NFL WEEK 11
BYE WEEK: COWBOYS, RAMS
Week 11 is upon us and this is where the rubber meets the rubber tree. If we have been paying attention correctly there are a great many anomalies to take advantage of henceforth. If we were incorrect in our assessments, as with San Francisco last week, we shall pay dearly. We did not like many games last week (and lost most of the games we liked, except for our "trusty" long shot of course) but love some of this week's match-ups and have selected every single game. Here we go.....
Special Selection - Best Bet of the Year
Last week the Pittsburgh Steelers held a decent Buffalo Bills team to 10 points and about 250 total yards (155 passing) much like you would expect the fourth ranked pass defence to do. Problem is they were the second ranked pass defence until the got a load of the New England Patriots the week before. New England's long awaited 2013 offence finally had its coming out party in Week 9 and the result was spectacular. Leaving a multiple TD pass catcher in street clothes (how many teams have that luxury?) it was a much more balanced version of 2007 all over again. Carolina beat San Fran last week 10-9 in a real offensive struggle, as neither team could generate any. The Panthers soft part of their schedule is over and having already lost to the baby in the AFC East they now must face the big kids 3 weeks out of the next 5 with a thrashing by the Saints sprinkled in. The way Tampa looked this will likely be the first of 5 straight losses for the streaky 10/13 Panthers who always seem to lose as soon as they seem capable of trusting. The 11/10 Patriots should get Talib back this week however he probably won't play much if he doesn't have to. Spikes and Hightower have really helped with the run "D" and it will be interesting to see what happens at safety with Gregory hurt. If the Panthers start single-teaming Vellano to try to slow down Carter, Jones and Jones Sir Isaac will get to meet Joe up close and personal more than once. The game has all the makings of a blow-out but beware! Every team tends to save their very best for New England and one game does not make half a season. Don't bet your house, but that condo you are using as an office...
Selection – New England
We are absolutely stunned that our Long Shot Selection is winning a lot more frequently than our Primary Selection as it is expected that they would go the other way nevertheless onwards! The NFL schedule is so bizarre this year that the only undefeated team in the league is the longest shot on the board. Here we have a solid defence taking on an offence that was unstoppable when healthy BUT is healthy no more. My daddy taught me when betting offence vs. defence always go defence (can you say 2007 NY Giants). With 16/5 Kansas City's mighty fine pass rush Manning's ankles have to be a lot more sore after the first quarter. 1/4 Denver hasn't had much of a defence since the last time they saw Elvis (not the one shooting at a color TV) and we are kind of baffled how they stopped Rivers enough to win last week.
Selection – Kansas City Chiefs (16/5)
Primary Selection
The last time these 2 teams met at the end of September the Bengals were playing much better yet Cleveland beat them at a shorter price (19/10 vs. 22/10). We have always been amazed that the fact that when a team is perceived to be in a "must-win" situation the price drops which is counter-intuitive as teams who can afford a loss, (if that is even possible the first 14 weeks) generally have a better record. San Diego responded to tsuch a situation last week by giving the Broncos a garbage TD on Denver's third play from scrimmage then spent the whole game trying (and failing) to overcome it. 11/5 Cleveland is coming off their bye with another two weeks work with the first team for Jason Campbell in the bank to face a 5/13 Bengals team in free-fall. Cleveland is 4-1 in games not started by Brandon Weeden (and his 66.2 passer rating) and with the extra week Campbell should be level headed and ready to take his game to his top level which is even better than when he was voted AFC offensive player of the week in Week 9 (although how he beat out Brady's 400+ yards, 4 TD's and 151.8 rating is not known), These Browns may be the best team to need a QB and RB that I can remember lifetime but Campbell can play extremely well as can Willis who should be both in-shape and rested for the first time all season. It's going to be a long day in the land of WKRP.
Selection – Cleveland Browns (11/5)
11/10/13 Arizona Cardinals (5/13) AT Jacksonville Jaguars (11/5)
11/17/13 New York Jets (21/20) AT Buffalo
Secondary Selections
Arizona stands at 5-4 and believe that they are very much in the hunt for an NFC wild card however a closer look reveals that Matt Stafford handed them their first victory, they beat Tampa when Tampa was at their worst, they beat a Carolina team that was in the middle of a losing streak and also (we believe) possesses an inflated record, an Atlanta squad that was (and is) playing the worst of all 32 teams and then stole one last week from a coach-less Texans team that resulted in Ed Reed being released for venting his disgust. That's how bad losing to Palmer feels. The Jacksonville Jaguars defeat overachieving squad with bad quarterback - The story last week and maybe this week again. Henne has been fairly effective the last three times out as 11/5 Jacksonville looks to equal their win output from last year by putting together a two game winning streak while 5/13 Arizona could conceivably lose every game the rest of the way starting with this one.
