The NFL this moment - Week 9

NFL WEEK 9

BYE WEEK:  CARDINALS, BRONCOS, LIONS, JAGUARS, GIANTS, 49ERS

*** Betting Odds courtesy of William Hill, NFL Buddha's favorite British Bookmaker

Long Shot Selection - Woof Woof Go

03 Nov      Atlanta Falcons           14/5                                                         

                Carolina Panthers        2/7                            -7.0                           U 43.5

Clash of the Titans this one is not with Atlanta getting crushed again last week by the underwhelming Carson Palmer and his Cardinals meeting Carolina who got crushed in Week 4 by the very same underwhelming Carson Palmer and his Cardinals 21-6. The 2/7 Panthers are an overwhelming favorite based on being the home team and a couple of extra wins over teams that were on at least a 6 game losing streak when they met.  The long awaited return of Steven Jackson to the 14/5 Falcons last week resulted in 11 carries for 6 yards and three catches for 7 yards for an average of less than 1 yard per touch. Originally tabbed as a game to avoid big time also the way out-of-whack odds make this game playable as Carolina beat 3-5 St Louis the day they lost their starting QB (when is a back-up ready?), 1-7 Minnesota and 0-7 Tampa to get above 0.500 with their other win coming over the Giants in the middle of their 0-6 start. The 4 teams the Panthers beat have an aggregate record of 6-25 going in to this week. It may be skilful to hit the Falcons early in case the odds rationalize.

Selection – Atlanta Falcons       14/5

Primary Selection

03 Nov      New Orleans Saints    10/27                                                         

                New York Jets            23/10                            +5.5                          U 45.5

New Orleans was far more than young Thaddeus Lewis (making his 4th NFL start) could handle last weekend as the Saints scored early and often coming off of their bye and improving to 6-1 for the year. The Jets on the other hand looked like a team believing their own press (capable of beating New England etc.) and instead reverted the their good game/bad game rotation by playing terrible in Cincinnati. 10/27 New Orleans moves into the most challenging part of their schedule with 4 games in the next five weeks against much better than they faced during their 5-0 run to open the season in New York where if the 23/10 Jets play up to their potential and exploit the Saints weaknesses they have every chance of winning and at a pretty nice price.

Selection – New York Jets         23/10                    

Secondary Selection

03 Nov      Kansas City Chiefs      5/9

                Buffalo Bills                 8/5                              +3.5                                     U 40.0

The Chiefs escaped defeat yet again last week as the Browns dropped a fourth down conversion at the Brown’s 40 at the two-minute warning to hold on and go 8-0. With the entire AFC West above 0.500 (except Oakland who is a half game below it at 3-4) KC’s soft schedule so far this year has become self evident meanwhile the Bills finally got well beaten last week by a Saints squad we see headed to the NFC championship game. These teams are much, much closer than their respective records indicate and home field should offset any downgrade from Alex Smith to Thaddeus Lewis so we see this game as a Pick ‘Em whereas 5/9 Kansas City is a solid favorite over 8/5 Buffalo therefore we must select the Bills yet again as home dogs. All of this is pre-supposing Thad starts of course.  No selection if Tuel or Flynn is in.

Selection – Buffalo Bills           8/5***Conditional on Thad Lewis starting 

Tertiary Selections

03 Nov      Baltimore Ravens       20/27                                                           

                Cleveland Browns      23/20                          +2.5                                          U 41.0

Cleveland is at home after coming up one score short of possibly beating the NFL’s last undefeated team to face the puzzling defending champion Ravens whose last four games have been determined by three points or less but have lost three of the four. For the 4th time this year a Browns QB is making his second start (although it was Weeden for two of those four times-long story). Incumbent QB Jason Campbell usually plays his best in his second start off the shelf (127.9, 127.6 and 108.5 passer ratings the last 3 times). Joe Flacco just doesn't have the targets this year and with the trading deadline come and gone goodness knows where some will come from. With 20/27 Baltimore’s running game in tatters hard to say how they can score enough to beat the resurgent 23/20 Browns squad at home.

