With Week Three all but in the books (KC still has to visit Lambeau) a clearer picture has emerged at the top but in the middle a vast myriad of possibilities exist which can provide some pretty handsome returns if correctly interpreted. There is no replacement for watching actual games. While the all 22 view has many advantages it can lead to more or less seeing what you want to see and getting mired down in specifics. Take the Jacksonville-New England game for example. On the surface, same old Jaguars, following an encouraging game with a 51-17 blowout loss however we do not believe that to be the case.
This year’s model of the New England Patriots may have them fielding the best defensive unit since the three out of four Super Bowl years. New England had the Steelers down 21-7 and the Bills down 38-13 (the Steelers were a play-off team last year and the Bills just missed at 9-7) when their defence suffered lapses late. In the Jaguar game, after giving up only a FG in the first half while the Patriot defence put on a clinic, midway through the third quarter rising young star Malcolm Butler went for the interception on Hurns and whiffed, giving up a 59 yard TD instead. Apart from that one play, New England held a talented young Jaguar offence to the lone field goal until the end of the game when, with most of the Patriot’s starters resting on the bench, Jacksonville scored a garbage time TD to bring their final tally to 17 points.
Next week, Jacksonville goes to Indianapolis to take on the heavily favored Colts. Here we have a pick that is a classic example of our philosophy. We have never bought into the hype that surrounds Andrew Luck and have noted that he sure seems to have a lot of calls by the officials go his way. Last weekend the Colts were life-and-death to beat Tennessee and were a missed two-point try away from overtime. Tennessee beat Tampa Week One mostly because Winton flopped badly in his debut while Marryoughta did not. Jacksonville ran the ball pretty well in their win over Miami and should have no trouble tearing through the Indianapolis defensive line meanwhile the Jaguars offensive line managed to hold the sack-happy Patriots to a mere two sacks.
The Jaguars could not stop Tom Brady however it may prove that no team can this year. The scary part is that Brady is doing it with only 1 ½ wide receivers (both Edleman and Amendola are so small they don’t count as a full wide receiver) and is only going to get better well LaFell returns for the stretch run and Aaron I-can’t-feel-my-hands Dobson goes back to the bench.
New England Patriots Drives
#
|
Quarter
|
Time
|
LOS
|
Plays
|
Length
|
Yds
|
Result
|
|
1
|
1
|
13:51
|
NWE 36
|
5
|
1:56
|
64
|
Touchdown
|
|
2
|
1
|
7:19
|
NWE 10
|
10
|
4:23
|
62
|
Field Goal
|
|
3
|
2
|
9:32
|
NWE 20
|
14
|
5:50
|
78
|
Field Goal
|
|
4
|
2
|
1:47
|
NWE 43
|
8
|
1:29
|
57
|
Touchdown
|
|
5
|
3
|
15:00
|
NWE 20
|
10
|
4:10
|
52
|
Field Goal
|
|
6
|
3
|
9:51
|
NWE 33
|
1
|
0:47
|
67
|
Touchdown
|
|
7
|
3
|
6:15
|
NWE 20
|
7
|
2:57
|
80
|
Touchdown
|
|
8
|
3
|
1:56
|
JAX 24
|
5
|
1:59
|
24
|
Touchdown
|
|
9
|
4
|
13:18
|
NWE 42
|
17
|
9:47
|
58
|
Touchdown
|
|
10
|
4
|
1:22
|
NWE 20
|
2
|
1:22
|
-2
|
End of Game
|
With the Jaguars at better than 4/1 and getting a consensus 8 ½ points they are a classic long-shot play. Games like these do not come along very often so it behooves you to take advantage of one when it comes your way.
Looking at the AFC South realistically, there is a reason why as we approach the quarter-season mark that all four teams are tied and that is simply because no one of the team stands out above the others. Which segues into playing the odds to win the AFC South. The Colts are an absurd ¼ and make no sense whatever to bet at that price. Next is Houston at 5/1 who has a lot going in their favour except for one massive problem: They don’t have a play-off caliber quarterback under contract. Coming in at 10-1 is Tennessee while Jacksonville is at a massive price of 20/1. As the Jaguars and Titans split last season’s series and Jacksonville won one more game (3-13 vs 2-12) we presume that the price differential is due to the Titans drafting 2015’s second overall pick Marcus Marryoughta.
