NFL WEEK 9
Last week was pretty much a wash for us as the returns on our winners (Buffalo @ 7/5 and Pittsburgh @ 31/20) almost exactly covered the three losers (Philly @ 21/20, the Pack @ 11/10 and the Rams @ 11/4) we selected. We did tell you that Houston (@ 10/17), the Patriots (@ 5/13) and the Dolphins (@5/13) should all win (and they did), predicted Geno Smith's meltdown (so bad he lost his job) and to stay away from the Minnesota/Tampa (especially Tampa) game. Every year we seem to have a better handle on the AFC for some reason, something to bear in mind we suppose. Moving along to Week 9...
At Week 9 we are well entrenched in the dog-days
of the NFL season where under-disciplined teams lose games they should win
(Seattle losing to the Rams for example), bad teams win the bulk of their 2, 3
or 4 games, injuries mount and the pretenders slip away. We expect the usual
from Dallas, Detroit and the other perennial quitters while teams like the
Patriots, Steelers and the rest of the perennial contenders amp it up a notch
getting ready for the real season, the post season.
AFC East
The Buffalo Bills head into their bye week finally
performing up to our expectations going back to the beginning of last season
now that they have permanently dumped their terrible starting QB EJ Manual and
did their best impression of New England last Sunday whomping on the Jets 43-23
in Jersey. The Bills have cast their lot with mediocre but steady Kyle Orton
while the Jets have at last themselves permanently dumped their horrible
starting QB Geno Smith to ride the mercurial Michael Vick in the hopes of an
improbable 8 game winning streak to finish out with a winning record. The
Dolphins got back above 0.500 by winning their second straight while New
England demolished the hapless Chicago Bears (the score was 45-7 when the
Patriots began resting their starters) breaking the 50 point barrier for the
first time this season. Will Michael Vick be able to manufacture a win against
the surging 4-3 KC Chiefs in KC? The oddsmakers are sure making the Jets
attractive at 13/4. 10/13 Miami on the other hand is favored to beat the
suddenly 5-3 (losses to KC & Denver) 11/10 San Diego Chargers at home
however we cannot see the Chargers losing three in a row. 20/33 Denver rolls in
to face 29/20 New England with both teams riding 4 game winning streaks. In
what is likely the defining game in the AFC this season we have to take the
odds on the home team:
Bet the
Patriots @ 29/20
AFC North
The Pittsburgh Steelers crushed the perennial
pretender Indianapolis Colts 51-34 with both teams playing as we predicted in
preseason, Cleveland disposed of the Raiders as expected and the Ravens got
robbed in Cincinnati on a dubious offensive pass interference call last week.
This week the 10/13 Ravens visit 11/10 Pittsburgh (the game opened as a Pick ‘Em)
while the 1/3 Browns are home to the 5/2 Buccaneers and the 1/6 Bengals host
Florida’s other disaster, the 4/1 Jaguars. The Steelers look to finally be
on-track to break out and reclaim their division and if they win they may just
turn their current 2 game winning streak in to a 5 or 6 gamer as we anticipated
at the start of the season, the Browns also look to be back on-track
sufficiently to beat Tampa but the price isn’t right and while we would not be
surprised to see the Jaguars beat the Bengals we cannot justify betting on Jacksonville
as they are too unpredictable :
Bet the
Steelers @ 11/10
AFC South
The wheels are falling off the 4/7 Colts as they
travel to Jersey to take on the 31/20 NY Giants while the 21/20 Texans host
another team cooling off in the 4/5 Philadelphia Eagles. The woeful Tennessee
Titans are on their bye week and the 4/1 Jacksonville Jaguars are in Cinci as
above. We expect the Colts to finish at 9-7 with this game having a 50/50
chance of being one of those losses. The 31/20 Giants were a fumble away from
taking the Cowboys to overtime (when the Cowboys were hot) and are fresh off
their bye. The Texan game should be a good one where we expect 21/20 Houston to
shut down Nick Foles and the Eagles enough to squeak out a win. We also expect
4/1 Jacksonville to win 4 games this year and believe the 1/6 Bengals to be
much overrated. Don’t be too surprised if Jacksonville upsets:
Bet the Texans
@ 21/20
AFC West
20/33 Denver visits 29/20 New England as above
and we are taking the Patriots. 11/10 San Diego looks to end their two game
losing streak against the 10/13 Fish in Miami where we anticipate the Dolphins
getting knocked back to 0.500 (on their way to 8-8). 2/9 KC takes on the 13/4
Michael Vick version of the Jets as above and although we are curious to see
the Vick Version of the Jets we expect KC to win but are not betting on it @
2/9 and the now 8/1 Raiders (down from 9/1) are visiting the 1/14 Seahawks. It
is interesting that San Diego beat Seattle 30-21 yet needed a late field goal
to beat the Raiders 31-28 and 8/1 is a still a ridiculous price. Whilst you may
wish to wait until the weekend for the alternate spreads where it is likely you
can get the Raiders +21 points:
Bet San
Diego @ 11/10 and take a Flyer on the Raiders @ 8/1
NFC East
The Cowboys came thundering back to earth Monday
night losing handily to the Colt McCoy version of the Redskins who may no
longer be the worst team in the league (however with Booby Griffin the tird
returning they could be number 32 with a sinker real quick) they are certainly
still in the bottom six. Philadelphia also lost, and although Arizona may be
sitting atop the NFC they aren’t all that, leaving us to wonder if the Eagles “Have
It” or not. The Giants enjoyed their bye no doubt. We are expecting big things
out of the Giants in the second half of the season so the next three games
(Indy, Seattle and San Fran) are critical as they pretty much need to win 2 of
the 3 if they want to make the post season for certain. The 31/20 GMen face the
4/7 Colts in Jersey on MNF and need this one as it is the most winnable of the
3. Washington goes to Minnesota this week in a Pick ‘Em you would do well to
avoid. 8/5 Arizona goes in to the Big ‘D’ to take on a 5/9 Cowboys team that
could very easily have Brandon Weedon under center for the better part of the
game – Say no more, say no more! That leaves the cooling off Eagles who we
already bet against above:
Pass on the
NFC East
NFC North
With the Pack, Detroit and the hapless Chicago Bears
all on their bye weeks and Minnesota hosting the Redskins in a game to avoid
there is nothing to do except:
Pass on the
NFC North
NFC South
The New Orleans Saints are on fire this past
little while dumping the Pack and the Panthers unceremoniously in a four day
period. As the latter was Thursday night and the Falcons are on their bye week,
all that remains is the 5/2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting 1/3 Cleveland, a game
which we already took a pass on:
Pass on the
NFC South
NFC West
The 1/14 Seattle Seahawks will most surely end
their at Home losing streak at 1 against the 8/1 Raiders ne c’est pas? We have
a feeling that the Raiders are leading up to their (and Carr’s) first victory
this season in the second most unlikely place (they already lost in Foxboro
Week 3) and already took Oakland as our Longshot of the Week. The 7/2 Rams play 1/5 San Francisco in San Fran this time after
dominating the 49’ers for the first 28 minutes at home last time before
ultimately falling apart but then going on to beat Seattle the very next week.
We believe that the Rams can put together another solid 60 minutes and win
another. Last, but certainly not least is our Best Bet of the Week as the 8/5 NFC
Leading Arizona travel to Dallas to play the 5/9 Dallas Cowboys, who looked
very ordinary against the lowly Redskins (Colt McCoy? Seriously?) and could
have Brandon Weeden under center for the better part of the game. We have to
take the better team at the better price.
Bet (with
both hands) the Cardinals at 8/5 and take a Flyer on St. Louis @ 7/2.
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