NFL WEEK 7
BYE WEEK: EAGLES, BUCCANEERS
After an entire off-season of tracking every move by every team we were somewhat shocked at the end of Week 3 to realize how little all of that has to do with how a team is going to perform on any given Sunday. Two factors appear to be responsible for the majority of this unpredictability:
1) The NFL game is so emotionally charged that the emotional mindset of key players, unknown to their coaches and wives never mind the betting public, that it can overwhelm talent levels by a wide margin;
2) The ebb and flow of any team is transient and constantly in a state of flux: A team like the Cowboys, on paper to have the worst defence in the league for a second straight year, can play terrible one week then run off 5 straight convincing victories. If the teams do not know where they are at, how can we?
Notwithstanding all of this, the challenge remains: How do we wrestle a profit out of what we do know? At NFL Buddha, our basic tenant is to bet games where the return is better than even money and then not lose more bets than we win. Rather then looking at games in isolation, we are going to try to look at each division, try to approximate what is going on there and then extrapolate that to the individual games.
If you look at our Playoff Picture page (we will update it after Week 9) you will see that, so far at least, we had a fairly accurate view of the Big Picture going in. In the AFC, San Diego is in front for a playoff bye and the Patriots are rounding into form, the AFC North is in flux and the Browns are definitely in the hunt for a wild card, the Texans still have a shot at the AFC South crown and the Broncos are in line for the other Wild Card. While our predictions of the demise of the Bengals and Colts may have been premature, there are still a lot of games left and one of them must lose this week as they face each other. If it is the Bengals, it will be their fourth straight week without a win.
Over in the NFC the Eagles and Cards are holding down the top seeds as predicted, Philadelphia is doing what we expected in the NFC East, Arizona continues to lead in the NFC West, The Packers are there in the NFC North where, alas, we did not expect Minnesota to lose All Day and their QB and the NFC South is still very much up for grabs as after 6 weeks no team has won more than 3 games. The Seahawks are holding down the Wild Card we envisioned whereas the Cowboys are currently well ahead of the Falcons for the other one.
So things are pretty much going as expected and yet our winning wager percentage is not corresponding. Let us see what we can do about that.
AFC East
In Week 7 the Jets are at the Patriots prime time Thursday night, the Dolphins are in Chicago while Buffalo has Minnesota visiting. We think that the "Experts" seriously under-estimate this division, mostly because of EJ Manual, Geno Smith and Ryan Tannehill. Buffalo will most probably be a big favorite (1/2) over Teddy Bridgewater's Vikings (2/1) and New England even moreso (2/7) over the Jets (7/2). The bet looks to be the 13/8 Dolphins over the Bears. Coming off a final drive loss to the re-surging Packers (nobody is going to confuse Smokin' Jay Cutler with Aaron Rodgers) Miami will be pushing hard to get back to 0.500 while the Bears are expected to return to the stumbling and bumbling that will define their 2014 season. Bet the Dolphins.
AFC North
The most "fun" division in the AFC this season where any team can beat any other team any time has the Bengals at 16/11 going into Indy, the 1/2 Browns going down to Jacksonville, the 4/11 Ravens hosting Atlanta and the 10/17 Steelers at home Monday night to JJ Watt and the Texans. With the Bengals being the only team at better than even money going into Indianapolis where the officials seem hell bent on making Andrew Luck look like a star whether he is good enough or not, Take a pass on the AFC North this week.
AFC South
In Week 7 the 2-4 Titans at 2/1 visit the 1-5 Redskins where Washington is paying the price for sticking with Booby Griffin for so long as Cousins is learning the game on the fly with significant growing pains. Jacksonville is host to a Cleveland Browns team we would not bet against right now while the 11/18 Colts host the Bengals and the 13/8 Texans are in Pittsburgh. We don't know what the officials are going to do in the Indy game but really like the way the Texans have been rounding back into a contender and look for them to beat an "average" (according to Brett Keisel) Steeler team. Bet the Texans, and, if you are very brave, take a SMALL flyer on the Titans.
AFC West
Week 7 finds the 8/15 Chargers hosting the 18/10 Chiefs, the 8/5 Raiders at home to Arizona and the 5/19 Broncos hosting the 49ers Sunday night. The Chargers almost lost to Oakland on Sunday and look ripe for a loss to re-focus themselves (they lost to Robert Griffin last year after all) and if KC can regain the intensity they had against New England they could deliver it at a decent price. The Broncos are too short of a price and the Raiders are bound to be disappointed after such a wasted effort. Bet the Kansas City Chiefs.
NFC East
The surprising 3/7 Dallas Cowboys are hosting the recent 28-0 loser 21/10 New York Giants while the Redskins host the Titans and the Eagles have their bye week in Week 7. We already picked the Titans so that leaves the Cowboys/Giants. We don't think the Cowboys are as good or the Giants are as bad as what we saw last Sunday and are more betting against the Cowboys winning 6 straight than the Giants bouncing back. Bet the New York Giants.
NFC North
We already selected to the Fish to beat the Bears and expect the Bills to beat the Vikings (though we aren't betting on it), the 4/6 Lions are hosting the Saints while the 3/10 Packers are hosting the Panthers. Take a pass on the NFC North as well this week.
NFC South
The 7/2 Carolina Panthers travel to Green Bay, the 23/17 Saints visit Detroit, the 14/5 Falcons are in Baltimore and the Bucs get their bye week. We would not be surprised in the least in the NFC South swept this weekend and at those odds 2 of three turns a tidy profit. Bet Carolina, New Orleans and Atlanta.
NFC West
The 3/1 San Francisco 49ers visit Denver, the 8/13 Cardinals are in Oakland to play the Raiders while the 6/19 Seahawks visit 5/2 St. Louis. We cannot recommend betting on the Cardinals with Carson Palmer under center and neither can we take the 49ers, despite the attractive odds, to beat any good team. Like the stock market, we see the Seahawks making a "market correction" and are going with St. Louis at 5/2. Bet the Rams.
So there you have it - A new twist on an old game. Tune in again next week to see how it went.
NFL Buddha
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