The NFL in the Moment – Sunday – 8.50pm EDT – Week Five 2017

In-Depth Selections – Top 5 Games

We were pleased to be correct on all three of the late games. The Officials were as bad as expected in Dallas, but the 13/10 Packers would not be denied the win. The Cowboys were grabbing Green Bay’s Defensive Linemen and spinning them around during the drive that put Dallas in front for the last time. Rodgers only needed one minute and two seconds to reclaim the lead by four points.

Both teams in the Honorable Mention section won outright as underdogs. Last Season, Case Keenum’s Rams beat Seattle by six [6] points, the same number of points that 20/21 Seattle beat Jared Goff by today. Goff is headed in the right direction but still has far to go. The Oakland Raiders, who we don’t feel do anything particularly well didn’t and as the result, Oakland got thumped by Baltimore by 13 points.

As at right now, we are 3-1 for out Top Five Selections and 5-1 including out honorable mentions. The Jets and Seahawks were essentially wins at evens while the other games were all at better than even money.

The NFL in the Moment – Sunday – 6.25pm EDT – Week Five 2017

In-Depth Selections – Top 5 Games

Two of our three best early selections did win, the 5/4 Chargers won 27-22 over the Giants and the 10/11 J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets beat the Browns 17-14. Of course, the best-priced 6/4 Bills came up short in Cincinnati where, as we feared, Tyrod Taylor could only manage a meager 166 yards for a Passer Rating of under 75. It just is not good enough. The Bill’s Defence generated 3 turnovers, which should be enough to win any game. The Bengal’s AJ Green had 23 more receiving yards than the all of Buffalo’s pass catchers combined. It was brutal.

Hue Jackson pulled Kevin Hogan in the third quarter in Cleveland, where Hogan proceeded to toss the Interception that that put the Jets up for good. Josh McCown tossed 2 Touchdo to go along with his lone Interception and put up his third Passer Rating in 5 games of over 100. In New York, all of the top three Giant Wide Receivers were injured by the end of the game. To their credit, the Giants did manage to hang onto the lead until only 3 minutes remained in Q4, but that was it.

In our other games, the Packers are down six in Dallas midway through Q3. The crowd seemed disappointed that the illegal tackle the Cowboy’s Mayowa only dealt Rodgers a glancing blow instead of crippling him. Seattle is ahead of the Rams by three going into Q4 while the Ravens are up 7 on the Raiders early in Q4 and driving deep in Raider territory.

The NFL in the Moment – Sunday – 11.55 am EDT – Week Five 2017

In-Depth Selections – Top 5 Games

Here are the five [5] best games to watch and wager on for 2017 Week Five

4/6 Minnesota Vikings (-3)   @   13/10 Chicago Bears (+3)

Many analysts select the Vikings under the assumption that Keenum will be under center. While they may be okay if Bradford steps in, we are not. Keenum developed a rapport all summer practising with Michael “Pink” Floyd and the “twos”, which could be the difference in what looks like a defensive struggle. Do not be fooled by the Bears-Packers result. Chicago’s OC Dowell Loggains panicked when the Bears were down 14-zip and tried to get Mike Glennon to do things beyond his skillset. The result was that the Packers scored 21 points as the direct result of turnovers, one of which was on replacement Center Cody Whitehair (normally a Guard filling in for Hroniss Grasu).

The Bears have a decent team, should be 2-0 at Soldier Field, and would be tied with Minnesota if not for very poor officiating and an untimely drop at the End Zone by Howard vs. Atlanta. Rookie QB Mitch Trubisky will be fine so long as he does not cause turnovers. This game will be much closer than the “experts” (MMQB’s Vrentas, Jones, King, Marston, Mravic & Brandt, SB Nation’s Van Bibber, NFL.com Dameshek and Jones-Drew) expect. We like Keenum at 4/6 but not (-3) over Trubisky, but Trubisky @ 13/10 and of course at (+3) over Bradford. If Bradford starts, watch the in-game odds and be ready to pounce if Bradford goes out and the Bears are up by seven [7] or less in the first half or by three [3] or less during the second half.

13/10 Green Bay Packers (+3)   @   4/6 Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Although we have warned repeatedly to NOT bet against Dallas (the Pro-Cowboy bias amongst Officials is very real), and we have already seen the Officials destroy the Packers on the road (in Atlanta), this game is so lop-sided in favor of the Packers that we cannot resist. The secret to stopping Elliott turned out to be pretty simple: Let the Dallas Offensive Linemen grab one person each then rush the four gaps and both corners while having the Free Safety account for Prescott to eliminate the possibility of a flea-flicker.

