NFL WEEK 3
BYE WEEK: NONE
Week 2 was very interesting - and none to profitable for us - but we were right about some things. The Jets covered the 8 point spread and would have sent it to overtime if a certain defender had not called time-out from the sideline (which is not allowed)? The Browns did everything we said they would and won outright at home over the Saints at 9/4. The Chargers followed their pattern and beat a good team (Seahawks) the week after losing to a lousy one as predicted at 2/1. The Cowboys thrashed the Titans at 33/20 just as expected, the Redskins put in Kirk Cousins and finally won a game and Philadelphia brought it to Indy at 13/10 on the last play of the game. On to Week 3!
Week 3 is a tricky one. Inevitably, just when you thought a team had established much better form than last season with now two solid efforts under their belt or had fixed the problems from Week 1 they suddenly revert leaving you whip-sawed. With that Caveat in mind, let's get to it!!!
Week 3 is a tricky one. Inevitably, just when you thought a team had established much better form than last season with now two solid efforts under their belt or had fixed the problems from Week 1 they suddenly revert leaving you whip-sawed. With that Caveat in mind, let's get to it!!!
Primary Selection - Best Bet of the Week
San Diego Chargers 15/13 +2.0
Buffalo Bills 5/6
The Buffalo Bills starting the season 3-0? What odds would you have gotten on that in August? San Diego is a realistic play-off contender who just knocked off the defending champs in impressive fashion. Although they did lose to the RGIII version of the Redskins last year we simply cannot see EJ Manuel beating them. After the game, we can see an awful lot of people scratching their heads saying to themselves "What was I thinking" betting the Bills???
Selection: 6 units at 15/13 on San Diego Chargers
Woof Woof Go - Long Shot Special
Minnesota Vikings 15/4 +9.5
New Orleans Saints 1/5
We took the Vikings to beat Patriots last week. Don't know if you noticed but we were wrong again. Way wrong again. However Rob Ryan is no Bill Belichick. In fact, he is no Rex Ryan. The Saints defence is terrible. Horrible. Absolutely rotten. Add in the fact that their off season cost cutting, especially Sproules, has hurt them a lot more than they would like and they are 0-2. Minnesota ran into a buzz-saw last week in the Patriot defence who put on a clinic snagging 4 interceptions and sacking Cassel 6 times. Part of it was due to Frazier not starting Cassel last season, part of it was on Cassel, but most of it was ball-hawks like Revis, McCourty and Ryan and defenders like Jones & Hightower. Add in the fact that we are expecting Adrian Peterson to run rampant given the situation (the Saints could not stop running back Isaiah Crowell [Who?] last week) and that Cassel won every start after a stinker last season (tough to do on a 5 win team) and then consider that the Saints have been opening the season on streaks (winning and losing) for years and we can see them falling to 0-3 with ease. At almost 4/1 we are taking the Vikings in the upset of the week.
Selection: 4 units at 15/4 on Minnesota Vikings
Secondary Selection(s):
Pittsburgh Steelers 16/11 +3.0
Carolina Panthers 11/17
We still do not think the Panthers are for real. The Steelers did not inspire much losing handily to Baltimore but according to the "Experts" at NFL.com the AFC North is supposed to be the toughest division in football. Don't know about that but the fallacy the the NFC is stronger than the AFC is going down in flames this year (San Diego over Seattle, Cleveland over New Orleans, Indianapolis doesn't count)n and we expect another example of it here.
Selection: 2 units at 16/11 on Pittsburgh Steelers
Denver Broncos 2/1 +4.5
Seattle Seahawks 1/2
You don't often get the Broncos at 2/1. It is hard to win these games against top teams back-to-back (just ask New England) and although this one is in Seattle it is still early enough in the year for the weather to hold (it is supposed to be 82 degrees and sunny). Take the odds and take the Broncos.
