Saturday, August 30, 2014

NFL 2014 - A look ahead

Same Game, Different Year

The 2014 NFL Draft, off-season and preseason are all in the books and it is now time to turn our attention to what the regular season is going to hold and how that will set up the post season.  First, let’s take a look at all of the changes from a divisional perspective.

Predictions – Play Off Teams

AFC East – New England Patriots               NFC East – Philadelphia Eagles
AFC West – San Diego Chargers                  NFC East – New York Giants
AFC West – Denver Broncos                        NFC West – Seattle Seahawks
AFC North – Pittsburgh Steelers                 NFC North – Green Bay Packers
AFC North – Baltimore Ravens                    NFC North – Minnesota Vikings
AFC South – Jacksonville Jaguars            NFC South – New Orleans Saints

NFC East

Teams have seldom repeated as divisional champs here in recent years for a number of reasons, many of which no longer hold true. Weak ownership in Washington has led to an unmitigated disaster in the nation's capital and it seems that the hits just keep on coming. Danny Boy threw his sage, seasoned and savvy head coach over the side in favor of his Prima donna, (Italian for "first lady") quarterback Bobby Griffin (Booby Griffon the tird here-forward) and replaced him with a virginal baby-faced rookie head coach as his first order of business. He quickly followed this by signing the most troublesome diva (derived from the Italian noun diva, a female deity) wide receiver available, NegroSean Jackson, mere days removed from being thrown over the side himself by rookie head coach phenom Chip Kelly. The Redskins were able to force Orapako to stay via the franchise tag but their defence, and I use that term very loosely, has no discipline (B. Merriweather just got suspended for 1/8th of the season for a pre-season hit) looks to be the worst in the league this year. That, coupled with one of the worst (if not THE worst) starting QB's in the league, has the Redskins looking like the bottom team in both the division and the conference (and perhaps even the league), whom we see coming in at 3-13 or worse... Speaking of bad defence, the Dallas Cowboys managed to go 8-8 with last year despite fielding the worst defence of the season, if not the decade, and seem to be caught in some sort of zero sum stasis wherein the more things change, the  more they stay the same. Why not 8-8 for the 4th straight year? The New York Giants seemed to put together enough of an offensive line to get back-on-track to go 7-3 after an 0-6 start last year however they suffered more attrition in that area this spring and summer. We expect the G-Men to come on strong after yet another slow start and make a run for at least the Wild Card in December. If they can get into the play-off, anything can happen. This leaves the Eagles winning the division back-to-back. We expect Chip Kelly's offence to make a second year leap of its own as Kelly jettisons the bad fits such as NegroSean Jackson, develops pass catching talents such as NegroSean McCoy and for the defence to show enough improvement so that Philadelphia can conceivably contend for a play off bye in 2014.

AFC East

Diametrically opposite to the NFC East, the AFC East seems to have the same Champion for years on end. EJ Manuel (BJ Manual here-forward), the AFC's version of Booby Griffon the tird, continues to deteriorate as his lack of maturity and mental toughness become increasingly obvious. The now rudderless defence, missing Jarius Byrd and now Kiko Alonzo, is forced to count on players such as Patriot castoff Brandon Spikes as what was very recently asset has turned into a major liability, leaving the Bills too looking like the bottom team in both the division and the conference (and perhaps even the league), whom we see coming in at 3-13 or worse.  The Miami Dolphins continue to mimic the Dallas Cowboys and we expect both of them to. Finish up at 8-8 without seriously challenging while the New York Jets have a front seven but no secondary, a wide receiver and running back but no quarter back. With the Patriots having won the division title 10 of the past 12 years another one seems likely however the real question is which first round bye will they get?

NFC West

As the bard wrote all those years ago, much ado about nothing? In 2013 the NFC West had a soft schedule, the softest in recent memory in fact, with the result being top seed in the play off, two play off teams and three teams finishing with double digit wins. The AFC West also had a very soft schedule and sent three teams to the play off. This year they play each other with the NFC East making up the rest of the NFC West’s schedule. Seattle should be able to best handle the switch as good defence tends to win out however the Seahawks defence seemed a lot better than it actually was so it is hard to say just how got they are on an absolute basis. They will be able to repeat as division champs with relative ease. The Rams do not have a quarterback for the second consecutive year. The Cardinals are already missing key players and still have Carson Palmer at QB. The 49ers have had enough turnover on defence to change over from being known as Singletary’s defence to known as Harbaaahs defence, Kaepernick was only able to pass for 100 and something yards per game last season, Frank Gore is in his 30’s and the offensive line, the part that showed up at least, is in decline. In short, the window has closed. Once Harbaaah gets fired January of 2015 they will start to rebuild and may become relevant again around 2017.

