NFL Week 15
AFC East
29/10 Miami Dolphins (7-6) at 5/19
New England Patriots (10-3)
New England took care of San
Diego with ridiculous ease last Sunday night shutting down the oppositions
offence completely (Green Bay & Detroit managed a field goal the previous
couple of weeks) as they continue to round into post season form. That loss to
the Packers seems to have them all fired up with little chance of them leaving
anything to chance the rest of the way (New England never seems to have “Trap
Games”, at least not in December). This is not good news for the rest of the
division as that is who they get the rest of the way starting with Miami. Our
apologies to our friend Tim but the Patriots will very likely squish the Fish
as payback for the loss in South Beach back in September.
Miami meanwhile is in their
annual Tannehill fueled tailspin on their way to 8-8 almost losing to the Jets
two weeks ago when Rex Ryan would not let Geno Smith throw the ball and then
having been spanked at home by the Ravens last Sunday. Philbin is a lame-duck
coach, Tannehill a lame-duck QB and Wallace a lame-duck receiver (sounds like
Miami could use a Platyrhynchosist [duck doctor] to heal some legs) but the new
offensive line, defensive line and “surging” secondary do give the faithful
(including our friend Tim) hope for the incoming regime. We think that Stephen
Ross didn’t fire Philbin last year over the Ritchie (whateverhappenedto?)
Incognito Affair to show us he would not be forced into it however he will have
no trouble dispatching him this year.
10/13 New York Jets (2-11) at
11/10 Tennessee Titans (2-11)
The New York Jets have had a
terrible season but the Tennessee Titans are a terrible football team. The
titans have no offensive line or quarterback and their defence ain’t all that
despite bright spots like Luke & McCourty. Although you can’t bet on Geno
Smith playing relatively unforced error free if he does the Jets should cruise
to a “W”.
5/11 Green Bay Packers (10-3) at 9/5
Buffalo Bills (7-6)
We have been saying for two
years that all the Bills need to contend is an NFL caliber starter but they
still do not have one (not surprising since there are less than 16 in the 32
team league). This game comes down to whether or not Kyle Orton can play lights
out for 60 minutes and the odds are pretty fair in that respect.
Green Bay looked
ripe-for-the-picking on Monday night giving up 41 points to the Falcons however
you had the feeling all game that Rogers would be able to score whatever points
were needed whenever he wanted to. A lot of people feel that the Packers “beat”
New England pretty easily but how many times this year have Matt Patricia, Josh
McDaniels, Brady, Revis and McCourty all made a huge mistake in the same game?
The Packers can be had (they did lose to the Lions)
AFC North
10/11 Cincinnati Bengals (8-6-1) at
10/11 Cleveland Browns (7-6)
The Cleveland Browns haven’t
been relevant in December since the Patriots Perfect Season (regular anyway)
when they missed the play-offs at 10-6 and the 10-6 New York Giants won the
Super Bowl. The officials tanked the Browns season and Hoyer’s career last
Sunday with a totally bogus PI call to give Andrew Luck yet another tainted
“comeback”. It is entirely possible that the league is forcing the Browns to
play Manziel to ever increase television ratings (it IS all about the money
after all). They get their way (as usual) with Johnny Football getting the
start this week.
Andy Dalton’s playoff
ineptitude has leaked into the regular season (had to happen sooner or later)
as he had a quarterback rating of 2.0 (not a typo) the last time they met while
Hoyer mixed the pass and run brilliantly sprinkling 15-20 yard passes all over
the field in a 24-3 statement victory. Thanks to that call in Indianapolis
however Hoyer doesn’t get the chance to repeat. How the Bengals will deal (or
no deal) with Johnny Football is anyone’s guess – As is the outcome.
13/2 Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11)
at 1/10 Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
The Ravens are 1/10 here.
4/5 Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) at 11/10
Atlanta Falcons (5-8)
The Steelers travel to Atlanta
to take on a Falcons squad that has no trouble scoring points (they just put up
41 against the Packers) but doesn’t seem to do a whole lot of other things
well. The Falcons have no defence, not a handicap in the NFC South where the
other 5-8 team tied for top spot (New Orleans) has no defence either AND is
saddled with Rob Ryan. Troy Polomalu looks like an old man out there, Keisel is
out for the year as the steel curtain is rusted partially open these days so Levian
Bell needs ever one of his couple of hundred yards rushing to make up for it
and even that wasn’t enough against the Saints. The Steelers are just too
in-and-out to trust.
