The NFL in this moment - Week 17

NFL – Week 17

It seems like only yesterday Jadeveon Clowney was picked first overall and yet it’s Christmas and that means the final weekend of the NFL’s 2014 regular season is already upon us. Our bets from our early prognostications are coming due with some success. Our wager that the Denver Broncos would miss the play-offs @ 4/1 is of course a loser however the same wager on the San Francisco 49ers shall be paying us a healthy 5/2. If the Lions somehow beat the Packers and Peyton Manning loses to the Raiders our wager on Tom Brady for MVP could still pay off at 8/1. We bet a double on New England and Green Bay winning their respective conferences at close to 30/1 that has a pretty good shot however our very favorite wager from the pre-season was getting even money on Washington winning under 7.5 games.

Onto Week 17, the final slate of games is always a difficult one to figure as there is no way to know which teams will be playing to win, which will be looking to improve their draft order and which want to see what they have deeper into their roster however a unique situation is created whereby “playoff scenario” combination bets can be played for fun. Some such bets we like this weekend are Houston to make the play-offs (Baltimore must lose/San Diego must lose/Houston must win), Denver to not get a bye (including the Oakland Raiders at a whopping 10/1)

Being the last week it is a really weird one. The goal is the same though, to make money. I am throwing out a lot of rules as they are more for over the whole season whereas these games should be treated as play-off games as the ones that matter are “de facto” playoff games and the others are “best guess” on team’s agendas. (Below, please find a customer's [my brother] actual custom bet sheet based on the amount he plays each week, the teams he likes to watch [and therefore wager on] and the week's schedule):

Special Selection(s)

Buffalo Bills	2/1	+5.0
New England Patriots	5/12	-5.0

Normally with the Patriots being the only play but under the minimum (2/3) odds (they would need to be 8/12 to qualify) this would be a pass however as I fancy myself a bit of a Patriot expert I felt while watching Belichick on all of the Boston area “Hype Shows” (Patriots Football Weekly, Patriots this Week and Patriots All Access) he definitely wants to win so if these guys want to play in the play-offs they better had. The Public seems scared off by the fact that they already clinched home field as the odds should be 5/24 instead of 5/12. STAY AWAY FROM THE SPREAD BY ALL ACCOUNTS. Normally we believe the “regular” point spread wagers to be sucker bets however in this case it is doubly so. Unless you think Orton can beat Revis & Co you can bet as much as you want on New England as a Special Selection.

Bet $300 on New England @ 5/12 (Potential Return $425.00)

New Orleans Saints	10/21	-4.0
Tampa Bay Bucs	7/4	+4.0

Here is another game like the New England one with the Saints being the only play but under the minimum (2/3) odds that would be a pass however Lovie Smith has not done much right this season but the thing he does best (lose) is what is required here to hang onto the first overall pick so you can bet as much as you want on the Saints as a Special Selection.

Bet $300 to win on the New Orleans Saints @ 10/21 (Potential Return $442.85)

Primary Selection(s)

Arizona Cardinals	5/2	+6.5
San Francisco 49ers	1/3	-6.5

While taking advantage of the General Public’s inability to accurately assess the inherent risk in their wagers is what we do here, their ability to ignore what is right in front of them and to continue to pound away at a dead horse still astounds us from time-to-time with the 2014 San Francisco 49ers being this year’s bob-tailed nag of choice. We made a significant wager on San Francisco to miss the post-season at 5/2 during pre-season so have had our eyes on the prize since the off-season. Despite the fact that the 49ers have failed to beat a team with a winning record since Week 5 or any team whatsoever for over a month (including the 3-12 Oakland Raiders) San Francisco continues to be prohibitively favoured by John Q. yet again this week, against a team tied for the highest winning percentage (0.733) in the NFC. During the past five weeks San Fran failed to reach double digits in points scored twice and their 35 point outburst last Sunday (in yet another losing effort) exceeded their meagre offensive output from the preceding four weeks combined by five points. While Arizona has had struggles of their own and are now down to deciding between their third and fourth stringer for this week’s starter at QB they have won two of their last three (including a win over play-off contender Kansas City) and remain in the hunt for top seed overall. The 7-8 49ers aren’t going to have any more luck scoring points against Arizona than they had against, for example, Oakland so at 5/2 the Cardinals become our preferred Primary Selection.

