Week Four has usually been good to us. Quite often, the teams we liked Week Three that found a way to lose have turned it around in Week Four and paid a better price because of it. Sunday September 30th, 2001 was actually Week Three nevertheless we won huge backing Tom Brady to win his first start ever in the NFL over Peyton Manning of all people, cashing one $2 six team parlay for over $400 and starting a period of about three and one half years where the Patriots paid too much.
Thursday Night Football
5/7 Baltimore Ravens -2.5 AT 6/5 Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) O/U 43.5
Not sure whether the Ravens are favored because of Roethlisberger’s knee injury or the fact that they need to win to avoid an 0-4 start. Either way is nonsense. Look for the Steelers to rally around Mike Vick (they won with Charlie Batch the last time Ben was hurt) and take advantage of a leaderless Ravens defence.
Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers @ 6/5 - 3 Units/ 6/5 Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 - 3 Units/6
Sunday's Games
2/1 New York Giants (+5.5) AT 5/12 Buffalo Bills (-5.5) O/U 46.5
We wonder how long the public’s honeymoon with Rex Ryan will last? The Bills beat Miami last week, a severely dysfunction franchise at this time led by an out-of-touch Joe Philbin. The Giants meanwhile look much better this season with Eli Manning performing like a top ten QB again. If the Giants are going to the play-offs this season they will need to win as many marginal games like this as they can and 2/1 is a more than fair price.
Selection: New York Giants @ 2/1 - 5 Units/11
7/2 Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.0) AT 1/5 Indianapolis Colts (-9.0) O/U 48
Teams now have the Colts number and are succeeding in taking advantage of their many problem areas as long as they get a fair shake from the officials. The Jaguars 51-17 loss to the Patriots surprisingly had a number of bright spots while Indianapolis was life-and-death to defeat a woeful Tennessee Titans team led by a very raw rookie. We believe that Luck is extremely overrated and that Bortles will turn out to be the better QB of the two and figure that the teams are well matched and pretty much equal at this point. As such we suggest taking advantage of the huge discrepancy in the odds and to bet big. Getting a game like this right can make your season.
Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars @ 7/2 - 20 Units/31
5/2 St. Louis Rams (+7) AT 1/3 Arizona Cardinals (-7) O/U 42.5
The Rams figure to match up well against Carson Palmer and Nick Foles is due to start scoring some points with the Rams however we are afraid of Chris Johnson and the Cardinal’s running game. Todd Gurley could play a prominent role in this one in his second start off the shelf. We do not think that Carson Palmer can keep his undefeated string going and like the Rams any time they are 5/2 or better.
Selection: St. Louis Rams @ 5/2 - 5 Units/ St. Louis Rams (+7) - 5 Units/41
5/19 Green Bay Packers (-8.5) AT 29/10 San Francisco 49ers (+8.5) O/U 48.5
Unless you reckon that Green Bay is going 14-2 or better they are going to lose a few road games and have had their problems in San Fran in the past. We do not believe that the Packer defence has solved their problems against the run either and on the road is where we expect this to show. We like the 49ers to win this one however not too much. Bet small here.
Selection: San Francisco 49ers @ 29/10 - 3 Units/ San Francisco 49ers (+8.5) - 9 Units/47
NYJ @ MIA (London, UK)
With both teams hovering around even money no real play here. Both teams will be wildly inconsistent all season so there needs to be a pretty compelling reason to back either.
No Selection
PHI @ WAS
The Eagles will most probably win this game to even their record at 2-2 however at 10/17 the reward does not equate with the risk. There are other, better games to bet.
No Selection
CAR @ TB
We are almost tempted to break our rule and bet the Panthers at 10/17 as Tampa shold be a much better price than 6/4 nevertheless Pass.
No Selection
OAK @ CHI
The Raiders are favored on the road? When was the last time that happened? It looks like Chicago is gunning for the first overall pick in the draft but you never know. Stick to playing the Raiders at home, at least for now.
No Selection
KC @ CIN
You can’t bet on Alex Smith and you can’t bet on Andy Dalton. Don’t bet on this game.
No Selection
HOU @ ATL
Houston is going to win some games this year. Problem is we don’t know which games as Ryan Mallett is way too unpredictable. Meanwhile, it is hard to believe that Dan Quinn can go 9-0 with a team that went 6-10 last year however Andy Reid did something similar when he took over the Chiefs. The Texans are the team you can bet at 12/5 but we don’t recommend it.
No Selection
CLE @ SD
The Browns just lost at home to the Raiders and now travel to the left coast to take on a Chargers squad that loses (and wins) games in bunches and has already lost two straight. It is too hard to bet Josh McCown and at 5/19 there is no money in betting the Chargers small – Bet them big or not at all – We suggest the latter.
No Selection
MIN @ DEN
Adrian Peterson vs the Bronco’s “D” – Unstoppable force meets immovable object. If Teddy Bridgewater were any good we would take a flyer on the Vikings – But he isn’t so we will pass.
No Selection
Sunday Night Football
DAL @ NO
There is no line on this one yet as the Saints do not know if Brees is starting or not yet. Either way we can neither recommend betting on Brandon Weeden nor recommend betting on the Saints as they have no defence and Rob Ryan is a terrible DC. If Brees starts the Saints will most probably win but even Weeden might beat them if Dallas can score enough in the first half before the wheels for off – Bad game all around
No Selection
Monday Night Football
DET @ SEA
The Lions are winless so far this season and turning that around in Seattle is a dubious prospect. The Lions look destined to have yet another 4-12 season but things are in such disarray in Seattle that we would not recommend betting the Seahawks either. The perfect ending to a week where the favorites appear destined to win way more than half the games – We just don’t know which ones for certain.
No Selection
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