The NFL in this Moment - An Early Look at Week 16

NFL Week 16

We had a pretty good Week 15 despite Fitzpatrick breaking his leg in an otherwise very winnable game for the Texans, Colt McCoy going down in Washington and Gruden going with Griffin instead of Cousins, the officials gifting Seattle a touchdown on a clean hit as per Blandino and Phillip Rivers unable to get anything going much before the fourth quarter when he got close but then threw two killer Int’s.

On the positive side two of our three Primary Selections (x3) hit (Dallas and Arizona), we stayed away from the Pittsburgh at Atlanta game, had 19/10 Buffalo (x1.5) downing Green Bay (for a 420 return straight up), did not take Minnesota (we took Washington our longshot at 5/2) although had Bridgewater not knock Minnesota out of field goal range in the final minute…. If Detroit needed that kind of luck to beat Bridgewater what are their chances of beating Green Bay or New England at home? Slim and his brother None and Slim just left town.  

In summary, San Fran (x3), Houston and San Diego (x2) and Washington were collectively -800 while Arizona (x3), Dallas (x3) and Buffalo (x 1.5) were +2040 gross return or an overall profit of 80% from our Selection Matrix (Subscription Required). We hope that our strategy of betting teams at favorable odds is getting through to our readers. On to Week 16 and with so many teams still in the hunt for the post-season there are some pretty good games to look at seriously.

17/35 Baltimore Ravens (9-5) @ 17/10 Houston Texans

Most people will cede that this game will be easy pickings for the Ravens because of the quarterback situation in Houston however we are not most people. Case Keenum, and Thad Lewis to a slightly lesser extent, put together some outstanding drives last season and were incredibly good for stretches. We thought Keenum played really well in the Texans 34-31 loss to the Patriots and still believe that he could be very, very good if say Houston were willing to invest as many starts in him as Washington has in Griffin. Thad Lewis showed some guts and went 2-3 in Buffalo in another situation where the guy needs some starts to blossom. With all of the bum quarterbacks in the league one would think that these guys should get a shot.

The Ravens need this one dearly as they try to wrest at least a Wild Card and have been playing better ball recently although they were behind Jacksonville for two and a half quarters on Sunday.  The first glance easy winner however does not look like such a lock as one looks deeper. The Raven offence has not been consistent and their defence was unable to hold a lead against San Diego a few weeks ago. Every one of Baltimore out-of-division victories has come against teams with losing records, bad teams, except Miami who could easily finish 7-9 the way they are falling apart again this year. Tannehill is not the guy.

The Texans meanwhile have been consistently good on defence holding teams to 22 or less points over the past five weeks since their bye.  JJ Watt is playing out of this world and the rest of the defence is following his lead. Andre Johnson, Keenan’s favourite target last year should be back this week. If the Texan defence can hold Baltimore to under 20 points can Keenum lead the offence to more points? We believe the answer is yes and expect the odds to shift upwards on Houston if, when and as Keenum is named as the starter, which we think he will be as he has a rapport with most of the receivers. Houston is the play here so long as Keenum starts.

8/5 Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) at 5/9 Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)

Everyone seems to have written off the Chiefs after losing to Oakland, Denver and Arizona however they are the only team to have beaten Seattle and New England this year. Kansas City can play some good football. Meanwhile, the Steelers are most probably more inconsistent and always seem to make thing tough on themselves. If Denver beats Cincinnati as we expect and the Texans can pull the upset on Baltimore as home dogs a win here would put the Steelers all alone in first place. Making this exactly the kind of game that the Steelers have been losing of late, never making things easy on themselves.

Andy Reid has had a lot of success in KC, looking at the world as a definite force in the AFC the way they beat the Patriots, and to a lesser extent the Seahawk, Chargers and Bills. We expect them to make the play-offs again this year however the loss to the Raiders turned this game into a must win. The Chiefs have had San Diego’s number of late, almost winning last year without even trying in Week 17. The Chiefs will be trying this year to be certain.  Although it is possible, there have only been two seasons where even 11-5 did not guarantee a play-off berth and the AFC North teams may very well get blanked this weekend opening the door for some 10-6 teams. Kansas City needs this one to get there and were betting that they do.

1/5 New England Patriots (11-3) @ 21/5 New York Jets (3-11)

The Jets have turned it around a bit lately leading Miami for most of the game, losing in overtime to the Vikings before finally getting a win over Tennessee last Sunday. Looking very much like Rex Ryan’s Swan Song no doubt he would absolutely cherish knocking the Patriots out of top-seed on the way out the door. The Jets played the Patriots pretty close (27-25) in Foxborough and always seem to play at least twice as good against New England than other teams, especially at home.

