NFL WEEK 7
BYE WEEK: SAINTS, RAIDERS Money Line courtesy of William Hill, NFL Buddha's favorite British bookmaker
Week 6 brought in the dog days of the NFL season as Week 6 to Week 10 is where early season injuries have caught up with teams. Good teams who started off well give the walking wounded time to recover in time for a post season run. Not-so-good teams that started off well come back down to earth as the law of averages catches up with them. It is where the 5-11 and 6-10 teams get re-aligned to the tone for their season. Last week the Carolina Panthers and St. Louis Rams won, Tampa Bay was leading in the fourth quarter and Jacksonville was only down 21-19 in Denver near the end of the third quarter. What will be surprises this week will be a surprise as that is the nature of surprises.
Long Shot Selection - Woof Woof Go Thaddeus!!!
10/20/2103 (3/1) Buffalo AT (1/4) Miami
The Miami Dolphins come into the game off of their bye week following 2 straight losses while the Bills head down to the land of Dexter fresh from Thaddeus Lewis's improbable début in which he got banged up while taking the Bengals to overtime . Miami should be well rested while the Bills Steve Johnson and C.J. Spiller are smashed up but are practising and should play - Maybe with the 11 million dollar Matt "I knew you'd be surprised" Flynn resurfacing already to drive the train. It is a credit to the Bills with all this twirling around that they are playing so well and were only out of contention the game Jeff Tuel was too painful to watch in. Both of these squads are good young teams on the rise and I saw Matt Flynn play an extremely good game (a 31-27 loss) against the ultimately 14-2 Patriots during the Packers 2010 Superbowl season and can't believe he has regressed as per Pete Carrol's and the (6-16 since 2011) Raiders assessments. Miami's Tannehill is coming along as well in an AFC East that could be the strongest division in the league. 1/4 Miami has home field and this one is so close that it could be the deciding factor nevertheless we must go with the 3/1 Buffalo Bills as our Woof Woof Go of the week.
Selection: (3/1) Buffalo Bills Woof Woof Go
Primary Selection
Primary Selection
10/20/2103 (11/10) Baltimore AT (10/13) Pittsburgh
The Steelers win 1 game and suddenly they are favored over last years Superbowl champs? Preposterous (or not). Pittsburgh is much better than their 1-4 record suggests are they not? The 10/13 Steelers simply have not shown much of anything this year recording their very first takeaway last week beating a Jets team that beat themselves more than anything else. Throwing out the 11/10 Ravens opening day blowout, Baltimore lost by 2 points to probably the best team in the NFC (Green Bay) last week holding the prolific Pack to 19 points and to a surprisingly good Bills team by only 3 points after Flacco threw 5 interceptions! Until Pittsburgh shows much more than befuddling a hot and cold rookie QB who was sub zero last week the Ravens are the skilful selection here..
Selection: (11/10) Baltimore Ravens
10/20/2103 (5/13) Denver AT (11/5) Indianapolis
The 2013 Broncos may be the most overrated team in the last decade (or they may not be). Von Miller returns this week to shore up a shaky defence that had trouble stopping Chad Henne last week. Indianapolis had trouble stopping the run last week in San Diego where the Chargers exposed weaknesses on both sides of the ball. Collectively both teams are 10-2 however this match pales in comparison to the Saints/Patriots cliff hanger last week as that game could have been a dress rehearsal for the Superbowl while this one is more likely one for the Wild Card round. The 5/13 Broncos are facing a decent team for the first time whereas to 11/5 Colts are at home and have beaten some pretty good teams already including handing Seattle their first loss and make the most sense in this particular situation. The Manning hype is of course inconsequential as all hype is.
Selection: (11/5) Indianapolis Colts
The Cowboys were not spectacular beating Washington last week and suffered yet another injury to their DLine with Demarcus "I just know my body recovers really fast and I'm not going to be out that long" Ware going down last week. Romo was unimpressive going 18/30 for 170 with a TD and a pick and the Cowboy running game could not even muster 50 yards total. Nick Foles in Philadelphia on the other hand had the best game of his career throwing for almost 300 yards and 3 TD's (0 Int) achieving a 133.3 passer rating BUT it was against the hapless Schiano and his beleaguered Bucs (have his men stopped playing for him?) who are yet to win even once. The 4/6 Eagles have pretty much, well have, the worst defence (32nd) in the league and their 3 wins were against teams with a collective 1-15 record (which has to be the softest schedule for any team so far) and as such are dubious favorites. The 13/10 Cowboys 3 wins were against teams with a collective 4-13 record however they gave the league leading Broncos a game and lost to the undefeated Chiefs by 1 point so Dallas seems to have played much better than their record (where have I heard that before?) indicates.
