The NFL in this moment - Week 15

NFL Week 15

Welcome to the Monkey House

Welcome to the final three weeks of the NFL season. One of my very favorite quotes attributed to the Buddha (the REAL Buddha, not the NFL Buddha) is “The mind is like a drunk monkey” hence the title of this bit. At this point in the season bettors are thinking entirely too much and given the vast body of plays and performances available for consideration coupled with our basic premise that pretty much any team can win any game  some of the most outlandish scenario’s develop.

Take the penultimate Thursday Night Football match of the season (see below):

For more absurdity, let us take a look at some of Sunday’s tilts with an eye to profiting from further skewed perceptions:

NFC East

6/4 Dallas Cowboys (9-4) at 10/17 Philadelphia Eagles (9-4)

When the Cowboys were heavily favored on Thanksgiving the Eagles were the play. Romo has had more time to heal, Dallas has broken the 8-8 curse and Murray has rediscovered hard running. The Eagles on the other hand suffered a demoralizing loss to Seattle and Mark Sanchez displayed his true quality and we are down to the final three. This time the Cowboys at 6/4 are the play.

The first of two skewars (a word we invented – Skewar – A wagering opportunity where public perception is skewed to the point where the odds on the event are uncorrelated to reality) has the Cowboys visiting Philadelphia Pa on national television to decide first place entering the final furlong (the final eighth of the schedule). On Thanksgiving, a Cowboy’s squad featuring one very banged up Tony Romo was heavily favored and we strongly recommended not betting on Dallas without pushing a bet on the Eagles because we do not trust Mark Sanchez.

After being spanked by the Seahawks so blatantly last weekend the odds on this one boggle the mind. A likely explanation is that the public is putting way too much stock in the strength of a Seahawk defence that the Cowboys got past with little trouble earlier in the year. It is our view that the Eagles got soundly beaten last week because of persistent offensive line struggles combine with the ineptitude of the Butt Fumbler. The reality of the situation is that Romo and Company looked good putting up 41 against the woeful Bears in a game that, unlike the squeaker over the Giants (who even the woeful Bears would have beaten two weeks ago), showed that Tony is more-or-less back in form.

In this game we look for Dallas to set up the run with the pass and take advantage of the time of possession inequity Chip Kelly creates with his questionable (at the NFL level) unconventional offence by pounding Murray down the throat of the Eagles “D”, especially in the second half. We expect the Eagles to go into half-time with a lead that the Cowboys will erode in the third quarter setting up an excellent (to watch at least) fourth quarter. Given the fact that it is a SNF nationwide broadcast you can be assured that the officials will do their part to keep the televisions turned on and set up and end-of-game victory (and defeat).  It is our belief that this scenario is very likely to be played out and the edge goes to Romo over Sanchez in such a case.

We see this game as a virtual Pick ‘Em so as the edge Philly gets from playing at home is offset by the Romo/Sanchez dynamic if, when and as the two-minute drill decides the game. As such, the odds alone make Dallas the play here however given the edge Dallas appears to have moves them into Primary Selection territory alongside Arizona and the others listed below.

5/2 Washington Redskins (3-10) at 1/3 New York Giants (4-9).

Washington does not have a good team and Colt McCoy is a liability however neither do the Giants. Normally we would steer clear of this game but the last 3 weeks of the season are different. If the Redskins were to start Kirk Cousins and he played well they would win easily. McCoy versus Manning could go either way with the Giants having a slight advantage but at 12/5 you have to take the Redskins unless Griffin starts.

*** McCoy named starter Friday 12/12/14

The perception of this match may not be skewed to the degree of the one above nevertheless a team that supplied the Jacksonville Jaguars with their second win of the season a scant two weeks ago prior to defeating the team most probably playing the worst AT THE MOMENT in the entire league, Tennessee, with a record of 4-9 has no business being 1/3 over a 3-10 team (who also beat Tennessee this season with current QB Colt McCoy under center) regardless of where the game is being played nevertheless that is the situation here as Eli Manning any the New York Giants are just that over Colt McCoy’s Warshington Redskins.