Selection – Jacksonville Jaguars (11/5)
11/17/13 Washington Redskins (8/5) AT Philadelphia Eagles (5/9)
Nick Foles is a sensation presently racking up 16 TD's without an interception and achieving a passer rating of 132.5 for the season so far while posting a 3-1 record as a starter. Is he that good? Bobby Griffin's stats are way down from his rookie year across the board, except for interceptions which have more than doubled (2.7% up from 1.3%), as the now 3-6 Redskins played so bad on defence last week that they made Ponder's stats look good. Are they that bad? The answer to both questions is no. Until Foles improbable outburst and the Redslins second half collapse in Denver we had the Eagles finishing last in the division with Washington and the Giants fighting over first (Romo always collapses in December). Without even one bona fides play off contender the NFC East is probably the weakest division in the NFL but the teams are fairly even. Might be a different story if the 5/9 Eagles could win at home but they haven't yet. The 8/5 Redskins have shown flashes and are due for a sixty minute effort after Cassel came in, handed off to Peterson for the go ahead touchdown and kept the ball away from Washington for most of the fourth quarter until Washington ran out of time themselves close to the Viking goal line.
Selection - Washington Redskins (8/5)
Tertiary Selections
The bloom is off the rose for the 2013 Buffalo Bills mainly because rookie coach Marrone backed the wrong horse Week 1 and started EJ Manuel over Jeff Tuel and has committed to sticking with him. Last week Manuel showed he was back to square one, actually square minus one as he played worse than he did against New England giving the Steelers a very easy victory. The Jets on the other hand have only one weakness, their version of EJ named Geno. Smith was alternately terrible one week and okay the next earlier but has seemed to have found a place where he is no longer hurting his team, taking what is there and letting T. Rex's very good defence do the rest. The 4/5 Bills have a very good defence of their own but the 21/20 Jets are one of our favourites for an AFC wildcard (assuming they don't catch New England) have the advantage in going with the more experienced rookie (is that an oxymoron or am I just a moron)? We don't expect either to last but then we can't believe that Mark Sanchez is still a part of any conversation.
Selection - New York Jets (21/20)
11/17/13 Atlanta Falcons (4/5) AT Tampa
11/17/13 Detroit Lions (4/5) AT Pittsburgh Steelers (21/20)
The Atlanta Falcons have been a huge disappointment the last three weeks since beating Tampa Week 7 by losing badly to unimpressive teams. That a top seeded team from last year can fall so far is a testament to how little impact the uninjured.players actually had, especially Ryan. The best player on the team right now is old man Tony G who had that dubious distinction in KC for too long. Tampa Bay on the other hand is really coming along behind Mike Glennon who make look awkward and gangly but throw a beautiful pass. We're sure that the Buc's still want to get rid of their coach they but have contracts to think about as well and turned it on impressively on MNF. Glennon could be the Nick Foles of this years crop of rookie QB's and could end up saving Schiano's job thereby continuing his living hell. No one said the NFL was fun.
Selection - Tampa
The Detroit Lions with Matthew Stafford have been lulling everyone into a false sense of security and then losing when all were sure that they would win and open daylight all too often. Perched alone atop the NFC North (I wanted to write Central) the Lions once again control their own destiny. Will they take advantage of it or get drunk on success and crash their dad's car when their parent's aren't watching? Pittsburgh meanwhile is, despite getting trashed by the Patriots, in an almost unbelievable position. If Cleveland repeats and beats the Bengals this weekend, a win by the Steelers in this game would put them one game back in the loss column with two divisional matches coming up against Cleveland and Baltimore and could be tied for first place by December 1st after starting out 0-4 and then 2-6. Calvin Johnson is of course outstanding for the 4/5 Lions but the 21/20 Steelers defence will shut down Stafford enough to pull this one out at home.
