The NFL this weekend September 12th to September 16th of 2013
Week 2 has been
the most profitable week of the season for us over the years as the public
defines teams based on a single game. Last weekend was unusual as the odds
against the favorite winning all 6 games we selected were astronomical yet that
is what happened. Expect that to change...
1) 09/15/13 - (5 to 2 ) Washington (+7.0) AT
(1 to 3) Green Bay
Rodgers and RGIII passed for roughly the same number of yards in losing efforts but
Selection: Washington
2)
Selection: (12 to 5) San Diego
3)
This is a Week 2
special. KC won the battle lot of experience against Dallas Dallas
Selection: (7 to
5) Dallas
4)
Selection: (17 to 10) Buffalo
Bills (+3.0)
5)
At first glance it may look as though the Broncos easily beat the Ravens and are on course for their predicted Superbowl appearance. Maybe. Remember that the NFL is more about mental toughness than anything else. Wes Welker fumbled a punt and one must wonder if he misses Bill Belichick. Meanwhile Eli Manning lost for the first time in
Selection: (17 to 10) New York
6)
These teams play each other twice a year.
Last weekend the Seahawks put up a mere 15 points against Carolina and
they face the tough 49er D here meanwhile San Fran beat a good Green Bay team
putting up over 30 points. Sure Seattle
Selection: (6 to 5 ) San Francisco
OTHER PLAYS
Selection: (2 to 1)
A must win game for Minnesota as they do not want to go 2 games down on the Bears (& maybe the Lions) and in the division after losing to the Lions already.
The NFL this weekend September 5th to September 9th of 2013 - False Faves & Bad Plays
The NFL this weekend September 5th to September 9th of 2013
The 2013 season kicks off with with its usual outrageous inequalities and biases. Let's get right to it:
2) 09/08/13 - (2 to 9) New England (-9.5) AT (+9.5) Buffalo (10 to 3)
These teams have played each other a lot of times in recent years (twice a year) and New England does win more than 7 or 8 times out of 10. A different proposition altogether yet Brady has lost only one opener, a 31 -0 loss in Buffalo 09/07/03 (10 years and one day ago). The Patriots finished 14 - 2 that year, 17 - 2 if you count the Superbowl run, and may do so again however the consensus is that they can be had early while their record 14 rookies "Get Their Wings". Personally I think that Belichick has learned a bit over the last 10 years and that the Patriots will do enough to win but defense is the Bills strong suit and 9 1/2 points is a lot. Take the short price but not the spread.
Selection: (2 to 9) New England Patriots
3) 09/08/13 - (19 to 10) Minnesota (+5.0) AT (-5.0) Detroit (10 to 23)
Here we have 4-12 Detroit opening at home against playoff team Minnesota featuring Adrian Peterson and yet the Vikings are almost 2-1 despite signing Jennings in the offseason. Ponder may not be the best (even on his own team) quarterback however he does not shoot himself in the foot nearly as frequently as does Matthew Stafford. Sure the Lions looked good handing the Patriots their only preseason loss but it was more a case of Brady and his cast of rookies missing the mark than great play by the Lions. Stafford remains undisciplined, Suh remains undisciplined and Reggie Bush hasn't been a game changer throughout his pro career. People still think of the Lions as the 10-6 playoff team of 2011 however I think THAT year was the anomaly, Detroit's only 10 plus win season in the last 17 years. Expect more of the same.
Selection: (19 to 10) Minnesota Vikings (+5.0)
4) 09/08/13 - (9 to 5) Green Bay (+4.5) AT (-4.5) San Francisco (5 to 11)
Green Bay did fall apart in the second half when these teams met in the playoffs however I do not think that any betting strategy based on predicting Aaron Rodgers will under-perform on a regular basis is destined for success, Kaepernick has lost his favorite target in Crabtree and won't be rambling for 58 yard touchdowns this year according to Clay Matthews. Green Bay promises to have a running game this year and if they do they could be awfully tough. It isn't very often you get a chance to play the Packers at almost 2-1 and I expect the 49'ers to decline this year as teams get more film and a better chance to figure out San Fran's good crop of young players.
Selection: (9 to 5) Green Bay Packers (+4.5)
5) 09/08/13 - (33 to 20) New York (+3.5) AT (-3.5) Dallas (10 to 19)
Just because Dallas is paying Tony Romo a lot more money does not mean that he has gotten any smarter. Romo's history of making unforced errors earlier in games is unlikely to have dissipated over the summer (Giants were up 23-zip last time they visited the big "D" and hung on to win) and with the way the Giants can control the clock late that is a recipe for a disaster. Eli Manning is a much better winner and I expect the Giants to challenge the Redskins this year leaving Dallas in third place for a highly unsatisfying season in 2013 starting with a loss in their home opener.
