NFL WEEK 1
BYE WEEK: NONE
As always, NFL Buddha looks at each game as a value proposition and selects a team if it seems that at the odds posted (courtesy of William Hill, Britain’s premier maker of book) a wager makes sense over the long term
Primary Selection
| Minnesota Vikings |
33/20
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| St. Louis Rams |
10/19
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The Minnesota Vikings went to the post season in 2012 on the back of All Day but floundered last year as Christian Ponder was unable to leave the field with a lead. Matt Cassel drove the New England Patriot train to an 11 win season and took a bad Kansas City team to the post season before breaking his throwing hand. We saw last year that the hand is fine, and so is Peterson, Patterson, Jennings and the rest of the Viking offence. New coach Zimmer, an excellent defensive mind, should be able to make some improvement with the defence having shed liability Jared Allen and brought in some interesting new faces. The St. Loius Rams have put together a pretty good defence with an excellent DLine however they had a ridiculously easy schedule last year and they have no quarterback. It is hard to see them winning more than six games this year and it is hard to see them scoring enough points behind Shaun Hill to win this one. 33/20 is very generous on the Vikings and we recommend the maximum bet for a Primary Selection.
Selection: 3 units at 33/20 on Minnesota Vikings
Woof Woof Go - Long Shot Special
| Buffalo Bills |
5/2
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| Chicago Bears |
1/3
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The Chicago Bears committed long-term to Smokin' Jay Cutler in the off season to the tune of $50 million guaranteed. This is not going to go well. The Bear defence was terrible last year and letting Julius Peppers go in favor of Jared Allen was an incredibly bad idea. Allen may indeed get his 10 sacks however the other 1,000 odd snaps are the problem. Defence has been the one bright spot in Buffalo recently and although the loss of Alonzo will hurt their ability to get after Cutler early could be the determining factor in this game. EJ Manuel is worse than Cutler, no mean feat there, however he almost beat the mighty Patriots out of the gate last year and the Bills should be able to run at will all day long setting up some play-action in the second half. Getting 5/2 against Cutler is always an attractive proposition and no doubt profitable in the long term.
Selection: 1 unit at 5/2 on Buffalo Bills
Secondary Selection(s):
| Green Bay Packers |
2/1
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| Seattle Seahawks |
5/12
|
The Seattle Seahawks were all but unbeatable at home the past two seasons however the weather has played a big part in that. Last year they were at home mostly to the teams that were playing the worst football in the league before the weather turned bad. The Seahawks look to have lost more than they added over the off season while the Packers, with a very healthy Aaron Rodgers under center, seem to have added a lot more than they lost. We are expecting Capers to have a solid plan in place to stop Lynch and if he does, Russell Wilson is going to need to pass for more than 230 yards, a feat he accomplished only five times last season (three of which were against the Jags, Falcons & Titans). This game looks to be extremely close with perfect weather conditions so 2/1 on the Packers looks like a gift.
Selection: 2 units at 2/1 on Green Bay Packers
| San Diego Chargers |
7/5
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| Arizona Cardinals |
5/8
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The Arizona Cardinals shared the super-soft schedule the rest of the NFC West enjoyed with four of their ten wins coming against teams that won four or less games last season and seven of the ten over teams below 0.500 while the Chargers were knocking off four playoff teams and six of nine teams that finished at 0.500 or higher on the way to the post season themselves. Philip Rivers is undergoing a renaissance of sorts and now having shed Wisenhunt (we like Kenny not at all) should be freer to air it out. Pink Floyd is back giving bolo tie guy three excellent targets outside to go with Gates and Woodhead inside while Arizona still has Carson Palmer. At 7/5, the Chargers are way too attractive to pass up.
Selection: 2 units at 7/5 on San Diego Chargers
Tertiary Selection(s):
| Oakland Raiders |
21/10
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| New York Jets |
2/5
|
The New York Jets, the NFL's most dysfunctional family (more-so than even San Francisco), have hamstrung T Rex with a terrible secondary and one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. It is a credit to Ryan that he won 8 games last season. Alas, it looks like they passed the critical mass this season and a meltdown looks iminent. The Raiders on the other hand are moving in the other direction. Derek Carr is likely already a better quarterback than Geno Smith, Oakland's running game looks good (at least until injuries hit but they have not yet), James Jones is going to catch some balls and they are fast (and old). Eric Decker is a great third down receiver but we do not think Smith will be able to hit him enough to make that matter. We do not think you will be seeing the Jets at 2/5 again this season wheras the Raiders at 21/10 look enticing here.
