs in the NFC but in the AFC he can’t get past his own division

Selection: Houston Texans @ 5/6 for 1 unit and Under 41 points for 1 unit

KC 27   HOU 20

10/19 Miami Dolphins -3.5   vs   33/20 Washington Redskins + 3.5 O/U 43

Kirk Cousins had trouble scoring because of Miami’s strong defensive play. That the Dolphins could only put up 17 points against the very weak Redskin “D” doesn’t bode well for Tannehill. Regis’s brother Joe Philbin will be gone after this year as Tannehill is guaranteed way to much dough to cut.

Selection: Over 43 points for 1 unit

MIA 17   WAS 10

1/2 Seattle Seahawks -4   vs 17/10 St. Louis Rams +4   O/U 41

It would have been nice to have bet the Rams however it was the disarray of Seattle that handed the Rams the win, something you could not have bet on. Can you imagine something like the Chancellor hold-out affecting New England like this? Never in a million years. The Seahawks may be out of contention by the time they get their act together, something the Rams will never do so long as Jeff Fisher is driving the train

Selection: Under 41 points for 2 units

STL 34   SEA 31

5/7 Indianapolis Colts -2.5   vs   6/5 Buffalo Bills +2.5   O/U 46

Car Part was able to make enough plays and the Bills not-so-good OLine was good enough to throw the Colts DLine around all afternoon. Maybe Tennessee wins the division? Meanwhile, Rex has the Patriots coming into town next for a reality check

Selection: Under 46 points for 2 units

BUF 27   IND 14

13/10 Detroit Lions +3   vs   4/6 San Diego Chargers -3 O/U 45.5

We suspected that the Chargers might blow this very winnable game however Rivers had a monster second half to pull it out of the fire. The Lions continue to stumble around shrouded by mediocrity

Selection: None

SD 33   DET 28

23/20 New Orleans Saints + 2.5   vs   20/27 Arizona Cardinals -2.5   O/U 48

We liked the triple, garnering a very nice return despite being played individually (return = 5.74 units). Until Sean Payton throws Rob Ryan over the side Saints fans can expect more of the same all season long. Payton’s ball control theory is a good theory however it is predicated on the defence making stops.

Selection: Arizona Cardinals @ 20/27 for 1 unit, Arizona -2.5 for 1 unit and Over 48 points for 1 unit

ARI 31   NO 19

9/5 Baltimore Ravens +4.5   vs   5/11 Denver Broncos -4.5   O/U 49

The Ravens were indeed able to throttle Kubiak’s offence, preventing Denver from getting the ball into the end zone on offence despite losing Suggs for the year, although Aqib (I can’t speak English) Talib managed a pick six to win the game for Denver. The Ravens meanwhile could do nothing whatsoever on offence until their last drive which would have been a game winning one had the go ahead score not been ripped out of Crockett Gillmore’s hands

Selection: Baltimore Ravens @ 9/5 for 2 units, Baltimore Ravens +4.5 for 2 units

DEN 19   BAL 13

Tennessee Titans   vs   Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Marcus Marry Ought-a did while Winston didn’t with the Happy Hawaiian walking away with 4TD’s, no picks and a perfect passer rating of 151.8 so with the Colts missing a run defence and not having much of a pass defence either and the Texans going all-in on Ryan Mallet can Tennessee also beat the Jaguars out to Win the AFC South at odds of 10-1 after finishing the weekend in first place?

Selection: None

TEN 42   TAM14

20/33 Cincinnati Bengals -3   vs   29/20 Oakland Raiders +3   O/U 43

Derek Carr is not the QB that can lead the Raiders to the Promised Land.

Selection: None

CIN 33   OAK13

21/10 New York Giants +6   vs 2/5 Dallas Cowboys -6   O/U 51.5

Like a page from a bad movie, Coughlin is dumb and Eli Manning is dumber. The Giants has the game won and gave it back for some reason. Weird.

Selection: None

20/31 Philadelphia Eagles -3   vs   27/20 Atlanta Falcons +3   O/U 55.0

We loved the Eagles in this one and they played their game. Dan Quinn just managed to get more out of his troops. It was hard to believe the Falcon defence got so bad so fast so it turns out it didn’t: Smith was just a mediocre coach who brought his defence down to his level. Looks like the NFC South is once again ruled by Atlanta

Selection: Philadelphia @ 20/27 for 2 units, Philadelphia -3 for 2 units and Over 55 points for 2 units

ATL 26   PHI 24

5/7 Minnesota Vikings -2.5   vs   6/5 San Francisco 49ers +2.5   O/U 41.5

Peterson was rusty. Teddy Bridgewater looked exactly as expected as a QB who has yet to beat a team with a winning record. We have the Vikings finishing the season with at least 8 losses, 10 if they split with Chicago and Detroit and likely another 2, finishing at 4-12 unless Peterson goes off-the-charts, unlikely at beyond age 30.