Selection: (33 to 20) New York Giants (+3.5)
6) 09/09/13 - (5 to 9) Houston (-3.5) AT (+3.5) San Diego (8 to 5)
Houston, notoriously a fast starter, welcomes back their 55 million dollar defensive captain Brian Cushing for the 2013 opener out in San Diego to join Watt and Joseph and Ed (may be out Monday though) Reed on defense along with first rounder Hopkins on offense. San Diego has a new head coach, is trying to learn a new offense and still has Philip Rivers driving the train. Hard to believe the Chargers traded Drew Brees for Eli Manning for Philip Rivers all those years ago now. Rivers has looked like he is playing scared lately and took a lot of sacks last year. Houston should win this one in hand so take the price or give the points.
Selection: (5 to 9) Houston Texans (-3.5)
OTHER PLAYS
09/08/13 - (6 to 4) Atlanta (+3.0) AT (-3.0) New Orleans (10 to 17)
Selection: (6 to 4) Atlanta Falcons (+3.0)
09/08/13 - (10 to 17) Seattle (-3.0) AT (+3.0) Carolina (6 to 4)
Selection: (6 to 4) Carolina Panthers (+3.0)
09/08/13 - (5 to 9) Kansas City (-3.5) AT (+3.5) Jacksonville (8 to 5)
Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5)
09/09/13 - (6 to 4) Philadelphia (-3.0) AT (+3.0) Washington (10 to 17)
Selection: (10 to 17) Washington Redskins
New Orleans gets their coach back and home field while Atlanta is the defending division champion and welcomes Steven Jackson. The game should be pick 'em but Atlanta is the faster starter of the two. Cam Newton is the man-sized version of Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are on the road where they were 3-5 last year giving the Lions 1 of their 4 wins. KC has a new coach, QB, scheme etc. and is on the road in the battle of last year's 2-14 teams while the Jaguars are at home. Be safe and take the points. The Redskins are favored at home to start defending their NFC East championship but the Eagles lose a lot of close games early. Take the short price but don't give the points.
Earlier Games
1) 09/05/13 - (11 to 4) Baltimore (+7.0) AT (2 to 7) Denver (-7.0)
Who really believes that if these teams played each other 10 times that Denver would win 7 or 8 times? Yet those are the odds you must give to bet Denver. Wes Welker could not help Tom Brady beat Baltimore in the 2012/13 AFC Championship and Baltimore walked into Denver last January and denied the Broncos a spot in that very game the week before. The only thing that has changed with Baltimore's defense, the part of the team that they win and lose with, is that it has gotten younger and faster. I like Peyton and I like Welker. I like my mom too. I wouldn't take her against the Raven defense either.
Selection: (11 to 4) Baltimore Ravens (+7.0)
Result - Denver 49 Baltimore 27
Wes Welker caught nine passes and 2 touchdowns as it appeared that the Broncos were putting on Denver's impression of New England and applied a thorough drubbing of the Baltimore Ravens. The game actually could have gone either way until Welker's one-hopper in the second half. The Raven's young defense became unhinged when a pass from Manning bounced off the turf into Welker's hands and Manning huddled up immediately and connected down field for a big gain while Baltimore was still reeling from the non-catch. A touchdown ensued as did two other quick TD's and the game was over by the end of the third quarter. Flacco just didn't have the horses to overcome such a big deficit and probably missed Boldin quite a bit. Don't crown the Broncos or write off the Ravens just yet. It is only Week 1 after all.
The 2013 season kicks off with with its usual outrageous inequalities and biases. Let's get right to it:
2) 09/08/13 - (2 to 9) New England (-9.5) AT (+9.5) Buffalo (10 to 3)
These teams have played each other a lot of times in recent years (twice a year) and New England does win more than 7 or 8 times out of 10. A different proposition altogether yet Brady has lost only one opener, a 31 -0 loss in Buffalo 09/07/03 (10 years and one day ago). The Patriots finished 14 - 2 that year, 17 - 2 if you count the Superbowl run, and may do so again however the consensus is that they can be had early while their record 14 rookies "Get Their Wings". Personally I think that Belichick has learned a bit over the last 10 years and that the Patriots will do enough to win but defense is the Bills strong suit and 9 1/2 points is a lot. Take the short price but not the spread.
