NFL WEEK 8
Week 8 marks the halfway point for some teams (with the others next week due to previous bye weeks) and some things are starting to make sense while others get more muddled. KC remains as the only undefeated team at 7-0 but each game seems to get tougher for them. The Broncos soft part of their schedule has ended as they lost one and now who knows how many will follow? Are the Patriots done or about to launch a Superbowl run? More to be revealed....
Long Shot Selection - Woof Woof Go Thaddeus Juanmoretime
10/27/2103 - (4/1) Buffalo AT (1/6) New Orleans
The last time we saw Drew Brees and his Saints they were prematurely celebrating what turned out to be a last play of the game loss to the 5-2 Patriots prior to their bye week. This years model in New England lacks the horsepower of their recent teams however hence the loss is a lot more telling. Rob Ryan is a very good DC however the apparent defensive turnaround (and the Saints 5-0 start) may have had more to do with relatively weak opposition more than anything else. Holding Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer back is not a major achievement while beating Atlanta or Tampa has not been difficult this season either. New Orleans has a nice team this year and spanked a good, young Miami Dolphins squad to prove it but they did lose 9 games last season and we are sure would be very happy to go 10-6 and win the division in 2013 but are probably good enough to finish 12-4. Buffalo is surprising a lot of people this year and is coming in at 3-4 however they lost in exactly the same fashion to the Patriots, suffered a heart-breaking loss to the Bengals in OT and were forced to endure Jeff Tuel and some amazing Browns kick returns en route to a loss to the Brandon Weeden led Cleveland and could very easily be 5-2 instead. The Bills have the best two back attack in the league and a stout defence while Thaddeus Lewis can add to the running game and make almost all of the throws he needs to. The 4/1 Bills stack up almost even with New Orleans and play okay on the road whereas the 1/6 Saints are at home and deserve to be a mild favorite but 16 cents on the dollar is outrageous therefore we must go with the 4/1 Buffalo Bills as our Woof Woof Go for the second week in a row.
Selection: (4/1) Buffalo Bills Woof Woof Go
Primary Selection
Primary Selection
10/27/2103 - (4/1) Washington AT (1/6) Denver
The Denver Bronco's mask was torn in Indianapolis last week as the better than average Colts beat them fairly easily 39-33 with the final score making the game seem closer than it was. Luck outplayed Manning and a Colt fumble midway through the 4th quarter when Indy was up by 11 allowed the Broncos to get as close as they were going to get after which Indianapolis outplayed (and outscored) Denver the rest of the way. Denver has shown a very good passing game, but little else, which was plenty against the teams they played during the soft portion of their schedule however their status as huge favorites to win the AFC will no doubt be normalized in due course as teams playing better capitalize on the Bronco's many weaknesses. Washington may have turned the corner last week in a 45-41 barn burner against the Bears as Griffin is starting to regain his pre-injury form as the halfway mark approaches and Alfred Morris not so coincedently is coming close to gaining his 100 yards a game as run defences must now split their focus between he and RGIII. The tandem rushed for almost 170 yards against the Bears and should be able to rip through Denver's first ranked run defence as at 32nd against the pass teams have been to far behind (and too successful passing) to bother running much. The Redskins never got to play a post season game with a healthy Griffin last year so there is no way to know how good they were while Manning made his customary early exit. With a healthy RGIII, his new tight end and all the other improvements Shanahan has made the 4/1 Redskins could be ready to go on the warpath while the 1/6 Denver Broncos with a banged up 38 year old Manning may be coming back down to earth.