A lot of players on both of these teams do not have a guaranteed contract for next year, including quarterbacks McCoy and Manning (it would only cast the Giants $2.25mm to dump Eli), but would very much like to have one making this game significantly more meaningful to the players than John Q. Public.  The Giants deserve to be very slight favorites on performance with a kicker for having home field advantage and as such it is our estimation the correct money line on them should be very near 4/6 (2/3) suggesting that a wager on New York would be anything but skilful. Washington comes up on our grid as a Long Shot Selection in this instance or even a Tertiary Selection with a caveat emptor.

NFC North

13/4 Minnesota Vikings (6-7) at 2/9 Detroit Lions (9-4)

Last year when the Lions were fighting for a playoff spot and swooning out of the picture late Matt Cassel came into Detroit and beat them. While Teddy Bridgewater can’t do what Matt Cassel can yet he can do the things Teddy Bridgewater can and that is starting to work. If the Lions show up with their “A” game it will be hard for the Vikings to win but Detroit has not done so since November 9th and 2-9 is half the odds they should be so it follows that the Vikings are twice the odds they should be and as such the play.

Teddy Bridgewater, a draft choice that we berated the Vikings for making earlier this year, has turned out to be much more effective than we anticipated (which actually a bad thing is for the Vikings, “The Good is often the Enemy of the Great” and all that) brings his act to Ford Field for one of the late games this Sunday to take on Matthew Stafford and an equally unlikely highly effective defence as an integral part of his Detroit Lions. At first glance the Lions look like the logical favorite to be sure, although 4/9 would be a more appropriate money line, however this does not take recent history into account as the Lions have folded up like a cheap suit each season (falling from 6-3 to 7-9 last year, 4-4 to 4-12 the year before) since their one game play-off run in 2011.

Minnesota’s transition to a vehicle that runs on Bridgewater’s dink and dunk passing attack has been severely hampered with running back Jerrick McKinnon going down and with seemingly no one available to take his place (Matt Asiata is more of a full back that a tail back). How Aldon Smith can be playing whilst Adrian Peterson still sits is a mystery to us given that Smith was caught wasted with enough firepower to take out a village. Notwithstanding that, Zimmer must play the hand he was dealt and although selecting injury-prone Barr (out again this week) over others certainly hasn’t helped Mike is doing a damn fine job nevertheless. This Viking’s re-vamped defence can play some ball.

The jury is still out as to whether this Lions defence is any good or just plain lucky. Drew Stanton carved over 300 yards and two TD’s out of it, Tom Brady made it look a lot more like Swiss Cheese than Provolone while Cam Newton absolutely dominated them. The offence on the other hand recently completed a four game run during which they scored only three touchdowns total and one of the teams in the mix was the Atlanta Falcons who give up over three touchdowns per GAME on average. Sadly, Calvin Johnson has finally come back to earth and is merely a very good receiver these days, still able to dominate bad teams but struggling against the better defences such as Arizona (Peterson) and New England (Browner & McCourty).

This game does not qualify on merit for our wagering Matrix as there are too many unpredictable variables with Minnesota and the odds on Detroit are too short however the odds on Minnesota make them a possibility as a Long Shot Selection. We like other games as our first choices for our Woof Woof Go – Long Shot Plays of the Week however you may see it differently. No matter which way you choose to go with your Long Shot Selection(s) 

DO NOT BET DETROIT.

10/21 Green Bay Packers (10-3) at 7/4 Buffalo Bills (7-6)

We have been saying for two years that all the Bills need to contend is an NFL caliber starter but they still do not have one (not surprising since there are less than 16 in the 32 team league). This game comes down to whether or not Kyle Orton can play lights out for 60 minutes and the odds are pretty fair in that respect.

Green Bay looked ripe-for-the-picking on Monday night giving up 41 points to the Falcons however you had the feeling all game that Rogers would be able to score whatever points were needed whenever he wanted to. A lot of people feel that the Packers “beat” New England pretty easily but how many times this year have Matt Patricia, Josh McDaniels, Brady, Revis and McCourty all made a huge mistake in the same game? The Packers can be had (they did lose to the Lions after all) although it would practically take a perfect storm for that to happen.