Selection: Under 41.5 points for 1 unit

The NFL in this moment - Week One 2015

Thursday Night Football

12/5 Pittsburgh Steelers +7   vs   5/14 New England Patriots -7   O/U 51.5

The New England Patriots kick off the 2015 Season when Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers come to Beantown this Thursday Night. The Patriots seem primed to go off like the fourth of July now that playing football is the only thing they have to worry about. The price is short @ 5/14 however Brady has a lifetime Passer Rating of 110 vs. the Steelers putting up a 151.8 mark last time out. The Patriots are missing a tall, lanky WR, a role presently filled by LaFell who is injured along with Tyms who is out for the year. The Steelers are not the same team when Levion Bell is missing (both he and Patriot back Blount are suspended for smoking pot together when they were both with Pittsburgh last year). The over 51.5 looks tempting,  but the Patriots don’t score as many points in September than they do over the balance of the season while McDaniels and Belichick tinker with the roster. New England is 15-1 at home the past two seasons with the lone loss coming while they rested their starters the final game of the 2014 season for their Super Bowl run. The straight win bet is the only way to play this one.

Selection: New England Patriots @ 5/14 for 3 units

Sunday’s Games

31/20 Cleveland Browns +3   vs   4/7 New York Jets -3   O/U 40.0

It is hard to believe that a team that went 4-12 last year and just lost its quarterback for being such a goof one of his own (now former) teammates broke his jaw is favored but such is the lack of confidence in all things Cleveland. We cannot see a reason to bet either team. Pass.

Selection: None

1/3 Green Bay Packers -7   vs   5/2 Chicago Bears + 7   O/U 50.0

John Fox is good but no one is good enough to beat the Packers with the Bears current defence. The price of 1/3 is rather generous all things considered. Try not to overthink this one and stay away from the spread and the O/U

Selection: Green Bay Packers @ 1/3 for 3 units

10/11 Kansas City Chiefs +1   vs   5/6 Houston Texans -1    O/U 41.0

We expect that the Texans will have a better chance of giving up less points than the Chiefs based on the match up. Brian Hoyer has played both better and worse than Alex Smith at times but the Texans should be stout enough against the run and able to shut down lone WR threat Maclin. We like Houston in a low scoring affair.

Selection: Houston Texans @ 5/6 for 1 unit and Under 41 points for 1 unit

10/19 Miami Dolphins -3.5   vs   33/20 Washington Redskins + 3.5 O/U 43

It is hard to trust the Dolphins on the road at any time and Kirk Cousins always tends to play well in his first start. Nevertheless, we cannot recommend betting real money on Washington however we are pretty confident in the Over.

Selection: Over 43 points for 1 unit

20/33 Carolina Panthers -3   vs 29/20 Jacksonville Jaguars +3   O/U 41

It is hard to bet Jacksonville at any time however the Panthers seem to lack scoring power. Another game that is best left alone entirely.

Selection: None

1/2 Seattle Seahawks -4   vs 17/10 St. Louis Rams +4   O/U 41

Would love to see the Rams win this one but wouldn't bet on it. We can see both teams struggling to find the end zone and are pretty confident with the Under 41

Selection: Under 41 points for 2 units

5/7 Indianapolis Colts -2.5   vs   6/5 Buffalo Bills +2.5   O/U 46

Was expecting the Bills to get off to a good start until Rex Ryan thought (never a good idea) and replaced Cassel with Car Part. Another one to avoid picking a winner however points will be harder to come by than most think so go with the Under

Selection: Under 46 points for 2 units

13/10 Detroit Lions +3   vs   4/6 San Diego Chargers -3 O/U 45.5

The Chargers are not yet all banged up and are playing an inferior squad at home so 4/6 is a pretty good price all considered however this is exactly the kind of game San Diego too frequently loses for no apparent reason.

Selection: None

23/20 New Orleans Saints + 2.5   vs   20/27 Arizona Cardinals -2.5   O/U 48

Arizona should get off to a fast start as long as Palmer holds up and should have little trouble scoring enough points to win against a very poor defensive scheme. We like the triple.

Selection: Arizona Cardinals @ 20/27 for 1 unit, Arizona Cardinals -2.5 for 1 unit and Over 48 points for 1 unit

9/5 Baltimore Ravens +4.5   vs   5/11 Denver Broncos -4.5   O/U 49

The Ravens are all too familiar to Kubiak's offence from last year so should have a pretty good idea how to stop it. One of many disappointing surprises to Bronco fans and 9/5 is a great price. Bet with both hands.

Selection: Baltimore Ravens @ 9/5 for 2 units, Baltimore Ravens +4.5 for 2 units

Tennessee Titans   vs   Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The two worst teams from last year square off sporting their brand new quarterbacks. Sit back and count the interceptions but don’t put any money on it..

Selection: None

20/33 Cincinnati Bengals -3   vs   29/20 Oakland Raiders +3   O/U 43

The Raiders have looked good up to here but now they are using live ammo. Probably best to just watch this one and see if they are for real.

Selection: None

21/10 New York Giants +6   vs 2/5 Dallas Cowboys -6   O/U 51.5

This one may not go all Cowboys but the Giants don't seem to have much going right on defence. Definitely take a pass.

Selection: None

Monday Night Football

20/31 Philadelphia Eagles -3   vs   27/20 Atlanta Falcons +3   O/U 55.0

The Eagles are expected to score early and often against a Falcon defence that hasn't been very good for a while. We like 20/31 on Chip's lads, believe they can spare the three in a high scoring affair.

Selection: Philadelphia Eagles @ 20/31 for 2 units, Philadelphia Eagles -3  for 2 units and Over 55 points for 2 units

5/7 Minnesota Vikings -2.5   vs   6/5 San Francisco 49ers +2.5   O/U 41.5

There are way too many unknowns to make a skilful play on this game. If you must bet, take the under and hope that Peterson is rusty.

Selection: Under 41.5 points for 1 unit