A Look Ahead at NFL 2015

With all of the major free agents signings in the books and the improbability of determining which players in the draft will have a major impact as a rookie, by looking at core rosters, coaching staffs and scheduled opponents we have enough information to speculate the shifts to the balance-of-power in 2015. By doing this before the draft we avoid over-hyping rookie additions and probably have the best chance to be accurate prior to the date rosters are set at the end of August.

AFC East

1^st) New England Patriots (14-2)

The champs let Browner and Revis walk leaving a gaping hole in their secondary. Arrington can be good in the right circumstances to help win regular season games but aside from knowing how to use him Belichick has his work cut out here. If Butler makes the leap they could have one solid starter. If Dennard re-surfaces as a solid starter and the new guys are able to do their jobs the Patriot secondary may not be a big liability. It looks like they are amping up the pass rush to help. Expect Belichick to again bring in depth (like Ayers and Casillas last year) in various ways and to do something adequate at defensive tackle to maintain New England at around a top 10 scoring defence.

On offence, the WR and TE corps will be better than last year, Blount will have a 1000 yard season, Travaris Cadet will make everyone forget about Shane Vereen and Jonas Gray can replace Ridley. If Bill was desperate at OG Connolly would already be signed so he doubtless has a plan there.

Overall, last year’s near-top scoring offence will be better while the defence will be different but still serviceable until November when we see Belichicks plan for 2016 start to solidify. A trip to the AFC Championship may be possible and then who knows.

2^nd) Buffalo Bills (10-6)

Finished 9-7 (although 9^th win was a bit of a gift) the Bills most significant upgrade will be Matt Cassel over Kyle Orton however if they don’t fix their offensive line they aren’t going to be a wild card team, They are going to need a solid OLine to set up McCoy and more importantly the play action off McCoy but if Cassel doesn’t get the protection to have time to throw it down the field (his biggest strength) he will make mistakes.

The Bills defence remains solid although letting Alonzo go will hurt them for years to help the right now.

Overall, with a solid offensive line they are a favorite for a wild card. Without it, even if they do get in they will be one and done.

3^rd) New York Jets (8-8)

The Jets improved their secondary by light years to go with a solid front seven and a good defensive coach it Todd Bowles. They are much better at wide receiver and tight end. The too need help with their OLine however it is QB and RB that are their major hurdles. Passing on guys like Hoyer, Cassel, and that crowd and going with Fitzpatrick is a big mistake. If Geno Smith magically transforms into a solid NFL QB the Jets will also get a wild card however that is too big of an if.

Overall, the Jets will be spoilers this year, able to win any given match-up but unable to win consistently.

4^th) Miami Dolphins (8-8)

The Fish round out the NFL’s strongest division. Bringing in Suh combined with their other moves have made them better but New York and Buffalo are also better. The key here is Tannehill. The Dolphins are not going to win with Tannehill.

Overall, another 8-8 season is coming up.

AFC North

1^st) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

The Steelers have the firepower to be a top scoring offence with young players that are only going to get better. The Steeler defence is forecast to improve.

Overall, if the offence continues to evolve while the defence improves marginally the Steelers should repeat as the rest of the division is a bit weaker.

2^nd) Baltimore Ravens (9-7)

Losing some key players like Ngata will take some adjusting which may be tough the first year. Newsome is doing a good job addressing the needs but we expect a slight drop-off from last season.

Overall, their record won’t suffer much due to the weaker teams below them who they play twice.

3^rd) Cincinnati Bengals (7-9)

The window has been closing on the Bengals and the slide continues this season. With Dalton becoming less effective and the defence getting older and slower Cincinnati is a team heading in the wrong direction.

Overall, the Bengals missed the boat and slide back to mediocrity

4th) Cleveland Browns (4-12)

No quarterback, no running back and ultra thin at pass catcher it is hard to see this going well. The defence lost Skrine.

Overall, another year for the Browns to try to develop some young players and get a bunch more high draft picks

AFC South

1^st) Houston Texans (12-4)

The Texans looked great beating Baltimore in the play-off race with Case Keenum and without Clowney. Sub-in Hoyer and put Clowney with Watt for most of the year and a three game shift is not out of the question.

Overall, O’Brien has his team in a much better position to go up against the AFC East than the Colts.

2^nd) Indianapolis Colts (8-8)

Bringing in a running back where there is no OLine is not going to help much. The Colts have done nothing to solidfy against the run and playing the AFC East is going to exacerbate that. Easy wins against Tennessee and Jacksonville only give them 4 after all

Overall, the Colts have been getting killed by the Patriots and could very well go 0-4 against the AFC East. If the Texans have their number 8 wins seems about right.

3^rd) Jacksonville Jaguars

4^th) Tennessee Titans

AFC West

1^st) San Diego Chargers (11-5)

The Chargers started out fast only to be derailed by the injury train. Between getting most of their guys back, an interesting Free Agent haul, the upcoming draft and Phillip Rivers playing out his deal they are going for it this year

Overall, if the team stays healthy, with the anticipated decline of the Broncos and Alex Smith’s limitations this is the best chance the Chargers have had since Manning’s arrival.

2^nd) Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)

The overhauled WR corps will still be catching the ball from Alex Smith. Smith has never been able to carry a team and the Chief’s defence is not dominant enough to carry him.

Overall, Kansas City should be able to parlay the demise of Denver into another Wild Card berth.

