The NFL in the Moment – Sunday – 11.45am EST – Week Eleven 2017

Well. If you are still betting you must still have money. I’ve been working a day job so I don’t have the time to spend 40 hours per week doing this. We did have a good run there.

***UPDATE*** Danny Trevathan is OUT for the Bears

Week Eleven are the final Bye Weeks for 2017, three of the four going to last place teams from 2016 (Jets, Panthers, 49ers and Colts), whatever that means. Cam Newton is involved, so it means something. Here are the games we are betting, and coincidentally (not really) watching in order:

1pm EST TV – FOX – 21/20 Los Angeles Rams   @   4/5 Minnesota Vikings

Bullish Spread:  Minnesota Vikings    -7.0   @   7/4

Bearish Spread: Minnesota Vikings   +3.5   @   2/5

4.25pm EST TV – CBS – 5/16 New England Patriots   @   13/5 Oakland Raiders

Bullish Spread:  New England Patriots     -13.0   @   7/4

Bearish Spread: New England Patriots     Not Offered

Other Games of Interest

13/4 Washington Redskins   @   2/9 New Orleans Saints  

The odds on this game are not correct. Washington can play with any team in the NFC and should not be 13/4 while the Saints seem to have everyone under some type of WhoDoo that VooDoo spell.

21/20 Atlanta Falcons   @   4/5 Seattle Seahawks

The injury to Kam Chancellor is very unfortunate for Seattle however it plays right into Atlanta’s hand, much like last weeks injuries to Sean Lee and the Cowboys Left Tackle.

10/17 Detroit Lions   @   6/4 Chicago Bears

If Danny Trevathan is starting for Chicago we will bet them. He is as important to Chicago as Sean Lee is to Dallas etc.

4/5 Baltimore Ravens   @   21/20 Green Bay Packers

13/5 Buffalo Bills   @   5/16 Los Angeles Chargers 

The real NFL schedule starts around now. Rosters are set. Looking at the AFC and the schedules of the potential Wild Card teams, despite their apparent struggles, the Ravens are in the driver’s seat so long as they win the games they are supposed to. The Bills could be a Wild Card in the Wild Card race. Most “experts” are at a loss for words concerning the Buffalo situation. We aren’t. CarPart stinks. He never does anything bad. He never does anything good. In short, he never does anything, which is precisely the problem. McDermott needs to beat Tom Brady, not go 8-8, and he knows he’s not beating Tom Brady with Taylor. Opponents the Packers and Chargers had high hopes coming into the season. Hundley will be trying to hold the fort for Aaron Rodgers while Flacco is fighting for his playoff life. Peterman makes his first start in Los Angeles where Philip Rivers is slipping. The attractive price on the Bills?

6/5 Cincinnati Bengals   @   5/7 Denver Broncos

Neither team is out of the Wild Card race mathematically, nor are their schedules too demanding. If Brock Osweiler can play just a little bit better than he did against the Patriots, Denver could win their next five games to sit 8-6 going into Week Sixteen. Cincinnati’s schedule is more demanding, but not impossible.

2/9 Kansas City Chiefs   @   13/4 New York Giants

One must remember just how close the talent level amongst NFL teams is before writing off this game to the Chiefs. There is no reason that the Giants can’t win this game.  Always remember that any team can win any game.

6/5 Arizona Cardinals   @   5/7 Houston Texans

After all the drama, Arizona is only one game out of the hotly contested NFC Wild Card race. Blaine Gabbert is one of the better third string Quarterbacks. Adrian Peterson cold be the difference here.

Other Games

2/7 Jacksonville Jaguars   @   11/4 Cleveland Browns      

10/13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers   @   11/10 Miami Dolphins

                   

The NFL in the Moment – Sunday – 10am EDT – Week Eleven 2017

We have been away for a while. To catch you up real quick:

We essentially did not report for weeks Eight, Nine and Ten and never recapped Week Seven. The Bears made the day for us Week Seven, coming thru at 5/2 coupled with the Patriots dismantling of the Falcons. We also won on the Vikings (over the Ravens) and the Eagles (over Washington) for a third straight good week.

Week Eight was not so good, starting with our Ravens getting shut out 40-zip. We did win on New England, but Washington and Denver let us down. Fortunately, the damage was minimal.

We did not like the card of games for Week Nine. No Patriots, Bears, Steelers or Vikings games due to byes. We played the Jets and Redskins but managed to lose back our profits on forgettable bets.

Week Ten was similar, however, we looked at Week Eleven with hope as the Eagles and Raiders were on bye weeks. We gave ten and one-half points to get the Patriots at a decent price in Denver and were all over the Vikings. The Colts and Chargers stabbed us in the heart as both lost games they should have won. The Chargers were especially bad. We ended the weekend with a profit, but it was highly unsatisfying.

And now, on to the bitter end...