Selection: (2 to 9) New England Patriots
3) 09/08/13 - (19 to 10) Minnesota (+5.0) AT (-5.0) Detroit (10 to 23)
Here we have 4-12 Detroit opening at home against playoff team Minnesota featuring Adrian Peterson and yet the Vikings are almost 2-1 despite signing Jennings in the offseason. Ponder may not be the best (even on his own team) quarterback however he does not shoot himself in the foot nearly as frequently as does Matthew Stafford. Sure the Lions looked good handing the Patriots their only preseason loss but it was more a case of Brady and his cast of rookies missing the mark than great play by the Lions. Stafford remains undisciplined, Suh remains undisciplined and Reggie Bush hasn't been a game changer throughout his pro career. People still think of the Lions as the 10-6 playoff team of 2011 however I think THAT year was the anomaly, Detroit's only 10 plus win season in the last 17 years. Expect more of the same.
Selection: (19 to 10) Minnesota Vikings (+5.0)
4) 09/08/13 - (9 to 5) Green Bay (+4.5) AT (-4.5) San Francisco (5 to 11)
Green Bay did fall apart in the second half when these teams met in the playoffs however I do not think that any betting strategy based on predicting Aaron Rodgers will under-perform on a regular basis is destined for success, Kaepernick has lost his favorite target in Crabtree and won't be rambling for 58 yard touchdowns this year according to Clay Matthews. Green Bay promises to have a running game this year and if they do they could be awfully tough. It isn't very often you get a chance to play the Packers at almost 2-1 and I expect the 49'ers to decline this year as teams get more film and a better chance to figure out San Fran's good crop of young players.
Selection: (9 to 5) Green Bay Packers (+4.5)
5) 09/08/13 - (33 to 20) New York (+3.5) AT (-3.5) Dallas (10 to 19)
Just because Dallas is paying Tony Romo a lot more money does not mean that he has gotten any smarter. Romo's history of making unforced errors earlier in games is unlikely to have dissipated over the summer (Giants were up 23-zip last time they visited the big "D" and hung on to win) and with the way the Giants can control the clock late that is a recipe for a disaster. Eli Manning is a much better winner and I expect the Giants to challenge the Redskins this year leaving Dallas in third place for a highly unsatisfying season in 2013 starting with a loss in their home opener.
Selection: (33 to 20) New York Giants (+3.5)
6) 09/09/13 - (5 to 9) Houston (-3.5) AT (+3.5) San Diego (8 to 5)
Houston, notoriously a fast starter, welcomes back their 55 million dollar defensive captain Brian Cushing for the 2013 opener out in San Diego to join Watt and Joseph and Ed (may be out Monday though) Reed on defense along with first rounder Hopkins on offense. San Diego has a new head coach, is trying to learn a new offense and still has Philip Rivers driving the train. Hard to believe the Chargers traded Drew Brees for Eli Manning for Philip Rivers all those years ago now. Rivers has looked like he is playing scared lately and took a lot of sacks last year. Houston should win this one in hand so take the price or give the points.
Selection: (5 to 9) Houston Texans (-3.5)
OTHER PLAYS
09/08/13 - (6 to 4) Atlanta (+3.0) AT (-3.0) New Orleans (10 to 17)
Selection: (6 to 4) Atlanta Falcons (+3.0)
09/08/13 - (10 to 17) Seattle (-3.0) AT (+3.0) Carolina (6 to 4)
Selection: (6 to 4) Carolina Panthers (+3.0)
09/08/13 - (5 to 9) Kansas City (-3.5) AT (+3.5) Jacksonville (8 to 5)
Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5)
Selection: (10 to 17) Washington Redskins
Earlier Games
1) 09/05/13 - (11 to 4) Baltimore (+7.0) AT (2 to 7) Denver (-7.0)
Who really believes that if these teams played each other 10 times that Denver would win 7 or 8 times? Yet those are the odds you must give to bet Denver. Wes Welker could not help Tom Brady beat Baltimore in the 2012/13 AFC Championship and Baltimore walked into Denver last January and denied the Broncos a spot in that very game the week before. The only thing that has changed with Baltimore's defense, the part of the team that they win and lose with, is that it has gotten younger and faster. I like Peyton and I like Welker. I like my mom too. I wouldn't take her against the Raven defense either.
Selection: (11 to 4) Baltimore Ravens (+7.0)
Result - Denver 49 Baltimore 27
Wes Welker caught nine passes and 2 touchdowns as it appeared that the Broncos were putting on Denver's impression of New England and applied a thorough drubbing of the Baltimore Ravens. The game actually could have gone either way until Welker's one-hopper in the second half. The Raven's young defense became unhinged when a pass from Manning bounced off the turf into Welker's hands and Manning huddled up immediately and connected down field for a big gain while Baltimore was still reeling from the non-catch. A touchdown ensued as did two other quick TD's and the game was over by the end of the third quarter. Flacco just didn't have the horses to overcome such a big deficit and probably missed Boldin quite a bit. Don't crown the Broncos or write off the Ravens just yet. It is only Week 1 after all.
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