There being no substitute for experience, 2014’s third overall pick Blake Bortles is a full year ahead of and two years older than young Marcus. If Week Two was the only data available, watching the Titans get manhandled by Cleveland while Jacksonville scored a nice win over Miami would favor the Jaguars by a good margin. Further, we watched Ken Wisenhunt underachieve very badly his last year in Arizona (2012) and were not surprised at all that when Bruce Arians took over the Cardinals started achieving double digit win seasons (2 in a row and 3-0 so far this season). We view Wisenhunt as a significant negative. Billy O’B is on par (most probably) with Gus Bradley in Jacksonville although both still have a lot to prove as the man in charge whereas Chuck Pagano is seemingly at war with Griegson in Indy making the Colt’s situation this season starting to feel a lot like San Francisco did last year.
It is interesting that when the Texans called on Case Keenum to help out last year, old Case went 2-0 out of a tree (literally). When one considers that if Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer were any good they would still be in New England, one wonders why Tom Savage is on the Texan’s roster and Case is on the Rams?
Billy O’B is on par (most probably) with Gus Bradley in Jacksonville although both still have a lot to prove as the man in charge. Chuck Pagano is seemingly at war with Griegson in Indy making the Colt’s situation this season starting to feel a lot like San Francisco did last year. Unless you believe that Ryan Mallett is going to get a lot better between now and Houston’s Week Nine Bye, after which the degree of difficulty of Texan’s schedule skyrockets, taking them at 5/1 doesn’t make too much sense. If you do believe that Mallett can beat the Bengals/Jets/Saints/Bills/Patriots then 5/1 is a great price.
The only bet that makes sense to us is Jacksonville at 20/1 because the reward is so high and because none of the other teams is measurably better than them. Watching Bortles the entire game in New England, he looked neither out-of-place nor intimidated by the Patriots. Last year’s 3-13 season must have taught him patience if nothing else. He did throw an interception at the two minute warning in the first half which Brady made him pay for with a text-book two-minute drill (he only needed one minute 38 seconds to score the touchdown) however Bortles’ bomb to Hurd in the third quarter was a perfect strike down the seam. In addition, getting spanked by the Patriots can often ignite a team to play a much better game next time out. Last week’s victim, Rex Ryan’s Buffalo Bills came out of the gate fast and trounced the Miami Dolphins. Look for the same effect when the Jaguars meet the Colts. If they win, 20/1 will be long gone as people will be force to reconcile themselves to the fact that the Colts are not all that good. BET THE JAGUARS WITH BOTH HANDS RIGHT NOW!
Poor Mark Trestman, a victim of Phil Emery’s incompetence in Chicago, is now stuck with the exact opposite problem running a Baltimore Raven’s offence with an NFL-caliber starting quarterback (which Jay Cutler certainly was not) but no real weapons or running back, except for an over-the-hill Steve Smith (targeted 17 times last Sunday - In contrast, Rob Gronkowski has been targeted 17 or more times exactly once in his entire career, during what was Brady’s worst game over the past few years) who has always been more annoying than good. First round draft pick WR Breshad Perriman has reportedly been practicing but that is a long way from contributing. Sometimes these GM’s like Newsome get too clever for their own good. After watching Jimmy Smith “not cover” AJ Green on Sunday you wonder why is Ozzy paying him over $10 million per season?
Speaking of Phil Emery, what a disaster for the Bears organization. No wonder the matriarch got her knickers in a twist. The guy signs Cutler to perhaps the worst contract in the history of professional sport and cut Julius Peppers, still one of the better pass rushers in the league and a leader on defence now happily plying his craft with rival Green Bay, and tried to replace him with Jared Allen, who’s last season in Minnesota was extremely poor despite his padding of his numbers late in the season at meaningless times of meaningless games. The Bears have obviously decided that they want someone in the 2016 draft and seem content to go 0-16 if they have to. Sending Allen to Carolina AFTER paying him $11.5 million and sticking with Jimmy Clausen at QB doesn’t make any sense otherwise. Presumably Emery did something right while he was demolishing the roster so the Bears may have at least a couple of good prospects do develop.
