Monday Night Football - NFL Buddha

NFL WEEK 11

BYE WEEK:  COWBOYS, RAMS

Special Selection - Best Bet of the Year

11/18/13 New England Patriots (11/10)   AT   Carolina Panthers (10/13)

The 2013 edition of the New England Patriots had the first nine games of the season to get their act together, took a week off and is now taking their act on out on the road to Carolina to kick off the stretch run. Cam Newton, a 6'6" power forward who runs like a running back and has a cannon for an arm, will be leading a Panther's squad riding a five game winning streak while putting up impressive numbers on defence. Many are making much of this, betting the Panthers down to 20/27 early, however we are not convinced that this Carolina team is in the same state, let alone ballpark, as this Patriot team right here, right now.

In 6-3 Carolina"s five wins, they beat Minnesota first BUT The Vikings All World running back Adrian Peterson played despite having his two year old son killed by another man during the week. To say he and the Vikings were distracted would be an understatement. Next Carolina was home to the Rams and Sam Bradford, who seldom plays well. The fact that the Rams are playing worlds better since Bradford went out for the year speaks volumes to the quality of that one. In the third game Carolina went into Tampa Bay where Rookie QB Mike Glennon played his last tightener and the Bucs lost yet again during their own eight game losing streak. Glennon should have won next time out (an OT loss in Seattle) but didn't win his first NFL game until the week after. In game four of the streak the Panthers entertained Atlanta, currently playing the worst football of any team in the NFL and last week Carolina was in San Fran where they won 10-9. This was not the same 49ers squad that went to the Superbowl last year however as after their first game the 49ers have only passed for more than 100 something yards once (221 against Arizona).

7-2 New England on the other hand only has a one game streak. Playing in a much tougher division (currently 8-3 against Carolina's division) and getting extra games against Denver and Houston (instead of Minnesota during a 1-7 start and the Giants during an 0-6 start) for Carolina. New England plays the AFC North (where every team is also playing well now) vs the NFC West (very week for years until last year and fading fast) for the Panthers. New England beat New Orleans (who the Panthers have yet to face despite being in their division) and lost a game in overtime when a nonsense penalty was called at the worst possible moment for the first and second last time ever to the very good New York Jets. In New England's only other loss, with time winding down first Aaron Dobson dropped the go ahead TD pass in the end zone and then for the last minute and a half a freak monsoon rainstorm, rain too heavy to see through, hit and the Patriots could get no further than the Cincinnati 30 before time ran out.

It is our view that although their records, Carolina 6-3 and New England 7-2, are similar they do not compare apples to apples. In reality, this game is one of the few "soft" games on the Patriot's entire schedule (along with earlier victories over Atlanta and Tampa when Tampa was real bad) whereas with this game the Panthers enter the stretch of six tough games on their schedule and a five game losing streak would be entirely possible. When you add the facts that the New England offence is starting to hit it's stride, they get Vereen and Talib back and all the hype surrounding Carolina must surely have them hugely motivated the possibility of a blow out is entirely real. The Panthers are currently ranked second in pass defence. They replaced Pittsburgh who was ranked second until they played New England. Roethlisberger boldly predicted Brady would have the worst day of his career because the Pittsburgh defence was going to play so well. New England beat Pittsburgh 55-31, and that was before they had two weeks to prepare for this game and add more offence (Vereen is a real impact player and is Brady's extra receiver) to get better.

Last week the Pittsburgh Steelers held a decent Buffalo Bills team to 10 points and about 250 total yards (155 passing) much like you would expect the fourth ranked pass defence to do. Problem is they were the second ranked pass defence until the got a load of the New England Patriots the week before. New England's long awaited 2013 offence finally had its coming out party in Week 9 and the result was spectacular. Leaving a multiple TD pass catcher in street clothes (how many teams have that luxury?) it was a much more balanced version of 2007 all over again. Carolina beat San Fran last week 10-9 in a real offensive struggle, as neither team could generate any. The Panthers soft part of their schedule is over and having already lost to the baby in the AFC East they now must face the big kids 3 weeks out of the next 5 with a thrashing by the Saints sprinkled in. The way Tampa looked this will likely be the first of 5 straight losses for the streaky 10/13 Panthers who always seem to lose as soon as they seem capable of trusting. The 11/10 Patriots should get Talib back this week however he probably won't play much if he doesn't have to. Spikes and Hightower have really helped with the run "D" and it will be interesting to see what happens at safety with Gregory hurt. If the Panthers start single-teaming Vellano to try to slow down Carter, Jones and Jones Sir Isaac will get to meet Joe up close and personal more than once. The game has all the makings of a blow-out but beware! Every team tends to save their very best for New England and one game does not make half a season. Don't bet your house, but that condo you are using as an office...

Selection – New England Patriots (11/10) - Best Bet of the Year (unless Denver favoured next week also)