The NFL in the Moment - Week Eleven 2015 Most Probable Winners

As kick-off approaches, after listening to the "Experts" on the assorted pregame shows, a few things seem to be coming into focus.

Miami could not be more up for a game than they are for a Dallas Cowboys team that is starting a still injured Tony Romo is utter desperation. On top of everything, the Cowboys are now favored by 2.5 points. 

Kubiak's offence makes its debut at Soldier Field when Brock Osweiler makes his first-ever start against his former Head Coach John Fox. The last time Kubiak was allowed to run his offence the Texans finished 2-14 on a team that featured JJ Watt. John Fox is now favoured by 2.0 points and should beat his former team.

You can't get any points taking Green Bay as it is now a Pick 'Em but come on, Bridgewater? Our money is going on Rodgers avoiding a four (4) game losing streak.

And finally, the Bengals have the horses to shut down Palmer and drop the Cardinals to 7-3 as this year's top AFC teams appear to have the edge over their AFC counterparts.

St Louis, Washington and Indianapolis all deserve a long look.

Good Luck Everyone

NFL Buddha

NFL 2015 Week Eleven – First Look

For Week Ten, NFL Buddha predicted many upsets including Selection: Houston Texans @ 4/1/Houston Texans + 11.0, Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars @ 2/1/Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5, the Redskins should win, Selection: Chicago Bears @5/2 for a little/Chicago +7.0 for a lot more, Selection: Miami Dolphins + 6.0, Selection: Kansas City + 4.5 (but not for much), Selection: Buffalo Bills +2.5. Other selections were Selection: Carolina Panthers – 4.0 while we cautioned avoiding the New England, Green Bay, Seattle, Oakland, and Pittsburgh. Sorry about being wrong about the Dallas game.

Week 11 has some very interesting games. Jacksonville has a must win game on Thursday when Tennessee visits. The Jags maintain the lead in the most important run defence category, yards per carry, and it will be interesting to see how they perform as 3/4 favorites as they sit one game back in the AFC South behind two teams using questionable backup quarterbacks for at least this week. On Sunday, Tony Romo returns for slightly favored Dallas when they visit South Beach to take on the Dolphins. There was a lot more wrong of late with the Cowboys than missing Romo and Jerrah’s kids can expect their losing streak to continue.

Getting to a game we like, Captain Kirk Cousins’ baptism by fire in Foxborough two weeks back had him scorching his mere mortal opponents in Week Ten, the New Orleans Saints, for 47 points and brings a 3/1 Redskins squad with an offence firing on all cylinder down to Charlotte where it is high time the Panther started losing some games. Kubiak’s decision to start Brock Osweiler against the only coach who knows him, which is so typical, when Denver visits Soldier Field to take on the Bears. In a beautiful irony, the Bears are mounting a playoff run while the Broncos are plummeting like a rock. We are not likely to get any decent odds on Chicago however, which is most unfortunate.

Although we did not actually select the Colts to beat Denver last out (it was a Selection: None game), we did postulate that that game could be the point where the wheels start coming off the Broncos and as such are not as crazy about Indianapolis visiting Atlanta at almost 5/2 as we might normally be.  Case Keenum makes his 2015 debut for the Rams as they visit the Ravens at opening odds of 5/4 and as Keenum’s strength is throwing the deep ball off play-action, which will work very well with Gurley, the Rams could put together a total game and crush the Ravens. The drawback is, of course, the ineptitude of St. Louis Head Coach Jeff Fisher who may be incapable of devising the appropriate game plan.

The Raiders visit Detroit where the Lions are coming off of a big win over the Packers. This game is definitely one to avoid as neither team is predictable. The KC Chiefs visit Phillip Rivers and the Chargers in another one to avoid as San Diego can win any game at any time on the arm of Philip Rivers but are too banged up to bet on. Green Bay visits Minnesota as slight favorites and despite the extreme differences in function at Quarterback (Aaron Rodgers is infinitely superior to Teddy Wobblyballs), Minnesota has Adrian Peterson and Green Bay can’t stop the run. The difference between this season and the previous ones where the Packers had their way is Viking’s coach Mike Zimmer and his very good defence. Minnesota won’t be winning any Super Bowls with Bridgewater (Peyton Manning is done) although they could get to one much like Seattle did.

In the final game that is “on”, San Francisco is 6/1 when the visit the Seahawks with Gabbert at the control for the 49ers. Blaine did beat the Falcons before San Fran’s Bye Week and both teams are 3-6 when you take the Debacle in Detroit into account, so the 49ers have to be worth a small flutter. There is no line on the Bengals/Cards matchup yet and after losing to Houston (we saw that coming in the Cleveland game) the Bengals could end up ‘dogs as the game is in Arizona. It is hard to see Houston beating the Jets with Yates, but Fitzpatrick is not much better. The last game with no line has Tampa visiting Philly where Sanchez will be starting. If Philly is a big favorite we could end up going with uncharged rapist Famous Jamesis. Like it or not, he is in the league to stay.