The NFL in the Moment – Sunday – 8.50pm EDT – Week Five 2017

In-Depth Selections – Top 5 Games

We were pleased to be correct on all three of the late games. The Officials were as bad as expected in Dallas, but the 13/10 Packers would not be denied the win. The Cowboys were grabbing Green Bay’s Defensive Linemen and spinning them around during the drive that put Dallas in front for the last time. Rodgers only needed one minute and two seconds to reclaim the lead by four points.

Both teams in the Honorable Mention section won outright as underdogs. Last Season, Case Keenum’s Rams beat Seattle by six [6] points, the same number of points that 20/21 Seattle beat Jared Goff by today. Goff is headed in the right direction but still has far to go. The Oakland Raiders, who we don’t feel do anything particularly well didn’t and as the result, Oakland got thumped by Baltimore by 13 points.

As at right now, we are 3-1 for out Top Five Selections and 5-1 including out honorable mentions. The Jets and Seahawks were essentially wins at evens while the other games were all at better than even money.

The NFL in the Moment – Sunday – 6.25pm EDT – Week Five 2017

In-Depth Selections – Top 5 Games

Two of our three best early selections did win, the 5/4 Chargers won 27-22 over the Giants and the 10/11 J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets beat the Browns 17-14. Of course, the best-priced 6/4 Bills came up short in Cincinnati where, as we feared, Tyrod Taylor could only manage a meager 166 yards for a Passer Rating of under 75. It just is not good enough. The Bill’s Defence generated 3 turnovers, which should be enough to win any game. The Bengal’s AJ Green had 23 more receiving yards than the all of Buffalo’s pass catchers combined. It was brutal.

Hue Jackson pulled Kevin Hogan in the third quarter in Cleveland, where Hogan proceeded to toss the Interception that that put the Jets up for good. Josh McCown tossed 2 Touchdo to go along with his lone Interception and put up his third Passer Rating in 5 games of over 100. In New York, all of the top three Giant Wide Receivers were injured by the end of the game. To their credit, the Giants did manage to hang onto the lead until only 3 minutes remained in Q4, but that was it.

In our other games, the Packers are down six in Dallas midway through Q3. The crowd seemed disappointed that the illegal tackle the Cowboy’s Mayowa only dealt Rodgers a glancing blow instead of crippling him. Seattle is ahead of the Rams by three going into Q4 while the Ravens are up 7 on the Raiders early in Q4 and driving deep in Raider territory.

The NFL in the Moment – Sunday – 11.55 am EDT – Week Five 2017

In-Depth Selections – Top 5 Games

Here are the five [5] best games to watch and wager on for 2017 Week Five

4/6 Minnesota Vikings (-3)   @   13/10 Chicago Bears (+3)

Many analysts select the Vikings under the assumption that Keenum will be under center. While they may be okay if Bradford steps in, we are not. Keenum developed a rapport all summer practising with Michael “Pink” Floyd and the “twos”, which could be the difference in what looks like a defensive struggle. Do not be fooled by the Bears-Packers result. Chicago’s OC Dowell Loggains panicked when the Bears were down 14-zip and tried to get Mike Glennon to do things beyond his skillset. The result was that the Packers scored 21 points as the direct result of turnovers, one of which was on replacement Center Cody Whitehair (normally a Guard filling in for Hroniss Grasu).

The Bears have a decent team, should be 2-0 at Soldier Field, and would be tied with Minnesota if not for very poor officiating and an untimely drop at the End Zone by Howard vs. Atlanta. Rookie QB Mitch Trubisky will be fine so long as he does not cause turnovers. This game will be much closer than the “experts” (MMQB’s Vrentas, Jones, King, Marston, Mravic & Brandt, SB Nation’s Van Bibber, NFL.com Dameshek and Jones-Drew) expect. We like Keenum at 4/6 but not (-3) over Trubisky, but Trubisky @ 13/10 and of course at (+3) over Bradford. If Bradford starts, watch the in-game odds and be ready to pounce if Bradford goes out and the Bears are up by seven [7] or less in the first half or by three [3] or less during the second half.

13/10 Green Bay Packers (+3)   @   4/6 Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Although we have warned repeatedly to NOT bet against Dallas (the Pro-Cowboy bias amongst Officials is very real), and we have already seen the Officials destroy the Packers on the road (in Atlanta), this game is so lop-sided in favor of the Packers that we cannot resist. The secret to stopping Elliott turned out to be pretty simple: Let the Dallas Offensive Linemen grab one person each then rush the four gaps and both corners while having the Free Safety account for Prescott to eliminate the possibility of a flea-flicker.