Meanwhile, the Packers are expecting both Offensive Tackles (Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari) and Nose Tackle Mike Daniels to return. Try to resist the compulsion to bet with both hands, but if you give in to it, you will most probably win. So take the 13/10 Packers (+3) and hope that the outcome of the game cannot be determined by the Officials. On the Alternate Spread market, Green Bay is 2/1 if you think it will be a blowout and are willing to take the Packers (-3.5).

6/4 Buffalo Bills (+3)   @   10/17 Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

The price and spread here tend to indicate either those bettors do not think of Atlanta as a very good team, or that Cincinnati in general and Andy Dalton specifically, are better than they have been. It is also possibly a bit of both. No matter. The fact remains that the only team Cincinnati has beaten this season is also the only team that has zero interest in winning any games, the Cleveland Browns. Until that changes, which we do not see happening here, one must bet against the Bengals. The Bills meanwhile are red-hot after beating Denver Week Three and in Atlanta last week.

Apart from a meaningless Week Seventeen win over Baltimore and both wins over the 1-15 Browns last season, the only games the Bengals won last season were their opener against the Jets, Dolphins, and Eagles. They beat NY (the Jets could not even get a Field Goal in seven [7] plays starting at the Bengal 11-yard-line and Fitzpatrick’s Passer Rating was in the 70’s), who only thought they had a QB, by a single [1] point. Cincinnati beat the Dolphins in the midst of their 1-4 start (the 1 being a win over, you guessed it, Cleveland), and the Eagles in what has been Carson Wentz’s worst start in the NFL when he tossed three [3] Interceptions.

Take the 6/4 Bills (+3) as a solid choice in this one. We would nevertheless suggest that you temper your enthusiasm when betting because it is Buffalo. Despite the high numbers Tyrod Taylor continues to put up (he is currently #9 in the ESPN Total QBR tables and rated #5 by PFF), he only throws for 185 YPG so their meaning is questionable. Just be smart.

10/11 New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns 10/11

The most relevant fact is that the Cleveland Browns are getting the first overall pick in the 2018 draft no matter what. The Browns could have won some games this season, perhaps as many as half, had they stuck with Kessler. Instead, the decided to go with Kizer and have thus far been red-shirting Garrett. Do not expect to see much of the first overall pick on the field today or any other day. We are guessing that Cleveland wants a Quarterback at the top of next year’s draft.

The 2-2 NY Jets are decidedly decent, as their trade for Jermaine Kearse has worked out splendidly. With last season’s WR1 Enunwa out, possibly permanently with neck issues, WR1-in-waiting Robbie Anderson has stepped up and Kearse provides underrated veteran Quarterback Josh McGown that all-important second option. The Jets got rid of problem child Sheldon Richardson in exchange for Seattle’s second-round pick in 2018, in addition to the little known (outside Seattle) but talented Kearse.

Don’t expect the Browns to win a game before every other team in the league has won at least twice to ensure that they get their man, so take the 10/11 Jets to win.

5/4 Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5)   @   20/29 New York Giants (-2.5)

Although both teams enter this game at 0-4, the Chargers should be 2-2 and re-signed their regular Kicker Nick Novak. The Giants, on the other hand, have yet to come to terms with the fact that Odell Beckham is like a cancer and that until they remove him they will stay sick. This game is not a coin-flip, so take the 5/4 Chargers (+2.5) and watch them win by a Nick Novak Field Goal.

Honorable Mention

7/5 Baltimore Ravens (+3)   @   5/8 Oakland Raiders (-3)

The Ravens Defence is better than the Raiders Defence. Jeremy Maclin is better than Amari Cooper. Joe Flacco is going to play better than EJ Manuel. The Ravens should win here.

20/21 Seattle Seahawks   @   Los Angeles Rams 20/23

The Rams are a good story, but Seattle is a proven good team. We can already hear disgruntled punters saying “What was I thinking…” Jared Goff is presently graded at #17 by PFF whereas the QB that beat Seattle last season in a Rams uniform (Keenum) is graded as #7, so forget the Goff angle.

The NFL in the Moment – Thursday – 7.30pm EDT – Week Five 2017

Update - Thursday Night Football

1/2 New England Patriots   @   Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17/10

As game time approaches, the commentaries are getting nastier and nastier, the odds on New England are going up (and down on the Bucs) as all of the Patriot haters are losing their civility and letting the beast from below show through. It won’t be pretty. The Patriots are going to destroy the Buccaneers. Expect them to be up 40-something to 10 at some point in the 4^th Quarter. New England thrives on this and will come out and prove why they are Champions. Bet as much as you need to so as to get whole on the Patriots for the season.