The questions here all pertain to the Buffalo Bills save one. With Green Bay, we know that Aaron Rodgers with a “D” (as in Discount, Double-check) is playing nearly flawless football, Jordy Nelson has maybe succeeded Calvin Johnson as the best in the business, Eddy Lacy is one hell of a running back, HaHa Clinton Dix is no laughing matter, Clay Matthews plays like a force of nature and Julius Peppers is undergoing a renaissance however we could not escape the felling that the group more-or-less peaked too early (for the Patriot game perhaps) during the Falcons game. While a regular season loss would possibly have serious implications on the Packer’s post season seed a playoff loss kind of knocks the wheels off the whole thing. So the question surrounding Green Bay is whether they need a loss to regain their focus, to stoke their hunger? If the Packers truly do need a loss to re-focus no doubt the Bills would be most happy to oblige.

Over in the place Tom Brady doesn’t like to go (“I don't know if you guys have ever been to the hotels in Buffalo — they're not the nicest places in the world”) Coach Marrone is doing a great job with the defence despite losing Alonzo and very good corner and returner Leodis McElvin for the season, Sammy Watkins is proving to indeed be “all that”, Fred Jackson is running hard picking up the slack awaiting CJ Spiller’s return from the IR. The Bills lead the league in sacks and are at least somewhat relevant in December for the first time since 2007 (when curiously there were also 7-6 although that didn’t end nearly as well [7-9] as they doubtless would have liked) back when Marshawn Lynch was fumbling his way out of town. Marrone has been much more decisive this year shelving no-hoper EJ Manuel early enough to stay in the hunt this season and sending head case Mike Williams out-of-town with his suit case earlier this month.

Which brings us to the crux of the matter, Kyle Orton. After wasting 15 precious starts on hopeless case Manuel (he was THE worst starter in the league, except for maybe “Potential Pro Bowler” [LMFAO] Geno Smith), Marrone was forced to go with a limited-potential journeyman and Kyle was the best avbailable. Had Coach Dougie gone with his original instinct and started the 2013 season with Jeff Tuel, who did show promise second time around, the Bills might have a franchise quarterback under development. Hard to tell what the plan is here as the highest rated quarterbacks in the upcoming draft look an awful, and we do mean awful, lot like more of the same. With more and more major college programs going with the most physically advanced prospects over the ones with potential for greatness we wonder if we will ever see another Tom Brady come along. It is looking instead like an endless progression of EJ Manuels.

For the Bills to win this one it would appear that two things must happen. First, the defence must keep Rodgers in check to a certain extent and ensure that the game is not over by half time. This is highly doable especially if they can pressure Rodgers continuously and keep him contained. The second thing that they must do is unfortunately far less doable but it is possible. Orton is going to have to play an extremely good game, pass for 250-300 yards, get the ball into the end zone at least 3 times and, most importantly, throw zero interceptions. In fact, the Bills cannot afford to turn the ball over even once. Given the fact that Rodgers and Nelson can generate a touchdown from anywhere on the field at any time the Bills cannot afford to give the Packers a single extra possession.

So, what indeed is the play here? The odds have shifted (Bills down/Packers up) to pretty near what we calculated however as we almost never play a favorite unless it is part of a hedge our question becomes are the Bills not only good value but ready to jump in the deep end with the big kids and compete at the highest level for a full 60 minutes when every game is a de facto play-off game? Staring down the barrel at the Packers, can Buffalo put their match-up in Foxborough entirely out-of-mind and focus on the task at hand with the required intensity? We are going to guess yes and make the Bills our preferred Tertiary Selection.

NFC South

4/5 Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) at 11/10 Atlanta Falcons (5-8)

The Steelers travel to Atlanta to take on a Falcons squad that has no trouble scoring points (they just put up 41 against the Packers) but doesn’t seem to do a whole lot of other things well. The Falcons have no defence, not a handicap in the NFC South where the other 5-8 team tied for top spot (New Orleans) has no defence either AND is saddled with Rob Ryan. Troy Polomalu looks like an old man out there, Keisel is out for the year as the steel curtain is rusted partially open these days so Levian Bell needs every one of his couple of hundred yards rushing to make up for it and even that wasn’t enough against the Saints. The Steelers could be too in-and-out to trust.

Atlanta is currently tenth in points scored which would be good were they not ninth in points allowed. Matt Ryan HAS played lights out a lot this season (sorry Kyle) but it has mostly gone for nought as is evidenced by their absolute record of 5-8. The problem here is that the Steelers can score in bunches as well (see Roethlisberger’s back-to-back six touchdown games recently) so betting on the Falcons may be too risky.

