NFL WEEK 10
Thursday Night Selection
Selection – Game To Avoid
Winner –Minnesota Vikings (6/5)
We wondered which Washington team would show up and fortunately for Minnesota's players it was the terrible version. It must be extremely frustrating for Philip Rivers and the Chargers the way that bad teams like Oakland and Washington play their very best against them and then go on to give up 7 TD's or make a QB like Ponder look good on paper. Leslie Frazier did everything he could to lose this game as well, starting Ponder, refusing to let Cassel throw on first down, throw down the field or throw to Greg Jennings and then when that didn't work he started calling timeouts for Washington. Jennings had to be restrained as his frustration is reaching the crack up point. A star free agent brought in for big bucks, Jennings has 2 TD's from Cassel, who has not been allowed to throw more than 75 times all year, and has otherwise been wasted. How a team can have a back like Adrian and not call a play action pass on first down on long drives in a close game is incomprehensible as Mussgrave must be aware of the concept. The ridiculous thing about it all was the way the whole team reacted when Cassel came in. AP was literally dancing, the defence upped its game at least 2 notches and the sideline was jubilant until Frazier started calling the time-outs for the other team. Zigi the owner is either a moron, which is tremendously unlikely, or the driving force behind the almost every game losses because he is convinced that someone in the draft can put his team over the top. The irony is that he already had that this year by dishing out about 10 million for Cassel and Jennings and left them sitting. It is driving the Viking players crazy.
Winner –
We wondered which Washington team would show up and fortunately for Minnesota's players it was the terrible version. It must be extremely frustrating for Philip Rivers and the Chargers the way that bad teams like Oakland and Washington play their very best against them and then go on to give up 7 TD's or make a QB like Ponder look good on paper. Leslie Frazier did everything he could to lose this game as well, starting Ponder, refusing to let Cassel throw on first down, throw down the field or throw to Greg Jennings and then when that didn't work he started calling timeouts for Washington. Jennings had to be restrained as his frustration is reaching the crack up point. A star free agent brought in for big bucks, Jennings has 2 TD's from Cassel, who has not been allowed to throw more than 75 times all year, and has otherwise been wasted. How a team can have a back like Adrian and not call a play action pass on first down on long drives in a close game is incomprehensible as Mussgrave must be aware of the concept. The ridiculous thing about it all was the way the whole team reacted when Cassel came in. AP was literally dancing, the defence upped its game at least 2 notches and the sideline was jubilant until Frazier started calling the time-outs for the other team. Zigi the owner is either a moron, which is tremendously unlikely, or the driving force behind the almost every game losses because he is convinced that someone in the draft can put his team over the top. The irony is that he already had that this year by dishing out about 10 million for Cassel and Jennings and left them sitting. It is driving the Viking players crazy.
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The NFL season kicks off the second half of the season with Week 10. Things are starting to become more clear as the league rationalizes and teams begin to take on their true colors. Can KC continue to milk their soft schedule and at the same time have one extremely fortuitous break after another continue to manifest as if on cue to keep their improbable streak, now at 9, going? Is Brady poised for another amazing statistical second half after putting up the most points (55) on the decorated Steeler "D" (ranked 2nd in the league against the pass going into the game) in their 80+ year (since 1933) history throwing for over 400 yards with 4 TD's and achieving a 151.8 passer rating going into his bye week with his team 7-2? Will Denver continue to put up huge numbers now that their schedule toughens up? How good (or bad) are Seattle and San Francisco going to prove to be in 2013 as their schedules also become more challenging? Can Phillip Rivers return all the way to his former glory and rally his Chargers past KC and Denver after their amazing starts? Can Eli Manning lead his Giants on yet another playoff run after dropping their first 6 games in a row? Or will Nick Foles/Tony Romo/Bob Griffin pick up the ball and run with it? Can Josh McCown lead the Bears on their own playoff run with Aaron Rodgers hurt and Matt Stafford as unpredictable, good & bad, as ever? Or will Jay Cutler return and ruin everything? Is Carolina just beating up on bad and unlucky teams or can they give Drew Brees and the Saints a real run for their money? With the Patriots, Jets & Dolphins all above 0.500 and Buffalo unlucky not to be has the AFC East regained its former dominance and will they supply both 2013 AFC wildcards? Has Tennessee improved enough to challenge Indy in the AFC South or will Case Keenum duplicate his college form and run the table with the Texans? Can Jason Campbell supply the Browns with enough offence to overtake the sputtering Bengals? Or Joe Flacco in Baltimore? All this and more will be revealed in the next 8 weeks!WEEK 10 PICKS
Long Shot Selection – Woof Woof Go!!!