Selection – Cleveland Browns   6/5 (selected before Odds lowered)

31 Oct       Cincinnati Bengals       5/7                                                           

                Miami Dolphins           6/5                           +2.5                                          U 43.0

This game is the AFC East’s last chance to beat the Bengals as the Bills, Patriots and Jets all went down to them earlier albeit in different fashions. Miami was up 17-3 on New England last week in the third quarter looking to all the world like the team that started 3-0 however 24 unanswered points later it was Tom Brady in the victory formation. The Bengals had their starters resting by the third quarter as Geno Smith played like the rookie that he is in a 49-9 walloping. A lot of (other) people had/have the Bengals as a post season force to be reckoned with however we are still far from convinced that Andy Dalton can lead anyone anywhere. The 6/5 Dolphins have a very good DLine and if they can string two good halves together we see them being able to overcome an in our view overrated 5/7 Cincinnati.

Selection – Miami Dolphins      6/5

03 Nov      San Diego Chargers    10/11

                Washington Redskins  10/11                        +1.5                                       U 51.0

The Chargers are perhaps a better team than the Broncos beating the Cowboys and the Colts fairly easily unlike Denver who should have lost to both. Washington had way more than they could handle last week as a third quarter 21-7 lead tuned into 45-21 thumping in seemingly no time at all. Despite reports of a RGIII resurgence the 10/11 Redskins are no better than the 2-5 team that they are. The 10/11 Chargers on the other hand would no doubt like to take full advantage of their schedule to get back into the post season tournament and to do so must win games like this. Pink Floyd is out for the season but Gates and late-blossoming Eddie Royal (with Brady’s former security blanket and change-of-pace RB Danny Woodhead) are giving Rivers enough targets and in conjunction with some nice running from Ryan Matthews the San Diego offence has regained much of its potency. The Charger defence had no trouble locking down the Colts whereas the Redskins pass and run defences are struggling. This game has the makings of a blow out. We usually stay away from spreads and O/U but can see a triple play here easily (= 6.28/1 Odds).

Selection – San Diego Chargers                10/11                    -1.5                           Over 51.0

Other Selections

04 Nov      Chicago Bears            19/5                                                           

                Green Bay Packers     1/5                       -10.5                                         U 50

Josh McCown takes the helm of a 4-3 Chicago team spiraling down past mediocrity and even if he turns out to be an improvement over Cutler, which would not be too difficult, the 19/5 Bears are not likely to go far with one of the most porous defences in the league. Usually noted for strong “D”, this years model is number 29 in points allowed, one of the few statistics besides wins and losses that means much.  The 1/5 Packers absolutely dominated Minnesota last week (one point losers to Chicago) and will do the same here, at home. The very short price precluded selecting Green Bay but Chicago attracted a lot of early action to move the price up to 20 cents on the dollar making this game playable.

Selection – Green Bay Packers     1/5 

03 Nov      Indianapolis Colts        20/27                                                           

                Houston Texans           23/20                       +2.0                                          U 44.5

Houston is struggling to overcome what they hope was an anomaly early in the season when Matt Schaub melted down and some feel that their one point loss to unbeaten KC the last game before their bye signaled a coming second-half turnaround – the problem is KC really isn’t that great and Casse Keenum is still their starter. 20/27 Indianapolis is a team much like the 23/20 Texans were heralded to be last year, that is on the cusp of being one of the league’s premier outfits and with their win over Denver some wonder if they are already there. Whether they are or they are not, the Colts should dispatch Houston in a straightforward manner unless the Texans were able to turn things around completely during their bye. We believe not.

Selection – Indianapolis Colts  20/27

03 Nov      Tennessee Titans       20/29                                                       

                St. Louis Rams             5/4                        +3.0                                          U 39.5

The Rams lost Sam Bradford and seemingly the chance of any kind of turnaround when they decided to ride out the year with Kellen Clemons and no doubt draft highly yet again next year and then went out against the Seahawks looking like a good team and came up one play short of handing Seattle their second loss of the season. Tennessee comes off their bye week a mere one game out of the race for the second Wild card and a Jake Locker who is no doubt in better shape after his injury with another two weeks to recover under his belt.  The 5/4 Rams are at home but going nowhere fast with their hot and cold play meanwhile the 20/29 Titans have a nice defence and plenty of time to make up for the Fitzpatrick debacle. We see Clemens taking a step back here and Locker one forward.