The Steelers have been bet down to 4/6, the minimum return required for our Selection Matrix (subscription required), which reflects a minor error in calculating the original line more than anything else we presume although we never underestimate the public’s ability  to bet a game off the board. Simply put, if Pittsburgh really wants to make not only the play-offs but a Super Bowl run they are going to have to stop losing winnable games and this game is winnable if nothing else.

Atlanta on the other hand may be 5-8 but are tied for first place as well.  The Falcons have most certainly been scoring points (as above) as Ryan is having a good year playing extremely well against the “better” defences putting up QB Ratings over 105 against Arizona, Detroit and Green Bay. Roddy White is always hurt but could get to 1,000 yards again (presently just over 700) this year especially if Julio actually got hurt at Lambeau Monday night last. Not knowing if the Saints are going to win on Monday night next and meeting them and the Panthers after this one match turn it into a de facto play-off game for them as well despite their record. Everyone does start the post season at 0-0 after all.

The Steelers have a very prolific offence this year and when it is on they put up crazy numbers. We could throw all kinds of stats at you however the most important ones from our perspective, points scored and allowed, have the Falcons only allowing less than two points per game more than Pittsburgh (26.3 to 24.5) while trailing the Steelers about the same amount (25.2 to 27.8) in the points scored category however Ryan was without Roddy White for a couple of games while Roethlisberger has had all of his favorite targets there every game. Other factors have the Falcons playing at home where they are 3-3 (Pittsburgh is 4-3 on the road) and up to 13/10 on the money line.

This is one of those games where both teams come up on our Selection Matrix (subscription required) which normally are automatic non-plays however at this time of year being in first place means a lot, even if a team is 5-8, and this looks to be one of the better games to watch this weekend (although you probably need Game Pass or the equivalent to see it) and enhancing your viewing experience is the whole point here. At 13/10 the ROI on the Falcons (plus the first place factor) is sufficient to warrant their selection as a Tertiary Selection in our matrix. In other words, take the Falcons BUT if you are a Steelers Fan a wager on Pittsburgh would not be a bad play.

NFC West

19/10 Arizona Cardinals (10-3) at 10/23 St. Louis Rams (6-7)

Arizona was most definitely the play (see below)

7/2 San Francisco 49ers (7-6) at 1/5 Seattle Seahawks (9-4)

Seattle’s collective head is exploding and overconfidence mixed with conceit is never attractive. Their offence looks like High School football and should not be too much trouble for a clever DC to figure out. We expect teams to start using their fastest and best tackling special teamer to “spy” Wilson (or something along those lines) as the solution will ultimately prove very simple. Look for the 49ers to pound the rock with Gore and shut down Wilson to make a statement of their own. They are too proud (and too good) to go down with a whimper and 7/2 amply offsets the risk.

All this noise about Richard Sherman and the Legion of whatever please stop already would you? The Seahawks just shut-down Mark Sanchez, not Joe Montana or Tom Brady for goodness sakes. Annoying, isn’t it? Makes you want to punch Richard Sheman in the face and shut his mouth for him while knocking that smirk off his face. Now imagine you are Alex Boone (6 foot 7, 335 lbs) and you get a chance to run right over Seattle’s vaunted run defence while Frank Gore pounds away at it all game. With all the flak Roman took after the Thanksgiving Day game combined with the un-Godly noise at Century Link you have to believe San Francisco is going to want to run the ball while Boone and company vent all of the frustration the crumbling Harbaugh empire fostered this season all in one place – Seattle. Roman needs to go to ground with the basics: Frank Gore, QB draws and bootlegs, WR screens, slants and deep balls period. Maybe send Vernon Davis to the flat on occasion but have Kaepernick hand off to Gore first, run himself second and fire bullets when he does pass.

Watching the Seahawk offence last weekend was probably our worst experience watching a game this season. Watching Wilson run around like a high school kid was incredibly aggravating as the Eagles had 300 pound Defensive Lineman Fletcher Cox chasing him around all day like Wile E Coyote, achieving similar results. The 49ers have faced him enough to know how to handle him and their defence will also be looking to vent their own frustrations. As hard as it may be to believe, on Thanksgiving the 49ers, who are presently 13/4 (down from 7/2 but still over 3/1), were favored over the Seahawks (a mere 17 days ago). Apparently the public sees the loss to the Raiders last week having a negative effect on San Francisco’s performance this Sunday however humiliating defeats tend to bring out the best in real pros who cannot wait to erase that memory from their psyche.