Atlanta is currently tenth in
points scored which would be good were they not ninth in points allowed. Matt
Ryan HAS played lights out a lot this season (sorry Kyle) but it has mostly
gone for nought as is evidenced by their absolute record of 5-8. The problem
here is that the Steelers can score in bunches as well (see Roethlisberger’s
back-to-back six touchdown games recently) so betting on the Falcons is just
too risky.
AFC South
5/2 Houston Texans (7-6) at 1/3 Indianapolis
Colts (9-4)
This game would have been for
first place had the officials not gifted Indianapolis with their “win” over
Cleveland and looking at the odds one must wonder if the fix is in on this game
as well. Fitzpatrick is the quintessential in-and-out quarterback whom you
never know whether he is going to throw six TD’s or four Int’s, JJ Watt is
redefining what it means to be a standout defensive end, Arian Foster might be
the best back in the league and Billy O’Brien has got it going on in Houston.
The Colts are yesterday’s news
with no running game and not much of a defence. They feasted this year on their
schedule (2-11 Jacksonville twice, 2-11 Tennessee, 3-10 Washington, 4-9 NY
Giants and with the 2-11 Titans to come Juanmoretime) and the only potential
play-off team not to beat them was Andy Dalton and the Bengals in another one
of Dalton’s absolutely horrible performances. Indianapolis can lose this game
very easily unless Fitzpatrick plays one of HIS bad games (please Lord force
the colleges to play pocket quarterbacks again).
10/13 New York Jets (2-11) at
11/10 Tennessee Titans (2-11)
The New York Jets have had a
terrible season but the Tennessee Titans are a terrible football team. The
titans have no offensive line or quarterback and their defence ain’t all that
despite bright spots like Luke & McCourty. Although you can’t bet on Geno
Smith playing relatively unforced error free if he does the Jets should cruise
to a “W”.
13/2 Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11)
at 1/10 Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
The Ravens are 1/10 here.
AFC West
10/21 Denver Broncos (10-3) at
7/4 San Diego Chargers (8-5)
With Manning’s career down to
the short strokes this is a very winnable game for the Chargers. Last week
Buffalo, whom San Diego steamrollered, gave Denver all they wanted and had
Rivers been quarterbacking that team the result would have been different
methinks. This Bronco team seems much older than the one in September with Von
Miller and the offensive line the only two bright spots of late. Denver is
definitely a team trending the wrong way at the worst possible time.
San Diego on the other hand
just met a New England Patriot team out to avenge a bitter loss starting to
peak for the post season and led into the third quarter. Their defence held
amazingly well for a while in the second half forcing three 3 and outs at the
start but with the Patriots simply locking them down for the entire second half
the Chargers defence ended up giving up some points eventually as the Patriots just
kept getting better. The Chargers art home dogs for the second week in a row
and must win this game to maintain their tenuous grasp on a Wild Card one and
that 7/4 price looks way too good to pass up.
4/1 Oakland Raiders (2-11) at 1/6
Kansas City Chiefs (8-5)
Oakland has been a favorite of ours since they went to
Carr and have paid us handsomely two of the past three weeks. While the
coaching in San Francisco has held back the team that Mike Singletary built
going back to when Mike Singletary was the coach, just failing at different
levels, that was a good team (with a not so good quarterback) the Raiders beat
last weekend. This week they get the team they beat (with a not so good
quarterback) 3 weeks ago at the beautiful odds of 4/1.
Kansas City has lost three in a row, bunching together
losses at the end of the season just like their team last year did (and that
was a better team) while their one dimensional offence is getting effectively
game planned for seemingly every week now. Andy Reid is a wizard but, just as
Gandalf Greyhame expressed so clearly while under attack by wargs in the Misty
Mountain when he said “I cannot burn snow”, Andy cannot make something out of nothing
for the Chiefs non-existent deep ball game.
NFC East
6/4 Dallas Cowboys (9-4) at 10/17
Philadelphia Eagles (9-4)
When the Cowboys were heavily favored on Thanksgiving the
Eagles were the play. Romo has had more time to heal, Dallas has broken the 8-8
curse and Murray has rediscovered hard running. The Eagles on the other hand
suffered a demoralizing loss to Seattle and Mark Sanchez displayed his true
quality and we are down to the final three. This time the Cowboys at 6/4 are
the play.