Meanwhile Tom terrific has been having periods of limited production at times lately however the Patriot defence has stood tall, especially in the second half were they have not surrendered a touchdown since they blew out Indy the week after their bye when an extremely questionable third and long conversion led to the only TD given up in the second half since November 2^nd. The defence has only allowed 6 points total in the second half over the past four games, three of which were against teams currently 8-6 or better (Green Bay, Detroit and San Diego). Matt Patricia’s second half adjustments have been nothing short of outstanding.

Regardless of all this, the Jets are over 4/1 and could hit 5/1 or better by game time as “bridge jumpers” are bound to bet the Patriots off the board. If Rex can stymie Brady with his creative defences, although without a quality secondary this may prove impossible, and put together a solid ground game he could pull off the huge upset – It would not be the first time but would definitely be the last time. Just for fun, we are going to take a small flyer (x 0.25)on the Jets.

5/12 Buffalo Bills (8-6) @ 11/5 Oakland Raiders (2-12)

In a classic “Trap Game” situation, it is hard to imagine this group of relative newcomers to December relevance to NOT be looking ahead to the Patriots. Last week Buffalo may have beaten Green Bay but with zero offensive touchdowns and Orton putting together a 54.2 QB Rating to say their offence leaves much to be desired would be an understatement. How ironic would it be if Thad Lewis powers Houston to an upset win while Orton flounders in Oakland?

Meanwhile Oakland has won alternate games the past month, beating pretty good teams in Kansas City and San Francisco, and are due to hit if that pattern holds. Unfortunately, odds of 7/2 are things of the past with a meager 2.2/1 being offered here. We expect the Bills to stumble, because that is what they do, on their way to an 8-8 finish. Take Oakland as a Tertiary (x 1.0) especially if the odds drift up on the strength of Buffalo’s improbable (to most, we had it) win over the Packers.

2/7 Seattle Seahawks (10-4) @ 33/10 Arizona Cardinals (11-3)

All of the “experts” are crowning Seattle just a tad too early being either unable or unwilling to look at the facts. Seattle has a terrible offence. Last week they had one good drive the entire game and needed the worst call of the season on a failed third down conversion after a fortunate punt return and a 19 yard high school-ish scramble to score their second TD that iced the 49ers. In Reality, Gore went out in the first half with a concussion and Kaepernick was terrible moreso than Seattle’s defence was responsible.

Arizona on the other hand was one of our three primary selections last week and held the Rams to two field goals the entire game. Yes Arizona has a problem at quarterback but Seattle’s offence is no match for the Cardinal’s defence which has really stepped up since Carson Palmer went down. We cannot see them giving up any points to Seattle in a game of this magnitude. Arians is a genius at getting his teams ready to pay at the very top end of their abilities. Perhaps on special teams, maybe a defensive forced fumble and touchdown or key pick six but somehow the Cardinals will score – More than the Seahawks. It is bizzare that we keep getting outstanding odds on the best team in the NFC. Arians thinks it is hilarious – We are simply happy for the money-for-nothing (sadly no chicks for free). Nail the Cardinals as a Primary (x 3) Juanmoretime.

11/17 Denver Broncos (11-3) @ 6/4 Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1)

Cincinnati sure had thrown some stinkers this year but the way they dominated Cleveland last Sunday was very impressive. We are not referring to the way they shut down Manziel – That was more-or-less expected. What was surprising was the way they scored all those points on what is thought to be the better defence in Cleveland. Perhaps Manziel’s ineptitude broke their will, but the Bengals put together four long scoring drives against a defence that had been playing great football.

Denver meanwhile did not play well out in San Diego scoring a single TD with Manning coming in and going out of the game and coming back in. His passes look brutal, resembling spirals not at all, but they are amazingly accurate – For now. This has to be his last season and if the forecast holds and it is below freezing at game-time it could very well be too much for him. What drives him at this point to endure all that pain is anyone’s guess but whatever it is it is not healthy. It would be awful to see him get crippled out there but he refuses to walk away.

We expect Cincinnati to hit Manning early and often which they will be able to do with aggressive contact within the five yard limit to throw off the timing of those quick darts Manning fires and if they switch coverers on Denver’s pick plays – It can be done. In all likelihood the Broncos will find a way to win but at 6/4 you can bet the Bengals as a Tertiary (x 1) Selection.