Bet $120 on the Arizona Cardinals @ 5/2 (Potential Return $420.00)

Oakland Raiders	9/1	+14.0
Denver Broncos	1/16	-14.0

Even if the Raiders weren’t turning into a decent football team 9/1 would be tempting. As with Monday when they were handing out money for nothing (I did not manage to get any chicks for free however unless you count porn) in Cincinnati John Q. Public’s inability or unwillingness to accept the fact that Peyton Manning is all warshed up is once again leading to beautiful betting opportunities like this here one. In the last five games the Raiders have for all intents and purposes knocked Kansas City, San Francisco and Buffalo out of the play-offs after losing their first ten games. We see no reason whatsoever why they should not, as their grand finale, knock the Bronco’s out of their First Round Bye. The weather should be around or below freezing which seems to render Manning completely ineffective at the end of his career here. As hard as it may be to believe, Oakland qualifies as Primary Selection here on merit and with their obscene odds they also qualify as a Double Woof Woof Go (over 5/1) Selection.

Bet $60 On the Oakland Raiders @ 9/1 as a Primary Selection (Potential return $600.00)

-AND-

Bet $40 On the Oakland Raiders @ 9/1 as a Double Woof Woof Go Long Shot Selection (Potential return $400.00)

Cleveland Browns	27/5	+13.0
Baltimore Ravens	1/8	-13.0

You might want to stay away here but whatever you do DON’T BET THE RAVENS. I think the Browns defence is going to want to make up for last week and go out on a high note. We are guessing that the Cleveland defence will put up 7 points and set up a chip shot field goal and that the Browns special teams will chip in another 7 while holding the Ravens to 13 total points. The Browns offence won’t need to score any points which is why it doesn’t matter who is quarterback so long as he doesn’t turn the ball over. The reason we like this game so much is that this is where following things so closely this year pays off. Kubiak isn’t just a shit coach, he is one of the worst coaches in the league. All you need to do is stop Forsett and it is game over. The Browns will do that and would have beaten the Ravens last time if they would have made those two field goals they missed. Plus the odds are great making Cleveland a Primary Selection

Bet $60 win on Browns @ 27/5 (Potential Return $384.00)

Long Shot Selection(s)

St. Louis Rams	26/5	+12.5
Seattle Seahawks	2/15	-12.5

Those who have do seem to get. Yet another delicious long shot here with the Rams, looking to complete their season sweep as the underdog, travelling up to KurtCobainland to take on a Seahawk squad drunk to a man on hyperbole and in agonizing pain from patting themselves on the back so often, so much so that they are starting to believe their own press. The Seahawks will in all likelihood win on Sunday nevertheless the Rams are the play here. In a way I hope the Rams do lose as I would much prefer to see the Seahawk’s rude awakening come in the play-offs, leaving them no time to get their act together, on the outside looking in.

Bet $20 On the St. Louis Rams @ 26/5 as a Woof Woof Go Long Shot Selection (Potential return $124)

Secondary Selection(s)

Cincinnati Bengals	33/20	+3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers	10/19	-3.5

The Cincinnati Bengals are in first place and a victory here keeps them in the running for a play-off bye (if the Broncos lose as we expect) and ensures a home-playoff game where Andy Dalton is far more likely to break his post season cherry against these very same Steelers. Pittsburgh has made things difficult for themselves all season long so there is no reason to expect them to stop now. The Bengals qualify as a solid Secondary Selection.

