The NFL at the moment - Week 6 Selections

NFL WEEK 6

BYE WEEK:  FALCONS, DOLPHINS

With the tragedy that beset Adrian Peterson and the announcement that Gronkowski is out plus numerous changes in the Money Line* we are revising our Week 6 Selections. We usually neither select teams at less than even money as our top pick nor do we typically have two Primary Selections but there is nothing usual or typical about this week.

*Money Line courtesy of William Hill, NFL Buddha's favorite British bookmaker

Primary Selection

1)  10/13/13 - (11/10) Carolina AT (10/13) Minnesota 

Adrian Peterson's life must have been devastated this week by the events surrounding the brutal murder of his two year old son. Peterson had just returned to the twin cities from the hospital in Sioux Falls when the news of the poor little boy passing reached him and, as of Friday night, he was planning on playing but that could change. The 11/10 Carolina Panthers one win so far this season was a 38-0 romp over the struggling NY Giants in Week 3. Last week Cam Newton was sacked 7 times, threw 3 Int's, lost a fumble and gave up a safety in a 22-6 beat-down by the not-very-good Arizona Cardinals. Old Cam has shown flashes of brilliance over his brief career but games like last week's come up all too often in his 14-22 overall record as a starter. Last year Newton lost 6 of his first 7 and 8 of his first 10 starts and looks on pace to do the same this year. Minnesota was going nowhere fast with Ponder at the helm losing their first 3 but a trip to London and the insertion of Matt Cassel at QB resulted in a convincing win. Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the Twin City water the Vikings picked up winless Tampa Bay discard Josh Freeman. Cassel gets the start as Freeman won't know the play-book yet and they wouldn't dare put Ponder back in (we think) if they want to hang on to any hope of reaching the post season. We see Cassel starting so long as he plays well with Freeman a possible long-term project to take over not sooner than next season - Provided Cassel continues to produce. It should bring out the best in Matt who along with Adrian Peterson could carry a good Viking team far. We had already selected the 5/7 Minnesota Vikings prior to the news of the Peterson tragedy breaking and are staying with them regardless of whether Adrian plays or not. It is only a football game in the grand scheme of things, a mere pastime after all. 

Selection:  (10/13) Minnesota Vikings

1) 10/13/13 - (11/10) New Orleans AT (10/13) New England

Week 6 in Foxboro heralds the return of Stevan Ridley and a healthier Danny Amendola while New England's all-world tight end Gronkowski sets a spell longer with the Patriots back to being the favorite at 10/13. Tom Brady is coming off his worst game since the 2003 season opener in Buffalo when he threw 4 interceptions in a 31-zip loss. The Patriots won the Superbowl that season and may well make a run this season however what happens in early 2014 does not have much bearing on this weekend. New England is known for using the regular season as practice for the post season so easing Gronk back into action at some point and continuing to meld with the kids will likely take priority over early season victories, but both would be nice. New Orleans is on fire and it should be fun to watch the Saints high scoring offence take on the newly rediscovered second most frugal defence in the NFL wherein unsigned rookie free agent Joe Vellano has rocketed up the depth chart to #1 due to strong play and injuries and is doing an admirable job so far filling in for Wilfork while the rest of it gels. The Saints marched out to a 5-0 start, not without a few wobbles, but look very strong getting great play out of the usual suspects. New Orleans doubtless would like to keep the juggernaut rolling while the Patriots are still figuring out their roster and continue to tinker with it. We seldom go against Belichick but had originally selected the 11/10 Saints however on further review we are back on to the Patriots at 10/13 selecting yet another team at less than evens during this very unusual week.