Meanwhile, the Packers are expecting both Offensive Tackles (Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari) and Nose Tackle Mike Daniels to return. Try to resist the compulsion to bet with both hands, but if you give in to it, you will most probably win. So take the 13/10 Packers (+3) and hope that the outcome of the game cannot be determined by the Officials. On the Alternate Spread market, Green Bay is 2/1 if you think it will be a blowout and are willing to take the Packers (-3.5).

6/4 Buffalo Bills (+3)   @   10/17 Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

The price and spread here tend to indicate either those bettors do not think of Atlanta as a very good team, or that Cincinnati in general and Andy Dalton specifically, are better than they have been. It is also possibly a bit of both. No matter. The fact remains that the only team Cincinnati has beaten this season is also the only team that has zero interest in winning any games, the Cleveland Browns. Until that changes, which we do not see happening here, one must bet against the Bengals. The Bills meanwhile are red-hot after beating Denver Week Three and in Atlanta last week.

Apart from a meaningless Week Seventeen win over Baltimore and both wins over the 1-15 Browns last season, the only games the Bengals won last season were their opener against the Jets, Dolphins, and Eagles. They beat NY (the Jets could not even get a Field Goal in seven [7] plays starting at the Bengal 11-yard-line and Fitzpatrick’s Passer Rating was in the 70’s), who only thought they had a QB, by a single [1] point. Cincinnati beat the Dolphins in the midst of their 1-4 start (the 1 being a win over, you guessed it, Cleveland), and the Eagles in what has been Carson Wentz’s worst start in the NFL when he tossed three [3] Interceptions.

Take the 6/4 Bills (+3) as a solid choice in this one. We would nevertheless suggest that you temper your enthusiasm when betting because it is Buffalo. Despite the high numbers Tyrod Taylor continues to put up (he is currently #9 in the ESPN Total QBR tables and rated #5 by PFF), he only throws for 185 YPG so their meaning is questionable. Just be smart.

10/11 New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns 10/11

The most relevant fact is that the Cleveland Browns are getting the first overall pick in the 2018 draft no matter what. The Browns could have won some games this season, perhaps as many as half, had they stuck with Kessler. Instead, the decided to go with Kizer and have thus far been red-shirting Garrett. Do not expect to see much of the first overall pick on the field today or any other day. We are guessing that Cleveland wants a Quarterback at the top of next year’s draft.

The 2-2 NY Jets are decidedly decent, as their trade for Jermaine Kearse has worked out splendidly. With last season’s WR1 Enunwa out, possibly permanently with neck issues, WR1-in-waiting Robbie Anderson has stepped up and Kearse provides underrated veteran Quarterback Josh McGown that all-important second option. The Jets got rid of problem child Sheldon Richardson in exchange for Seattle’s second-round pick in 2018, in addition to the little known (outside Seattle) but talented Kearse.

Don’t expect the Browns to win a game before every other team in the league has won at least twice to ensure that they get their man, so take the 10/11 Jets to win.

5/4 Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5)   @   20/29 New York Giants (-2.5)

Although both teams enter this game at 0-4, the Chargers should be 2-2 and re-signed their regular Kicker Nick Novak. The Giants, on the other hand, have yet to come to terms with the fact that Odell Beckham is like a cancer and that until they remove him they will stay sick. This game is not a coin-flip, so take the 5/4 Chargers (+2.5) and watch them win by a Nick Novak Field Goal.

Honorable Mention

7/5 Baltimore Ravens (+3)   @   5/8 Oakland Raiders (-3)

The Ravens Defence is better than the Raiders Defence. Jeremy Maclin is better than Amari Cooper. Joe Flacco is going to play better than EJ Manuel. The Ravens should win here.

20/21 Seattle Seahawks   @   Los Angeles Rams 20/23

The Rams are a good story, but Seattle is a proven good team. We can already hear disgruntled punters saying “What was I thinking…” Jared Goff is presently graded at #17 by PFF whereas the QB that beat Seattle last season in a Rams uniform (Keenum) is graded as #7, so forget the Goff angle.

The NFL in the Moment – Thursday – 7.30pm EDT – Week Five 2017

Update - Thursday Night Football

1/2 New England Patriots   @   Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17/10

As game time approaches, the commentaries are getting nastier and nastier, the odds on New England are going up (and down on the Bucs) as all of the Patriot haters are losing their civility and letting the beast from below show through. It won’t be pretty. The Patriots are going to destroy the Buccaneers. Expect them to be up 40-something to 10 at some point in the 4^th Quarter. New England thrives on this and will come out and prove why they are Champions. Bet as much as you need to so as to get whole on the Patriots for the season.

