NFL 2015 Approaching the Quarter Pole – Tuesday Notes

Taking a look at Kaepernick's numbers the last four years it is interesting how they have all fallen off in steps (except for turnovers) but this year he is ranking below career averages for guys like Rex Grossman and Chad Henne as his passer rating dives to near the 70 mark. He still enjoys success running the ball but averaging almost a fumble per game negates that to a large degree. Alex Smith will never be mistaken for Tom Brady or Big Ben, and is in fact borderline NFL-Caliber, nevertheless he was and is more effective than Kaepernick and should still be in San Francisco.

The last time Atlanta played New England (2013) Julio Jones, currently being touted as the league’s hottest WR1,  had 6 catches for 108 however up until the two-minute warning he had been targetted 12 times with only 59 yards to show for it. Although he did beat Talib for 49 yards to get the ball down to the Patriot 13 yard line he was immediately shut down and Atlanta ended up turning it over on downs and losing 30-23. The point here is that Belichick was able to neutralize Jones for the most part (0 TD's) with Aqib Talib getting help from McCourty. 

Shanahan has only gone up against the struggling defences (some with devastating injuries and/or suspensions) of the NFC East so far and with Jacksonville looking like one of the top three defences they face the rest of the way (along with Houston and Carolina) you know that the rest of their schedule is pretty soft. We will have to wait for the post season to get a true read on them. Jones definitely looks good this year but in our mind no one has topped AJ Green’s performance Sunday. Against a Raven’s defence that is supposed to be pretty good, Green looked like a pro playing against high schoolers. Imagine what that guy could do with a proper QB? 

Speaking of proper quarterbacks, everyone keeps on drooling over Aaron Rodgers this year, claiming him to be oh so much better than Tom Brady, but a close look at Monday’s 5 TD performance shows passes of 8 yards, 3 yards, 4 yards, and 4 yards for touchdowns as well as a nice TD pass of 27 yards to James Jones. We wonder if Packers first year OC Edgar Bennett is trying to make Rodgers, and by extension himself, look better than they actually are by taking advantage of Rodgers interception-free run at Lambeau to pad his stats, calling for passes when running back Ed Lacy could have ran them into the end zone with much less risk. On Sunday Legarret Blount ran it in three times and Dion Lewis did once in situations where Brady could have easily converted throws to put up 6 touchdowns. Unlike Green Bay (and Denver the last two seasons) the Patriots don’t care whatsoever about stats. 

If Rodgers keeps it up, sooner or later he will throw a pick in one of those situations and it would be ironic if it cost the Packers a win, which could cost Green Bay home field advantage in the post season, which in the end could deny them a trip to the Super Bowl. It is ironic that exactly that cost the Patriots the game in Green Bay last season. The Packers had been unable to stop Blount all game however with 3:29 left on second and nine at the Packer 20, instead of a draw play Brady lofted it up for Gronk and was almost intercepted. On third and long Capers made a great call sending the house after Brady with Mike Daniels and Mike Neal arriving simultaneously. On the subsequent fourth and eighteen Gotskowski then missed a 47 yarder (he has not missed since) so there was no onside kick attempt and the game was over. More irony, during the same game, Revis gave up the only TD all year that was his fault just before half-time with McCourty taking one step (only) the wrong way resulting in Jordy Nelson scampering into the end zone.

Stephen Gotskowski has not missed an extra point, extended distance and all, since his rookie season of 2006 when he missed exactly once. With the longer distance starting this year, he likely has a record that now will not be broken. Everyone (whoever they are) is saying that this year is going to be different for Andy Dalton with the Bengals off to a 3-0 start. We are pretty sure we heard the same thing last season when Cinci started off 3-0 before getting annihilated by the Patriots in the now famous “On to Cincinnati” (the battlecry after New England was humiliated by Kansas City on MNF Week 4) game the week after the Bengal’s 2014 Bye. In Dallas, no one is blaming Brandon Weedon (yet) for the Cowboys first loss in un-coincidentally his first start despite only three first downs and zero points in the second half. We keep looking at our watch and wondering when Matt Cassel is coming in (actually we don’t have a watch the actually shows the correct time).

Arizona has yet to face a quality team or even a quality defence. It is nice to see Chris Johnson get a chance to play with a team nowhere near as dreadful as the Titans have been nor as poorly coached as the Jets were under Yogi Bear aka Rex Ryan. We can’t wait to see the Denver Broncos games AFTER their Bye Week Seven. They should be 6-0 (unless they trip up in Oakland) when Green Bay comes to town and it gets interesting Week Eight. Tom Brady and the boys visit soon after at which point Brandon LaFell should be back to give New England a vertical threat that cannot just get open but can also catch the ball (unlike Aaron I-can’t-feel-my-hands Dobson) and make the Patriots five-wide attack (LaFell, Amendola, Edleman, Gronk and either Lewis or Chandler) a real test for Denver’s “D”.

Finally, Jacksonville is already down to 7/2 (from almost 9/2 yesterday) while the Rams are 5/2 when they visit Arizona. A two-game parlay pays almost 15/1 for those who want a lot of excitement for a little money. Bet well………………