NFL Week 13 - Byes are
finished
Anticipating Upsets
Thanksgiving Thursday
Before plopping down your
money to back any of the favorites playing Thursday, you would be well advised
to consider the following. Far be it from us to try to convince you to bet on
the Bears, the Eagles or Seattle. We don’t think it would be possible to sell
betting on Cutler or Sanchez to anyone and if you are a 49er fan you are beyond
hope in any case. At the very least we shall instead try to dissuade you from
betting on the Lions, Cowboys or the 49ers.
Matthew Stafford and the
Detroit Lions
Can you guess what Matthew
Stafford’s career record is in games on or after Armistice (Veterans) Day? If
you guessed 6-24 you would be correct. Take out the 4-4 from the year the Lions
went to the post season and you get 2-20, and if you take 2012-14 you come up
with 1-16. The simple fact of the matter is that when the games mean the most,
Stafford does the least.
Tony Romo and the Dallas
Cowboys
Romo hurt his back some time
in October finally leaving the field during the Redskin game. Since that time,
the Cowboys lost to 3-8 Washington, lost a home game, beat Jacksonville and was
life and death last weekend to beat a 3-8 Giants squad in the final minute. In
addition, Dallas is one good hit on Romo away from putting Brandon Weedon under
center.
The 49ers
Last week, while Seattle was
dominating the team with the best record in the NFL whom they ultimately
defeated 19-3, San Francisco was getting all it could handle from the 3-8 Booby
Griffin the tird version of the Washington Redskins. The Redskin offence was so
bad, generating only 106 yards passing, that Griffin lost his starting job to
Colt McCoy, yet they outscored the 49ers for the first 57 minutes of the game.
Sunday’s Games
We expect favorites to
continue to fare poorly on Sunday. Bet the chalk, if chalk bettor you must be,
but at least try to bet favorites that make sense, unlike the following:
The 1/5 Indianapolis Colts
Putting up 5 to make 1 is a
dubious prospect at best, but with the Indianapolis Colts already 2 games clear
of a Houston Texans team without a quarterback and facing an under-performing
Redskin offence chock full of talented veterans chomping at the bit to make
some sort of statement about a season gone bad behind an arrogant mouthpiece
finally relegated to the bench as they loudly demanded. Still, the Colts will
most probably win, but we wouldn’t bet on it at 1/5.
The 5/13 Houston Texans
Texans coach Bill O’Brien has
already gone on record as stating that Ryan Fitzpatrick’s level of play simply
isn’t good enough only to have his replacement Ryan Mallet go down for the
season in his second start. Their earlier game was Mettenberger’s first ever
career start whereas Sunday’s tilt follows three straight games against
probable play-off teams. We liked the Titans last week at long odds and would
not be in the least surprised were they to pop here at better than 2/1.
The 1/3 St. Louis Rams
The Rams have been
giant-killers this season toppling the Broncos, Seahawks and 49ers in addition
to the Bucs however it is their other 7 games that are the problem. Meanwhile
the 5/2 Oakland Raiders are coming off an impressive win over the very good
Kansas City Chiefs, their first of the season, and there is no way to know how
they will respond. They could feed off of that win and turn into a monster
team. Not likely, but possible. Would anyone be all that surprised to see the
Rams lose their 8th of the season against the 4 wins?
The 20/29 New York Giants
Hard to believe the 3-8 Giants
are favored to beat anyone, especially on the road. Meanwhile Jacksonville
already beat a pretty good Cleveland team as a long shot. There are plenty of
chances to bet the Giants at a good price – No need to back them as
road-favorites.
The 10/27 Baltimore Ravens
The 7-4 Ravens have a nice
team this year and are coming off a nice road win over the Saints however the
7-4 Chargers also have a nice team and are on a two game winning streak
themselves. We can make a case for the Chargers at 23/10 but not the Ravens at
10/27.
The 20/29 Buffalo Bills
The 7-4 Browns visit Orchard
Park with the best record in the AFC North over the past 8 games (6-2) to take
on a Bills squad realistically going nowhere piloted by the mediocre Kyle
Orton. The Browns need this one and will very likely go out and take it.
The 10/17 Green Bay Packers
The Packers have been playing
great of late – But so have the Patriots. Much like the Baltimore game, these
teams are a lot closer than the odds indicate and at 6/4 it would seem prudent
to either take the Patriots or take a pass.
Monday Night
The 5/16 Miami Dolphins
It seems that whenever the Dolphins
need a win over Rex Ryan late in the season they never get it. Geno Smith has
clawed his way back as the starter for the Jets and it is easy to remember the way
he knocked Miami out of the play-offs last year.
Summary
So there you go. No doubt some
of these favorites will win. Most probably a bit more than half. But which
half?
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