NFL WEEK 13
So we told you who not to bet (see below) and so far we are right on the money. The small profit one might have turned on the Lion game would have been turned into a loss by the Dallas game with the 49er game making for a very bad day. The Bears did manage a beautiful opening drive and capitalized on a turnover to go up 14-3 on Detroit early but Jay Cutler looked extremely haggard as Chicago could only manage an additional three (3) points in the final 49 odd minutes and the Bear defence lived up to its 32nd place ranking as the Lions easily could have gone over 40 points. Stafford passed for almost 400 yards as it was (390) in what cannot be looked upon as a true contest. It will be interesting to see how Matthew fares against the middle-of-the-pack defence of the Bucs when Tampa visits Ford Field next week.
Down in the Big “D”, just as we postulated, there is something very wrong with Tony Romo. The Eagle defence is on the field a lot (thanks to Chip Kelly’s 100-mile-an-hour offence) and so is ranked 30th against the pass giving up a healthy 257 yards per game on average and yet Romo could not crack the 150 yard mark before “garbage time” and then still could not get past 200. Over in Silicon Valley, Seattle had their way with the 49ers where, as predicted, San Fran was outscored easily as they could only manage 3 (three) points the entire game with Kaepernick managing less than 100 yards passing before “garbage time” and only 121 total for a QB rating of 36.7 for the night. Neither Dallas nor San Francisco is likely to make the play-offs with both teams heading for what looks like 9-7 records as either Seattle or Arizona will take one of the Wild Cards and Detroit almost certain to go to 10-6 looking at the way they handled the Bears and the rest of their schedule (maybe Stafford can win some games after Armistice Day after all).
There are some really interesting games this weekend, headlined of course by white hot New England Patriots travelling to Lambeau to take on then equally hot Green Bay Packers in what many are calling a Super Bowl Preview. We agree, having taken a Double on the Conference Winners (Green Bay @ 8/1 x New England @ 7/2= 39 ½ to 1) before the season. We also took San Fran to miss the play-offs at 5/2 and our very favorite bet from the Pre-Season, the one we were certain we would win when we made it, the Washington Redskins to Win Under 7 ½ games @ evens (we would have borrowed thousands to put on it except we feared Griffin would get hurt and Cousins would come in and win 8 games). Other games of interest are Denver at KC, San Diego at Baltimore, New Orleans at Pittsburgh and more.
AFC East
Our best bet of the week has to be the 29/20 New England Patriots at the 20/33 Green Bay Packers at Lambeau this Sunday. We are a little bit leery having got burned in Carolina last season by the officials and offer the same caveat here – There could be ulterior motives at work here on more than one front so do not bet more than you can afford – but given a fair shake it is hard to see how the Patriots can get beat here. Rodgers is a fantastic QB, at home in his element, the Packers have won 7 of their last 8 and the Packers are second in scoring and net points and are favored at 20/33. However, Tom Brady is also a fantastic QB, always seem to have the advantage in cold weather (it should be below freezing at kick-off), is on a 7 games winning streak, and the Patriots are first in scoring and net points. Legarret Blount is back, bigger than Eddie Lacy and proven late in the year, the Patriots have six (6) pass catchers operating at top capacity (Vereen, Gronkowski, Wright, Edleman, LaFell, and Amendola) not counting their secret weapon, lucky number 7 Brian Tyms. We have been wondering what McDaniels has been saving Tyms for (they haven’t thrown to him since Game 6).
On special teams, Edleman and Amendola have each taken one the distance lately (Amendola’s was called back on a bogus penalty mind) and overall the Patriots hold a slight edge here as Cobb & Co. are almost as dangerous but it is on defence where the main difference lies. Capers has been using smoke & mirrors to make his defence more stout and it has been working against teams like Minnesota but Green Bay hasn’t faced anything like New England this season. On the other hand, Browner more-or-less shut down Calvin Johnson completely last week, Revis is in top form, Dennard is off the injury list and back at his best, Arrington has been extremely effective in his narrow role and the rest of the DB’s are playing very well. Hightower is proving to be more effective than the absent Mayo, Collins is developing into an All Pro, Wilfork is undergoing some sort of renaissance and Ninkovich seems to be everywhere.
The 8/5 Cleveland Browns go to Orchard Park to take on the 5/9 Buffalo Bills in another game where we believe the odds to be an anomaly. The only teams with winning records the Bills have beaten are the Lions and the Dolphins whereas the Browns have beaten Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Many are focussing on Hoyer’s 3 Int’s last week but the fact of the matter is when he needed to drive his team down the field for the game winning score he did it. He wins. Hoyer is 10-4 as the starter in Cleveland and he just got his favorite toy, Josh Gordon, back. He had the Bills measure last year when he got hurt so this game is personal. The 1/3 Miami Dolphins are in New York on MNF to take on the 5/2 Jets. The news is that Rex Ryan is being forced to start Geno Smith. Last year when the Dolphins needed to beat the Jets to make the play-offs they could not do it.