Bet $40 on the Cincinnati Bengals @33/20 (Potential Return $106.00)

Chicago Bears	11/5	+6.0
Minnesota Vikings	5/13	-6.0

Perfect example of taking advantage of skewed public perception. Cutler stinks, no doubt, and the Bear defence sucks HOWEVER Teddy Bridgewater also sucks, worse even. This game should be at evens with the Vikings ending up slight faves due to home field BUT it really isn’t their home field (they have no idea how the stadium plays either plus it is outside in pretty chilly temps so the crowd won’t be much of a factor). The Bears are the play at 11/5 in this Secondary Selection.

Bet $40 win on Bears @ 11/5 (Potential Return $128.00)

New York Jets	11/5	+6.0
Miami Dolphins	5/13	-6.0

Ross has already guaranteed Philbin he is coming back while Rex wants to go out a winner. We thought Rex was going to cry when Wilfork blocked that field goal last week. Treating as a Secondary Selection.

Bet $40 win on Jets @ 11/5 (Potential Return $128.00)

Tertiary Selection(s)

Carolina Panthers	6/4	+3.0
Atlanta Falcons	10/17	-3.0

With so little to choose between these two collections of knuckleheads the odds are a way out-of-whack. Atlanta’s lone win outside the division was a comedy of errors where the only offensive points the Falcons scored besides Field Goals were on a gift wrapped TD (a Stanton Int from the Cards 20) while the Panthers wins over the Bears and Lions were hardly signature “W”’s not to mention 4 months ago. This here is yer standard Tertiary Selection (less than 2/1).

Bet $20 to Win on the Carolina Panthers (Potential Return $50)

Games to Avoid

Detroit Lions	11/4	+7.5
Green Bay Packers	2/7	-7.5

The Detroit Lions annual folding up like a cheap suit routine had yet to find it’s full stride as at last weekend however their string of games against Jay Cutler/Last overall Tampa/Teddy Bridgewater/Jimmy Claussen is now over and they now get Aaron Rodgers then Tony Romo then the Golf Course. Even so, this game could be closer than you might expect so stay well away from the standard spread. If you absolutely have to bet this game you can get the Packers -1.5 @ 4/11 (which is better than 2/7) but really you should pass

Jacksonville Jaguars	7/2	+9.5
Houston Texans	1/5	-9.5

Keenum is going to get his second win here but by how much is anyone’s guess. You can safely use Houston to bulk up a multiple ticket but at 1/5 there is nothing in it for a straight up bet. This is where people get sucked in and bet the spread. If you are going to do that, bet an alternative spread like Texans -17 @ 7/4 (almost 2/1) but really you should pass

Indianapolis Colts	5/16	-7.0
Tennessee Titans	13/5	+7.0

Most any other team and I would advise betting against Indy but I think the Titans are the very worst team in the league presently. Stay away from this one

San Diego Chargers	20/21	+1.0
Kansas City Chiefs	20/23	-1.0

This game can go either way even with Alex Smith out as the other guy is supposed to be pretty good and Smith ain’t all that. A repeat of last years (like the Jets/Fish) decided at the end. Betting this game makes as much sense as going to a beach resort with your wife – There are many better options and the outcome is ripe for disaster

Philadelphia Eagles	23/20	+2.5
New York Giants	20/27	-2.5

Good Sanchez or Bad Sanchez? Good Eli or Bad Eli? Pass

Dallas Cowboys	10/23	-5.5
Washington Redskins	19/10	+5.5

The Cowboys are neither “First Round Bye” material nor “12-4” material despite the fact that Jerry Lewis Jones desperately wishes they were. This is Griffin’s last chance to strut his stuff before major decisions must be made. It is going to be cold and wet and nasty and despite the Cowboy’s road record this year the team doesn’t fit the classic “Road Warrior” template as Murray ain’t no power back and Romo is not a true “Pocket Passer”. This is exactly the kind of game that Romo leaves you scratching you head over. To fit the Selection Matrix the Redskins would need to be over 2/1 and since part of the recipe calls for Griffin to shoot the lights out we pass (we told you Warshington last week @ 11/4). Whatever you do, DO NOT BET THE COWBOYS