Selection:  (10/13) New England Patriots


Secondary Selections

2) 10/13/13 - (5/7) Green Bay AT (6/5) Baltimore 

Green Bay came off their bye week all business and spanked the Lions 22-9 in Week 5. The Packers played well on both sides of the ball and put in a solid effort all round at Lambeau however a victory against Detroit WITHOUT Megatron is not nearly the same thing as beating the Lions with him. Calvin was a game time scratch after being doubtful all week (we missed that - a thousand pardons please). Unfortunately that wild and crazy guy Clay Matthews busted his thumb and is expected to miss 4 games while his thumb and hamstring heals. The 5/7 Packer's second round pick Eddie Lacy rushed for almost 100 yards (99) and is starting to become the factor that the Pack hoped he would be. Last week 6/5 Baltimore staved of a frantic Miami comeback attempt just barely after kicking their own field goal with under 2 minutes left. The surprising good, young Dolphin team left their kicker with just a little too much to do (a 57 yard FG) to send it into overtime. Joe Flacco cut his picks down to 1 from 5 and Ray Rice rushed for 2 TD's but lost a fumble as the defending champs got above 0.500 for the first time this season and moved back into first place in the AFC North. The AFC is 18-9 against the NFC so far this year with 4 of their losses courtesy of winless teams while the Pack is 2-0 at home, 0-2 on the road and 0-1 vs. AFC teams. At Home at 6/5 wee see last year's Superbowl winner Baltimore as the way to lean in this tilt.

Selection:  (6/5) Baltimore Ravens

2) 10/13/13 - (1/1) Pittsburgh AT (5/6) New York

Geno Smith played by far the best game of his young career completing all but 4 of his 20 passes including 3 TD's and 3 when it counted the most - on the final drive. The Falcons had taken a one point lead when Julio Jones muscled his way to a dubious catch (and subsequently got knocked out for the season with a beautiful crushing but clean tackle) deep in Jet territory. New York then made a great stop on 4th down. On 6th down (4 free downs given for nothing) Atlanta finally punched it in. The smug look on Ryan's face was priceless as it slowly faded into a pout after the kickoff as Geno Smith rifled 3 quick completions for 34 yards then ran himself for 8 to set up the actual game winning FG. Pittsburg had a week off after running into a revitalized Viking team in London led by Matt Cassel after 3 weeks of ineptitude from C. Ponder. The previous week they had beaten themselves with fumbles and a pick 6 vs. Chicago. But the band plays on. The 1/1 Steelers have the pieces to contend with anybody if they can put them together. Geno Smith has yet to put together solid back-to-back efforts as the 5/6 Jets have been playing win one lose one all season and we do not see them breaking that trend against a hungry and rested even money Pittsburgh squad.

Selection:  (1/1) Pittsburgh Steelers  

Tertiary Selection(s)

3)10/14/13 - (5/6) Indianapolis AT (1/1) San Diego

Andrew Luck is quickly maturing into not only the best young quarterback in league but also into one of the best QB's period. Last week he defeated the previously unbeaten Seahawks just as he had beaten their division rival San Fran in Week 3. We believe both NFC West teams to be vastly overrated nevertheless with only one loss to the sneaky good Miami Dolphins the 5/6 Colts look to be awfully strong candidates to win the AFC South this year, especially with the utter disintegration of the never very good anyway Matt (rednecks screaming at him from his driveway and all) Schaub in Houston and the injury to Locker in Nashville. Philip Rivers has been playing hot and cold, sometimes in the same game (last week he threw for over 400 yards with 2 TD's but 3 Int's and a Woodhead fumble gave Oakland the win), this year and the even money Chargers are in the very tough AFC West (collectively 14-6) with a very tough schedule however they can score points, are at home and can't afford to lose any more ground in the division or on the wild card contenders if they are going to take rookie head coach Mike McCoy to the post season in his first year. Indianapolis RB Trent Richardson, termed "an average talent" by legend Jim Brown in Cleveland is still learning the playbook while Danny Woodhead has continued his New England success (mostly) in SD and that could be the difference. Any closer and we would avoid it but we select the 21/20 Chargers at home.

Selection:  (1/1) San Diego Chargers 

3) 10/13/13 - (5/7) Detroit AT (6/5) Cleveland 

We sincerely apologize to readers that we missed the injury to Calvin Johnson who was a game-time scratch last week. That we could miss that the best wide receiver on the planet was that questionable makes us look like Jay Cutler reading a pass defence. We bet the Lions ourselves so we can feel your pain. It looks as though Johnson will be out again, or seriously compromised at least, and without their leading role model in tip top form the unruly Lions seem fairly impotent, especiately with Nate (gotta save that pizza) Burleson out as well. It's always something bizarre with Detroit. Meanwhile back in Cleveland the Browns saviour Brian Hoyer made a rookie mistake mis-timing his slide and blew out his ACL last week returning Brandon (I can't score from the red zone) Weeden to the helm. Cleveland wants Johnny Football and was prepared to write off the season to get him yet finds themselves in the ready this year boat instead. What to do? Stick with Weeden, bring in Grandpa Willis and hope for the worst? Reminds me of that old WKRP episoide where Carlson finds out he is SUPPOSED to lose money. Notwithstanding all this the 6/5 Browns current players have discovered they like winning and should continue to against the Megatron challenged 5/7 Lions.