The NFL in the Moment – Thursday – 5pm EDT – Week Five 2017

The NFL in the Moment – Thursday – 5pm EDT – Week Five 2017

Week Four came and went with some good profit opportunities. Five of our 11 selections won, with Buffalo leading the way at 3.25 to 1 and the Rams not far behind at 2.4 to 1. Both Houston and Philadelphia paid better than even money while the Broncos paid 2 to 3. 2.5 to 1 San Francisco and 2.5 to 1 Washington were unlucky not to win, and would have turned a good week into a monster one had they done so. We were 8-8 ATS, which is not our forte. On to the rest of Week Five (TNF game found below):

N/L Tennessee Titans   @   Miami Dolphins N/L

Unlike Keenum in Minnesota when Bradford went down, the Titans ARE giving Cassel all of the reps with the “ones”, which along with the signing of Brandon Weeden would tend to indicate Mariota will be out this weekend. I can no more explain why Dallas was unable to win with Cassel and Weeden in 2015 than I can how they went 13-3 with a rookie who has regressed all the way back to the College “Pistol” Offence.

Both Weeden and Cassel are top drawer Back-Up Quarterbacks. Weeden got a late start in the NFL as a 29-year-old rookie and ironically, when he matured to the point where he was able to stay within his limitations and competently manage a game in 2015, no teams have been interested since. While watching Delaney Walker duck instead of try to catch Cassel’s first interception was comical, it showed that without practice, any Back-Up Quarterback coming in off the bench is at extreme disadvantage.

Fortunately, for Tennessee, Jay Cutler has yet to find his stride in Miami. We think that if Cassel starts, the Dolphins will end up favored at home. We would take Tennessee in that situation as Cassel will know how to use Decker, and that would make all the difference.

20/23 New York Jets   @   Cleveland Browns 20/21

The Browns do not seem to be in any particular hurry to win a game, otherwise they would be starting Cody Kessler. The Jets are, and Josh McCown has just enough around him to beat the sub 0.500 teams in the league most days. Take the Jets at around Evens.

6/4 Los Angeles Chargers   @   New York Giants 10/17    

Odell Beckham attracts so much negativity to the Giants that they are impossible to bet on. The Chargers were unlucky to miss makeable winning kicks the first two weeks and played a very good Eagles team close, losing 26-24. We love the Chargers at 6/4 this week.

13/4 Jacksonville Jaguars   @   Pittsburgh Steelers 2/9

People are reading far too much into both the Jaguars loss to the Jets and the Steelers win over Baltimore. Jacksonville is a good opportunity at 13/4? The odds should be much tighter than they are.

5/2 Arizona Cardinals   @   Philadelphia Eagles 1/3

It is going to get increasingly more difficult to get a decent price on the Eagles as they continue to win, especially at home. It is hard to see Palmer being successful in Philadelphia against that Defence, even if Fletcher Cox sits another week. Philadelphia’s Offence is starting to gel as Wentz gets more and more comfortable with the offseason additions and the Eagles are learning how to get the most out of power back LeGarrette Blount. Put a half-stake on the Eagles at 1/3.

29/20 Buffalo Bills   @   Cincinnati Bengals 20/33   

The Bills are on a roll atop the AFC East and are a dropped Touchdown away from being 4-0 while the Bengals have lost every game except vs Cleveland, whom we suspect is trying to lose. Take the Bills at 29/20 to keep it going.

EVS San Francisco 49ers   @   Indianapolis Colts 5/6

The Colts total meltdown in Seattle could well be a harbinger of things to come until Andrew Luck returns, and even then their Defence was dreadful. San Francisco has a young, vibrant Defence, and Quarterback Brian Hoyer is capable of lifting his game enough to handle the Indianapolis Defence. Take the 49ers to break Kyle Shanahan's maiden at even money.

23/20 Carolina Panthers   @   Detroit Lions 20/27

The Panthers didn’t really beat the Patriots, Gilmore did. Same thing in Buffalo, when Zaye Jones beat the Bills with his drop. Detroit meanwhile beat a very good Vikings team in Minnesota at their own game, that is by playing good Defence, not turning the ball over and taking advantage of Minnesota’s turnovers, on which the Lions scored 11 of their 14 points on. Detroit is another team one play away from 4-0 after the bizarre ending in the Atlanta game. Detroit looks like a good bet at 20/27 at home here.

5/4 Baltimore Ravens   @   Oakland Raiders 20/29

The Ravens suffered a couple of bad losses after starting 2-0 then losing OL Yanda. Skura and Eluemunor have been pretty awful in Yanda’s place, making it much harder to both run and pass. The Raider's Defence is questionable and with Carr out and EJ Manuel in, the very good Ravens Defence should be able to keep the score down. Take the Ravens at 5/4, but maybe tread lightly?