Bet the New England Patriots @ 29/20
Take a Flyer on the New York Jets @ 5/2
AFC North
The 8/5 Cleveland Browns go to Orchard Park to take on the 5/9 Buffalo Bills as above and we think Hoyer is up to the task. The 12/5 San Diego Chargers visit the 5/14 Baltimore Ravens while the 9/5 New Orleans Saints visit the 5/11 Pittsburgh Steelers. Not long ago the Chargers would have been 11/10 at the most and it is interesting that the odds on the 4-7 Saints are only 3/4ths of the odds on the 7-4 Chargers. We don’t expect New Orleans to have any more luck in Pittsburgh than they did last week at home against the Ravens (Pittsburgh thumped Baltimore 43-23 last they met) however San Diego must win this game (they are looking down the barrel at New England and Denver) to keep their play-off hopes alive. And finally, the 5/9 Bengals visit the 8/5 Bucs in Tampa where Cinci has to win to keep their ½ game lead on the pack. The Bengals only got a tie from the Panthers when they went to Carolina in a division where the 2-9 Bucs are only 2 games out of first place with 5 games to play. If we bet favorites we would take the Steelers and the Bengals but we don’t so we won’t.
Bet the Cleveland Browns @ 8/5
AFC South
The 1/5 Indianapolis Colts host the 7/2 Washington Redskins (Colt McCoy version – see below) and the 27/20 Jags host the 20/31 Giants (see below) in a couple of games worth avoiding the favorite. In the other divisional match-up 11-4 Tennessee is at 2/7 Houston. In an alternate reality the Coltys finish up at 9-7 overtaken by the Texans who ride Thaddeus Lewis to run the table and take the division at 10-6 but in this reality we avoid the AFC South altogether.
Take a Pass on the AFC South
AFC West
The 12/5 San Diego Chargers visit the 5/13 Ravens (as above) in a game they pretty much have to win to stay in. Those Madcap 5/2 Oakland Raiders play the 1/3 Rams in St. Louis (see below) looking to increase their winning streak to 2 games while the 4/5 Denver Broncos are at 21/20 Kansas City in a key divisional match-up. The Chiefs were briefly tied with Denver for first place before losing to the Raiders and have to be kicking themselves for letting that slip by. Miami meanwhile had the better of Denver last week before being unable to finish. We see this game as a bit of a watershed moment as we have expected Denver to slide as the weather got cold all year which is right now.
Bet the San Diego Chargers @ 12/5
Bet the Kansas City Chiefs @ 21/20
Take a Flyer on the Madcap Oakland Raiders @ 5/2
NFC East
The Eagles already disposed of the Cowboys. The 27/20 Jacksonville Jaguars host the 20/31 Giants (see below) in a game that the Giants are likely falsely-favored in because of the way they played Dallas last week (see below) leaving the 7/2 Washington Redskins (Colt McCoy version) visiting the 1/5 Colts (see above and below) in a game where we just have a feeling…
Take a Very Small Flyer on the Colt McCoy Version of the Washington Redskins @ 7/2
NFC North
The Lions already thumped the Bears and we already went against the 20/33 Green Bay Packers hosting the 29/20 Patriots. Terry Bridgewater and the 5/7 Minnesota Vikings host the 6/5 Panthers outdoors in the freezing cold. We can’t see Terry or Cam Newton thriving in what may end up a 6-3 game.
Take a Pass on the NFC North
NFC South
We don’t like the 9/5 New Orleans Saints at 5/11 Pittsburgh, the 8/5 Bucs at 5/9 Cincinnati or the 6/5 Panthers at 5/7 Minnesota as above. In the other game, the 21/20 Atlanta Falcons host the 4/5 Arizona Cardinals (Drew Stanton version). This could be a close game as Stanton can’t move the ball but the Falcons give up a league high 400+ yards per game whereas the Falcons can score some points but the Arizona defence is the reason they have the best record in the NFC (tied with New England for best in the NFL). Too close to call (in other words, we have no clue).
Take a Pass on the NFC South
NFC West
As expected, the Seahawks ate the 49ers lunch for them (or Thanksgiving dinner we guess) as San Fran cannot score any points with the clown prince (Kaepernick) under center. We already took a flyer on the wild and crazy 5/2 Raiders over the 1/3 Rams and don’t have a clue about the 21/20 Atlanta Falcons hosting the 4/5 Arizona Cardinals (Drew Stanton version).
Take a Pass on the NFC West
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