Selection:  (6/5) Cleveland Browns

3) 10/13/13 - (5/6) Philadelphia AT (1/1) Tampa Bay 

A late addition to our Tertiary Selections, Michael Vick is hurting and unlikely to start for the Eagles so Nick Foles will likely square off against Mike Glennon down in Tampa with Josh Freeman gone to the Vikings. Originally a Game to Avoid, we put it back on after ruminating over this weekend. The 5/6 Eagles have struggled again this year winning only in the opener over a wobbly RGIII playing his first game off major knee surgery and beating the winless Giants last week. Nick Foles will have his hands full trying to operate Chip Kelly's offence and will be hard pressed to repeat his 3 TD performance against the likes of Revis this week instead of the Giants Prince Amukamara, the worst cornerback we have ever seen in the NFL. Tampa Bay, where Greg Schiano thinks he can treat the likes of Revis the same as some college kid from Fargo, of course has yet to win a game. Schiano lost control, before the season even started, of his brash young QB Josh Freeman whom he then fired after the Patriots 2nd ranked defence (points allowed) stymied his inadequate game-plan. Enter third round pick Mike Glennon. With Tampa's bye week Glennon has had two weeks to prepare for Philly's next to last place ranked defence and has an arsenal of weapons (Doug the Slug, VJackson & Williams et al.) at his disposal. Even money Tampa was expected to contend this year as their defence is solid and their offence does have all the parts. They (whoever they are) say that a change is as good as a rest and 0-4 Tampa has had both this week. We see them notching their first win against the defenceless Eagles.

Selection:  (1/1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Other Selection(s)

10/13/13 - (5/14) Cincinnati AT (12/5) Buffalo 

Buffalo's rookie QB EJ Manuel was injured in Cleveland last week running the football and without him the Bills offence looked hapless. Thaddeus Lewis (who?) is in this week making his second career start (he started the last game of last year for the Browns losing 24-10 to Pittsburgh) as the Bills are prepared to wait 3 very tough weeks (Cinci, Miami & N Orleans) for EJ to return. Cincinnati has to be feeling great after knocking off the Patriots and although Brady played horrible the defence has to get some credit. The Bengals are not looking like the playoff lock some "experts" claimed them to be in August but they do have a decent team that is playing well. Andy Dalton is not turning into the franchise QB they wanted him to be but has made some nice throws and has not been an embarrassment. Law Firm is tunnelling his way through DLines perhaps even better than he did in New England making his grandmother (no kidding, she raised him to play ball) even more proud. She watches Ben Jarvus Green Ellis every single game and phones him with her critique afterwards. The 12/5 Bills have a good team but we do not see how Thaddeus can be ready this quickly to beat the 5/14 Bengals therefore we expect a better than a 33% potential profit from Cincinnati this week to be realized.

Selection:  (5/14) Cincinnati Bengals 


10/13/13 - (16/5) Oakland AT (1/4) Kansas City 

Oakland pulled off what on the surface looked like a big win over the Chargers last week however a closer look reveals that San Diego gift wrapped the "W" for them handing them 3 picks and 4 fumbles. The Raiders other win this season was over Jacksonville, a team everyone has beaten, with both wins coming in the Coliseum. The Matt Flynn circus left town this week leaving Mr. Davis 11 million bucks (give, or in Matt's case, take) lighter moving on to find a new benefactor. McFadden is out, Pryor needs seasoning (at least) and the Raider "D" has been erratic. Kansas City comes into the game riding a five game winning streak during which Alex Smith, although shaky at times, has thrown only 3 Int's, Jamaal Charles has gained more than 100 yards from scrimmage and scored a TD in all 5 and the Chief's defence has allowed the fewest points in the league, almost 3 points less than second place New England. 16/5Oakland is winless on the road while 1/4 Kansas City is unbeaten everywhere. The games will get a lot tougher for Andy Reid's KC squad going forward from here so we see them taking full advantage of this opportunity for a potential profit of 25%.

