Week 9 was kind to us. We pressed the Cardinals @ 8/5, gave you the Rams @ a whopping 7/2, bet the house on the Patriots @ 29/20 while taking Denver as our most probable loser, were all over the Steelers @ 11/10. San Diego laid an egg but the Raiders got within six points late in Seattle @ a ridiculous 8/1 and the Texans shot themselves in the foot losing to Mark Sanchez (of all people! And Sanchez threw his trademark 2 Int's). While we weren't perfect you can see the advantage of betting teams at better than even money as betting all at the same stake (without pressing New England, Arizona & San Diego) would have brought you and 85% return on investment.
New England assumed control of the AFC last week by pummeling Denver and the Patriots left a ton of points on the table otherwise they would have scored 60+ points and if Belichick keeps coming up with superior game plans the Road to the Superbowl could very well go through Foxboro in January as we predicted. Meanwhile Miami put on a clinic shutting out San Diego 37-0 to move to 5-3, in the thick of it for a Wild Card along with the Bills. Another one of our predictions, the Pittsburgh Steelers, are hitting on all cylinders and have even outscored the Patriots the last two weeks although in fairness the Patriots faced tougher teams. The Colts won a key match-up over a listless, useless Giants squad and look like the are going to finish at 10-5. To beat that, the Texans must win out with Fitzpatrick under center, an extremely unlikely outcome. The Chargers and Broncos got torn apart by AFC East Teams while Kansas City has quietly moved up to 5-3, only one game behind the Broncos and suddenly ahead of San Diego.
Over in the NFC where we got love big-time last week, we predicted the demise of Dallas behind Brandon Weedon (seriously), that Washington would lose with the return of Booby Griffin the tird, however even with Mark Sanchez throwing his usual 2 Int's the Eagles beat Houston. The Giants don't seem to have the coaching to get their offence humming and are wallowing in mediocrity. In the NFC North, everyone was on their bye week except Minnesota. Terry Bridgewater out-gunned Booby Griffin the tird in an anemic offensive showing. Down in the NFC South the Saints, as predicted, are back in first place after a couple of msolid wins where Rob Ryans defence actually showed up. This division may go right down to the wire, or not. Now on to the not so great , as predicted, NFC West where Arizona is King and just spanked the Cowboys, albeit with Weeden leading, well in theory anyway, the Dallas Cowboys. The winless Raiders gave the stuttering Seahawks all they wanted with Oakland coming up 6 points shy while the San Francisco 49ers lost yet again, this time to our 7/2 Woof Woof Go Longshot of the week St. Louis Rams, to fall three (3) full games behind the Cardinals, who look to be locks to go 12-4 or better, meaning if they win out, extremely unlikely given that they have four (4) very tough games coming up starting this week, they cannot pass the Cardinals. We predicted the 49ers would go 9-7 and miss the playoffs and that outcome is looking extremely likely from here. Can the Rams continue to win? Will Seattle get their act together and take it on the road (they are 2-2 on the road this season) and win out to unseat the Cardinals? We shall indeed see!
On to the Week 10 games, where all of the 6 Bye Week teams are either teams we like to bet or (mostly) teams we like to bet against, the betting opportunities are likely to be more scarce.
AFC East
The red hot Miami Dolphins @ 5/4 visit the equally hot Detroit Lions @ 20/29 in Detroit Rock City. If the Dolphins defence plays the way they did last Sunday they will frustrate Stafford who will then throw 3 or 4 Int's. If the Lions defence smothers and pummels Tannehill the way they have all year Miami will score very few points. We expect both teams to crumble and finish around 8-8 so the question here is will it start this Sunday and if so who will crumble first. Detroit beat the Bears the week after their Week 9 bye last year to go to 6-3 only to lose 6 of their last 7 to finish 7-9 while Miami was all over the place standing 4-4 going into Week 10 on their way to an 8-8 season. We are going to go with Miami. The 11/10 Buffalo Bills come off their bye week with a very fresh Kyle Orton (who is 3-1 since taking over with the loss being vs. presently unbeatable New England) in a home game against the 10/13 Kamsas City Chiefs with a hurting Alex Smith under center. We love home dogs at better than even money (i.e. New England last week) and are going with the freshened Buffalo. The sad sack 19/10 New York Jets continue to get saved from the dreaded last overall by the winless (but not for too long) Oakland Raiders are rolling into Pittsburgh to meet a red hot Steeler team. While the Jets will win some games with Vick, it is highly unlikely to be this game.
Bet the Dolphins @ 5/4 *
Bet the Bills @ 11/10
* Update - Definitely wavering on the Buffalo selection. The Chiefs are 5-1 for their last 6 stars and were leading at San Fran going in to last 4th quarter where the Niners kicked two (2) un-answered field goals to grab the "W".
* Update - Definitely wavering on the Buffalo selection. The Chiefs are 5-1 for their last 6 stars and were leading at San Fran going in to last 4th quarter where the Niners kicked two (2) un-answered field goals to grab the "W".