10/11 Seattle Seahawks   @   Los Angeles Rams 10/11

Beating the Cowboys was one thing, but the Seahawk Defence is an entirely different animal. The Rams Defence is well stocked with talent, but not very well coached. The key will likely be how the Seahawks Offensive Line performs, which is anyone’s guess. A great game to skip.

23/20 Green Bay Packers   @   Dallas Cowboys 20/27

This looks too good to be true, so be wary. The Packers should demolish Dallas. It is hard to advise you to bet them when the safest thing to do is avoid Dallas entirely. Nevertheless, bet Green Bay at 23/20 with both hands.

5/6 Kansas City Chiefs   @   Houston Texans EVS

We heard Bill O’Brien was smiling on the sidelines on Sunday. Good for him! Rick Smith hasn’t exactly been sending him great Quarterbacks. We are hearing all the same things about DeShaun Watson the we heard about Rob Griffen save for one: Watson does not (yet, at least) have the towering ego. It typically takes the league about a year to figure out how to best thwart mobile Quarterbacks, but Watson is still too new to be dependable and the Chiefs have yet to lose this season. Our gut says Houston, but we are going to just watch this one.

N/L Minnesota Vikings   @   Chicago Bears N/L

We have been watching Minnesota mismanage their Quarterback situation forever, most recently since the erosion of Brett Favre’s skillset. Bradford is practising, and if he starts it is possible that the Vikings will be favored. In that case we would go with the Bears. Alternatively, the public could be enamored with Tribisky in the wake of Watson’s breakout down in Houston, in which case it is possible that the Bears would be favored at home over Keenum. In that case we would go with the Vikings. If the matchup is Bradford vs Tribisky and the Vikings are favored, we would have to pass.

The NFL in the Moment – Thursday – 1pm EDT – Week Five 2017

The Patriots regular last-minute heroics were on schedule last Sunday after Deatrich Wise Jr sacked Cam Newton to create fourth and long with 2:00 remaining, when a flag for a bonehead play by Stephon Gilmore wiped out the sack and ultimately led to the Patriots demise. We find it very difficult to reconcile Gilmore’s actions this season with Belichick’s thoroughness. Looking at his penalty history, he has already accumulated more penalty yards this season than in all but one of his previous seasons.

What happened on Sunday was inexcusable. Having already gotten a penalty for it, he smacks Funchess in the head again right in front of the official to cost the Patriots the win. He really let his teammates down, then compounded it by inferring that it was the official who was in the wrong. This sort of thing does not just happen in a vacuum. I do not doubt that Officials have scrutinized the Bills less than the Patriots of late, since most of their games when Gilmore was there were of no consequence.

We wonder if the behavior was always there? Did he just get away with it in Buffalo? If not, what has changed? Listening to him deny what was blatant on the cameras makes me think that he is struggling with outside issues or injury. Whatever the issue, the Patriots have to keep him off the field until it is resolved favorably. I am sure Revis, who knows the Defence, is in game shape and would ride in and save the day for the right inducement.

Thursday Night Football

2/5 New England Patriots   @   Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2/1

Brady hasn’t been perfect, and going on the road on a short week won’t be getting easier with age. New England’s potent Offence continues to evolve, with Amendola, Cooks, Hogan, Dorsett and Gronkowski presenting a coverage nightmare to opposing Defences when Brady is “on”. With Eric Rowe re-aggravating his groin, we wonder if David Jones will be promoted from the Practice Squad to play the “Tall Cornerback” role, which has been misplayed so far this season.

Despite New England’s woes on Defence, it remains unlikely that Tampa Bay will be able to outscore New England in a shootout. The Bucs best hope is most probably to try and keep the game tight and win at the end. The problem with that is that even at 40-years-old, Brady can still take over an entire game and run off five [5] straight scoring drives. Betting the Patriots at 2/5 is at a shorter than optimal price, and we are not sure that now is the time to double-down on them.

The NFL at this moment - Week Five - 2015

Sunday's Games

7/5 Seattle Seahawks +3.0   @   5/8 Cincinnati Bengals -3.0   O/U   43.0

The Seattle Seahawks would be 1-3 if the officials would have done their Job in the Lions game. Russell Wilson is not a very good quarterback while the Bengals have a much better defense than the Lions. Hard to see any way Seattle wins this one.