We were absolutely stunned last week when Case Keenum was playing a wonderful game against the Colts and had done enough to win when the officials stepped in and stole the victory away from Houston and gave it to the Colts. We had selected the Colts so had an interest in them winning nevertheless no one wants to win that way. Let’s keep it (knowing that the Colts are not as good as everyone else thinks) under our hats to perhaps profit some more on it however if it is true that some officials are bought and paid for by gamblers it may be time to do something else (it was that blatant). The Rams continue to vacillate between playing decent and playing terrible without any visible reason. Two weeks ago they were on the Seattle 1 yard line and failed to punch it in for the victory on the last play of the game, a very good effort preceded by a very mediocre one, and last week Clemens fumbled on his own 19 with 3 minutes left to set up the Titan’s winner. The 7/2 Rams can play a lot better than they did three weeks ago while the 2/9 Colts are not as good as they seem to be setting up the potential upset (provided the officials allow it of course).
Selection – St Louis Rams (7/2)
Primary Selection
Last week the San Diego Chargers did just enough to win however an errant call by the replay official took their winning score off the board and they ended up losing in overtime on the road in Washington. Turnovers were the key to the loss for a second time this year with the Chargers margin for error now getting sliced extremely thin. Denver is coming off of their bye after putting it into gear against the very same Redskins at home in the second half and blowing them and their 21-7 lead right out of the water. The AFC West has an incredibly soft schedule this year which has seen the Broncos win 6 games against sub 0.500 opposition and had the other gifted by Tony Romo when all seemed lost to stand 7-1. The 23/10 Chargers beat both teams that gave 10/27 Denver trouble easily but lost 2 of their first three in the final 30 seconds and gifted Oakland and Washington enough points on turnovers to stand at 4-4 only. Denver now moves into the tough part of their schedule and we get to see if they are in fact any good while San Diego must pull out all stops as more losses will likely eliminate them.
Selection – San Diego Chargers (23/10)
Secondary Selection
Selection – Atlanta Falcons (9/4)
Tertiary Selections
The Steelers lost a tough one to the Patriots last weekend as with less than 3 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter they were down only 6 points before New England exploded and put up another 31 points. Pittsburgh now finds themselves at 2-6 and pretty much needing to win out to avoid missing the post season for the second straight year, definitely needing to win their 5 remaining home games HOWEVER this is not your father’s Buffalo Bills. After jettisoning their coach and QB (longtime albatross Ryan Fitzpatrick) this years model with a plethora of young, capable QB’s is 3-6 but could easily be 6-3, losing to Cleveland when EJ Manuel got hurt and no one was ready to take over, a heartbreaker to the Bengals in overtime and on a last second field goal by the Patriots opening day. Last week the Bills 3rd QB of the season, Jeff Tuel, looked pretty good while their defence surrendered only 3 FG’s. Were it not for a couple of rookie mistake pick 6’s by Tuel, making his first ever start, KC would no longer be undefeated. The Bills will have a devil of a time running the table or unseating New England but we expect them to try. Interestingly, whichever QB they go with will most probably give them a chance to win. The 5/9 Steelers have the home field yet 8/5 Buffalo makes much more sense as their defence is playing better than Pittsburgh ’s and their QB surprises are surely behind them.
Selection - Buffalo Bills (8/5)
Selection - Chicago Bears (6/5) ***CONDITIONAL ON JOSH McCOWN STARTING.
Case Keenum played the lights out last Sunday night and had Luck and his Colts soundly beaten when the officials took it upon themselves to make the Colts win/Texans lose. We have never seen anything like it and have to wonder if the officials are indeed bought and paid for by the multibillion dollar sports betting community. If the officials leave this one alone Keenum and his 11/10 Texans (he went to U Houston where he set every NCAA passing record) should annihilate Carson Palmer and his 10/13 Cardinals, and if they don’t we may need to find a new pastime.
Selection – Houston Texans (11/10)
Other Selection(s)
The Big “D” travels to the Big Easy where it will be anything but off of a desperate win over the desperate Vikings. New Orleans, having the relative misfortune of drawing perhaps the leagues strongest division this year in the AFC East, comes out the other side of it 2-2 and stands at 6-2 overall but is still a game and a half behind Seattle (with the exact opposite type of schedule) for NFC top seed. The 23/10 Cowboys are 0.500 over the last 20 years, 20 games – Pick a period, any period – and come in here at 5-4. The 10/27 New Orleans Saints should have no trouble winning the NFC South title unless we are terribly wrong about Carolina and should have no trouble sending Dallas home at 5-5, old familiar 0.500 on the nose.