3^rd) Denver Broncos (8-8)

Overall, somewhere along the way this year the wheels will fall off Peyton Manning signalling the end of an era. The rest won’t matter.

4^th) Oakland Raiders

It is hard to fathom just what exactly Reggie McKenzie is doing, or perhaps more to the point, what he is not doing. It is no secret that all of the teams must spend up to the floor amount and that the Raiders must spend the most.

Going into 2015, Oakland needed a right guard and a center badly. Center Rodney Hudson at 26 seems to be a very good move but they did nothing at guard. Mike Pollak would have been a $1.444mm hit for the Bengals this year had he not been released and certainly would have been a better pick-up than the nothing that the Raiders did. Mike Iupati, although over-priced, would have been an ideal pick-up for that spot at guard and would have helped them spend some of the required dough. They still can grab Greg Jennings to help Carr's development along. and left them free to take the receiver they covet in the first round of the draft. Christian Ponder could turn out to be the steal in this year’s free agent market. Watching him play in 2013 he seemed poised to transform into a bona fides NFL QB right around the time he was benched permanently. And then at running back, whammo, SOS, same old Raiders. Trent Richardson, a potential steal but almost certainly a waste of time. Without the strength at guard and an upgrade at Right Tackle the Raiders running game will flounder although Roy Helu could be interesting.

On defence, they go out and pay THE worst ILB of the lot - Curtis Lofton - $6.6mm while highly rated Brandon Spikes and even old man Lance Briggs remain unsigned, to go along with Malcolm Smith for $3.75mm who rates almost half as bad as Lofton. Dan Williams will help out at defensive tackle but guys like Dockery & CJ Wilson aren’t going to change anything.

Overall, again the Raiders miss the point. They could have brought in Spikes and Briggs to help turn Mack into a great ILB while providing run stopping depth, shored up the offensive line, brought in Jennings for depth at WR and then used the draft to fill in the holes to field a competitive team. Presumably they are looking for one more year (2016) of high draft picks to make their move.

NFC East

1^st) Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)

Overall, Chip has made a lot of moves however the fate of the offence hinges on Sam Bradford. If he plays the season, the Eagles can contend for the whole enchilada and if he doesn’t Mark Sanchez takes them nowhere slow.

2^nd) Dallas Cowboys (11-5)

Overall, a return to the post season is reliant upon the Cowboys fielding a solid running game. Unless they somehow end up with Peterson, the loss of Murray will cost them the division but not the play-offs provided their feature back is better than McFadden.

3^rd) NY Giants (9-7)

Overall, if Cruz returns to form and Beckham holds his Manning can move forward in year two with McAdoo so long as the offensive line gets someone like Scherff. The NFC East gets the very tough AFC East this year to go with the relatively soft NFC  South and yet with the Packers the only serious team in the NFC North this year, no serious team in the NFC South and the demise of the San Francisco 49ers the NFC East could very well send three teams to the post season if our theory about Seattle proves to be true.

4^th) Washington Redskins (2-12)

NFC North

1^st) Green Bay Packers (14-2)

Overall, the Lions lost the ability to stop the run and weren’t all that great against the pass, Calvin Johnson is a year older and Matthew Stafford has always been mediocre. The Bears are not lame but dead ducks with Cutler and Teddy Bridgewater has never, and may never ever, beaten a team with a winning record so the Packers win by default. If Raji returns to form…..Games against both faltering Western Divisions could make for a top seeding leading to home field and a  super bowl berth.

2^nd) Detroit Lions of Minnesota Vikings or Chicago Bears – It is of no moment

NFC South

1^st) New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta or Tampa – One and done in January

NFC West

1^st) Arizona Cardinals (12-4)

We saw what the Cardinals could do last year without an NFL caliber QB however when Palmer went down the drop-off to the next guy was far too steep for serious consideration. Given the QB’s Arizona passed on this off-season they must be looking at a kid lower down in the draft or thinking more highly of the kid they already have. Assuming Arians has a plan, a futher one game improvemt puts Arizona into first place.

2^nd) St Louis Rams (9-7)

Suddenly, Nick Foles is the best QB in his division surrounded by a very good young team. With Seattle regressing and the 49’ers falling off the map a Wild Card isn’t out-of-the question however a winning record is the more logical choice.

3^rd) Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson is still a young QB who rode a strong defence and a pair of weak schedules to much early success however anyone who watched last year’s NFC Championship and Super Bowl saw an intriquing prospect who still has much to learn and a penchant for bad mistakes at inopportune times. His fifth turnover in that pair of games cost the Seahawks a super bowl they never should have been in after his 4 turnovers in the NFC Championship.

Overall, with more key losses on defence, an ineffective Jimmy Graham when the heat is on and a non-descript WR corps the mediocre Russell Wilson is due to back-slide right out of the post season.

4^th) San Francisco

Overall, a devolving Colin Kaepernick, huge losses on defence, big gaps at WR and an inexperienced coach equal a losing record in the cards.

Play Off Teams 2015

AFC

Top Seed – New England Patriots (14-2)

2^nd Seed – Houston Texans (12-4)

3^rd Seed – Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

4^th Seed – San Diego Chargers (11-5)

Wild Card – Buffalo Bills (10-6)

Wild Card – Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)

NFC

Top Seed – Green Bay Packers (14-2)

2^nd Seed – Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)

3^rd Seed – Arizona Cardinals (12-4)

4^th Seed – New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta or Tampa – One and done in January

Wild Card – Dallas Cowboys (11-5)

Wild Card – NY Giants (9-7)