The NFL in the Moment – Thursday – 5pm EDT – Week Five 2017

The NFL in the Moment – Thursday – 5pm EDT – Week Five 2017

Week Four came and went with some good profit opportunities. Five of our 11 selections won, with Buffalo leading the way at 3.25 to 1 and the Rams not far behind at 2.4 to 1. Both Houston and Philadelphia paid better than even money while the Broncos paid 2 to 3. 2.5 to 1 San Francisco and 2.5 to 1 Washington were unlucky not to win, and would have turned a good week into a monster one had they done so. We were 8-8 ATS, which is not our forte. On to the rest of Week Five (TNF game found below):

N/L Tennessee Titans   @   Miami Dolphins N/L

Unlike Keenum in Minnesota when Bradford went down, the Titans ARE giving Cassel all of the reps with the “ones”, which along with the signing of Brandon Weeden would tend to indicate Mariota will be out this weekend. I can no more explain why Dallas was unable to win with Cassel and Weeden in 2015 than I can how they went 13-3 with a rookie who has regressed all the way back to the College “Pistol” Offence.

Both Weeden and Cassel are top drawer Back-Up Quarterbacks. Weeden got a late start in the NFL as a 29-year-old rookie and ironically, when he matured to the point where he was able to stay within his limitations and competently manage a game in 2015, no teams have been interested since. While watching Delaney Walker duck instead of try to catch Cassel’s first interception was comical, it showed that without practice, any Back-Up Quarterback coming in off the bench is at extreme disadvantage.

Fortunately, for Tennessee, Jay Cutler has yet to find his stride in Miami. We think that if Cassel starts, the Dolphins will end up favored at home. We would take Tennessee in that situation as Cassel will know how to use Decker, and that would make all the difference.

20/23 New York Jets   @   Cleveland Browns 20/21

The Browns do not seem to be in any particular hurry to win a game, otherwise they would be starting Cody Kessler. The Jets are, and Josh McCown has just enough around him to beat the sub 0.500 teams in the league most days. Take the Jets at around Evens.

6/4 Los Angeles Chargers   @   New York Giants 10/17    

Odell Beckham attracts so much negativity to the Giants that they are impossible to bet on. The Chargers were unlucky to miss makeable winning kicks the first two weeks and played a very good Eagles team close, losing 26-24. We love the Chargers at 6/4 this week.

13/4 Jacksonville Jaguars   @   Pittsburgh Steelers 2/9

People are reading far too much into both the Jaguars loss to the Jets and the Steelers win over Baltimore. Jacksonville is a good opportunity at 13/4? The odds should be much tighter than they are.

5/2 Arizona Cardinals   @   Philadelphia Eagles 1/3

It is going to get increasingly more difficult to get a decent price on the Eagles as they continue to win, especially at home. It is hard to see Palmer being successful in Philadelphia against that Defence, even if Fletcher Cox sits another week. Philadelphia’s Offence is starting to gel as Wentz gets more and more comfortable with the offseason additions and the Eagles are learning how to get the most out of power back LeGarrette Blount. Put a half-stake on the Eagles at 1/3.

29/20 Buffalo Bills   @   Cincinnati Bengals 20/33   

The Bills are on a roll atop the AFC East and are a dropped Touchdown away from being 4-0 while the Bengals have lost every game except vs Cleveland, whom we suspect is trying to lose. Take the Bills at 29/20 to keep it going.

EVS San Francisco 49ers   @   Indianapolis Colts 5/6

The Colts total meltdown in Seattle could well be a harbinger of things to come until Andrew Luck returns, and even then their Defence was dreadful. San Francisco has a young, vibrant Defence, and Quarterback Brian Hoyer is capable of lifting his game enough to handle the Indianapolis Defence. Take the 49ers to break Kyle Shanahan's maiden at even money.

23/20 Carolina Panthers   @   Detroit Lions 20/27

The Panthers didn’t really beat the Patriots, Gilmore did. Same thing in Buffalo, when Zaye Jones beat the Bills with his drop. Detroit meanwhile beat a very good Vikings team in Minnesota at their own game, that is by playing good Defence, not turning the ball over and taking advantage of Minnesota’s turnovers, on which the Lions scored 11 of their 14 points on. Detroit is another team one play away from 4-0 after the bizarre ending in the Atlanta game. Detroit looks like a good bet at 20/27 at home here.