12/5 Washington Redskins (3-10) at
5/14 New York Giants (4-9)
Washington does not have a good team and Colt McCoy is a
liability however neither do the Giants. Normally we would steer clear of this
game but the last 3 weeks of the season are different. If the Redskins were to
start Kirk Cousins and he played well they would win easily. McCoy versus
Manning could go either way with the Giants having a slight advantage but at
12/5 you have to take the Redskins unless Griffin starts.
NFC North
13/4 Minnesota Vikings (6-7) at 2/9
Detroit Lions (9-4)
Last year when the Lions were
fighting for a playoff spot and swooning out of the picture late Matt Cassel
came into Detroit and beat them. While Teddy Bridgewater can’t do what Matt
Cassel can yet he can do the things Teddy Bridgewater can and that is starting
to work. If the Lions show up with their “A” game it will be hard for the
Vikings to win but Detroit has not done so since November 9th and
2-9 is half the odds they should be so it follows that the Vikings are twice
the odds they should be and as such the play.
4/6 New Orleans Saints (5-8) at
13/10 Chicago Bears (5-8)
Even without Brandon Marshall
the Bears have the firepower to keep pace with the Saints in a game with two of
the worst defences but 13/10 is not enough to bet Jay Cutler right now.
5/11 Green Bay Packers (10-3) at 9/5
Buffalo Bills (7-6)
We have been saying for two
years that all the Bills need to contend is an NFL caliber starter but they
still do not have one (not surprising since there are less than 16 in the 32
team league). This game comes down to whether or not Kyle Orton can play lights
out for 60 minutes and the odds are pretty fair in that respect.
Green Bay looked
ripe-for-the-picking on Monday night giving up 41 points to the Falcons however
you had the feeling all game that Rogers would be able to score whatever points
were needed whenever he wanted to. A lot of people feel that the Packers “beat”
New England pretty easily but how many times this year have Matt Patricia, Josh
McDaniels, Brady, Revis and McCourty all made a huge mistake in the same game?
The Packers can be had (they did lose to the Lions)
NFC South
20/21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-11)
at 20/23 Carolina Panthers (4-8-1)
With Newton out, a meaningless game with no attractive
odds.
4/5 Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) at 11/10
Atlanta Falcons (5-8)
The Steelers travel to Atlanta
to take on a Falcons squad that has no trouble scoring points (they just put up
41 against the Packers) but doesn’t seem to do a whole lot of other things
well. The Falcons have no defence, not a handicap in the NFC South where the
other 5-8 team tied for top spot (New Orleans) has no defence either AND is
saddled with Rob Ryan. Troy Polomalu looks like an old man out there, Keisel is
out for the year as the steel curtain is rusted partially open these days so Levian
Bell needs ever one of his couple of hundred yards rushing to make up for it
and even that wasn’t enough against the Saints. The Steelers are just too
in-and-out to trust.
Atlanta is currently tenth in
points scored which would be good were they not ninth in points allowed. Matt
Ryan HAS played lights out a lot this season (sorry Kyle) but it has mostly
gone for nought as is evidenced by their absolute record of 5-8. The problem
here is that the Steelers can score in bunches as well (see Roethlisberger’s
back-to-back six touchdown games recently) so betting on the Falcons is just
too risky.
4/6 New Orleans Saints (5-8) at
13/10 Chicago Bears (5-8)
Even without Brandon Marshall
the Bears have the firepower to keep pace with the Saints in a game with two of
the worst defences but 13/10 is not enough to bet Jay Cutler right now.
19/10 Arizona Cardinals (10-3) at
10/23 St. Louis Rams (6-7)
Drew Stanton may not be much
of a quarterback but he has been winning a lot and 19/10 on the team with the
best record in the league playing a 6-7 divisional rival without a quarterback
is twilight zone material. Arizona is most definitely the play.
7/2 San Francisco 49ers (7-6) at
1/5 Seattle Seahawks (9-4)
Seattle’s collective head is
exploding and overconfidence mixed with conceit is never attractive. Their
offence looks like High School football and should be too touch for a clever DC
to figure out. Wed expect teams to start using their fastest and best tackling special
teamer to “spy” Wilson (or something along those lines) as the solution will
ultimately prove very simple. Look for the 49ers to pound the rock with Gore
and shut down Wilson to make a statement of their own. They are too proud (and
too good) to go down with a whimper and 7/2 amply offsets the risk.
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