NFL WEEK 2
BYE WEEK: NONE
*** For those of you who were stuck going to a wedding or something with your wife or the Saturday Girlfriend this weekend, some people took issue with the way Adrian Peterson disciplines his kids and the Vikings de-activated him for Sunday's game. Obviously this changes the play - Or does it? See below!
Opening week held its usual share of surprises and let the air out of a lot of off season hype. Our Best Bet (Primary Selection) and Woof Woof Go came through with flying colors while the rest of our picks were perfect - 0 for perfect that is. The Pack proved they still have no defence (Dom Capers must go), Cutler showed why guaranteeing a never-was over $50mm is seldom a good idea, the Lions got out of the gate fast (Stafford's stats were almost identical to opening day last season), the Seahawks embarrassed their opponent and so it went, on and on. Pleasant surprises included the Minnesota Vikings making use of all of their weapons in all three phases of the game, the Patriots losing their opener for the first time in 11 years illustrating why it is a good idea for players to actually participate in the pre-season (they were gasping in the second half), the Falcon offence firing on all cylinders and Ryan Fitzpatrick and Carson Palmer won games on the same weekend (that can't happen very often, can it?) Looks like this season is going to be more interesting (in a good way) than anticipated. On to Week 2 where, along with Week 4, we have had our most success over the years and as such we recommend betting significantly more than normal - If you dare!!!
Opening week held its usual share of surprises and let the air out of a lot of off season hype. Our Best Bet (Primary Selection) and Woof Woof Go came through with flying colors while the rest of our picks were perfect - 0 for perfect that is. The Pack proved they still have no defence (Dom Capers must go), Cutler showed why guaranteeing a never-was over $50mm is seldom a good idea, the Lions got out of the gate fast (Stafford's stats were almost identical to opening day last season), the Seahawks embarrassed their opponent and so it went, on and on. Pleasant surprises included the Minnesota Vikings making use of all of their weapons in all three phases of the game, the Patriots losing their opener for the first time in 11 years illustrating why it is a good idea for players to actually participate in the pre-season (they were gasping in the second half), the Falcon offence firing on all cylinders and Ryan Fitzpatrick and Carson Palmer won games on the same weekend (that can't happen very often, can it?) Looks like this season is going to be more interesting (in a good way) than anticipated. On to Week 2 where, along with Week 4, we have had our most success over the years and as such we recommend betting significantly more than normal - If you dare!!!
Special Selection - Bet With Both Hands
Miami Dolphins 5/6 -1.0 O/U 43.0
Buffalo Bills EVS
You think we would have learned our lesson about playing favorites last week (0 for 3) however this one looks too good to be true (and it may very well be nevertheless we are all in). If Miami was able to shut down Tom Brady and the mighty New England Patriots (sic) what on earth are they going to do to the (second) worst starting QB in the league? The Bills are going to have their hands full stopping Miami's outstanding running game (the Fish sure fixed their offensive line fast). This is that rare instance where playing the spread at 10/11 may make more sense than betting it straight up at 5/6 (10/12 - A one point win becomes a push) however we are hitting the 5/6 hard!
Selection: 6 units at 5/6 on Miami Dolphins
Primary Selection - Best Bet of the Week
Jacksonville Jaguars 11/5 +6.0 O/U 43.5
Washington Redskins 5/13
Gus Bradley has done a bang-up job turning the Jags around and when he adds a few more pieces and brings Big Blake Bortles along Jacksonville is going to be a fun team to watch and maybe not-so-fun to play against. The Washington Redskins on the other hand are headed in the other direction (Picture a 15 foot aluminum boat with a Johnson 9.9 on the back of it trying head back to Lake Erie as it gets washed over Niagara Falls). Booby Griffon the tird is the worst quarterback in the league playing for the dumbest owner in the league (Danny Boy Snyder and yes, Virginia, he is dumber than Jerry Jones) whose great off-season decision to go out and pay a thug that no one else wanted almost $10mm to catch a handful of 7 yard passes. How this team could be favored over anyone is mind-boggling - It won't last so get it while you can!
Selection: 6 units at 11/5 on Jacksonville Jaguars
Woof Woof Go - Long Shot Special
New York Jets 16/5 +8.0 O/U 46.0
Green Bay Packers 1/4
We took the Pack to beat Seattle last week. Don't know if you noticed but we were wrong. Way wrong. So long as Dom Capers is running the Packer "D" there will be no joy for the cheeseheads. They were terrible. Meanwhile, Gang Green was busy dispatching a much improved Raider squad with relative ease. No doubt everyone is expecting Rodgers to pick apart the Jets beleaguered secondary however the Packers cannot stop the run and Rex's Ground'n'Pound is operating at full capacity. Add in the fact that Geno Smith has the occasional good game and this could be one of them. Put it all together and better than 3/1 is too juicy to pass up.