Selection: Cincinnati @ 5/8 for 8 Units/Cincinnati -3.0 for 8 Units/16

7/2 St. Louis Rams +9.0   @   1/5 Green Bay Packers -9.0   O/U   46.0

The Green Bay Packers look all but unbeatable this season, especially at home, however only the 2007 Patriots have gotten through a 16 game regular season without losing at least one game. The St. Louis Rams meet the fourth playoff team from last year in five weeks in Green Bay and are 2-1 against them so far (they also lost to the Redskins somehow). If any pass rush is going to rattle Rodgers it will be this one. After winning for us at 5/2 last week we’re taking the Rams again

Selection: St. Louis @ 7/2 for 5 units/ 7/2 St. Louis +9.0 for 5 units/10

6/4 Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0   @   10/17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.0   O/U   42.5

It is hard to tell how the young Jaguars are going to respond after the kicker cost them a road win in Indy and a share of first place. Tampa meanwhile doesn’t seem to have the horses to attack, Winston is too erratic, or defend and will be picking high again next year. If you bet Jacksonville last week, and we did, you have to give them a chance to redeem themselves (although they did not sign a new kicker this week) when they are at-odds against a team like Tampa.

Selection:  Jacksonville @ 6/4 for 10 units/Jacksonville +3.0 for 10 units/20

5/2 Cleveland Browns +6.5   @   1/3 Baltimore Ravens -6.5   O/U   43.5

The basement dwellers of the AFC North meet in Baltimore where Joe Flacco’s only weapon (Steve Smith) broke parts of his back and is unlikely to be back. The Browns meanwhile lost a tough one in San Diego last week. This is the year of the injury in Baltimore and it is easy to picture Cleveland winning a rare road game.

Selection: Cleveland @ 5/2 for 2 Units/ Cleveland +6.5 for 2 Units/16

13/5 Washington Redskins +7.0   @   5/16 Atlanta Falcons -7.0   O/U   48.0

Washington is coming off of a win over the Eagles while the Falcons are 4-0 coming off wins over Dallas (Brandon Weeden version) and the Texans. All of which tells us exactly nothing. The Falcons certainly have the most polished offence but are they for real on defence or is Dan Quinn using gimmicks that can be seen through? Three (3) of the Falcons four (4) wins have come against the NFC East as they attempt to sweep the division in this one. The Redskin defence has been giving up fewer points but did give up 32 to the Giants. If you, like us, question the quality of Atlanta and believe that Kirk Cousins has a future as an NFL Quarterback then at these odds the Redskins are worth a small wager.

Selection:   Washington @ 13/5 for 2 Units/Washington +7.0 for 2 Units/4

13/4 Chicago Bears +9.0   @   2/9 Kansas City Chiefs -9.0   O/U   45.5

Just when you thought the Bears were going into hibernation Cutler (surprisingly) makes the start and beats the Raiders. Kansas City meanwhile is also 1-3 but because the losses have come against Green Bay, Denver and Cincinnati everyone is giving them the benefit of the doubt. Although we don't normally recommend betting on Jay Cutler, Alex Smith is too predictable and John Fox is a heck of a defensive mind. Don’t know that the Bears can win in KC but they should cover.

Selection:  Chicago Bears +9.0 for 3 units/3

1/4 New England Patriots -8.5   @   3/1 Dallas Cowboys +8.5   O/U   49.5

Although 1/4 is too short of a price to take it sure is tempting. The Patriots are operating at an incredibly high level for a team with new personnel at RB, OLine, WR, DLine and where Devon McCourty is the only person playing the same role he did last year in the secondary. It is highly unlikely that Brandon Weeden will have much success against New England’s ball hawk DB’s whereas Brady will dice and slice the Cowboys defence and have the ball out of his hands before Greg Hardy can get anywhere near close to him.

Selection:  New England Patriots -8.5 for 8 units/8

5/11 Denver Broncos -4.5   @   9/5 Oakland Raiders +4.5   O/U   43.5

The betting so far this week has the price on the Raiders dropping and the spread down one. The question here is whether the Raiders young offence can do anything against Denver’s solid cast of veterans when the season is still young and they aren’t too badly injured. This could be a very low scoring affair so the bet here is take the Under

Selection: Under 43.5 points for 8 units

Monday Night Football

6/4 Pittsburgh Steelers +3.0   @   10/17 San Diego Chargers -3.0   O/U   44.5

Michael Vick played well enough in his first start to beat the Ravens but got killed by the place kicker (who is now out of the league) while Rivers unleashed a furious drive to overcome the Browns last week at home. It doesn’t get any easier for the Steelers with ARI, KC and CIN coming up so they have to win this one to try and not lose any more ground on the Bengals then again the same could said about the Chargers staying with Denver. Two good teams hence the three point spread so take the odds and the points in what should be a fun game to watch.