Selection: (13/10) Dallas Cowboys
10/20/2103 (23/10) St. Louis AT (10/27) Carolina
The Rams and the Panthers are both coming off surprising wins last week as Carolina took advantage of a sombre Minnesota and a grieving AP while Carolina lucked out catching Houston at their absolute nadir as the Matt Schaub era sounded its death knell. The 23/10 Rams are a 3-3 team that could end up 8-8 based on a very light schedule and could very well win here. The 10/27 Panthers 2 wins came over teams with a collective 1-10 record and they could win another 4 or 5 over similar including this one. All signs point to St. Louis as being the way to go at better than 2/1 so reluctantly we shall (we have to play some games!).
Selection: (23/10) St. Louis Rams
Other Selections
Games to Avoid
Selection: Over time a profit would likely be realized from taking the home team Titans at 7/4 however we can not recommend wagering on Locker as he may play very few snaps leaving us in the hands of Fitzpatrick.
10/17/2013 (11-21) Seattle AT (7/4) Arizona
10/20/2103 (2/7) San Diego AT (11/4) Jacksonville
The Jaguars turned in a great effort up in Denver being within 2 points as the 3rd quarter was winding down. Henne threw for over 300 yards (actually more than Manning's 295) as only 2 picks and a stalled drive on the Bronco 4 yard line in the 4th quarter prevented a huge upset from playing out. The Broncos it would seem are not as good as they appear (Von Miller's return this week aside) while the Jaguars are not as bad as they seemed to be. Gabbert sure looks like a big part of the problem when a known quantity such as Chad can make such a difference. The Chargers on the other hand won a surprising defensive struggle against the Colts forcing Indy to go 3-and-out several times and kicking a whack of field goals. Rivers had passed for over 400 yards his 2 previous starts but Matthews ran for over 100 and Woodhead contributed some key first downs running and catching (very short passes) as the Chargers made Luck and the Colts defence look incredibly ordinary. The 2/7 Chargers need to get on a run if they want to make the post season (as the very well may do) while the 11/4 Jaguars look like they will win some games this year after all, especially if they can improve their situation at QB with all the movement going on just now (and up until the trading deadline). San Diego has a much better defence than Denver and Philip Rivers has knocked Peyton Manning out of the playoffs more than once (and he's not the only one) so Jacksonville will be up to an even harder test this weekend hence we must take San Diego.
Selection: (2/7) San Diego Chargers
10/20/2103 (7/2) Cleveland AT (1/5) Green Bay
The Pack may be back this year, all the way back in the Superbowl as August prognosticators predicted. Brandon "I can't score from the red zone" Weeden may have thrown the most pathetic interception in the history of the NFL last Sunday and is single-handedly keeping 7/2 Cleveland in the running for a very high draft pick - which is looking like what the Browns want given their unbelievable inactivity in the QB market as the trading deadline nears. We almost never recommend a wager on a team at less than 2/7 however the 1/5 Packers look unbeatable in this situation because it certainly seems that Cleveland is playing for next year. Even if the Browns had a decent signal caller they would be hard pressed to beat a team as good as Green Bay but they don't.
Selection: (1/5) Green Bay Packers
Games to Avoid
10/20/2103 (5/9) New England AT (8/5) New York (AFC)
Tom Brady pulled off the last second comeback/TD against New Orleans that slipped away from him the previous Sunday due to a torrential downpour (get it? slipped?) in Cincinnati (pouring rain is New England's achilles heel) and prevents the Patriots from being 6-0 and potentially finishing out the season undefeated (which may be a good thing for them considering what happened last time). The Pats lost another defensive captain (Jerod Mayo) and curiously second year Donta Hightower gets the green dot this week instead of Spikes (I guess Spikes really is leaving after this year). Aqib Talib also went out with a hip and did not practice Thursday and who knows what is going on with Gronkowski? The Jets lost to Pittsburgh last week 19-6 in a game where only 1 TD got scored (and it wasn't by New York). Geno Smith continued his good one week bad the next finishing with no TD's, 2 pick and some missed deep throws while the Jets played good defence as always under T. Rex. If Smith's form holds the 8/5 Jets will play well this weekend and give 5/9 New England all they can handle as we expect this game to be closer than the odds indicate.
Selection: New England is too heavily favored to present a skilful selection while anything less than 2/1 on Geno Smith in a game this close is also not skilful hence No Selection
10/20/2103 (5/11) San Francisco AT (9/5) Tennessee
Tennessee would be our selection here if there were not so many questions about QB Jake Locker rushing back before Fitzpatrick blows off the entire season. It is unlikely young Jake will have practised normally and he is far too inexperienced to wager on in such a situation. The Titans may very well win however so if you wish to "gamble" go ahead.
Selection: Over time a profit would likely be realized from taking the home team Titans at 7/4 however we can not recommend wagering on Locker as he may play very few snaps leaving us in the hands of Fitzpatrick.