Selection – New Orleans Saints (10/27)
Games To Avoid
This Florida battle (Jacksonville/Tampa would be better) pits the ridiculously troubled Miami Dolphins against the incredibly troubled Tampa Bay Bucs in yet another MNF match that looked a lot better in August than it does right now. Tampa Bay almost won a game; against NFC top seed Seattle at home no less, last week while the Dolphins got back on track outplaying some (other) people’s idea of AFC title contender Cincinnati. Tannehill must somehow deal with losing an entire side of his OLine and going up against Revis while the Miami “D” will be facing a much improved Mike Glennon who in his 5th start last week put up very good numbers for a 120+ passer rating. Miami looked very impressive beating the Bengals last week but we cannot take them as it is unknown how all the nonsense will affect them. Now that the Buc’s have more-or-less ensured Schiano’s departure they seem to be playing for themselves again however it is also unknown how they will play with Schiano still there.
Selection – Game To Avoid
The 13/15 Bengals have lost most of their luster losing to Miami and falling to 6-3 just in time for a couple of divisional matches that will either open daylight on the pack for them or drag them back into the scrap that is the AFC North personified. In 2 weeks they could be 8-3 and in control but they could also be 6-5 with Cleveland and these very same Ravens only half a game behind with make-up games against Jacksonville & Minnesota respectively. The Ravens have been incredibly inconsistent this year with just a so-so passing game and a 29th ranked running game so they cannot afford to fall behind by much. Fortunately for the Ravens Cincinnati doesn’t score much with Dalton , mediocre at best, under center despite having AJ Green. We would take 1/1 Baltimore over 5/6 Cincinnati if the price were 8/5 or better but it isn’t. We expect the Ravens to win nevertheless.
Selection – Game To Avoid
It just goes from worse to even more worse for the Jaguars as coming off their bye they lose likely their best receiver to rehab and find Chad Henne is still their QB. Meanwhile the Titans have re-ignited their renaissance, climbing back to 0.500 after the Ryan Fitzpatrick debacle, and would be one game out of first place had the referee not engineered the Colt’s comeback on national TV Sunday night. Tennessee is tempting at 1/7 but 14 cents on the dollar does not justify the risk. For example, what would happen if they had to put Fitzpatrick back in?
Selection – Game To Avoid
The 2-6 New York Giants are prohibitive favorites over the 3-5 Charger-beating Raiders? Yes, and with good reason too. Pryor no doubt thought he was something last week after stealing a “W” from the desperate Steelers despite his horrendous 25.7 passer rating while the Eagles, playing like one of the worst teams in the league of late, had Nick Foles who only threw 7 TD passes in a real laugher lying in wait. The 5/16 Giants should be much improved with Jacobs and Webster back after their bye, being at home and desperate. The 13/5 Raiders and Pryor should rebound. Normally we would see it as skilful to select Oakland yet again however Pryor just isn’t good enough. Neither are the Giants at 5/16.
Selection – Game To Avoid
Nick Foles will almost certainly get the start for the 11/10 Eagles after earning a passer rating of 158.3 last week when he threw for 7 TD’s, 0 Int’s and over 400 yards with an almost 80% completion percentage. Seneca Wallace will almost certainly get the start for the 10/13 Packers after earning a passer rating of 53.4 last week when he threw for 0 TD’s, 1 Int and just over 100 yards with an almost 58% completion percentage. To be fair to Seneca he had no reps in practice and hasn’t started a game (Rodgers played the first couple of minutes Monday night) since Week 17 of the 2011 season (he hadn’t played either) nevertheless his throws were terrible. Josh McCown had no trouble picking the Packer defence to pieces and Nick Foles is probably as good as McCown however Nick cannot count on his group of prima-donnas at WR to perform consistently, especially in a hostile environment like Green Bay, Wisconsin, about as far away from the ‘hood as you can get. We can’t see Green Bay winning with Wallace unless Lacy moves up to the next level, which would be superstar BTW, or Wallace ups his game considerably. We can’t trust Philly to perform, especially on the road, against our highest ranked (before Rodgers got hurt) NFC team either.
Selection – Game To Avoid
As already stated, we think very little of the Panthers as the teams they have beaten have terrible records and were playing terrible at the point they faced 11/5 Carolina. 5/13 San Francisco, another team we believe to be overrated, has played extremely well at times however their last 5 games were against less-than-stellar opposition versus many of the teams the Panthers also faced. We cannot see Carolina here and we don’t know where San Fran is at.
Selection – Game To Avoid
Which Washington Redskins team will show up? The one that beat San Diego (with help from the replay official) or the one from the week before that got killed in a game they were winning 21-7 in the third quarter? Meanwhile Minnesota mires in mediocrity where Ponder continues to lose every single game and waste Adrian Peterson’s career away. Reports are that Frazier needs to turn the team around or get fired cannot be true otherwise Ponder would be riding the bench as the Vikings are paying Cassel, who is 1-1 as a starter with a 92.0 passer rating on a 1-7 team, more money than Ponder and Freeman combined. Ponder has yet to crack the 90.0 passer rating threshold this season while Robert Griffin’s numbers are not much better. Washington won last week because San Diego literally threw the game away. This will be an ugly game to watch and certainly one to avoid selecting.
Selection – Game To Avoid
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