Selection:  Pittsburgh @ 6/4 for 8 units/Pittsburgh -8.5 for 8 units/16

9/5 New Orleans Saints +5   @   5/11 Philadelphia Eagles -5   O/U   49.0

New Orleans played well against a decent Cowboy line-up despite the injuries to Romo and Bryant as Brandon Weeden even drove (for the first time since Cleveland and perhaps ever) the field for a fourth quarter score. The Eagles meanwhile have been inconsistent if not incomprehensible. There is no way to bet Philadelphia at those odds while betting on a Rob Ryan run defence is never a good idea.

Selection:  None

10/17 Buffalo Bills -3.0   @   6/4 Tennessee Titans +3.0   O/U   42.5

The Bills continue to get bet and continue to burn up that money. Car Part could not get anything going against the Giants last week at the Ralph but is expect to outgun New Kid Marcus in Nashville. Although we cannot recommend betting on a Ken Wisenhunt coached team the Titans would be the play if we did.

Selection:  None

20/29 Arizona Cardinals -2.5   @   5/4 Detroit Lions +2.5   O/U   45.0

Detroit did enough to beat the Seahawks last week yet sit at 0-4 while Arizona lost at home to the giant killer St. Louis Rams after beating up on teams that started off the season very poorly. The game may come down to whether Detroit’s injured defenders (Haloti Ngata and Co.) play or stay away. Too tough to call.

Selection:  None

Sunday Night Football

12/5 San Francisco 49ers +7.0   @   5/14 New York Giants -7.0   O/U   43.0

The San Francisco team has not looked very good for three straight weeks while the Giants may be getting over bet because of their win over the Buffalo Bills. This is not a good game to bet.

Selection:  None

Thursday Night Football

2/1 Indianapolis Colts +5.0   @   5/12 Houston Texans -5.0   O/U   41.0

The Colts visit the Texans sitting alone atop the AFC South at 2-2 however if Jacksonville had a proper placekicker or Tennessee a proper coach they would be 0-4. The Texans meanwhile actually are 0-3 having beaten only the lowly Tampa Bay Bucs. Andrew Luck is expected to play for the Colts while Mallett will start for the Texans. Bet the team that is not favored if you must but pass on the game if you can as anything could happen in this game.

Selection:  None

The NFL at Week 5 2015

Week Five kicks off the second quarter of the season (for every team except Tennessee and New England coming into it off of their Bye Weeks) where typically playoff teams start to exercise their dominance has usually been good to us. Quite often, the teams we liked Week Three that found a way to lose have turned it around in Week Four and paid a better price because of it and them gone on to rattle off several straight wins. If one can identify which teams are good enough to sit at 7-3 come Week Eleven (before playoff pressure makes them crumble like Brian Hoyer last season) and then figure out what games they will almost certainly lose (Hint – Visiting Lambeau or Gillette are good examples) there is money to be made.

Going forward, teams like Green Bay and New England will continue to be big favorites until they lose a game. We took a position on the Bengals this week despite the fact that we rarely accept less than 1/1 (although we can bet teams between 1/2 and 1/1 when merited). Cincinnati’s defence is for real so far this year and by finishing second in the AFC North last season they miss the Patriots and instead get the Bills. They will always be limited with Andy Dalton at QB but under the right circumstances they could go to a Super Bowl (their defence is playing that well) and were able to spend their top two draft picks on OLine prospects. DC Paul Guenther has even found a use for A.J. Hawk, something Dom Capers was unable to do.

With Big Ben on the shelf in Pittsburgh, the Bengals November 1^st visit should go much better than it would have otherwise and having already won in Baltimore there is a real possibility that the Bengals go 6-0 in their division as the Browns offence without Hoyer does not seem to have enough jump in its stump to repeat last year performance where Dalton put up a passer rating of 2 at home. If the Bengals have no problem shutting down the anemic Seahawk offence (most probably without Lynch to boot) their games in Buffalo and in Arizona (plus a home game against the Giant Killer St. Louis Rams) and then later on in Denver look to be the most troublesome. Finishing with a 12-4 record may earn Cinci a seeding which would give them a home game in the second round.

Notwithstanding the Bengals, each division in the AFC has the usual suspects at the top, all headed by undefeated teams except the AFC South where dumb luck has Indianapolis in first place and at 1/7 to win the division. Tennessee and Houston are 10/1 now with Jacksonville, who would be alone in first place if their field goal kicker made any one of three field goals he missed in Indy last Sunday, still 20-1 despite having the softest schedule of the four teams. We fully expect Indianapolis to lose four of their next five games (New England, New Orleans, Carolina, Denver and Atlanta) as the four are against teams yet to lose this season and the fifth against New Orleans is in serious doubt. Bet any one of New England, Carolina, Denver and Atlanta if they are at odds of 1/2 or better. We realistically see eight (8) potential losses up ahead for the Colts. If they win 2 of those games as well as the ones they are expected to they will finish 8-8 which might do it this year.

