A word about Alternate Point Spreads
Alternate Point Spreads are worthwhile for three types of players. The first is those with not a lot of money who like to play parlays. The second is those who want to place a very large bet and can afford to double their stake to offset getting 1/2. The third kind is for wild and crazy guys like the writer. We use Alternate Spreads to enhance our return on Money Line wagers that do not provide a satisfactory return. The example we shall use is our favourite team to watch, the New England Patriots. The days of getting New England at 3/1 on the Money Line are lost in the mists of time, gone forever or at least until Brady and Belichick retire. With Alternate Spreads we can put together a bet that will pay off at 3-1 although this is a little more difficult this week with Green Bay, Cincinnati and Denver all on their Bye Week nevertheless we shall endeavour to construct one for this week For Information Purposes only. Do not bet your home purchase savings account to try and triple it. Any bet involves risk and any parlay involves an unacceptable amount of risk. The sole purpose of this is to show how to increase the enjoyment of watching your favorite team win.
Selection: New England Patriots @ 5/18 for 18 Units
Aggressive Wager
The Dallas Cowboys, a playoff team in 2014, are 31/20 on the money line when they go to meet the Giants in the Meadowlands in a game that really comes down to what you think of Matt Cassel. On top of Dallas’s superior offensive line, defensive line and secondary, Greg Hardy now has an impressive game under his belt and will be joined for the first time by rookie phenom Randy Gregory. It will be interesting to see how many sacks the Cowboys record in the first half and whether Giants DC Steve Spagnuolo's adjustments at halftime do anything to stem Dallas's pass rush as Belichick did the last time the Cowboys played. Dez Bryant really needs one more week and should be saved for the Seattle game. If the Cowboys can run the ball with a fresh-legged Christine Michael it will set-up Matt Cassel’s best weapon: Play Action Passing. We believe that Dallas will win this game by at least a touchdown so long as they make assertive play calls and are willing to take 2 points only for a price of 11/10.
Selection: Dallas Cowboys +2.0 @ 11/10
We are halfway home in our quest for 3/1 at 1.68/1 and turn to another playoff team in 2014, the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are listed at 5/4 when they visit Arrowhead this Sunday based on the probability that Landry Jones will be under center. Giving up a maximum of 20 points (throwing out the New England game) during regulation time so far this season, the Steeler “D” has been playing very well, limiting Phillip Rivers to twenty (20) points and shutting down the Arizona scoring machine by allowing only thirteen (13) points, with both efforts coming over the past two weeks. Last week, after Landry Jones came in with the score 10-6 in the Cardinal’s favor, Pittsburgh scored 19 points while holding Cason Palmer’s YTD top scoring offence to a meagre 3 points. In addition, word out of Pittsburgh is that the players were all bouncing on their feet, happily embracing Jones as their leader for the present. At 1-5, we don’t expect the Chiefs to be doing any dancing at all. Severely shackled by the limitations of QB Alex Smith, Kansas City has been averaging a little over 21 points per game however since losing All-World running back Jamaal Charles we will generously allow them an average of 13.5 points per game. Now that they are also without Maclin, te Steelers can double Travis Kelce leaving Alex Smith to pick from the other pedestrian WR's on the roster, none of which have managed to total 100 yards receiving for the entire year. It is extremely unlikely that Andy Reid has figured out how to deal with the loss of Charles and Maclin and with no significant signings since, that leaves Alex Smith with the burden of carrying the team. As the result, taking the Steelers with 7 points seems like a pretty good bet.
Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers +7.0 @ 1/2
Conservative Wager
There are not a lot of extremely likely winners this week, and with Cincinnati, Green Bay and Denver on their Bye Week, we can make a case in almost every game for the underdog winning (even in the New England game) with Atlanta being the sole exception (Tennessee is destined for the first overall pick this year). Given the situation, we will have to take a lot of points.
While the Atlanta Falcons may or may not be one of the best teams in the league after losing in New Orleans last week to fall to 5-1, the 1-4 Tennessee Titans are certainly one of the league’s worst, if not the very worst, teams in the NFL and are coached by one of the league’s worst, if not the very worst,coaches. This is not a good combination. The forced move to Zach Mettenberger is actually a good thing for Tennessee however, he didn’t win a start for them last year and is probably in over his head here as well. Tennessee will remain a “get right” game for most teams for the foreseeable future so giving them 1.5 points is not much of a gamble.
Selection: Atlanta Falcons -1.5 @ 4/9
Giants vs. Cowboys are generally close games however, we have to admit that Matt Cassel is a bit of a wild card here. We had hoped that by now the Cowboys would have done a deal with Miami to bring in Greg Jennings who has caught five (5) of his past ten (10) touchdowns from Matt dating back to 2013. With zero TD’s and less than 100 yards receiving in the first six (6) games this season, it is not as though the Dolphins are using Jennings despite paying him a very nice $3 million signing bonus. As Cassel has had no chance to work with Dez Bryant yet we seriously doubt we will see the latter play in this spot. For more on the game, see above.
Selection: Dallas Cowboys +8.0 @ 1/2
The Steelers are also getting points this weekend when they visit KC this Sunday where Alex Smith, a severely limited Quarterback, was only able to put up 10 points against the Vikings after losing RB Jamaal Charles for the season. Now that the Steelers don't need to double Maclin (Maclin is out), the Steelers can fill the box to help contain the run in heavy sets as required and take away the shallow routes forcing Smith to go deep to beat them. We cannot see how the Chiefs could outscore the high-powered Steeler offence even with Landry Jones running it. For more on the game, see above.
Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers +7.0 @ 1/2
Ideally, we like to take entirely different teams for the conservative wager than we use in the aggressive wager but, just as in the game itself, sometimes you have to take what is there. Next week, with Buffalo, Jacksonville, Philadelphia and Washington as the teams enjoying their Bye Week, we expect to have a wider variety of options to select.
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