Former Packer star receivers Greg Jennings and James Jones both hit the market this summer when their former teams, Minnesota and Oakland, decided that they weren’t worth the money any more. Jennings got $4 million from the Dolphins while Jones went back to the Packers at the league minimum and Jones is tearing it up, already almost a quarter of the way to 1000 yards and 16 TD’s while Jennings has 4 catches for 39 yards. Total. No TD’s. While one hopes that Jones has some incentive bonuses it is surprising that the Raiders went with Crabtree over him, that the Giants cut him and that the Patriots failed to sign him. That one may come back to bite New England in February as watching the Packers dismantle the Seahawks and then the Chiefs has them headed to Super Bowl 50.
Greg Jennings on the other hand serves to underline just how far Regis’s brother Joe Philbin is in over his head. As the Jonathan Martin travesty played out last year it became apparent that the guy doesn’t have a clue as to what is going on in his own dressing room, never mind across the league. It is ga good thing for him that NFL franchises are a can’t lose business as it is hard to imagine sharp biz guy owner Ross would put up with what is going down in South Beach if he was losing money. Philbin was just out-coached an out-rageous amount by Yogi Bear, aka Rex Ryan, who is absolutely very far away from being the sharpest knife in the drawer. Twin brother Rob meanwhile hit a new low a week ago Sunday as his Saints defence gave up too many points to Tampa giving Jamesis Winston an actual NFL win which he followed up with a loss to Cam Newton this Sunday. Makes you wonder why Arizona only put up 31 points on them opening weekend.
It didn’t take Brandon Weedon long to lose his first game. He managed to fold up like a card table in the second half allowing the Falcons to come back and then some scoring 22 unanswered points in the second half. It didn’t take Dan Quinn long to figure out how to shut down a one dimensional Cowboy’s offence. We were thinking that we wouldn’t see Matt Cassel until the Patriots game but if Luke McCown (not Josh, the guy in the TV commercials) and the Saints open a big lead in the Big Easy perhaps we will see him in the second half? The Cowboys should also go out and get Cassel’s favorite target from his Viking days, Greg Jennings as above? It’s not like Philbin is actually using him. Chip Kelly’s Eagles are now a win over Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins away from tying Dallas for first place when Weedon does lose to NOrleans.
The Atlanta Falcons may just go on and continue winning when you look at their schedule. In all likelihood they won’t meet a team with a winning record before their Week Twelve matchup with the Vikings, assuming Adrian Peterson can continue to carry them, whereas the Panthers get to play teams like Seattle as the result of their losing record divisional win last season. At this point Atlanta could go 13-3 or even 14-2 without beating a team with a winning record. Arizona could also keep on winning, at least up until their Week Nine Bye as the only play-off team from last season that they meet until then will be a Steelers squad led by Mike Vick, unless Vick too gets hurt. Who knows what happens then?
What happens when the Denver Broncos meet a team with a good quarterback and a decent offence? Alex Smith doesn’t count. Watching Alex face off with Rodgers on MNF was dreadful. He never throws TD’s to his wide receivers (he did hit Maclin for his first in two seasons) because they are too far away. Adrian Peterson comes to the Mile High city this week so we will see if the Bronco run defence is for real. Not that it matters. Kubiak and Phillips will run the thing into the ground all by themselves at some point. A lot like the Cincinnati Bengals. 3-0 is no big deal. Andy Dalton will self-destruct. The only question is when?
All of which brings us back around to the AFC East. Just when you thought it was safe to bet the Jets Fitzpatrick turns the ball over 100 times (3 Interceptions plus a Brandon Marshall moment). You never can tell what might come down………
Speaking of Phil Emery, what a disaster for the Bears organization. No wonder the matriarch got her knickers in a twist. The guy signs Cutler to perhaps the worst contract in the history of professional sport and cut Julius Peppers, still one of the better pass rushers in the league and a leader on defence now happily plying his craft with rival Green Bay, and tried to replace him with Jared Allen, who’s last season in Minnesota was extremely poor despite his padding of his numbers late in the season at meaningless times of meaningless games. The Bears have obviously decided that they want someone in the 2016 draft and seem content to go 0-16 if they have to. Sending Allen to Carolina AFTER paying him $11.5 million and sticking with Jimmy Clausen at QB doesn’t make any sense otherwise. Presumably Emery did something right while he was demolishing the roster so the Bears may have at least a couple of good prospects do develop.