Selection - Pittsburgh Steelers (21/20)
11/14/13 Indianapolis Colts (20/29) AT Tennessee Titans (5/4)
11/17/13 San Diego Chargers (4/5) AT Miami Dolphins (21/20)
Selection - San Diego Chargers (4/5)
11/17/13 San Francisco 49ers (7/5) AT New Orleans Saints (5/8)
Conditional Selections
11/17/13 Minnesota Vikings (5/1) AT Seattle Seahawks (1/7)
Games to Avoid
Last week the Tennessee Titans became the first team to lose a game to Jacksonville this season. They did it by putting Ryan Fitzpatrick in at quarterback. It is hard to believe but Fitzpatrick has won 23 of his starts in the NFL. Of course he has lost the other 43. One year he won as many starts as he lost but he is past his prime (he is in his 30's) now and unlikely to win another. This is good news for the Colts who have needed good fortune to stay ahead of the Titans. 20/29 Indianapolis should have lost three of their last four however for some reason the officials ensured that they beat Houston. 5/4 Tennessee has turned into the Titanic with Fitzpatrick under centre, a quarterback who looks like he is playing oh so much better than he really is, a veritable optical illusion that fooled Buffalo for a long time, and are unlikely to exceed a 6-10 record unless they pick up their own version of Case Keenum or Mike Glennon or Thaddeus Lewis real quick however on September 25th of 2011 Fitzpatrick did start and lead his Buffalo Bills to a victory over the ultimately 13-3 super bowl contestant New England Patriots, the last time he started and beat a good team, and we are going to take a shot and go with him in this one.
Selection - Tennessee Titans (5/4)
Other Selections
The Miami Dolphins had a decent season going until their offensive line broke down. Miami brought in Bryant McKinnie to replace Martin and then all the nonsense ensued, meanwhile poor Ryan Tannehill, the ultimate loser in all the shenanigans, is back there getting killed. Not sure if Tannehill is the real deal but it looks like we won't find out this year. The Chargers have been a disappointment so far and the question begs to be asked if they are not for real either. They looked like a playoff team while spanking Indy and Dallas but recent losses to Washington and Denver really put their actual quality in question. They do have excuses but talk is cheap and whiskey, in this instance the post season, costs money. At 4-5 they are almost mathematically eliminated from catching Kansas City and realistically not going to do it so a wild card is the best they can hope for. It will be easier for the 4/5 Chargers to right the ship than for the 21/20 Dolphins to manufacture a new offensive line by Sunday.
Last week Colin Kaepernick completed his re-entry from the heights of over-achievement plummeting to less than 100 yards passing and no points. The 49ers did manage three field goals but were outplayed by a what we believe to be mediocre Carolina squad soundly. When an opposing QB makes Cam Newton look like the better passer you don't expect them to be from a play off team and San Fran will likely continue their descent and miss the post season altogether this year. The New Orleans Saints conversely lost twice to the best of the AFC East, perhaps the leagues strongest division this year but otherwise have dominated their opposition. We see the 5/8 Saints running the table from here and earning top seed in the NFC (with the injury to Rodgers costing the Packers) with 7/5 San Francisco continuing their fade into obscurity.
Selection - New Orleans Saints (5/8)
11/17/13 Baltimore Ravens (5/4) AT Chicago Bears (20/29)
11/17/13 Oakland Raiders (5/2) AT Houston Texans (1/3)
It seems as though we are not the only ones who believe Chicago has a better chance to win without Mrs. Cutler and her gaffes despite relying on career back-up Josh McCown. McCown's performances are either a real tribute to Mark Trestman, the sign of an underrated career, or probably a little bit of both. It goes to show that a smart guy with a decent arm can go far provided he is smart enough not to turn the ball over at the exact wrong time (unlike Jay). Last week Trestman waited too long to put McCown in as Josh generated the touchdown but the trick play for the two point conversion attempt failed. The 20/29 Bears are significant favourites over a 5/4 Baltimore Raven team that won twice last week (a regular time win that James Ihedigbo gave back and then in OT). Baltimore has had a tough road schedule thus far, having yet to win a road game this season including a five interception day for Flacco in Buffalo, and will be gunning for their first with the rookies in their re-vamped defence starting to meld with the veterans. McCown will likely have his limitations exposed here however with his full compliment of competant receivers they may not be too limiting. Five of the past six Ravens games were decided by three points or less (six points in the other game) and this one figures to be just as close. If the Bengals and Lions lose as expected this games winner will also win a share of first place, at least in the loss column. The Bears have played much better defence at home and the Ravens have had trouble winning on the road so in a game this close we shall let home field be the determining factor.