Jacksonville now has enough properly coached talent to win against anyone not “elite” but need to learn how to win, the only thing that can’t be coached. They should be 2-2 and looking at their schedule Atlanta is the only team that is performing at an elite level that the Jags will face the rest of the way. This next stretch where they start in Tampa Bay and then host the Texans and the Bills will show what they can do. With the Colts on their way to Foxborough to get chewed up by a healthy Patriots squad next week the Jags can pull even with them at 3-3 with two straight wins. We shall see if their heartbreaking loss in Indy last week serves to inspire them to greater heights (which we hope it does) or causes them to lose faith in themselves (they are too young and it is too early in the season for that). If the Texans stick with Hoyer they also have a realistic shot at first place in the wide open AFC South where Tennessee is a few years and a head coach away from contending with Marcus MarryOughta.

Nothing has changed in the AFC East where, barring a rash of injuries (always a possibility), The New England Patriots look to dominate for another year as the Dolphins just fired their coach, the Bills don’t have a coach (Ryan has lost 52 games over 7 seasons as an HC – Belichick has lost 65 games over 16 seasons as a contrast and Ryan has lost more games than he has won) and the Jets don’t have a quarterback (Fitzpatrick has never finished a season better than 0.500 despite starting out 3-1 on several occasions). Things are far from boring in Baaastin notwithstanding as Top AFC Playoff Seed, going 16-0 again (New England is the only team to have done so presently),earning Tom Brady another MVP award and of course repeating as Super Bowl Champions all being real possibilities. This weekend the Patriots go to the Big “D” to face Brandon Weeden and the Cowboys looking for their seventh straight win going back to Week Seventeen last season when they rested their starters against Buffalo.

Over in the AFC West, we are as surprised as anyone that the Broncos are 4-0 despite the visible decline in Peyton Manning’s physical capabilities. We are not believers in the Kubiak/Phillips alliance, last seen driving the Texans into a 2-14 ditch while Kubiak deliberately submarined Case Keenum’s play calls after two weeks of very exciting football so he could justify playing his pal Matt Schaub instead.  It looks like the defence mostly put together by John Fox is finally healthy and gelling but the Kubiak/Phillips alliance will doubtless screw that up at some point. Further, it is unreasonable to expect Peyton Manning to get through the year unscathed. He is simply too old and fragile to still be playing in the NFL after years and years of getting knocked around that included a broken neck. We earnestly hope that Peyton hangs them up before he gets crippled for life.

If the Broncos flounder, don’t expect the Kansas City Chiefs to rush in and fill the void. Having watched Kansas City just lose three (3) straight games to teams with At the top of their divisions and yet to lose a game this season, it was strikingly apparent that Alex Smith is neither a very good nor particularly effective quarterback. He must have the physical skills to have been selected first overall by San Fran so the problem must be mental. Alex Smith plays like someone who is so afraid of making a mistake that they just want the play to be over already.

The Oakland Raiders are not the worst team in the AFC anymore however their loss to the Bears last weekend helps keep things in perspective. With the light schedule finishing last entails (the New Yok Jets notwithstanding) not really helping (vs NFC North and AFC North), it will be a surprise if this team finishes at 0.500 or better with the Playoffs out of the question (we would love to be proven wrong here as we have an affinity for the Raiders from the days of The Snake and Jim Plunkett).

The San Diego Chargers it would seem will step up or no one will. Every year for several years the Chargers have looked ready to make a move and every year injuries seem to derail them so either there is something faulty with their practices (or practice facilities) or they don’t have the required depth to contest a 16 game season. If the Chargers can win four (4) of their next five (5) games (this allows for a loss at Lambeau) to go into their Bye Week 10 sitting at 6-3 with both Bronco matches still to come they could be in position to strike when Denver inevitably falters.

Over in the NFC, things appear to be similar with the NFC East resembling the AFC South and the other three divisions having clear leaders except the NFC South, which sent the team with the worst record to the Playoffs last season, the 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers, is sporting two 4-0 teams in Atlanta and Carolina. The NFC East got thrown wide open when the new kids on the Philadelphia Eagle’s block did not mesh well and then Tony Romo and Dez Bryant went down in Dallas (and Brandon Weeden took over), something went right for the Giants as Eli Manning stopped throwing interceptions and started winning games and Washington finally gave up the ghost on Booby Griffon the Tird and stuck with Captain Kirk Cousins until he started winning games and everyone is tied at 2-2 except Philly who is a game behind everyone else at 1-3. Where this is going is anyone’s guess with the public leaving three teams at 9/4 and surprisingly Washington at double the odds (9/2) despite Washington enjoying the softer schedule having already beaten St. Louis and with Tampa Bay yet to come.