Selection: (4/1) Washington Redskins
10/27/2103 - (11/4) Cleveland AT (2/7) Kansas City
The Kansas City Chiefs are the only remaining team yet to lose a game at 7-0 but they are get awfully close as evidenced by a one point win over Casse Keenum last week. Keenum's 110+ passer rating topped Alex Smith's best 2013 rating by over 15 points in his first start which speaks volumes as to how shaky Smith has been playing and how soft KC's schedule has been of their 2-14 record last year. Ther Chiefs are probably one good draft away from being a very good team as many pieces are in place however the soft part of their schedule is over and finishing the year at 8-8 would be about right. Cleveland on the other hand is a lot further along with their re-build than even they had realized. Brandon Weeden pratices so well and has such a strong arm that the Browns had no idea how much he was holding them back until he got hurt. Trent Richardson is living up to Jim Brown's assessment (average talent) in Indianapolis so their running game is also a lot better than realized. Jason Campbell, leap frogged over by Hoyer earlier this year, finally gets his shot this weekend after Weeden threw perhaps the worst interception in the history of the NFL last week and likely lost his job for good (for bad actually - the poor guy is terrible). The last place Campbell started (Oakland) he went 11-7 over two years and had some very good games. Campbell has a good arm and can run with the main knock against him being his game-to-game consistancy. Having had ample time with Cleveland to prepare for Sunday he should be ready. The 11/4 Browns have looked very good at times this year while Andy Reid has done an unbelievable job taking the 2/7 Chiefs, out to a perfect start almost halfway through the season. KC is at home where they should be favoured however Cleveland has already won this year at 5/2 and almost 2/1 so at almost 3/1 we must again select them.
Selection: (11/4) Cleveland Browns
10/27/2103 - (21/10) NY Jets AT (2/5) Cincinnati
The New York Jets opened the week at 5/2 (which equals 25/10) and as such would like have been our top selection. The officials seemed to gift the Jets last weeks win over the Patriots nevertheless they did win (again) for T Rex giving him a much desired W over his nemesis BB in NE. Ryan is always calling Belichick the best coach in the NFL, meanwhile Rex himself is probably just as good a coach (and he knows it) and now that Sanchez is out of the way we get to see just how good this team is. There is a very good chance at least one of the teams playing in this game will make the post season. 2/5 Cincinnati is 5-2 with a W over New England also as well as Green Bay however they lost to Cutler (Chicago) opening week plus Cleveland (with the unfortunate Brian Hoyer under center) and almost to Buffalo in OT which puts their consistency in question. Geno Smith is becoming more experienced and could put his good game/bad game tendency behind him by playing his second good game in a row here as Andy Dalton is not very good so the Bengals may have a lot of trouble scoring points against the Jets very good defence (Ryan's signature). The 2/5 Bengals have a brutal schedule from here on and going 4-4 in their games after this one would be quite an achievement so this is a huge game for them. The 21/10 Jets remaining schedule is no picnic either but is softer and a NY victory would leave both teams at 5-3 which would be fitting as they are roughly equal so despite the 80 cents on the dollar drop in the odds we still have to go with the Jets.
10/24/2013 - (2/1) NY Giants AT (5/12) Philadelphia
The Giants finally won a game last week however they did not look good doing it as their win over Josh Freeman and the Vikings was THE worst game I have ever watched until the end (I had the Giants to win by 19 to 25 points but never got my last FG). It was impossible to tell if Minnesota's defence finally played to their potential of if the Giant offence is still anaemic. Eli did not throw a pick for the first time all year and Hillis looked good for a first game off the shelf but the Giant receivers continued their inconsistant play, due perhaps in part to the salary cap problem in the Big Apple (although you would think with Free Agency looming they would be kicking butt and taking names). The Eagles meanwhile celebrate (sic) the return of Mike Vick after scoring a mere 3 points against a mashed up Cowboy defence. Philadelphia has yet to beat a team with a win in their record at kickoff time this year however they did beat the G-Men in NY during the Giant's losing streak. The Eagles are on course for a 7-9 season (maybe 8-8) as they continue to struggle. All their former coach Andy Reid has done is take a 2-14 team from last year out to a 7-0 start this year. With Webster questionable, Jacobs doubtful, Wilson out and Pierre-Paul playing hurt we still must suggest wagering on the 2/1 Giants as the 5/12 Eagles have under-performing primadonnas at every skill position and a rookie coach with much to learn about getting the right kind of players on the field for him.