Selection: 2 units at 2/1 on Denver Broncos
Tertiary Selection(s):
Baltimore Ravens 13/15 -1.0
Cleveland Browns 20/19
Cleveland native Brian Hoyer is on a roll, playing at home (literally) and the Browns are exciting to watch for a change. The Ravens are in and out. We expect them to be out this Sunday afternoon on Lake Erie.
Selection: 3 units at 21/20 on Cleveland Browns
Arizona Cardinals 6/5 +2.5
San Francisco 49'ers 7/10
The Arizona Cardinals are 2-0 because they play good defence and are successful running the football. When Mike Singletary was coaching the 49'ers, he built a team that could do the same thing but by the 4th year of the Harbaaah regime Mike's team has all but faded away and Harbaaah's replacements can't do anything. Kaepernick can ride the coattails of a good defence and hand the ball off to Gore, occassionally going for a scamper himself to gloss over the fact that, despite an arm like a canon, his brain like a pea cannot read a defence quickly enough to figure out how to be a passer. It also helps that Carson Palmer is not in there turning the ball over at the worst possible time.
Selection: 1 unit at 6/5 on Arizona Cardinals
Green Bay Packers 20/19 +1.0
Detroit Lions 13/15
The jury is certainly still out on the Packer defence as stopping Geno Smith during one of his brain cramp games doesn't count for much. The Lions are a much better team early in the year before the heat gets turned up and are at home however the Packers are the better team and a better price.
Selection: 1 unit at 20/19 on Green Bay Packers
Other Selection(s):
Houston Texans 5/6 -2.5
New York Giants 15/13
The New York Giants are a team in dire need of change. It happens. Time for Tom Coughlin to hang 'em up and the G-Men to trade Eli Maning somewhere he might rejuvenate his career, perhaps Arizona, St. Louis, Oakland, Houston? Doesn't look like any quick fix here. Hard to imagine Fitzpatrick opening 3-0 on a 2-14 team from last year but the Texan's defence is solid and Bill O'Brien is so much better than Kubiak.
Selection: 1 unit at 5/6 on Houston Texans
New York Jets 5/6
The New York Jets and Geno Smith like to alternate good performances and are at home to a Bears team that over-achieved by a mile last week in San Fran. Such performances tend to leave a team drained early in the season and despite the extra day of rest we have no faith in Cutler or the Bears defence. If Cutler could turn in back-to-back performances like that he wouldn't be the mediocre quarterback with a lifetime passer rating in the 80's that he is. Look to the Jets to ground'n'pound at will an Smith to run at key times to put the Bears back in last place.
Selection: 1 unit at 5/6 on New York Jets
Games to Avoid:
Tampa Bay Bucs 5/2 -6.5
Atlanta Falcons 3/8
Atlanta looked exactly like the 4/12 team we saw last year while Tampa Bay keeps burning up the "smart" money. It would be fitting if this game ended in a tie.
Dallas Cowboys 10/11 Pick Em
St. Louis Rams 10/11
The Cowboys won as predicted last week over the Titans but how good are the Titans? The Rams beat the Bucs, another team we have no idea how good or bad? Who knows?
Indianapolis Colts 4/11 -6.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 11/5
Jacksonville is very quickly devolving into the doormat they were last year whereas Indy is 0-2 on their way to missing the post season. Would you bet on a team that insists Trent Richardson is a star? Stay away!
Oakland Raiders 10/1 +15.0 O/U 51.0
New England Patriots 1/20
Five cents on the dollar? Brady is getting old and anything can happen so why take the chance for no return?
Tennessee Titans 12/5 +7.0
Cincinnati Bengals 4/11
Tennessee doesn't seem very good again this year but they are always good for a surprise a few times a year. If you liked Andy Dalton you could take the Bengals but we don't.
Washington Redskins 23/10 +6.5
Philadelphia Eagles 6/17
With Griffin out of there the Redskins have a chance with Cousins who looks for all the world like an actual NFL quarterback, something Booby is assuredly not. But they have no defence. Neither does Philadelphia. No idea on this one folks.
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