Former Packer star receivers Greg Jennings and James Jones both hit the market this summer when their former teams, Minnesota and Oakland, decided that they weren’t worth the money any more. Jennings got $4 million from the Dolphins while Jones went back to the Packers at the league minimum and Jones is tearing it up, already almost a quarter of the way to 1000 yards and 16 TD’s while Jennings has 4 catches for 39 yards. Total. No TD’s. While one hopes that Jones has some incentive bonuses it is surprising that the Raiders went with Crabtree over him, that the Giants cut him and that the Patriots failed to sign him. That one may come back to bite New England in February as watching the Packers dismantle the Seahawks and then the Chiefs has them headed to Super Bowl 50.
Greg Jennings on the other hand serves to underline just how far Regis’s brother Joe Philbin is in over his head. As the Jonathan Martin travesty played out last year it became apparent that the guy doesn’t have a clue as to what is going on in his own dressing room, never mind across the league. It is ga good thing for him that NFL franchises are a can’t lose business as it is hard to imagine sharp biz guy owner Ross would put up with what is going down in South Beach if he was losing money. Philbin was just out-coached an out-rageous amount by Yogi Bear, aka Rex Ryan, who is absolutely very far away from being the sharpest knife in the drawer. Twin brother Rob meanwhile hit a new low a week ago Sunday as his Saints defence gave up too many points to Tampa giving Jamesis Winston an actual NFL win which he followed up with a loss to Cam Newton this Sunday. Makes you wonder why Arizona only put up 31 points on them opening weekend.
It didn’t take Brandon Weedon long to lose his first game. He managed to fold up like a card table in the second half allowing the Falcons to come back and then some scoring 22 unanswered points in the second half. It didn’t take Dan Quinn long to figure out how to shut down a one dimensional Cowboy’s offence. We were thinking that we wouldn’t see Matt Cassel until the Patriots game but if Luke McCown (not Josh, the guy in the TV commercials) and the Saints open a big lead in the Big Easy perhaps we will see him in the second half? The Cowboys should also go out and get Cassel’s favorite target from his Viking days, Greg Jennings as above? It’s not like Philbin is actually using him. Chip Kelly’s Eagles are now a win over Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins away from tying Dallas for first place when Weedon does lose to NOrleans.
The Atlanta Falcons may just go on and continue winning when you look at their schedule. In all likelihood they won’t meet a team with a winning record before their Week Twelve matchup with the Vikings, assuming Adrian Peterson can continue to carry them, whereas the Panthers get to play teams like Seattle as the result of their losing record divisional win last season. At this point Atlanta could go 13-3 or even 14-2 without beating a team with a winning record. Arizona could also keep on winning, at least up until their Week Nine Bye as the only play-off team from last season that they meet until then will be a Steelers squad led by Mike Vick, unless Vick too gets hurt. Who knows what happens then?
What happens when the Denver Broncos meet a team with a good quarterback and a decent offence? Alex Smith doesn’t count. Watching Alex face off with Rodgers on MNF was dreadful. He never throws TD’s to his wide receivers (he did hit Maclin for his first in two seasons) because they are too far away. Adrian Peterson comes to the Mile High city this week so we will see if the Bronco run defence is for real. Not that it matters. Kubiak and Phillips will run the thing into the ground all by themselves at some point. A lot like the Cincinnati Bengals. 3-0 is no big deal. Andy Dalton will self-destruct. The only question is when?
All of which brings us back around to the AFC East. Just when you thought it was safe to bet the Jets Fitzpatrick turns the ball over 100 times (3 Interceptions plus a Brandon Marshall moment). You never can tell what might come down………
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