Selection: (2/1) New York Giants
Other Selections
10/27/2103 - (1/4) Green Bay AT (3/1) Minnesota
The Packers are down some skill players but are 3 games into what should be at least a 6 game winning streak which should leave them with a stranglehold on the division before Thanksgiving. Eddie Lacy has looked good when he has played and Rodgers is playing very well. Minnesota, not so much. The Viking's performance on Monday Night Football was the worst I have ever seen scoring zero offensive points with Freeman throwing 33 incomplete passes and Peterson running for only 28 yards on 13 carries. The Viking defence actually looked pretty good for a change however that good have been a function of injuries to key NY Giants. It is very hard to tell what Minnesota is up to as the best QB on their roster sits on the bench while the horror show continues. This week Ponder is back in to flounder yet some more, Freeman's head is screwed up (like that's news) and Cassel gets to sit on the bench and look at pictures all day while he collects his 3.7 million dollars (400k more than Freeman [2.000mm] AND Ponder [1.298mm] will earn COLLECTIVELY for 2013). No doubt 1/4 Green Bay is happy, for whatever that reason is, to be facing Ponder instead of Matt and should end up outscoring 3/1 Minnesota by a lot more than the 16 points that the Giants did.
Selection: (1/4) Green Bay Packers
10/27/2103 - (23/10) Miami AT (10/27) New England
Tom Brady. Is he finished? He looked as good as ever when pre-season began however during the regular season he has not performed anywhere near as well as he did even a year ago. Last week he was impressive during New England's first possession (a long TD drive) and only needed to play well for a few more minutes late against the Jets and he didn't. This weekend should be the telling point. The Patriots have been beset by a ridiculous number of injuries to their defensive leaders, offensive specialists and almost every veteran receiver. This summer New England envisioned a DLine led by Wilfork, a LB corp led by Mayo, a smart group of DB's led by Talib, a WR corps led by Amendola, Gronkowski leading the TE's and Washington their primary kick returner. Every single one of them is injured and only Gronkowski, in his first game of the year, played last week. Oh yeah and the other guy who went to jail is missing as well. Brady needed to pick up the ball and run with it. And he didn't. So they lost. The officials seemed to gift the Jets last weeks win over New England calling back the ball from the one yard line near the end of regulation time, failing to review a bounced ball catch (no challenges allowed) in OT and then moving the Jets close enough to make a FG after Chris Jones put his arm around a fellow Patriot during the Jets miss but the game was Brady's to win or lose and he lost it. 23/10 Miami is a very good young team however if Brady fires on all cylinders 10/27 New England will probably score over 40 points for the first time this season and keep their defence off the field a lot in the process thereby making anything Miami does moot. If Brady falters yet again, the Dolphins are good enough to win and will win. Sometimes games come down to one thing. This looks to be one of those games.
Selection: (10/27) New England Patriots
10/24/2013 - (20/27) Pittsburgh AT (23/20) Oakland
Kind of hard to believe that Minnesota beat Pittsburgh in London with the way things have turned around but Minnesota is a decent team when a decent QB is under center creating room for AP to run and Pittsburgh needed find some traction to get things going. Things don't get any easier than this going forward as the Steelers will have a tough time gaining 2 1/2 games on the Bengals given their tough schedule (although Cinncinatti's is even tougher) so to have any hope of reaching the post season, winning this game is a must. It has been a very long time (2002) since the 23/20 Raiders have had a good QB so their woes continue as they look like they must wait at least another year to break 0.500 (11 years and counting). 20/27 Pittsburgh should win in a low scoring affair as Oakland's next QB project Terrelle Pryor gains more experience.
Selection: (20/27) Pittsburgh Steelers
Games to Avoid
10/24/2013 - (5/13) Carolina AT (11/5) Tampa Bay
Tampa beat Carolina in the opening game of the 2012 season to go 1-0 which is the only time the Bucs have had a winning record under Schiano and their woes continue tonight against the Panthers. After scoring some points against some pretty bad defences they face a fairly good Panther "D" that has allowed the second lowest point total (although their bye week skews the numbers) so far and a Carolina team that has won 3 games. Carolina's victories have come over "soft" opposition (5-15 aggregate record) as Cam Newton continues to become less and less effective. The fad of drafting basketball type bodies to play QB in the NFL shows no sign of letting up however despite the fact that Newton, Freeman, Kapaernick etc. continue to devolve as defences hone in on their weaknesses and they all seem to share an inability to excel in the passing game under duress (anyone remember JaMarcus?) plus no team in serious post season contention has one except Seattle (they have a mini-me version and win games mostly with their defensive prowess) and possibly the entirely unpredictable, improbable New York Jets. This match is between 2 teams that are seriously under-performing regularly with the Panthers playing worse than their record suggests. Much like Monday nights game, one team is going to have to win. In games like this the best long term strategy is to bet the team at better than 2/1 but there is no way we would suggest wagering on Schiano's squad with him still the coach.