AFC West

The San Diego Chargers seemed to be putting it all together late last season and with the return of Pink Floyd look poised to unseat Denver. The Broncos off-season moves are poised to back-fire greatly, Manning’s arm and legs are completely shot and the AFC East can get after the opposition’s quarterback if nothing else. Kansas City has a real NFL schedule this year, Alex Smith at QB and lost a lot of starters. The Raiders are going with Matt Schaub. It is all over in Denver. Talib. Ware and Manning will not be able to get through a 16 game schedule and Ward is more dirty than good. The Chiefs seem bound to go back to 4-12 (or 2-14) and no one knows what the Raiders are doing, especially the Raiders. That leaves Mr. Bolo Tie, who will benefit by being unshackled from Wisenhunt who is off to wreck another franchise, battling for the second play off bye.

NFC North

The other division to face the AFC East this year, the NFC North, led by the Green Bay Packers last year, does not stack up very well against them.  The AFC East thrives on quarterback pressure and stifling the run (except the Patriots) so Chicago and Detroit are in for long seasons there. The Vikings on the other hand seem to have finally put it all together. Matt Cassel, responsible for all 5 Vikings victories last year and on the bench for 8 losses, is the perfect fit for Norv Turners offence starring Adrian Peterson. Cassel’s strongest asset is throwing the ball deep off of a strong play-action game which Peterson sets up perfectly. Jennings, Patterson and Wright are all in line for 1000 yard+ seasons and Peterson is poised to make another runs at the rushing record. Zimmer is a very good defensive coach with a solid framework to start with so we see the Vikings as the Dark Horse in the NFC this year. Green Bay looks good to repeat themselves with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacey and the inevitable cast of good receivers starring Jordy Nelson. With Julius Peppers igniting the defence, the Packer-Viking one-two punch should be formidable.  Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler have had innumerable opportunities to shine but never have. The Bears may have the worst defence in the league yet again and the Lions isn’t much better. We expect green Bay and Minnesota to go 26-6 collectively with the Bears and Lions going 8-24.

AFC North

The Steelers get the 49ers schedule from last year (NFC & AFC south) AFC style, as do the Bengals, however Cincinnati gets the Patriots and Denver when Pittsburgh gets the Jets and the Chiefs. That two game shift alone would put them on almost even terms however Pittsburgh has improved while the Bengals look like they have gone the other way, lost their defensive leader and lost their momentum. Andy Dalton has proven that he cannot perform under pressure and he will be under it all year long in 2014. The Ravens seem to have turned the train around but still lack the weapons to fully re-assert themselves while Cleveland continues to flounder on the shores of Lake Erie. Brian Hoyer does not look recovered from ACL surgery while Johnny Football has not looked ready for prime time. The Browns should go with Manziel (his ego can take the early punishment) but will instead destroy Hoyer in a misguided Attempt to shield Manziel. Cleveland still cannot do anything right. Baltimore will not need to improve much to contend with the Bengals for a wild card as if they are close in December we expect Dalton to drop three of his last four games. Pittsburgh has an easier schedule than either of them and could even be in the mix for the second bye.

NFC South

The Atlanta Falcons plummeted to the bottom of their division last year when their lines failed and injuries beset the offence. The lines have not gotten any better. Tampa Bay fell apart under Greg Schiano last year. Lovie Smith has made some headway changing over to his kind of team but has not gotten anywhere near far enough along to contend. Carolina had an unforeseen winning streak last year that carried them all the way to a playoff bye before dismantling their offence and having their QB operated on. Seeing all this, the New Orleans Saints made some bold moves and are making a run at the titles this year on both sides of the ball. We believe in this program and see the Saints in the NFC Championship game taking on the winner of the Green Bay-Minnesota battle taking on the winner of the Green Bay-Minnesota battle.

AFC South

Jacksonville has been making all the right moves and if they did not have so far to come back from they might have contended this season. Houston did not look like they had as far to go and although there defence looks to be coming around they are not going anywhere with Fitzpatrick under center. They may be prepared to write off another season to go after the QB they want in next year’s draft while Clowney develops – Hard to tell what is really going on down there. Tennessee seems lost and keeps piling one bad move on top of another. Ken Wisenhunt is bound to make matters worse. All this leaves the Indianapolis Colts. Perhaps one of the reasons Andrew Luck has looked so good is because this division has been so bad. Having thrown 7 picks in his last two non-preseason games luck doesn’t inspire me. His supporting cast is very old, Trent Richardson stinks. Rather than select a team that we like as little as the Colts we are going to go with Jacksonville and hope that they put Bortles in at some point when they realize they can take the division. After all, 8-8 may very well do it down there this year.


No comments:

Post a Comment