Selection – Tennessee Titans     20/29

03 Nov      Philadelphia Eagles     23/20                                                           

                Oakland Raiders         20/27                            -2.5                           U 45.0

What ever happened to this “Great Eagles Offence” people have been crowing about all year? The Giants, who couldn’t beat anyone 3 weeks ago, trounced Vick’s Philly as easily as they did Freeman’s Vikings as their bashed and battered defence shut out the Eagles for most of the game giving up 7 when the game was already beyond doubt. The Raiders meanwhile shocked the Steelers last week with Pryor scampering for a 93 yard TD on Oakland’s first play from scrimmage, engineering a 26 yard TD drive following a 3 yard Zoltan Mesko punt (doubtless one reason why Mesko was released this week) and scoring on a conventional drive to go into halftime with a 21-3 lead and then hold on for dear life to win 21-18. 20/27 Oakland is pretty bad but their AFC West schedule helps and with a home win over the 23/20 Eagles who are worse they can join the rest of their division in the 0.500 club.

Selection – Oakland Raiders     20/27

Games to Avoid

03 Nov      Pittsburgh Steelers       23/10                                                         

                New England Patriots   10/27                      -6.5                                           U 44.0

Pittsburgh comes into this game off a foolish loss in Oakland where they let Pryor run for a 93 yard TD the first play, fell behind 21-3 and just ran out of time which is exactly what is about to happen to their season. Even if they ran the table at this point they could still miss the post season at 11-5 so Roethlisberger has declared every game from here a must-win. The problem is, Big Ben doesn’t seem to have the horses this year. In Beantown Brady has struggled all year but the team is 6-2 and on course for another division title in the suddenly powerful AFC East. In the last game before their bye it looks like all of the receivers are a go and most of the balance of the injured are getting close. Most teams play their best against the Patriots and with the Steelers back against the wall Belichick is expecting no less. The major problem with this game is that it means a lot more to the 23/10 Steelers than it does to the 10/27 Patriots but New England is pretty good and at home. Should be a good one to watch.

Selection – GAME TO AVOID

03 Nov      Minnesota Vikings       7/2                                                         

                Dallas Cowboys            2/9                        -10.0                                         U 47.5

Here we have two teams with post season hopes in August that have seriously underachieved, albeit on different levels, so far. Last week the Cowboys gave up 329 yards (that is not a typo) receiving to all-world WR Calvin Johnson as Dallas managed to lose again right at the end despite getting 4 turnovers from the Lions AND getting the ball on downs at the Detroit 31 with 1 min 24 secs left and a three point lead. Minnesota meanwhile looked to be turning things around in London, starting Cassel and beating Pittsburgh, but the following week (while AP mourned the loss of his son) a sub-standard (but as good or better than any from Ponder or Freeman this year) performance by Matt landed him back on the bench where hit sits and earns more than Freeman and Ponder combined (at least from the Vikings) receive. Dallas are massive favorites at home yet AP is still AP and Freeman has played well in the (distant) past (as did Ponder on very rare occasions) so this is a game to avoid in spades.

Selection – GAME TO AVOID

03 Nov      Tampa Bay               15/2                                                           

                Seattle Seahawks       1/12                       -14.5                                        U 39.5

This is the kind of game they make feel-good movies about where the winless Bucs go into a Seahawk stadium where Seattle hasn’t lost since 2011 and pull off a miracle to save their coach’s job. Not bloody likely. It will probably be more like a horror movie just in time for Halloween where Seabirds rip the eyes and flesh from unsuspecting Pirates sending them down into the abyss after lighting Schiano on fire. Still, 1/12 is a foolish bet regardless of circumstance so this is certainly a game to avoid.

Selection – GAME TO AVOID