This game is pretty much a perfect example of what a Primary Selection is in our Selection Matrix (subscription required) as from our perspective the Seahawks are extremely over-rated at 2/9 while San Fran has the psychological edge of having nothing to lose, everything to gain and the strong desire to put the Raiders performance in their rear view mirrors, a solid roster relative to Seattle (Kaepernick CAN play better than Wilson he just has not been doing so) and most importantly are over 3/1. San Francisco is our Play of the Week.

AFC East

29/10 Miami Dolphins (7-6) at 5/19 New England Patriots (10-3)

New England took care of San Diego with ridiculous ease last Sunday night shutting down the oppositions offence completely (Green Bay & Detroit managed a field goal the previous couple of weeks) as they continue to round into post season form. That loss to the Packers seems to have them all fired up with little chance of them leaving anything to chance the rest of the way (New England never seems to have “Trap Games”, at least not in December). This is not good news for the rest of the division as that is who they get the rest of the way starting with Miami. Our apologies to our friend Tim but the Patriots will very likely squish the Fish as payback for the loss in South Beach back in September.

Miami meanwhile is in their annual Tannehill fueled tailspin on their way to 8-8 almost losing to the Jets two weeks ago when Rex Ryan would not let Geno Smith throw the ball and then having been spanked at home by the Ravens last Sunday. Philbin is a lame-duck coach, Tannehill a lame-duck QB and Wallace a lame-duck receiver (sounds like Miami could use a Platyrhynchosist [duck doctor] to heal some legs) but the new offensive line, defensive line and “surging” secondary do give the faithful (including our friend Tim) hope for the incoming regime. We think that Stephen Ross didn’t fire Philbin last year over the Ritchie (whateverhappenedto?) Incognito Affair to show us he would not be forced into it however he will have no trouble dispatching him this year.

We could fill a book writing about this game however despite the fact that we do not anticipate New England losing another game this year (they are our Super Bowl selection) at 5/19 it makes no sense to bet them as there are far superior ROI games to play this week.

10/21 Green Bay Packers (10-3) at 7/4 Buffalo Bills (7-6)

(See NFC North above)

AFC North

10/11 Cincinnati Bengals (8-6-1) at 10/11 Cleveland Browns (7-6)

The Cleveland Browns haven’t been relevant in December since the Patriots Perfect Season (regular anyway) when they missed the play-offs at 10-6 and the 10-6 New York Giants won the Super Bowl. The officials tanked the Browns season and Hoyer’s career last Sunday with a totally bogus PI call to give Andrew Luck yet another tainted “comeback”. It is entirely possible that the league is forcing the Browns to play Manziel to ever increase television ratings (it IS all about the money after all). They get their way (as usual) with Johnny Football getting the start this week.

Andy Dalton’s playoff ineptitude has leaked into the regular season (had to happen sooner or later) as he had a quarterback rating of 2.0 (not a typo) the last time they met while Hoyer mixed the pass and run brilliantly sprinkling 15-20 yard passes all over the field in a 24-3 statement victory. Thanks to that call in Indianapolis however Hoyer doesn’t get the chance to repeat. How the Bengals will deal (or no deal) with Johnny Football is anyone’s guess – As is the outcome.

Move over rover and let Jimi (Johnny Football actually) take over. Manziel better had be Stone Free (Got to got to got to get away) at the NFL level when plays break down, an entirely different proposition than at the college level, as the Browns are favored (5/6) against first-place Cincinnati on Sunday. With Great Expectations attached to the Pip-squeak (according to Marvin Lewis), as Brian Hoyer fades into the background many are wondering just what Johnny can do, especially after his TD drive during his cameo at the end of the Bills game. We are somewhat non-plussed about the whole thing after the stunt the officials pulled in Indy (above) however if the Browns go into Baltimore at 9-6 in Week 17 they may still have a shot at the post season. While there are too many uncertainties surrounding this game to bet on it, it should be fun to watch.