10/24/2013 - (7/5) Dallas AT (5/8) Detroit
This game looks to be playable however when looked at closely which way do you go? Dallas is 4-3 and playing well and 7/5 is a good price. But Tony Romo is up to his usual tricks and can win (or lose) any game in the 4th quarter. Detroit is 4-3 and is playing well and 5/8 is a reasonable price for a favored dome team at home. But Maatthew Stafford is up to his usual tricks and can win (or lose) any game in the 4th quarter. If one then decides to go with the team at better than even money in this type of situation the superior odds are offset by the inferior winning percentage for visiting teams overall. Conversely the shorter odds on home teams in general offset the superior winning percentages. In the end only the bookmaker turns a profit on these types of games and we do not believe supporting that to be skilful.
10/24/2013 - (6/5) Atlanta AT (5/7) Arizona
This game also looks to be playable at first glance however when looked at closely which way can you go? Atlanta is 2-4 and playing poorly and 6/5 is a decent price. But Matt Ryan turns out to be not much of a QB, especially without his incredibly expensive receiving corps. The Falcons suffer in all other phases of the game because so much salary cap is used up on them, most of whom are not playing. Arizona is 3-4 and playing poorly and 5/7 is an okay price. But Carson Palmer turned out to be not much of a QB years ago, especially without an incredibly expensive receiving corps like he had with the Bengals back then and Larry Fitzgerald is playing hurt.. The Cardinals also suffer in all other phases of the game because so much salary cap is wasted because of terrible previous decisions, terrible current decisions (8mm/year for Palmer? Insnaity!) and Fitzgeralds 18mm but still field a decent defence at least. So in this case there are many reasons to bet against either team. If one then decides to go with the team at better than even money in this type of situation the superior odds are offset by the inferior winning percentage for visiting teams overall. Conversely the shorter odds on home teams in general offset the superior winning percentages. In the end only the bookmaker turns a profit on these types of games and we do not believe supporting that to be skilful.
10/24/2013 - (1/14) San Francisco AT (11/1) Jacksonville
If Chad Henne replicates his best recent game (he came off the bench and passed for over 300 yards and 4 TD's against Houston last year to force OT when Houston was 9-1 on the way to 11-1 before the fall of Schaub et al) and Jones-Drew rushes for over 100 yards like he used to the 11/1 Jacksonville Jaguars will beat the 1/14 San Francisco 49ers handily - Entirely unlikely and yet not impossible which is why we would never suggest wagering on a game with a return of 7 cents on the dollar, that is to say you need to wager $14 to win $1, in almost any situation and certainly not on a team as erratic as SF has been this year.
10/25/2013 - (1/6) Seattle AT (9/2) St. Louis
Just when you think the quarterbacking situation can't get any more ridiculous Kellen Clemens will start for the Rams this weekend. The Rams are not very good with Sam Bradford so we shudder to think how they might play behind Clemens. Seattle meanwhile has a good team at home but is extremely suspect on the road. They lost in St. Louis last year however the Rams featured Bradford (injured), Danny Amendola (now with NE) and Steven Jackson (now with ATL) in that game. Still, the 1/6 Seahawks are the only team to have ever lost to Matt Ryan in a play-off game (in Atlanta), almost lost to Carolina (in Charlotte) and needed to go to overtime in Houston to down the 2-5 Texans this year. The 9/2 Rams are probably for the year however Jeff Fisher can get good short term results out of inferior players (as evidenced by St. Louis's 3-4 record) so we cannot recommed Seattle either at 16 cents to the dollar.
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