10/17/2013 (11-21) Seattle AT (7/4) Arizona
Normally we would not anticipate any surprises here but this is exactly the type of game where they occur. Seattle could go 15-1 however they are much more likely to go 12-4 or so and last year they lost in Arizona and in St. Louis early. There is always a chance that Pete Carroll has learned something second time ‘round in the NFL but... Meanwhile back in Phoenix, Arizona (all the way from Tacoma) Carson Palmer is still the quarterback and Larry Fitzgerald fumbled last week for the first time since 2008 (no the 2 are not related, I just thought Larry's fumble was interesting). The 10 points Palmer gift wrapped for San Fran early last Sunday made up most of the Cards 12 point deficit. At 7/4 it would seem to make sense to play the Cardinals at home however Phoenix already has 3 wins of their anticipated 6 (5 or 6 or 7) forecast for the season and we can not recommend wagering on Palmer. Seattle has tremendous trouble playing at a high level on the road and we believe that taking the 11/21 Seahawks would not be skilful.
Selection: Over time a profit would likely be realized from taking the home team Cardinals at 7/4 however we can not recommend wagering on Palmer.
10/21/2103 (33/20) Minnesota AT (10/19) New York (NFC)
Josh Freeman makes his first start while 33/20 Minnesota falls out of the frying pan and into the fire as another Viking season goes gurgling down the drain. The fact that the 0-6 NY Giants are such big favorites would tend to bear this out however they do have to actually play the game on Monday night. 10/19 New York looked good against the Bears last week however they did lose. We can recommend wagering against either team however we can recommend wagering on neither.
Selection: We can recommend wagering against either team however we can recommend wagering on neither.
10/20/2103 (11/4) Tampa Bay AT (2/7) Atlanta
The Falcons come off their bye week sans Julio and made a grand total of one roster move – signing WR Brian Robiskie (7 caches since 2010) – since his injury. With ordinary receivers Matt Ryan looks pretty ordinary himself, if that. With S. Jackson still out, Jones gone for the season and White playing hurt the Falcons are 1-4 and fading fast. Talk of Gonzo getting traded to the Patriots is absurd as we doubt that any coach/GM would want to help Belichick that much and then who would then sell seats in Atlanta? Conversely, down in Tampa Bay where Greg Schiano is saving Gary Kubiak from being elected “Goat of the Year” we gave Mike Glennon a shot last week against Nick Foles and the rookie did improve markedly from his first start throwing 2 TD’s and cutting his picks in half to 1 but Foles played the best game of his career so far throwing 3 TD’s of his own along with no Int’s and achieving a 133.3 passer rating. With 2/7 Atlanta playing so poorly Tampa Bay appears the logical choice at an attractive 11/4 having lost 5 of their last 10 by a FG or less however Schiano could be the first coach in recent memory to get fired before recording his first victory so it is hard to recommend taking the Buccaneers with him behind the bench.
Selection: Over time a profit would likely be realized from taking the visiting Buccaneers at 11/4 however we can not recommend wagering on Schiano.
10/20/2103 (21/20) Chicago AT (4/5) Washington
It is hard to believe (not really) that the 4-2 Chicago Bears team critics were so high on a few weeks ago is the underdog against the 1-4 Washington Redskins. The Redskins were not impressive in Dallas last Sunday night as Griffin fumbled twice (losing 1) and completed less than half his passes with 0 TD's and 1 Int against a beleaguered Cowboy DLine. Romo wasn't that great either however a punt return TD and fortuitous post turnover field position made his job pretty easy. The Bears were fortunate to hold off the Giants when Eli Manning threw his one millionth interception of the year very late in the 4th quarter (perhaps a bit of an exaggeration) as Cutler choked yet again when the winless New Yorkers turned up the heat. At 21/20 it would seem to make sense to play the Bears but Chicago already has 4 wins of their anticipated 8 (7 or 8 or 9) forecast for the season and has 3 relatively soft games left plus we can not in good conscience recommend wagering on Cutler. Washington has yet to show any sign of turning it around this season and we believe that taking the 4/5 Redskins would not be skilful.
Selection: Over time a profit would likely be realized from taking the visiting Bears at 21/20 however we can not recommend wagering on Cutler. Taking the 4/5 Redskins would not be skilful.
10/20/2103 (21/10) Houston AT (2/5) Kansas City
The Texans turn to Case Keenum, who has never taken an NFL regular season (or post season) snap, in a move of utter desperation after the Supernova (not just the total meltdown) that used to be QB Matt Schaub. The bizarre thing here is that the Texans have a tremendous defence that should be able to win games on their own but hasn't done. Kansas City may have turned around their 2-14 season to a 14-2 one but they are going to lose at least a couple of games. If Keenum can merely manage the game and the Texans can establish the run 21/10 Hoston's Watt/Cushing/Reed and Company should be able to shut down the recently shaky Alex Smith and his undefeated 2/5 Chiefs for a game. Can't they? Probably not. But it isn't logical so we have to give this game a pass
Selection: We can neither recommend wagering against the Texan defence nor wagering on the Texan offence and really have no idea how good (or bad) Kansas City is.
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