Until the Cowboys switch to Matt Cassel under center it is tough to imagine them winning a game before mid-November with New England in town this Sunday, a Bye Week, a trip to New York and then a visit from the Seahawks. On the other hand, if they do switch to Cassel and he gets enough reps with the first team Dallas could start winning the week after their Bye Week (if Dez Bryant really is back by then) and just keep on going right up to their visit to Lambeau in December. Washington does have the softer schedule and Kirk Cousins will only get better with experience coupled with a defence that is no longer terrible. The Redskins are big underdogs this weekend to the (surprisingly) 4-0 Atlanta Falcons. It is high time the Redskins cut bait on Desean Jackson (despite foolishly guaranteeing him $16 million and got themselves a WR1 who actually shows up to play.

The New York Giants meanwhile could be back in Super Bowl mode, as they have been the last two times they played the AFC East, and you have to like the way they summarily dismissed the Bills last weekend. Everyone is waiting for the Philadelphia Eagles to take off under Sam Bradford but watching him on the field does not inspire any confidence. It is looking like Chip Kelly took a swing and a miss at that one and Nick Foles was a much better option than butt fumbler. Perhaps Chip will get desperate enough to go to his third stringer, Thad Lewis, who would thrive in the Eagle offence and who looked pretty good (at times) directing a listless Buffalo Bills squad in 2013.

The Detroit Lions are 0-4 and have been best by injuries however they did have a certain victory over Seattle taken from them by the officials last week. It is almost impossible to imagine the Lions recovering from 0-4, especially with two games against the Packers remaining.  The Minnesota Vikings again have a poor Quarterback to waste another, and perhaps the last, of Adrian Peterson’s prime years. It is almost equally impossible to imagine Minnesota winning anything with Teddy Wobblyballs however Adrian Peterson could carry them for another eight (8) wins and a Wild Card without it being too much of a stretch.

The Chicago Bears could be interesting again. After meeting Playoff teams from 2014 in their first three games (0-3) the Bears got their first “W” last week over the 2-2 Oakland Raiders and do not meet another Playoff team from 2014 until late November however four of those five games are on the road so Head Coach John Fox certainly has his work cut out for him. The Bears defence should be better under Fox and Alshon Jeffery will return at some point. If the Bears can get to 6-4 a Wild Card is not out of the question. The Green Bay Packers rule the NFC North and most likely the entire NFC. It will be interesting to see how good this team is. We have the Rams taking them done this week as our Longshot of the Week as teams will be gunning for them all season long and someone is going to beat them.

The Atlanta Falcons are 4-0 after having swept three of the four NFC East teams (with Washington on tap this weekend to complete the series) and are tied with the 4-0 Carolina Panthers however the Falcons have beaten better teams than the Panthers have and have the easier schedule moving forward. New Orleans just beat Dallas but doesn’t have the defence (Rob Ryan is a serious liability) to contend and Tampa Bay continues to play as the worst team in the league although they too were able to get one over on Rob Ryan. Atlanta is going to the Playoffs barring the usual injury onslaught but how they will measure up to the Packers remains to be seen.

On the left coast in the NFC West it has become painfully apparent that teams have caught on to the likes of Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson, both of whom have become liabilities to their teams. The Seahawks should be 1-3 alongside the 49ers had the officials not stolen their last game from the Lions. They should have to go back and re-play the final minute or so of that game or do something to correct the Seahawks record, especially if it affect any part of home field Playoff considerations. Neither team is a legitimate Playoff threat this season having hopelessly ineffective offences and defences that have suffered too many losses, including two (2) Defensive Coordinators in Seattle.

The two possibly legitimate Playoff threats, St. Louis and Arizona, faced-off last weekend in the desert where the Rams came out on top. The Rams unquestionably have the better roster due to the ridiculous trade that sent Booby to Warshington however Coach Jeff Fisher is a serious deficiency.  Bruce Arians on the other hand is the reason the Cardinals have played so well under him. At 11/5, Arizona is likely the right bet to make on the NFC West winner however Carson Palmer could crash and burn at any time leaving it wide open for the Rams if they can just put together a winning season. The Rams have the talent to go 12-4 (looking at their schedule) especially if Todd Gurley can repeat his second half performance against Arizona. We suggest taking the St Louis Rams at 11/2 to win the NFC West.