Selection: 1 unit at 21/10 on Oakland Raiders
| San Francisco 49ers |
5/11
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| Dallas Cowboys |
9/5
|
The demise of the San Francisco 49ers started the day Harbaaah took the reigns - It just took this long for Singletary's team to disapate to the point where it was no longer effective. JJ Watt just became the highest paid defender in the history of the league while the guy Harbaaah selected in his stead starts a very lengthy suspension. The Cowboys are a mess themselves but we believe that Romo will be the difference as we think almost nothing of Kaepernick and his 100 and something yards passing per game (29th in the league last year). Gore is over 30, Boone will probably need a game and the 9/5 Cowboys are playing their home opener.
Selection: 1 unit at 9/5 on Dallas Cowboys
| Indianapolis Colts |
13/5
| ||
| Denver Broncos |
5/16
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The Broncos showed their true colors against the Seahawks in February. Manning is finished. Welker is out. Decker is gone. Who is going to make those third down catches and take the huge hit to move the chains/ Saunders/ I don't think so. The Broncos will miss Decker, especially as Welker fades away, a lot more than people realize just yet. And the veterans they spent so much money to get are all defective - Ware's arms are gone, Talib's Hip (and Brain) is screwed and Ward is a lot more dirty than he is good. The Colts meanwhile seem to have Mannings number. We expect Indy to open the season 3-1 and then fade away and ultimately miss the post season but hope to catch them at 13/5 in their opener.
Selection: 1 unit at 13/5 on Indianapolis Colts
| New York Giants |
2/1
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| Detroit Lions |
5/12
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Selection: 1 unit at 2/1 on New York Giants
Other Selection(s):
| New England Patriots |
1/2
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| Miami Dolphins |
17/10
|
Last year the Patriots went 12-4 when decimated with injuries at pretty much every position except quarterback and safety while the Miami Dolphins had every chance to make the post season but the worst OLine in football could not stave of the Jets front seven in the season finale. The Patriots are not yet running on all cylinders but look to have plenty enough horsepower on both sides of the ball to beat Miami off the line in 2014 and 1/2 is plenty enough attractive in this situation.
Selection: 1 unit at 1/2 on New England Patriots
| New Orleans Saints |
5/7
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| Atlanta Falcons |
6/5
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The New Orleans Saints fell short in some areas last year, all of which have been addressed, and loom as our favorite to win the NFC this year while Atlanta looks to have the same problems in the trenches that they suffered in 2013. We see 5/7 as a very attractive price on a team that can get off to a fast start..
Selection: 1 unit at 5/7 on New Orleans Saints
| Cincinnati Bengals |
21/20
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| Baltimore Ravens |
4/5
|
We look to the Ravens to turn the tables on the Bengals this serason and replace them as a play off team. We see this as the year that Andy Dalton comes back to earth during the regular season. The Raverns look to be as good bet at 4/5...
Selection: 1 unit at 4/5 on Baltimore Ravens
Games to Avoid:
| Tennessee Titans |
6/4
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| Kansas City Chiefs |
10/17
|
The Chiefs will probably win but at 10/17 is does not seem worth the risk.
| Washington Redskins |
7/5
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| Houston Texans |
5/8
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When a 2-14 team is favored with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center it is not a game you want to bet real money on. The Redskins are that bad though .
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
7/2
| ||
| Philadelphia Eagles |
1/5
|
Jacksonville looks a lot better this year but does not seem that much better with Henne while 1/5 is too short a price for us.
| Cleveland Browns |
12/5
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| Pittsburgh Steelers |
5/14
|
| Carolina Panthers |
23/20
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| Tampa Bay Bucs |
20/27
|
When I bet a 4-12 team to beat a 12-4 team I want better than even money. Carolina actually should be the play at 23/20 but we do not trust Newton.
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