AFC North
Yeehaw! We love Browns/Bengals games where recently the teams have mostly split but back in the Belichick days the 11/5 Browns were 8-2 against the 5/13 Bengals. We believe the wheels are falling off the Bengals this season and with all of their soft games behind them they could very easily lose between 5 and 7 games in the second half, including this one, while the Browns are on the upswing and maybe headed to the post season. To get there Cleveland, currently 5-3 only a half game behind the Bengals for first place must win games like this one which we think they will this Thursday night. Speaking of first place, the 10/23 Steelers should gobble up Mike Vick and the 19/10 Jets while Roethlisberger should make short work of the Jets non-existent secondary and add to his impressive recent touchdown totals. We think you can bet all you want on Pittsburgh but at those short odds we are not. The 1/6 Ravens, who have quietly slipped from first place to last, have 7/2 Tennessee visiting in what is a must win game fore Baltimore however we cannot go near 1/6.
Bet the Cleveland Browns @ 11/5
AFC South
The more lucky than good Colts are relaxing on their bye week as are the only possible contender to them Houston Texans. 7/2 Tennessee is likely cannon fodder for the 1/6 Ravens while there is no line on the Jaguars home game (in London, England) against the Cowboys due to the uncertainty around Tony Romo. We will be taking the Jaguars so long as the odds are in our favor.
Bet the Jacksonville Jaguars @ the right odds.*
* Update - Jacksonville is "only" 13/5 whereas they should be at least 19/5 or even 9/2 so we would definitely say these are not the right odds - Proceed with caution.
* Update - Jacksonville is "only" 13/5 whereas they should be at least 19/5 or even 9/2 so we would definitely say these are not the right odds - Proceed with caution.
AFC West
The demoralized 2/13 Broncos are looking to bounce back against the 9/2 Raiders in Oakland. Whilst 9/2 is only half as good as the 9/1 offered last week, we are again going with thew Raiders who we are certain will beat one very good team this year at some point. The Chargers are on their bye week while we already took Buffalo to squeak one out over Kansas City as above.
Bet the Oakland Raiders at 9/2.
NFC East
We already took the Jags to beat the Cowboys in London as above. The Redskins are on their Bye Week (it won't help). The Mark Sanchez version of the 10/27 Philadelphia Eagles are entertaining the under-achieving 23/10 Carolina Panthers who could go on a roll at any time, or not. We are tempted to bet against Sanchez as the Panthers will spend the whole week game planning for him but something tells us to take a pass so we shall. The listless 19/5 NY Giants visit 2/9 Seattle but seeing how bad the New York passing game is presently the Giants are too hard to take and the Seahawks are too short a price. If the Giants suddenly start clicking the can go on a roll but it will be with no advance warning. It could be Sunday, but don't bet on it.
Take a pass on the NFC East
NFC North
The Vikings are chilling on their Bye Week. The hapless 11/4 Chicago Bears roll into Lambeau to play the 2/9 Green Bay Packers however unlike last year when Chicago came in and won with Josh McCown over a Seneca Wallace led Packers squad it will be Aaron Rodgers facing off against Smokin' Jay Cutler. Both teams know each other well and have had two (2) weeks to prepare and get healthy but Green Bay has such an edge in coaching (although Dom Capers idunno) and such an edge with a healthy Aaron Roders it is, as they say in latin in court, Nolo Contendere, that is no contest. You can probably bet as much as you want on the Packers but 2/9 is too short for us. We already took Miami to beat the lions as above.
Take a pass on the NFC North
NFC South
Are the New Orleans Saints for real or is that finicky defence going to continue to let them down at key moments? This week the 19/10 San Francisco 49ers visit the 10/23 Saints at the Superdome where last year, while San Fran was playing well, the Saints clawed out a victory. This year with the Saints playing well (presently at least) and in first place and the 49ers not so much and one (1) game out of last place we have to select New Orleans but won't bet on it @ 10/23. We already wrote that we think the Panthers could beat Sanchez as above but we cannot recommend betting on them due to too much inconsistency. 10/11 Atlanta visits 10/11 Tampa Bay in a Pick 'Em and it truly is one. A case could be made both for and against both teams who at the halfway point are collectively 3-13.
Take a Pass on the NFC South
NFC West
We already went against San Fran as above but didn't bet on it. We already passed on the 19/5 Giants at the 2/9 Seahawks as 2/9 is too short a price for us and the Giants didn't look anywhere close to getting it together Monday night. Finally, our St Louis Rams @ 11/4, who paid off very nicely for us in their last two (2) divisional games beating Seattle and the 49ers, take on their other divisional foe 2/7 Arizona. With Jeff Fisher's job on the line, he has game planned brilliantly against his well known divisional opponents and would dearly like to make it three in a row. In addition, a win here combined with an expected San Fran loss will get the Rams out of the bassement, or at out of sole possession of it to sit 4-5. This game represents Arizona's second divisional foray whereas it will be St Louis's fourth such game and with likely three (3) "Gimmie's" in their upcoming non-divisional games St Louis could get to 9-7 now that they have a serviceable QB and if they crank it up another notch it is entire possible they could contend for a wild card in a subdued NFC this season.
Bet the St. Louis Rams @ 11/4
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