5/4 Baltimore Ravens   @   Oakland Raiders 20/29

The Ravens suffered a couple of bad losses after starting 2-0 then losing OL Yanda. Skura and Eluemunor have been pretty awful in Yanda’s place, making it much harder to both run and pass. The Raider's Defence is questionable and with Carr out and EJ Manuel in, the very good Ravens Defence should be able to keep the score down. Take the Ravens at 5/4, but maybe tread lightly?

10/11 Seattle Seahawks   @   Los Angeles Rams 10/11

Beating the Cowboys was one thing, but the Seahawk Defence is an entirely different animal. The Rams Defence is well stocked with talent, but not very well coached. The key will likely be how the Seahawks Offensive Line performs, which is anyone’s guess. A great game to skip.

23/20 Green Bay Packers   @   Dallas Cowboys 20/27

This looks too good to be true, so be wary. The Packers should demolish Dallas. It is hard to advise you to bet them when the safest thing to do is avoid Dallas entirely. Nevertheless, bet Green Bay at 23/20 with both hands.

5/6 Kansas City Chiefs   @   Houston Texans EVS

We heard Bill O’Brien was smiling on the sidelines on Sunday. Good for him! Rick Smith hasn’t exactly been sending him great Quarterbacks. We are hearing all the same things about DeShaun Watson the we heard about Rob Griffen save for one: Watson does not (yet, at least) have the towering ego. It typically takes the league about a year to figure out how to best thwart mobile Quarterbacks, but Watson is still too new to be dependable and the Chiefs have yet to lose this season. Our gut says Houston, but we are going to just watch this one.

N/L Minnesota Vikings   @   Chicago Bears N/L

We have been watching Minnesota mismanage their Quarterback situation forever, most recently since the erosion of Brett Favre’s skillset. Bradford is practising, and if he starts it is possible that the Vikings will be favored. In that case we would go with the Bears. Alternatively, the public could be enamored with Tribisky in the wake of Watson’s breakout down in Houston, in which case it is possible that the Bears would be favored at home over Keenum. In that case we would go with the Vikings. If the matchup is Bradford vs Tribisky and the Vikings are favored, we would have to pass.

The NFL in the Moment – Thursday – 1pm EDT – Week Five 2017

The Patriots regular last-minute heroics were on schedule last Sunday after Deatrich Wise Jr sacked Cam Newton to create fourth and long with 2:00 remaining, when a flag for a bonehead play by Stephon Gilmore wiped out the sack and ultimately led to the Patriots demise. We find it very difficult to reconcile Gilmore’s actions this season with Belichick’s thoroughness. Looking at his penalty history, he has already accumulated more penalty yards this season than in all but one of his previous seasons.

What happened on Sunday was inexcusable. Having already gotten a penalty for it, he smacks Funchess in the head again right in front of the official to cost the Patriots the win. He really let his teammates down, then compounded it by inferring that it was the official who was in the wrong. This sort of thing does not just happen in a vacuum. I do not doubt that Officials have scrutinized the Bills less than the Patriots of late, since most of their games when Gilmore was there were of no consequence.

We wonder if the behavior was always there? Did he just get away with it in Buffalo? If not, what has changed? Listening to him deny what was blatant on the cameras makes me think that he is struggling with outside issues or injury. Whatever the issue, the Patriots have to keep him off the field until it is resolved favorably. I am sure Revis, who knows the Defence, is in game shape and would ride in and save the day for the right inducement.

Thursday Night Football

2/5 New England Patriots   @   Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2/1

Brady hasn’t been perfect, and going on the road on a short week won’t be getting easier with age. New England’s potent Offence continues to evolve, with Amendola, Cooks, Hogan, Dorsett and Gronkowski presenting a coverage nightmare to opposing Defences when Brady is “on”. With Eric Rowe re-aggravating his groin, we wonder if David Jones will be promoted from the Practice Squad to play the “Tall Cornerback” role, which has been misplayed so far this season.

Despite New England’s woes on Defence, it remains unlikely that Tampa Bay will be able to outscore New England in a shootout. The Bucs best hope is most probably to try and keep the game tight and win at the end. The problem with that is that even at 40-years-old, Brady can still take over an entire game and run off five [5] straight scoring drives. Betting the Patriots at 2/5 is at a shorter than optimal price, and we are not sure that now is the time to double-down on them.