Selection:  (1/4) Kansas City Chiefs 

10/13/13 - (13/5) St Louis AT (5/16) Houston 

• Call For Security 10/09/2013 - A man pulled into the driveway of Matt Schaub's Houston home and yelled obscenities, according to NFL security. Nobody was hurt, but an NFL executive said team security will be working with local police on the matter.

The St Louis Rams opened the season with a victory over Arizona when the Cardinals' Carson Palmer fumbled on his own 22 yard line in the 4th quarter to give the Rams the game. Since then St Louis has beaten Jacksonville and no one else playing downright awful against San Fran and Dallas. Jared Cook looked great against Arizona but has been fairly quiet since while Sam Bradford has passed for less than 250 yards in his last 3 starts and the Ram running game has been virtually non existent post Steven Jackson. On the defensive side the Rams have given up more points than 28 other teams. It is looking like yet another year of high draft picks in the Showmeville. The Texans' meteoric fall from grace has been spearheaded by the total meltdown of QB Matt Schaub who has been playing so poorly that redneck Texans fans are showing up in his driveway as per our preamble. Never more than average at best, Matt has been breaking the back of the Houston's defence by serving up pick after pick with no end in site and was benched in the 4th quarter last week after tossing 3 more. Despite talk of starting Yates or Keenum, Kubiak will likely go with Schaub this week at least. In spite of all this the 5/16 Texans still have a very good defence and could likely beat the 13/5 Rams with a 2 TD handicap hence we shall select Houston.

Selection:  (5/16) Houston Texans

Longshot Selection - WOOF WOOF GO (Revised) 

10/13/13 - (2/1) Washington AT (5/12) Dallas 

The Dallas Cowboys, our selection at 5/2 last week, had the unbeaten Denver Broncos on the ropes in Week 5 as Tony Romo had thrown for over 500 yards and had brought his team from behind with a patented Romo fourth quarter comeback to lead by 7 when with under three minutes the Broncos tied it 48-48. The Cowboys got the ball back with 2:39 left but unfortunately for Dallas fans the Dr. Jekyll Romo had already hit the showers and the Mr. Hyde Romo took the field for the Cowboys final drive. Needing only a few quick first downs to get into FG range for the winner Romo got nothing as he went down on the first play and threw a lovely pass right to Denver defender Danny Trevanthan on the next. Washington meanwhile got off to a very slow start as RGIII was fairly sluggish after his off-season ACL surgery however he was showing marked progress going into his bye week which can only have helped. The Redskins come off a win and then the bye only half a game behind the NFC East lead and started their playoff run last year with a win in the Big "D" last American Thanksgiving.  We expect them to turn this season around this Canadian Thanksgiving weekend at 2/1 going against a 5/12 Cowboys down in Dallas.

Selection:  (2/1) Washington Redskins

Games to Avoid

10/13/13 -  (5/1) Tennessee AT (1/7) Seattle 

If Jake Locker were starting we could make a case for playing Tennessee at 6/1 but he is not, Ryan Fitzpatrick is. Seattle is very tough at home and should win easily however Tennessee has a good defence and Fitzpatrick has played okay on rare occasions. There is no percentage in playing 1/7 shots like this.

10/13/13 - (19/5) Arizona AT (1/5) San Francisco 

San Francisco is not playing that well this year as teams are close to completely having Kaepernick sorted out and their WR ranks are very thin. Arizona is handicapped with underachieving Carson Palmer under centre and a less than stellar defence. We do not see San Fran as a legitimate 1/5 shot and we cannot in good conscience suggest taking Arizona.

10/13/13 - (20/1) Jacksonville AT (1/66) Denver 

Denver will almost certainly win this game as Jacksonville is terrible however at 1 1/2 pennies on the dollar it would be madness to take the risk on what in horse racing is called a bridge jumper.