4/5 Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) at 11/10 Atlanta Falcons (5-8)

(See NFC South above)

AFC South

5/2 Houston Texans (7-6) at 1/3 Indianapolis Colts (9-4)

This game would have been for first place had the officials not gifted Indianapolis with their “win” over Cleveland and looking at the odds one must wonder if the fix is in on this game as well. Fitzpatrick is the quintessential in-and-out quarterback whom you never know whether he is going to throw six TD’s or four Int’s, JJ Watt is redefining what it means to be a standout defensive end, Arian Foster might be the best back in the league and Billy O’Brien has got it going on in Houston.

The Colts are yesterday’s news with no running game and not much of a defence. They feasted this year on their schedule (2-11 Jacksonville twice, 2-11 Tennessee, 3-10 Washington, 4-9 NY Giants and with the 2-11 Titans to come Juanmoretime) and the only potential play-off team not to beat them was Andy Dalton and the Bengals in another one of Dalton’s absolutely horrible performances. Indianapolis can lose this game very easily unless Fitzpatrick plays one of HIS bad games (please Lord force the colleges to play pocket quarterbacks again).

At first glance, this year’s model of the Indianapolis Colts looks as good as or better than last year’s when they finished 11-5, a record they will equal if they fall to Houston this week or in Dallas next however from our perspective the only thing similar is the number of wins and losses. Last year the Colts had the toughest schedule in football as per our formula and they scored impressive wins over San Francisco and Kansas City and gutsy wins over Denver and Seattle. This year? No. Rewarded with one of the easiest schedules this year due to rotational scheduling the Colts have feasted on 2-11, 3-10 and 4-9 opponents with a victory over tailing off Cincinnati and their tainted win over Cleveland being this year’s high water marks.

Houston meanwhile has gone from last overall to 7-6 and is still on the periphery of the play-offs although they need to win this road game and beat Baltimore at home next week to have a real shot at the post season. As absurd as it may seem, Billy O’Brien has this team turned around so well that they could go from worst to Super Bowl in a single year. The Texans defence has never been a question mark however apart from Clowney is relatively healthy for a change. JJ Watt plays for Houston (enough said). Arian Foster is a tremendous tail back and De Andre and Andre are an excellent set of receivers. There does not appear to be any glaring deficiencies in their kicking game. Which leaves the quarterback position: Ryan Fitzpatrick.

It is our perception that Andrew Luck is the most over-rated quarterback in the NFL. Time after time we have seen him throw the ball deep late in a game and in trouble only to have to officials flag it for PI and put him in scoring range. It has happened far too often to be a coincidence. Whether it is Isray’s undue influence over all things NFL (perhaps he has files to rival those of J Edgar Hoover) or some obscure mandate to manufacture a star in the absence of a real one for when Manning, Brady and Brees hang ‘em up we have no idea. We only know what we see and we see something goin’ wrong around here. They are thin at receiver outside of TY Hilton, have no running game whatsoever and a lousy defence. They do not belong in the post season this year and will be summarily crushed when they do get in by the first good team they face.

Ryan Fitzpatrick on the other hand in an enigma. A Harvard Man with an excellent intellect he can make the worst decisions at times on the field and turn a great performance into a nightmare one with a few quick interceptions at any time but has a great arm. If Houston does manage to scratch their way into the post season Ryan could play three consecutive error free games and make the tough throws required to run the gauntlet – He does have the ability. It would have to start with a victory here where, due to what we believe to be a gross misconception as to the true quality of the Colts, Houston is a plump 5/2 and is the play here. They come up as a solid Secondary Selection on our Selection Matrix (subscription required).

AFC West

10/21 Denver Broncos (10-3) at 7/4 San Diego Chargers (8-5)

With Manning’s career down to the short strokes this is a very winnable game for the Chargers. Last week Buffalo, whom San Diego steamrollered, gave Denver all they wanted and had Rivers been quarterbacking that team the result would have been different methinks. This Bronco team seems much older than the one in September with Von Miller and the offensive line the only two bright spots of late. Denver is definitely a team trending the wrong way at the worst possible time.