Selection: 4 units at 16/5 on New York Jets
Secondary Selection(s):
New England Patriots 2/5 -6.0 O/U 48.0
Minnesota Vikings 21/10
The Play - We left our original synopsis and wagering strategy for this game below but take another look at it here due to Peterson's de-activation. What has changed is that the Minnesota Viking's game-breaking running back is not available to them. In his stead their power back Asiata is expected to get the bell-cow duties and rookie Jerrick McKinnon figures to get significantly more carries than the one he got last week and to be involved in the game-plan earlier in the season than he otherwise might have. We may even get to see Joe Banyard get his first NFL carry (if he is even active). What stays the same is New England's run defence, which has been sub-par going back to last season and even before and Logan Mankins is still gone and the newly configured Patriot offensive line still may need time to gel. Surprisingly (perhaps), in this instance, we do not see it affecting the outcome much. The Vikings will miss Peterson if he is gone for a significant period however we believe he will be missed much more against the teams with excellent run defences because that is what makes him great - He can terrorize ANY defence. Provided Asiata and McKinnon can carry the load without tiring in the fourth quarter the Vikings may not get any 75 yard rushings TD's (or maybe they will?) and may need to look to Patterson and the passing game to produce the big plays however Cassel can still certainly fling the rock, Jennings is still incredibly smart and sneaky, Patterson is still freakishly fast and Rudolph is still a very good tight end so all things being equal the Vikings should still be able to score a bunch of points (they did after all finish 14th or 32 in points scored last year with Ponder and Freeman at the helm most of the season). We thought that this game was always going to be about whether the Viking defence could shut down Brady and still do. And we still think they will so double the bet!
Selection: 6 units at 21/10 on Minnesota Vikings
We believe that the New England Patriots will be the Super Bowl team representing the AFC. Of course we also believe that the Minnesota Vikings will be the Super Bowl team representing the NFC. And we believe that this game will be the game that propels each team towards their destiny. It is no secret that the Patriots have been struggling against the run. Wilfork is older and slower and coming off of a ruptured achilles. Easley is coming off an ACL tear and missed the entire preseason along with the man in the middle Mayo. Siliga is a glorified practice squad guy. Vellano (a distasnt relative, his grandfather taught me how to play bocce ball while Nixon was getting impeached 20 years before he was born - True Story) is a pass rusher forced to carry 30-40 pounds too much weight. The offensive line just lost Logan Mankins, as good as it gets. Brady needs more time with his new receivers. And so it goes, on and on. On the other hand, All Day is not getting any younger and if he is going to the Main Event it had better be soon. Matt Cassel is the perfect fit for Norv Turner as play-action and pushing the ball down the field are his strongest assets. Greg Jennings may be the most under-rated receiver in the league and Patterson is about as exciting a player as you can get. Zimmer is a defensive genius and it is already showing. He has his team out to lightning fast start and Adrian Peterson has proven he can run All Day, hence his nickname, and is as likely to peel off a 200 yard game in Week 17 as he is in Week 2. Brady is also a slow starter these days and the Patriots miss Blount a lot more than they let on. The Patriots will get it together. And an 0-2 start will go a long way towards propelling them to that.
Selection: 6 units at 21/10 on Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots 5/8 -3.0 O/U 49.0
Minnesota Vikings 7/5
Selection: 3 units at 7/5 on Minnesota Vikings
Pittsburgh Steelers 6/5 +2.5 O/U 44.0
Baltimore Ravens 5/7
With all of the turmoil swirling around Ravenland it is hard to imagine them being focussed enough to beat an on-the-rise perennial powerhouse such as the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bengals had their way with the Ravens last week while we think that the trepidation about the just short of a win come-back engineered by Hoyer is more due to the lack of respect for Brady's former understudy than it is about a valid concern for the Steeler "D". Take the points if you must. We are taking the odds.
Selection: 3 units at 6/5 on Pittsburgh Steelers
Tertiary Selection(s):
New Orleans Saints 4/11 -6.0 O/U 47.5
Cleveland Browns 9/4
Cleveland native Brian Hoyer wasted little time in turning Johnny Football into Johnny Who? (I read an even better one today, Johnny Bench) with a furious second half come-back at Heinz field last Sunday that fell just short of taking the game to overtime after being down 27-3 at the half. While the Saints will be determined after getting bested in a shoot-out by Atlanta in over-time they are a southern dome team visiting a cool and likely wet Lake Erie venue. Hoyer beat a good Bengal team in his lone complete home-game last season and we are betting he can do it again in the Brown's home opener.