Selection - Chicago Bears (20/29)
11/17/13 Green Bay Packers (2/1) AT New York Giants (5/12)
A month ago if you suggested the 0-6 Giants would be big favourites over the 4-2 Packers in this game you may have gotten locked up but that shows how valuable Aaron Rodgers is to the Packers. To be fair to the rest of the team mind the Packers should have gotten a young kid to learn the back-up role the day Flynn left town instead of throwing in poor Scott Tolzien, a third year cast off from the QB poor San Francisco 49ers (less than 100 yards passing last week with no points and an interception against questionable Carolina) when Seneca Wallace (goodness knows what the Pack was thinking there) threw in the towel last week. Flynn should be ready to go next week so it is literally now or never if Tolzien is going to make an impression. The Giants meanwhile won their third in a row last week and amazingly will be playing Dallas for a share of first place next week in they can win again here. Eli Manning did not play well last week (understatement) but the Giants did with back-of-the-week Andre Brown going over 100 and Manning's one TD pass, being one more than Pryor threw, resulting in the win. It seems as if Manning need only play decent for the 5/12 Giants to take advantage of a very rare Packer game without their starter (starter has missed very few starts since turn of the century) while 2/1 Green Bay will be missing their perennial MVP's leadership. Still not comfortable with New York being a big favourite in any game but it seems that good fortune has come their way yet again.
Selection - New York Giants (5/12)
It seems as though Gary Kubiak is an even bigger idiot than we thought as NFL.com reported this week that he will coach this Sunday and he is waiting for Keenum to stumble so he can put Matt Schaub back on the field. Doubtless the last thing an emerging young QB wants to hear, Kubiak is staking his career on a never was in Schaub meanwhile teams like Denver, New England and New Orleans, all with QB's in their mid-to-upper 30's, would be crazy not to want to put a guy likle Keenum in their system, preparing for the inevitable. The kid could be that good as he certainly was in college. The 1/3 Texans welcome this year's edition of the 5/2, bungled and botched Oakland Raiders to Redneckville with Terrelle Pryor perhaps ready to pop one after four games with an average passer rating of 42. Or not. Pryor just isn't very good and despite the nonsense with Kubiak Houston will most probably get their third win of the season here.
Selection - Houston Texans (1/3)
Conditional Selections
Our spider senses are jangling here to take the 5/1 Minnesota Vikings over the 1/7 Seattle Seahawks as opposing forces are in play. Seattle is not as good as their record however that is a moot point and they find themselves at 9-1, their main competition (San Fran) in meltdown and their bye coming up right after this game. It is only human nature that they rest on their laurels a bit and they must be tempted to scratch some of their banged up guys to give them twice as much time to rest and heal up for their stretch run. The Minnesota Viking players meanwhile were like a pent up dog last week just straining to cut loose and perform in a meaningful game and when Ponder went out the entire team elevated their game and AP started reeling off some beautiful runs as Cassel brought the threat of down the field passes into the game with him. Every NFL player has a tremendous amount of pride, most of them being accustomed to being the best player on all of their teams prior to the NFL, and Minnesota is no exception. The problem is twofold. Somebody did not want to be proven wrong about Ponder to the point of distraction which is why the quarterback fiasco exists in the first place. Sure Cassel did not play great against Carolina but even when you take away the 2 TD's his interceptions handed to the Panthers, the Vikings were still outscored 21-10 and Matt did complete over 75% of his other 42 passes. Why Musgrave continues to call all those short passes with a back like Peterson, who got a whole three carries, one of them a 31 yard outburst, in the second half of that game is mystifying, especially when you consider the extraordinary circumstances surrounding that game. Further adding to the coaching gaffes, the second part of the problem, Head Coach Frazier was calling time-outs for Washington during their attempt at a game winning drive last week and seems to be doing everything in his power to lose every single game. Notwithstanding all of this we are going to go tentatively with the Vikings conditional upon Matt Cassel starting. We did call the Rams outright last week you know?
Selection - Minnesota Vikings (5/1) - (conditional upon Matt Cassel starting)
This is the time of year to play. Almost every team is still in the hunt, no one has clinched anything and all 32 teams have established enough of a track record to enable skilful selections. Many favourites passed over in earlier weeks are playable right now and most probably up to and including the Week 13 games.
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