San Diego on the other hand just met a New England Patriot team out to avenge a bitter loss starting to peak for the post season and led into the third quarter. Their defence held amazingly well for a while in the second half forcing three 3 and outs at the start but with the Patriots simply locking them down for the entire second half the Chargers defence ended up giving up some points eventually as the Patriots just kept getting better. The Chargers are home dogs for the second week in a row and must win this game to maintain their tenuous grasp on a Wild Card one and that 7/4 price looks way too good to pass up.

The Denver – San Diego game makes up our final in-depth analysis for the week. Peyton Manning’s play has deteriorated at an alarming rate over the second half of the season and one can only hope he is not risking serious permanent damage to his neck by trotting out there each week. Yes the Broncos have stepped up their running game however getting outplayed for better part of three of the past four games (a loss to the Rams followed by near-losses to the Dolphins and Bills) should be great cause for concern however it certainly is not reflected in the odds as they are huge favorites against a team who, if Denver plays like they did against Miami and Buffalo, will annihilate them.

The San Diego Chargers led going into the fourth quarter over the Patriots last week but could neither close it out nor respond to the Patriots fourth quarter rally as Revis and company locked it down in the second half, not allowing Rivers and the boys to score a single point. It was still a much better performance than Denver put on against the Patriots as the Broncos were never in that game. San Diego has been beset by injuries and very much hope Ryan Matthews can go this week in the backfield.  Having just lost to the Patriots with equally desperate San Francisco and Kansas City to follow this one the Chargers need a win here very much.

It is our perception that this game is now 10/23 Denver’s game to lose. Despite getting manhandled in South Beach we believe the Chargers to be a level above Denver’s recent opponents with a solid defence and Philip Rivers and his passing attack ready to pounce on any weaknesses the Broncos show. And we expect them to show a lot. In fact, we view this game a the delineating point where San Diego re-asserts themselves as THE powerhouse in the AFC West as we expect them to humble if not humiliate Manning as they escort him off to retirement. Denver’s performance from earlier this season still counts for something and as such the Chargers come up on the Selection Matrix (subscription required) as a solid Secondary Selection.

Well, th-th-th-aaaaaats all folks.

Previously on Dexter……..

Welcome to the Monkey House

Welcome to the final three weeks of the NFL season. One of my very favorite quotes attributed to the Buddha (the REAL Buddha, not the NFL Buddha) is “The mind is like a drunk monkey” hence the title of this bit. At this point in the season bettors are thinking entirely too much and given the vast body of plays and performances available for consideration coupled with our basic premise that pretty much any team can win any game  some of the most outlandish scenario’s develop.

Take the penultimate Thursday Night Football match of the season:

Post-Game Quote from the man in the funny hat:

Arizona Cardinals coach Bruce Arians watched his team all but wrap up a playoff spot with a gutsy 12-6 victory in St. Louis on Thursday night. And then he kept taking shots at the Rams. "I love it when nobody says you have a chance to win. There is an 11-3 team and a team that is always 8-8," Arians said. "You figure it out." – WE DID!!!

NFC West

19/10 Arizona Cardinals (10-3) at 10/23 St. Louis Rams (6-7)

Drew Stanton may not be much of a quarterback but he has been winning a lot and 19/10 on the team with the best record in the league playing a 6-7 divisional rival without a quarterback is twilight zone material. Arizona is most definitely the play.

Without a doubt, the St. Louis Rams have played some pretty darn good football this year, particularily of late, nevertheless they are 6-7. Presumably big reasons behind the odds here are their “smoke & mirrors” victory over Seattle, their 13-10 squeaker over the crumbling 49ers (just soundly beaten by the 2-11 Raiders) and the Denver game where they were able to get to Manning and rattle him into ineffectiveness. The rams are coming off two straights wins by a combined score of 76-0 however that was over two teams with a collective record of 4-21.

The Cardinals meanwhile come into the game at a league best record of 10-3 after getting back on-track with a win over Kansas City after a shocking loss to 5-8 but in first place Atlanta. The concern here is not Drew Stanton, the Ram defence or anything St. Louis might throw at them rather if the officials have been mandated to ensure Seattle get a first round bye or Top Seed it doesn’t matter what the Cardinals do or don’t do.

***Update – Late in the first quarter Arizona has been getting annihilated by penalties but have recovered a fumble on the Ram 27 trailing 3-0 – Will the officials let them score?

**Young 'En Aaron Donald sacked Stanton who was down and out at 8:41 of the third.