Selection: 2 units at 9/4 on Cleveland Browns
Seattle Seahawks 5/12 -5.0 O/U 44.5
San Diego Chargers 2/1
The Chargers have a knack for losing to inferior opposition one week and then beating the opposite the following week (3 or 4 times last season alone). We are expecting the Seahawks to back-slide this season. Put those two things together, add in that it is the Chargers home opener, they are home dogs and they are 2/1 and we have what we hope is an upset.
Selection: 2 units at 2/1 on San Diego Chargers
Philadelphia Eagles 13/10 +3.0 O/U 53.5
Indianapolis Colts 4/6
Were it not for the fact that the league is so hell bent on manufacturing a star out of Andrew Luck by showering a multitude of beneficial calls on the Colts, especially at home (re-watch the Houston prime-time game to see it at its worst) we would be all over the Eagles here. There is no way the Colt defence can stop the Chip Kelly Scoring Machine in a fair fight. We have to go at least one unit on the Eagles and hope the officiating is not too biased.
Selection: 1 unit at 13/10 on Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys 33/20 +3.0 O/U 49.0
Tennessee Titans 10/19
One game does not a season make. Especially when that game is against the Kansas City Chiefs, a team we see finishing at 4-12 or even 2-14. Meanwhile Tony Romo has been playing at a very high level for a very long time and despite the Cowboys playing very badly they did manage to out-score San Fran 14-0 in the second half last week. Jake Locker may indeed be all that but he is going to have to prove it to us against some decent teams first.
Selection: 1 unit at 33/20 on Dallas Cowboys
Atlanta Falcons 9/5 +5.0 O/U 48.0
Cincinnati Bengals 5/11
Classic case of unstoppable force meeting immovable object. The rediscovered Falcon offence overpowered the Saints' high octane one last weekend however this weekend the Bengals defence looks to stymie Ryan and company. We don't think they can do it and look to Andy Dalton to begin his descent back to regular season reality this year. At almost 2/1 we have to give Atlanta the chance to continue making up for last year.
Selection: 1 unit at 9/5 on Atlanta Falcons
Games to Avoid:
Arizona Cardinals EVS +1.0 O/U 44.0
New York Giants 5/6
We have the Giants pegged as a play off team this season however last Monday night they gave us nothing to show they can make good on their perceived promise. We believe the Cardinals to be perhaps the most over-rated team in the league and think extremely little of Carson Palmer and yet they beat our prospective AFC Conference Finalist San Diego Chargers in the other Monday nighter. An excellent game to skip methinks.
Detroit Lions 5/4 +2.5 O/U 43.5
Carolina Panthers 20/29
The Lions got off to their customary fast start last week while the Panthers won for fun without Cam Newton. This week? No idea. You?
St. Louis Rams 11/5 +6.0 O/U 37.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5/13
Josh McCown looked very good last year driving the Chicago Bear offence but one must bear in mind that the very same offence makes Jay Cutler look like an NFL caliber quarterback, which he surely is not, on a frequent basis. The Rams meanwhile got thumped by the new look Zimmer/Turner Minnesota Vikings led by a highly under-rated Matt Cassel. With Tampa's OLine woes, despite the addition of Mankins, the Rams outstanding pass rush figures to give McCown an even rougher day The Rams would be the pick if they had a quarterback but alas, for the second straight year, they do not. Case Keenum is likely at least another week away from starting, if he starts at all. Stay away!
Kansas City Chiefs 6/1 +13.0 O/U 51.0
Denver Broncos 1/9
We expect the Broncos to back-slide this season as the year wears on but not this far and not this soon however 1/9 are bridge-jumping odds and we don't want to jump. Meanwhile we expect the Chiefs to win 2 to 4 games total this year, and this isn't one of them. Maybe play the over? Or not.
Houston Texans 4/6 -3.0 O/U 39.5
Oakland Raiders 13/10 +3.0
Derek Carr will get to meet the Sultan of Swat, Mr. J.J. Watt, this weekend, up close and personal (perhaps a bit too close and too personal in fact) however Clowney is out and Fitzpatrick is still in. We like the Texans to make it two straight and we like the Raiders to win their home opener. So we pass.
Chicago Bears 13/5 +7.0 O/U 48.5
San Francisco 49ers 5/16
Based on the way the Bears are playing and the fact that Smokin' Jay Cutler is their quarterback it is tempting to take San Fran despite the short price. Based on the fact that if you take away the two turnover fueled touchdowns the Cowboys outscored the 49'ers 17-14 for the game and 14-0 in the second half it is tempting to take the Bears, especially at 13/5. We can't take either team.
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